Thursday, December 31, 2009

NFL Week 17 Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com, except for Saints @ Panthers, which is from footballlocks.com.

GameAPRSRSLine
San Francisco 49ers @
St. Louis Rams
49ers
ρ=2.3409
49ers
δ=16.97
49ers
-7
Washington Redskins @
San Diego Chargers
Chargers
ρ=2.0983
Chargers
δ=12.40
Chargers
-4
Chicago Bears @
Detroit Lions
Bears
ρ=2.0352
Bears
δ=10.09
Bears
-3
Kansas City Chiefs @
Denver Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.9725
Broncos
δ=12.66
Broncos
-13
Tennessee Titans @
Seattle Seahawks
Titans
ρ=1.7942
Titans
δ=7.01
Titans
-4½
Indianapolis Colts @
Buffalo Bills
Colts
ρ=1.6145
Colts
δ=12.55
Bills
-7½
New England Patriots @
Houston Texans
Patriots
ρ=1.5457
Patriots
δ=10.78
Texans
-8
Baltimore Ravens @
Oakland Raiders
Ravens
ρ=1.5195
Ravens
δ=19.07
Ravens
-10½
Cincinnati Bengals @
New York Jets
Jets
ρ=1.5094
Jets
δ=3.94
Jets
-10
Atlanta Falcons @
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Falcons
ρ=1.3938
Falcons
δ=10.83
Falcons
-2½
New Orleans Saints @
Carolina Panthers
Saints
ρ=1.2218
Saints
δ=9.41
Panthers
-7
Green Bay Packers @
Arizona Cardinals
Packers
ρ=1.1290
Packers
δ=4.87
Cardinals
-3
New York Giants @
Minnesota Vikings
Vikings
ρ=1.0836
Vikings
δ=3.01
Vikings
-9
Jacksonville Jaguars @
Cleveland Browns
Jaguars
ρ=1.0800
Jaguars
δ=2.89
Browns
-1
Philadelphia Eagles @
Dallas Cowboys
Eagles
ρ=1.0431
Eagles
δ=1.77
Cowboys
-3
Pittsburgh Steelers @
Miami Dolphins
Dolphins
ρ=1.0124
Dolphins
δ=0.17
Steelers
-3

Comments:

  • I've mentioned this before, but it bears repeating: APR and SRS do not take into account teams that have clinched and will be resting starters.

  • A combination of the Patriot's road problems and resting starters means the Texans could have a chance for the franchise's first winning season.

  • The 49ers have a chance to clinch a non-losing season this week, which would be their first since 2002.

  • Thanks to the Vikings loss on MNF, the Saints have clinched the #1 seed. But you would think they would want to avoid going into the playoffs on a 3-game losing streak.

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

NFL Week 16 Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For Week 16

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)New Orleans
Saints
13-25.9120
(LW × 0.993)
lost by 3
vs Buccaneers
2 (↑3)New England
Patriots
10-55.7094
(LW × 1.116)
won by 28
vs Jaguars
3 (↑1)San Diego
Chargers
12-35.5786
(LW × 1.089)
won by 25
at Titans
4 (↑4)New York
Jets
8-75.5151
(LW × 1.333)
won by 14
at Colts
5 (↓2)Philadelphia
Eagles
11-45.4367
(LW × 1.015)
won by 3
vs Broncos
6 (-)Dallas
Cowboys
10-55.2119
(LW × 1.054)
won by 17
at Redskins
7 (↓5)Indianapolis
Colts
14-15.1606
(LW × 0.891)
lost by 14
vs Jets
8 (↑3)Carolina
Panthers
7-84.8388
(LW × 1.222)
won by 32
at Giants
9 (↑8)Atlanta
Falcons
8-74.3306
(LW × 1.210)
won by 28
vs Bills
10 (-)Green Bay
Packers
10-54.3113
(LW × 1.080)
won by 38
vs Seahawks
11 (↓4)Minnesota
Vikings
11-44.0997
(LW × 0.975)
lost by 6
at Bears
12 (-)Denver
Broncos
8-73.8249
(LW × 0.973)
lost by 3
at Eagles
13 (-)Arizona
Cardinals
10-53.8185
(LW × 0.973)
won by 21
vs Rams
14 (↑1)Baltimore
Ravens
8-73.7979
(LW × 1.029)
lost by 3
at Steelers
15 (↓6)New York
Giants
8-73.7834
(LW × 0.929)
lost by 32
vs Panthers
16 (-)Miami
Dolphins
7-83.7384
(LW × 1.013)
lost by 7
vs Texans
17 (↑3)Houston
Texans
8-73.6937
(LW × 1.091)
won by 7
at Dolphins
18 (-)Pittsburgh
Steelers
8-73.6925
(LW × 1.074)
won by 3
vs Ravens
19 (-)Cincinnati
Bengals
10-53.6537
(LW × 1.070)
won by 7
vs Chiefs
20 (↓6)Tennessee
Titans
7-83.4791
(LW × 0.912)
lost by 25
vs Chargers
21 (-)San Francisco
49ers
7-83.2935
(LW × 0.977)
won by 14
vs Lions
22 (-)Buffalo
Bills
5-103.1965
(LW × 1.011)
lost by 28
at Falcons
23 (↑3)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
3-123.1071
(LW × 1.331)
won by 3
at Saints
24 (↓1)Jacksonville
Jaguars
7-82.9003
(LW × 0.960)
lost by 28
at Patriots
25 (↑3)Chicago
Bears
6-92.7670
(LW × 1.334)
won by 6
vs Vikings
26 (↑1)Cleveland
Browns
4-112.6855
(LW × 1.217)
won by 14
vs Raiders
27 (↓3)Washington
Redskins
4-112.6586
(LW × 0.931)
lost by 17
vs Cowboys
28 (↓3)Oakland
Raiders
5-102.4995
(LW × 0.933)
lost by 14
at Browns
29 (-)Seattle
Seahawks
5-101.9391
(LW × 0.944)
lost by 38
at Packers
30 (-)Kansas City
Chiefs
3-121.9391
(LW × 0.967)
lost by 7
at Bengals
31 (-)St. Louis
Rams
1-141.4069
(LW × 0.973)
lost by 21
at Cardinals
32 (-)Detroit
Lions
2-131.3595
(LW × 1.006)
lost by 14
at 49ers

Comments

  • All the NFC playoff teams have been determined, though the precise seeding will not be determined until after next week's games.

  • On the AFC side, only the Titans were eliminated this week, so 7 teams are still alive for the two wildcard spots. The Jets and Ravens are the two teams with "win-and-in" scenarios.

  • The Cardinals have won 10 games in a season for the first time since 1976, when they were still in St. Louis.

  • APR does not take into account when teams rest their players, and so the Colts loss costs them dearly in the standings. They would have taken over the #1 spot with a 7 point win.

  • And the Jets "win" over the previously unbeaten Colts pushes them to even more ridiculous hights. Although with the Saints, Vikings, and Colts all losing, the top is looking a little soft anyway.

  • The Panthers get another big upset win, and climb even higher in the rankings.

  • The Bengals are 1-3 against teams ranked higher than #14 this week. Bengal fans may be well advised to prepare for a quick exit from the playoffs.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Bengals (+12)
Another week, another close game against a bad team for the Bengals. At least they won this time.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Panthers (-11)
The Panthers add another upset win to this year's resumé. Since they stopped turning the ball over on offense, they've looked a lot better.

Jets (-10)
As mentioned above, APR probably giving them too much credit for a win over a Colts team that wasn't trying. On the other hand, they did get a win, which is more than they can say for last week.

Patriots (-8)
The Patriots are another team benefitting from APR's love of big wins. Yeah, they beat out the playoff wannabe Jaguars by 4 touchdowns. But the Patriots are just 2-5 on the road. That's not good for the playoffs, and that's not a top-5 team.

Monday, December 28, 2009

NFL Week 16 Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for week 16.

Unanimous picks (8-5)

Correctly picked:

Rams @ Cardinals
Lions @ 49ers
Seahawks @ Packers
Cowboys @ Redskins
Chiefs @ Bengals
Jaguars @ Patriots
Broncos @ Eagles
Bills @ Falcons

Not so much:

Texans @ Dolphins
In the first half, the Dolphins defense had a major breakdown: the Texans had five drives, and scored on every one of them. The Dolphins were able to shut out the Texans in the second half, but their offense just wasn't able to dig out of the hole the first half had left them in.

Buccaneers @ Saints
Something has gone wrong with the Saints offense. They scored at least 30 points in 8 of their first 13 games, and never less than 24. Now, for the second week in a row, they've only made it to 17 points. That's bad news for a team that's only held their opponents under 17 points 3 times.

Panthers @ Giants
The Giants just failed on both sides of the ball. The Panthers scored on their first four drives. While the Giants didn't score until late in the third quarter, and by then the Panthers had things well in hand.

Jets @ Colts
The Colts started pulling their starters towards the end of the third quarter. Manning's replacement, Curtis Painter, was a one-man disaster: a fumble returned for a TD, an interception, and 4 completions on 11 throws helped give the Jets 19 unanswered points.

Vikings @ Bears
The Vikings' offensive funk continued for the first two quarters of this game. The only first-half drive they had that showed any promise ended in a fumble. The Vikings offense finally got going in the second half, but several long kick returns and a career game by receiver Devin Aromashodu kept the Bears in the game until a critical late fumble recovery gave them the chance to win.

Split Picks (APR 1-2, SRS 1-2, Line 2-1)

Chargers (ARP, SRS) @ Titans (Line)
One of the by-products of the Colts and Saints long unbeaten streaks is that the Chargers have managed to win 10 games in a row and clinch the AFC's #2 seed more or less under the radar. At this point, they've got to be favorites to advance to the AFC Championship game, and perhaps the Super Bowl as well.

Raiders (APR, SRS) @ Browns (Line)
For the second week in a row, Jerome Harrison is a big part of the reason the Browns come up with a win: 148 yards rushing. Throw in three interceptiosn from Charlie Frye, and that's about all it took for the Browns to get their third win in a row.

Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)
The Ravens had 11 penalties for 113 yards. A couple really costly ones was a block in the back on an interception return that nullified a touchdown (the Ravens settled for a field goal), and a holding call that nullified a McGahee touchdown run (the Ravens punted on that drive). Those two alone represent an 11-point swing in favor of the Steelers.

Standings:

This Week Overall%
APR   9-7143-8163.8%
SRS   9-7143-8163.8%
Line  10-6152-7267.9%
Unanimous  8-5116-4572.0%

New power rankings, and Week 17 picks to come.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

NFL Week 16 Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com.

Picks for week 16.

GameAPRSRSLine
St. Louis Rams @
Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=2.7143
Cardinals
δ=17.67
Cardinals
-14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @
New Orleans Saints
Saints
ρ=2.5513
Saints
δ=20.69
Saints
-14
Detroit Lions @
San Francisco 49ers
49ers
ρ=2.4941
49ers
δ=14.90
49ers
-12
Minnesota Vikings @
Chicago Bears
Vikings
ρ=2.0279
Vikings
δ=11.32
Vikings
-7
Seattle Seahawks @
Green Bay Packers
Packers
ρ=1.9427
Packers
δ=11.47
Packers
-14
Dallas Cowboys @
Washington Redskins
Cowboys
ρ=1.7314
Cowboys
δ=9.73
Cowboys
-7
Kansas City Chiefs @
Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.7040
Bengals
δ=12.62
Bengals
-14
Jacksonville Jaguars @
New England Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.6923
Patriots
δ=15.60
Patriots
-7½
New York Jets @
Indianapolis Colts
Colts
ρ=1.4004
Colts
δ=4.82
Colts
-5½
Denver Broncos @
Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.3638
Eagles
δ=5.06
Eagles
-7
San Diego Chargers @
Tennessee Titans
Chargers
ρ=1.3428
Chargers
δ=7.26
Titans
-3
Oakland Raiders @
Cleveland Browns
Raiders
ρ=1.2140
Raiders
δ=0.09
Browns
-2
Buffalo Bills @
Atlanta Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.1326
Falcons
δ=6.32
Falcons
-8
Houston Texans @
Miami Dolphins
Dolphins
ρ=1.0903
Dolphins
δ=0.29
Dolphins
-3
Baltimore Ravens @
Pittsburgh Steelers
Ravens
ρ=1.0739
Ravens
δ=8.14
Steelers
-3
Carolina Panthers @
New York Giants
Giants
ρ=1.0281
Giants
δ=4.52
Giants
-7

Comments:

  • Reports are the Bills will start Brian Brohm at quarterback on Sunday. He's the guy who lost out the backup job in Green Bay, and was demoted to the practice squad at the beginning of the season. Adjust your expectations accordingly.

  • For the third time in four weeks, the Vikings play a prime-time road game against a lesser opponent. Things are sure to get even uglier for Childress and Favre if they can't put together a solid win in this game.

  • There are a number of AFC matchups with playoff implications this week. The Patriots can clinch the AFC North with a win (which would also likely knock the Jaguars out of contention). But the Ravens and Broncos both have tough opponents, which could open the door for one of those 7-7 teams to sneak into a wildcard spot.

  • All three of the NFC wildcard wannabe teams are favored to win this week, although the Giants have the toughest matchup. Next week won't be any easier, when they travel to Minnesota to face a Vikings squad that is sure to be looking for some momentum going into the playoffs.

NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For Week 15

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (↑1)New Orleans
Saints
13-15.9564
(LW × 1.027)
lost by 7
vs Cowboys
2 (↓1)Indianapolis
Colts
14-05.7940
(LW × 0.912)
won by 4
at Jaguars
3 (↑4)Philadelphia
Eagles
10-45.3586
(LW × 1.255)
won by 14
vs 49ers
4 (-)San Diego
Chargers
11-35.1221
(LW × 1.106)
won by 3
vs Bengals
5 (-)New England
Patriots
9-55.1146
(LW × 1.107)
won by 7
at Bills
6 (↑9)Dallas
Cowboys
9-54.9438
(LW × 1.384)
won by 7
at Saints
7 (↓4)Minnesota
Vikings
11-34.2061
(LW × 0.866)
lost by 19
at Panthers
8 (↑3)New York
Jets
7-74.1374
(LW × 1.034)
lost by 3
vs Falcons
9 (↑13)New York
Giants
8-64.0710
(LW × 1.335)
won by 33
at Redskins
10 (↓2)Green Bay
Packers
9-53.9921
(LW × 0.956)
lost by 1
at Steelers
11 (↑12)Carolina
Panthers
6-83.9595
(LW × 1.365)
won by 19
vs Vikings
12 (-)Denver
Broncos
8-63.9291
(LW × 1.029)
lost by 1
vs Raiders
13 (↓7)Arizona
Cardinals
9-53.9255
(LW × 0.882)
won by 7
at Lions
14 (↓5)Tennessee
Titans
7-73.8144
(LW × 0.949)
won by 3
vs Dolphins
15 (↑1)Baltimore
Ravens
8-63.6920
(LW × 1.067)
won by 24
vs Bears
16 (↓2)Miami
Dolphins
7-73.6909
(LW × 1.027)
lost by 3
at Titans
17 (↑4)Atlanta
Falcons
7-73.5796
(LW × 1.168)
won by 3
at Jets
18 (↑1)Pittsburgh
Steelers
7-73.4380
(LW × 1.080)
won by 1
vs Packers
19 (↓2)Cincinnati
Bengals
9-53.4161
(LW × 1.010)
lost by 3
at Chargers
20 (↓7)Houston
Texans
7-73.3854
(LW × 0.887)
won by 3
at Rams
21 (↓11)San Francisco
49ers
6-83.3707
(LW × 0.840)
lost by 14
at Eagles
22 (↓2)Buffalo
Bills
5-93.1606
(LW × 1.011)
lost by 7
vs Patriots
23 (↓5)Jacksonville
Jaguars
7-73.0223
(LW × 0.946)
lost by 4
vs Colts
24 (-)Washington
Redskins
4-102.8554
(LW × 1.056)
lost by 33
vs Giants
25 (↑2)Oakland
Raiders
5-92.6788
(LW × 1.262)
won by 1
at Broncos
26 (↑4)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
2-122.3347
(LW × 1.303)
won by 17
at Seahawks
27 (↑2)Cleveland
Browns
3-112.2065
(LW × 1.151)
won by 7
at Chiefs
28 (↓2)Chicago
Bears
5-92.0742
(LW × 0.930)
lost by 24
at Ravens
29 (↓4)Seattle
Seahawks
5-92.0549
(LW × 0.838)
lost by 17
vs Buccaneers
30 (↓2)Kansas City
Chiefs
3-112.0048
(LW × 1.011)
lost by 7
vs Browns
31 (-)St. Louis
Rams
1-131.4462
(LW × 0.971)
lost by 3
vs Texans
32 (-)Detroit
Lions
2-121.3515
(LW × 1.009)
lost by 7
vs Cardinals

Comments

  • In spite of their loss, the Saints actually gain in power this week, thanks in part to three upset wins by the other NFC South teams.

  • The Colts, on the other hand, get no help from the teams they've beaten to help balance out their close win over the mid-level Jaguars.

  • The Cowboys still have a couple tough division games left, but for the first time since mid-November, they had a solid win over a quality opponent.

  • The Cowboys jump in the rankings also indirectly makes the Giants look better, and so they jump from the back of the tightly-clustered middle group to the front.

  • Somehow the AFC playoff race is even tighter than before. Six 7-7 teams are all just a game behind the two would-be wildcard teams, and two division titles are still open.

  • The Titans have now won more games than any other team to start 0-6 since 1978. And they're still alive for a wildcard spot, although their tie-breaker status puts them behind four of the other wanna-be teams.

  • The Rams are now the only remaining team without at least two wins. Given their remaining schedule (at Cardinals, vs 49ers), they are likely to stay that way. I wonder if Ndamukong Suh likes St. Louis?

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Bengals (+12)
Everything I said in this spot about the Bengals last week still applies, except that they are now 2-3 in their last 5. (Of course, the same things also apply to the Giants, but they got a big boost from the win-happy APR.)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Jets (-11)
More evidence, I think, that the current configuration of APR is giving too much weight to wins, and not enough to losses. The Jets are nowhere near a top-10 team at this point.

Panthers (-10)
The Panthers are benefitting from the same halo effect, but at least they got a win this week. Giving the Vikings just their third loss of the season is worth something.

Monday, December 21, 2009

NFL Week 15 Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for week 15.

Unanimous picks (8-5)

Correctly picked:

Cardinals @ Lions
Texans @ Rams
Colts @ Jaguars
Bears @ Ravens
Patriots @ Bills
Bengals @ Chargers
Giants @ Redkskins
49ers @ Eagles

Not so much:

Cowboys @ Saints
The Cowboys defense came up big in this game. Besides holding the Saints to just 3 points for four quarters, they came up with an interception, 4 sacks, and 2 fumble recoveries (the last one ending the Saints come-back attempt).

Raiders @ Broncos
It used to be rushing was always the big weakness of the Broncos defense. And Sunday, it was again. Even the Raiders can get a win when you give them 241 yards rushing.

Vikings @ Panthers
The Vikings offense really never came close to sustaining a drive in this game. Their missed field goal and one touchdown both came on a short fields. And by fourth quarter, the Vikings defense was worn down enough that they started giving up score after score. After their second flop in three weeks, the Vikings have to be feeling a little apprehensive about the playoffs.

Buccaneers @ Seahawks
The Seahawks offense just couldn't move the ball all game long, even when they weren't giving the ball away. Matt Hasselbeck's first two interceptions gave the Buccaneers short fields for their first field goal and touchdown. A short punt and bad coverage gave the Buccaneers another short field for their second touchdown, and by then they were actually in control of the game.

Falcons @ Jets
Three failed field goal attemps (one botched snap, one missed, and one blocked) add up to 9 lost points for the Jets. The Jets offense didn't exactly light things up in this game, but they did get into field goal range three times, and that should've been enough to win the game.

Split Picks (APR 1-2, SRS 1-2, Line 2-1)

Packers (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)
How exactly do you give up 503 yards passing to Ben Roethlisberger? That's really the game, right there.

Dolphins (SRS) @ Titans (APR, Line)
The Dolphins very nearly did it. But interceptions, and a final critical 15 yard roughness penalty cost them the game.

Browns (SRS) @ Chiefs (APR, Line)
Two kick return touchdowns by Josh Cribbs certainly didn't hurt. The fact that the Chiefs couldn't stop Jerome Harrison (286 yards rushing, 3 TD) made a big difference too.

Standings:

This Week Overall%
APR   9-7134-7464.4%
SRS   9-7134-7464.4%
Line  10-6142-6668.3%
Unanimous  8-5108-4073.0%

New power rankings, and Week 16 picks to come.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

NFL Week 15 Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com.

GameAPRSRSLine
Arizona Cardinals @
Detroit Lions
Cardinals
ρ=3.3245
Cardinals
δ=17.26
Cardinals
-11½
Houston Texans @
St. Louis Rams
Texans
ρ=2.5622
Texans
δ=19.48
Texans
-12½
Indianapolis Colts @
Jacksonville Jaguars
Colts
ρ=1.9888
Colts
δ=16.15
Colts
-3
Oakland Raiders @
Denver Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.7992
Broncos
δ=14.54
Broncos
-14
Minnesota Vikings @
Carolina Panthers
Vikings
ρ=1.6752
Vikings
δ=10.99
Vikings
-9
Dallas Cowboys @
New Orleans Saints
Saints
ρ=1.6240
Saints
δ=9.75
Saints
-7
Chicago Bears @
Baltimore Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.5513
Ravens
δ=12.51
Ravens
-10
New England Patriots @
Buffalo Bills
Patriots
ρ=1.4786
Patriots
δ=15.51
Patriots
-7
Cincinnati Bengals @
San Diego Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.3694
Chargers
δ=3.43
Chargers
-6½
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @
Seattle Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.3677
Seahawks
δ=4.58
Seahawks
-7
Green Bay Packers @
Pittsburgh Steelers
Packers
ρ=1.3106
Packers
δ=4.39
Steelers
-1
Atlanta Falcons @
New York Jets
Jets
ρ=1.3057
Jets
δ=3.32
Jets
-6
New York Giants @
Washington Redskins
Giants
ρ=1.1274
Giants
δ=5.26
Giants
-3
Miami Dolphins @
Tennessee Titans
Titans
ρ=1.1177
Dolphins
δ=2.63
Titans
-4
San Francisco 49ers @
Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.0645
Eagles
δ=4.19
Eagles
-9
Cleveland Browns @
Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs
ρ=1.0336
Browns
δ=0.04
Chiefs
-2

Comments:

  • The Raiders have signed J.P. Losman. It looks like its either him or Charlie Frye to start at the Broncos on Sunday. Either way, it's hard to imagine it will be worse than JaMarcus Russell's second-half outing against the Redskins.

  • The Bronocs really need to take care of business this week, to stay at the top of that long list of AFC wildcard contenders, and to keep the pressure on the Chargers.

  • The Jaguars currently win a 4-way tie to hold the AFC's #6 seed. But with the Colts this week and the Patriots next, they're going to have to work to stay at the head of that long list of contenders.

  • I suppose SNF is keeping Vikings @ Panthers so they can feature the media's favorite 40-year-old quarterback again. I wonder how happy they're going to be when the Vikings are ahead 3 scores by halftime, and everyone turns away. (Of course, I thought the same thing when they had Vikings at Cardinals...)

  • The sports books aren't real sure about Packers @ Steelers. At this writing, one actually has Packers -1, but four others favor the Steelers, so that's what is listed above.

NFL Week 14 Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For Week 13

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (↑1)Indianapolis
Colts
13-06.3555
(LW × 1.103)
won by 12
vs Broncos
2 (↓1)New Orleans
Saints
13-05.8007
(LW × 0.967)
won by 3
at Falcons
3 (↑4)Minnesota
Vikings
11-24.8576
(LW × 1.149)
won by 20
vs Bengals
4 (↓1)San Diego
Chargers
10-34.6330
(LW × 0.958)
won by 3
at Cowboys
5 (-)New England
Patriots
8-54.6201
(LW × 1.029)
won by 10
vs Panthers
6 (↓2)Arizona
Cardinals
8-54.4512
(LW × 0.932)
lost by 15
at 49ers
7 (↑1)Philadelphia
Eagles
9-44.2701
(LW × 1.039)
won by 7
at Giants
8 (↑3)Green Bay
Packers
9-44.1737
(LW × 1.071)
won by 7
at Bears
9 (↑3)Tennessee
Titans
6-74.0181
(LW × 1.036)
won by 40
vs Rams
10 (↑11)San Francisco
49ers
6-74.0116
(LW × 1.317)
won by 15
vs Cardinals
11 (↓2)New York
Jets
7-64.0030
(LW × 1.015)
won by 23
at Buccaneers
12 (↓6)Denver
Broncos
8-53.8184
(LW × 0.874)
lost by 12
at Colts
13 (↑5)Houston
Texans
6-73.8170
(LW × 1.108)
won by 27
vs Seahawks
14 (↑2)Miami
Dolphins
7-63.5950
(LW × 1.035)
won by 4
at Jaguars
15 (↓5)Dallas
Cowboys
8-53.5719
(LW × 0.917)
lost by 3
vs Chargers
16 (↑1)Baltimore
Ravens
7-63.4596
(LW × 1.002)
won by 45
vs Lions
17 (↓4)Cincinnati
Bengals
9-43.3832
(LW × 0.943)
lost by 20
at Vikings
18 (↑1)Jacksonville
Jaguars
7-63.1957
(LW × 0.987)
lost by 4
vs Dolphins
19 (↓5)Pittsburgh
Steelers
6-73.1846
(LW × 0.894)
lost by 7
at Browns
20 (↑2)Buffalo
Bills
5-83.1247
(LW × 1.039)
won by 6
at Chiefs
21 (↑2)Atlanta
Falcons
6-73.0658
(LW × 1.040)
lost by 3
vs Saints
22 (↓7)New York
Giants
7-63.0486
(LW × 0.875)
lost by 7
vs Eagles
23 (↓3)Carolina
Panthers
5-82.8997
(LW × 0.929)
lost by 10
at Patriots
24 (↑2)Washington
Redskins
4-92.7042
(LW × 1.104)
won by 21
at Raiders
25 (↓1)Seattle
Seahawks
5-82.4509
(LW × 0.986)
lost by 27
at Texans
26 (↑2)Chicago
Bears
5-82.2302
(LW × 1.021)
lost by 7
vs Packers
27 (↓2)Oakland
Raiders
4-92.1223
(LW × 0.855)
lost by 21
vs Redskins
28 (↓1)Kansas City
Chiefs
3-101.9820
(LW × 0.882)
lost by 6
vs Bills
29 (↑2)Cleveland
Browns
2-111.9176
(LW × 1.389)
won by 7
vs Steelers
30 (↓1)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
1-121.7919
(LW × 0.961)
lost by 23
vs Jets
31 (↓1)St. Louis
Rams
1-121.4898
(LW × 0.985)
lost by 40
at Titans
32 (-)Detroit
Lions
2-111.3389
(LW × 1.041)
lost by 45
at Ravens

Comments

  • You can see the current playoff picture here, and current playoff scenarios here.

  • The Saints' string of close wins against lesser opponents has finally cost them the top spot.

  • The Cowoboys' problems go back farther than December 1st. They haven't had a win over a good team since they beat the Eagles November 11th. Since then, they've only beaten the Raiders and Redskins.

  • Suddenly the 49ers are a top 10 team? Clearly APR needs more tweaking; wins are getting too much weight compared to losses (also note the Texans up in spite of being 1-4 in last 5).

  • The Cardinals' lost a golden opportunity to clinch the NFC West this week, and in the process gave the 49ers the head-to-head tie breaker. The good news (for the Cardinals) is the 49ers (whose sole road win came week 1 at the Cardinals) must travel to Philadelphia to play the Eagles next week. If the Cardinals take care of business at the Lions, they could still clinch the division next week.

  • The NFC wildcard race could easily come down to the final week of the season. The Cardinals shouldn't assume the Packers won't have anything to play for when they meet in Glendale for their regular season-ending matchup.

  • With the Broncos and Jaguars both losing this week, the AFC playoffs are even more wide-open than last week. There are seven teams within a game (and the right tie-breakers) of the final wildcard spot.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Bengals (+10)
The Benagls are just 2-2 in their last four, including a 10 point win over the same Lions that got blown out 3-48 Sunday. The Bengals' offense is just too anemic for that team to be in the top 10.

Giants (+8)
The Giants haven't beaten a high-ranked team except for the Cowboys, and even that's looking iffy these days.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

49ers (-11)
As mentioned above, I think ARP has the 49ers ranked too high. Still, I think the 49ers have shown potential this season. But they need to win on the road, and outside the division.

Titans (-8)
Maybe they're ranked too high. And they have been taking advantage of weaker teams in the league. But the Titans are now on a 6-1 streak, and that's gotta be worth something.

Monday, December 14, 2009

NFL Week 14 Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for week 14.

Unanimous picks (10-2)

Correctly picked:

Lions @ Ravens
Rams @ Titans
Jets @ Buccaneers
Saints @ Falcons
Packers @ Bears
Panthers @ Patriots
Seahawks @ Texans
Bills @ Chiefs
Broncos @ Colts
Bengals @ Vikings

Not so much:

Steelers @ Browns
You can't blame the Steelers defense for this one. The Browns only had one drive longer than 36 yards, and they were shut out in the second half. But the offense never got going. Roethlisberger was sacked eight times (remarkable for a defense that had 24 sacks through 12 games).

Cardinals @ 49ers
Well, that was ugly. Two interceptions. Five lost fumbles. I wish I could say it's the Cardinals' worst loss in a long time, but you only need to look back to week 8 to find an example of the Cardinals hemorrhaging turnovers, and losing to a team well out of the playoffs as a result.

Split Picks (APR 3-1, SRS 4-0, Line 1-3)

Chargers (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)
Another missed field goal comes up big for the Cowboys. But their defense needs to take a big piece of the blame. After the offense drove 99 yards for a tying touchdown, the defense desperately needed a stop to give the offense a chance for a go-ahead score. Instead, the Chargers had two long drives, scored 10 points, and put the game out of reach.

Eagles (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)
The Giants certainly had their chances in this game. But lost fumbles were the back-breaker. One returned for a touchdown, another essentially nullifying McNabb's one interception, and another snuffed out their last hope of a tying score.

Dolphins (APR, SRS) @ Jaguars (Line)
Another case where the Jaguars struggle when Maurice Jones-Drew can't get going, and David Garrard couldn't pick up the slack.

Redskins (SRS, Line) @ Raiders (APR)
There can't be much doubt any more that JaMarcus Russell is just not the answer for the Raiders at quarterback. The Raiders gained just 19 yards on offense on six drives when he was in. That's not even acceptable for a backup.

Standings:

This Week Overall%
APR  13-3125-6765.1%
SRS  14-2125-6765.1%
Line  11-5132-6068.8%
Unanimous 10-2100-3574.1%

New power rankings, and Week 15 picks to come.

NCAA: Bowl Game Picks 2009

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com, and are for comparison purposes only.

GameAPRSRSLine
Michigan-St (49) @
Texas-Tech (4)
Texas-Tech
ρ=1.9007
Texas-Tech
δ=15.61
Texas-Tech
-7
Fresno-St (65) @
Wyoming (98)
Fresno-St
ρ=1.6771
Fresno-St
δ=12.84
Fresno-St
-10½
Nevada (39) @
SMU (76)
Nevada
ρ=1.5880
Nevada
δ=16.08
Nevada
-14
Arkansas (6) @
East-Carolina (40)
Arkansas
ρ=1.5849
Arkansas
δ=13.17
Arkansas
-8
Northwestern (58) @
Auburn (23)
Auburn
ρ=1.5287
Auburn
δ=14.54
Auburn
-7½
Navy (63) @
Missouri (32)
Missouri
ρ=1.4589
Missouri
δ=4.67
Missouri
-6
Bowling-Green (70) @
Idaho (91)
Bowling-Green
ρ=1.4312
Bowling-Green
δ=4.54
Idaho
-1
Florida (3) @
Cincinnati (15)
Florida
ρ=1.3508
Florida
δ=9.93
Florida
-10
West-Virginia (25) @
Florida-St (45)
West-Virginia
ρ=1.3185
West-Virginia
δ=4.37
West-Virginia
-3
Virginia-Tech (7) @
Tennessee (26)
Virginia-Tech
ρ=1.3179
Virginia-Tech
δ=7.54
Virginia-Tech
-4½
Boston-Coll (53) @
USC (34)
USC
ρ=1.2972
USC
δ=5.84
USC
-9
Houston (37) @
Air-Force (59)
Houston
ρ=1.2938
Houston
δ=2.57
Houston
-4½
Oklahoma (5) @
Stanford (19)
Oklahoma
ρ=1.2834
Oklahoma
δ=10.30
Oklahoma
-9½
Arizona (35) @
Nebraska (16)
Nebraska
ρ=1.2726
Nebraska
δ=6.39
Arizona
-1
Kentucky (43) @
Clemson (29)
Clemson
ρ=1.2216
Clemson
δ=6.76
Clemson
-7
South-Florida (68) @
Northern-Illinois (81)
South-Florida
ρ=1.2057
South-Florida
δ=1.05
South-Florida
-6½
Miami-FL (18) @
Wisconsin (30)
Miami-FL
ρ=1.1880
Miami-FL
δ=5.82
Miami-FL
-3
Oregon-St (22) @
BYU (36)
Oregon-St
ρ=1.1871
Oregon-St
δ=1.03
Oregon-St
-2
Ohio (55) @
Marshall (72)
Ohio
ρ=1.1761
Ohio
δ=5.43
Ohio
-2
Oklahoma-St (20) @
Mississippi (12)
Mississippi
ρ=1.1462
Mississippi
δ=0.63
Mississippi
-3
Cent-Michigan (38) @
Troy (47)
Cent-Michigan
ρ=1.1462
Cent-Michigan
δ=12.83
Cent-Michigan
-4
Penn-St (11) @
LSU (17)
Penn-St
ρ=1.1440
Penn-St
δ=1.18
Penn-St
-3
Iowa (21) @
Georgia-Tech (13)
Georgia-Tech
ρ=1.1299
Georgia-Tech
δ=5.65
Georgia-Tech
-4
Boise-St (14) @
TCU (8)
TCU
ρ=1.1144
TCU
δ=6.35
TCU
-7
Minnesota (64) @
Iowa-St (71)
Minnesota
ρ=1.0758
Minnesota
δ=2.42
Minnesota
-2½
Texas-A&M (27) @
Georgia (31)
Texas-A&M
ρ=1.0737
Georgia
δ=3.55
Georgia
-7
UCLA (61) @
Temple (56)
Temple
ρ=1.0735
UCLA
δ=4.57
UCLA
-4
Utah (50) @
California (44)
California
ρ=1.0590
Utah
δ=2.67
California
-3
Texas (2) @
Alabama (1)
Alabama
ρ=1.0509
Texas
δ=1.93
Alabama
-5
Pittsburgh (24) @
North-Carolina (28)
Pittsburgh
ρ=1.0402
Pittsburgh
δ=4.41
Pittsburgh
-3
UCF (52) @
Rutgers (48)
Rutgers
ρ=1.0394
UCF
δ=0.33
Rutgers
-2½
Southern-Miss (60) @
Middle-Tenn-St (66)
Southern-Miss
ρ=1.0281
Southern-Miss
δ=1.89
Southern-Miss
-3½
South-Carolina (41) @
Connecticut (42)
South-Carolina
ρ=1.0176
South-Carolina
δ=0.51
South-Carolina
-4½
Ohio-St (10) @
Oregon (9)
Oregon
ρ=1.0012
Oregon
δ=1.80
Oregon
-3½

Comments:

  • The number in parentheses after the team names represents APR's end-of-season ranking.

  • Only 7 disagreements. Last year, SRS was the big winner on bowl picks. This year I'm using a modified version of APR, which might account for more of the APR/SRS agreement.

  • Mississippi State (#33) and Washington (#46) are the highest-ranked teams not listed above, but neither are bowl-eligible.

  • Highest ranked eligible teams not invited to a bowl: Notre Dame (#51) and Kansas State (#54).

  • Lowest ranked teams invited to a bowl: Idaho (#91) and Wyoming (#98).

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

NFL Week 14 Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com.

Picks for week 14.

GameAPRSRSLine
Detroit Lions @
Baltimore Ravens
Ravens
ρ=2.6834
Ravens
δ=18.25
Ravens
-13
Pittsburgh Steelers @
Cleveland Browns
Steelers
ρ=2.5810
Steelers
δ=13.41
Steelers
-10
St. Louis Rams @
Tennessee Titans
Titans
ρ=2.5627
Titans
δ=10.30
Titans
-13
New York Jets @
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jets
ρ=2.1172
Jets
δ=13.54
Jets
-4½
New Orleans Saints @
Atlanta Falcons
Saints
ρ=2.0351
Saints
δ=12.70
Saints
-10½
Green Bay Packers @
Chicago Bears
Packers
ρ=1.7838
Packers
δ=9.05
Packers
-3
Arizona Cardinals @
San Francisco 49ers
Cardinals
ρ=1.5681
Cardinals
δ=3.35
Cardinals
-3½
Carolina Panthers @
New England Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.4382
Patriots
δ=14.34
Patriots
-13½
Seattle Seahawks @
Houston Texans
Texans
ρ=1.3860
Texans
δ=4.37
Texans
-6
Buffalo Bills @
Kansas City Chiefs
Bills
ρ=1.3378
Bills
δ=5.53
Bills
-1
Denver Broncos @
Indianapolis Colts
Colts
ρ=1.3188
Colts
δ=6.98
Colts
-7
San Diego Chargers @
Dallas Cowboys
Chargers
ρ=1.2416
Chargers
δ=2.23
Cowboys
-3
Philadelphia Eagles @
New York Giants
Eagles
ρ=1.1803
Eagles
δ=3.94
Giants
-1
Cincinnati Bengals @
Minnesota Vikings
Vikings
ρ=1.1783
Vikings
δ=4.10
Vikings
-6½
Miami Dolphins @
Jacksonville Jaguars
Dolphins
ρ=1.0725
Dolphins
δ=7.29
Jaguars
-3
Washington Redskins @
Oakland Raiders
Raiders
ρ=1.0129
Redskins
δ=6.08
Redskins
-1

Comments:

  • The Patriots may need to win out to maintain their hold on the division. Their remaining schedule isn't that hard, but if Brady is hurt, it could still be tough sledding, especially for a team still looking for their second road win.

  • The Falcons are perilously close to continuing their streak of never having consecutive winning seasons. They need at least 3 more wins to total 9 for the season, and any hope for that has to include getting Matt Ryan back on the field.

  • Right now, the NFC's 6th-highest team in the standings is the 8-4 Packers. As a result, it will likely take at least 10 wins to get an NFC wildcard spot this year, which means all those 5-7 teams are already done, and just don't know it yet.

  • The AFC wildcard race is much more wide-open, with 7-5 Jacksonville currently in the 6th slot, and four 6-6 teams just one game behind.

  • The Colts haven't lost to the Broncos in a meaningful game (for the Colts) since 1993.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

NFL Week 13 Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For Week 13

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)New Orleans
Saints
12-06.0014
(LW × 0.954)
won by 3
at Redskins
2 (-)Indianapolis
Colts
12-05.7603
(LW × 1.001)
won by 10
vs Titans
3 (↑1)San Diego
Chargers
9-34.8386
(LW × 1.005)
won by 7
at Browns
4 (↑8)Arizona
Cardinals
8-44.7781
(LW × 1.252)
won by 13
vs Vikings
5 (↓2)New England
Patriots
7-54.4899
(LW × 0.921)
lost by 1
at Dolphins
6 (↑1)Denver
Broncos
8-44.3678
(LW × 1.084)
won by 31
at Chiefs
7 (↓2)Minnesota
Vikings
10-24.2278
(LW × 0.955)
lost by 13
at Cardinals
8 (↑7)Philadelphia
Eagles
8-44.1108
(LW × 1.220)
won by 27
at Falcons
9 (↑5)New York
Jets
6-63.9457
(LW × 1.082)
won by 6
at Bills
10 (-)Dallas
Cowboys
8-43.8970
(LW × 0.986)
lost by 7
at Giants
11 (↑5)Green Bay
Packers
8-43.8966
(LW × 1.173)
won by 13
vs Ravens
12 (↓6)Tennessee
Titans
5-73.8770
(LW × 0.950)
lost by 10
at Colts
13 (↓4)Cincinnati
Bengals
9-33.5880
(LW × 0.905)
won by 10
vs Lions
14 (↓6)Pittsburgh
Steelers
6-63.5641
(LW × 0.898)
lost by 3
vs Raiders
15 (↑8)New York
Giants
7-53.4829
(LW × 1.212)
won by 7
vs Cowboys
16 (↑5)Miami
Dolphins
6-63.4730
(LW × 1.120)
won by 1
vs Patriots
17 (↓6)Baltimore
Ravens
6-63.4512
(LW × 0.886)
lost by 13
at Packers
18 (↓5)Houston
Texans
5-73.4444
(LW × 0.917)
lost by 5
at Jaguars
19 (↓1)Jacksonville
Jaguars
7-53.2381
(LW × 1.031)
won by 5
vs Texans
20 (↑2)Carolina
Panthers
5-73.1218
(LW × 1.082)
won by 10
vs Buccaneers
21 (↓4)San Francisco
49ers
5-73.0471
(LW × 0.955)
lost by 3
at Seahawks
22 (↓2)Buffalo
Bills
4-83.0073
(LW × 0.969)
lost by 6
vs Jets
23 (↓4)Atlanta
Falcons
6-62.9489
(LW × 0.944)
lost by 27
vs Eagles
24 (↑1)Seattle
Seahawks
5-72.4851
(LW × 1.117)
won by 3
vs 49ers
25 (↑2)Oakland
Raiders
4-82.4813
(LW × 1.186)
won by 3
at Steelers
26 (-)Washington
Redskins
3-92.4497
(LW × 1.116)
lost by 3
vs Saints
27 (↓3)Kansas City
Chiefs
3-92.2479
(LW × 0.958)
lost by 31
vs Broncos
28 (-)Chicago
Bears
5-72.1845
(LW × 1.061)
won by 8
vs Rams
29 (-)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
1-111.8637
(LW × 1.012)
lost by 10
at Panthers
30 (-)St. Louis
Rams
1-111.5128
(LW × 0.977)
lost by 8
at Bears
31 (-)Cleveland
Browns
1-111.3809
(LW × 0.999)
lost by 7
vs Chargers
32 (-)Detroit
Lions
2-101.2861
(LW × 1.049)
lost by 10
at Bengals

Comments

  • You can see the current playoff picture here, and current playoff scenarios here.

  • After their dominating win over the Vikings, the Cardinals have a well-deserved spot in the top 5.

  • ...and the Chargers are at #3? Well, they are on a 7 game winning streak, which includes games against the Giants, Eagles, and Broncos.

  • And with the Broncos at 8-4, and even the Raiders getting some surprising upsets, it could be that the AFC West is no longer one of the worst divisions in the NFL anymore.

  • The Patriots are 1-3 in their last 4, and just a game ahead of the 6-6 Dolphins and Jets. The battle for the AFC East could very well go down to Week 17.

  • The Cowboys are another struggling division leader with two very close contenders. They've got four tough games left, and (given their poor tie-breaker situation) could actually drop out of the playoffs all together.

  • The Packers are knocking on the door of the top 10, and this time it actually seems like they are worth a high rank. It's no coincidence that their 4-game winning streak and much better protection for Aaron Rodgers have come along at the same time.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Bengals (+8)
The Bengals just don't feel like a top-5 team to me. They lost to the Raiders, and then posted unremarkable wins over two of the worst teams in the league. Their lack of offensive production is going to cost them when they play the better teams on their schedule.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Jets (-10)
APR probably hs the Jets ranked too high at #9. But they have won a couple games in a row, along with 4 close losses. As long as Sanchez stays healthy (slide, Mark, slide!), they could actually have a chance to contend for the AFC East.

Monday, December 7, 2009

NFL Week 13 Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for week 13.

Unanimous picks (9-5)

Correctly picked:

Chargers @ Browns
Lions @ Bengals
Saints @ Redskins
Broncos @ Chiefs
Buccaneers @ Panthers
Titans @ Colts
Rams @ Bears
Jets @ Bills
Eagles @ Falcons

Not so much:

Patriots @ Dolphins
Tom Brady is hurt, and that's bad, bad news for the Patriots. They haven't won a game this season without scoring at least 25 points. They're still looking for their second road win, too.

49ers @ Seahawks
The 49ers are another team with offensive troubles. They've scored 21 or fewer points in 7 games this season. You've got to have a really good defense to win games like that, and the 49ers are mostly not playing at that level.

Cowboys @ Giants
The Cowboys had some awful miscues on special teams: two missed field goals and a punt return for a touchdown. And when they did get a break by intercepting Eli Manning, they couldn't do anything with it. The Cowboys had their chances to win this game, they just couldn't capitalize on them.

Vikings @ Cardinals
I'm not quite sure what to make of this game. Easily the best game I've seen the Cardinals play, ever. And for the first time this season, Favre just couldn't find his receivers. I think this game exposes the Vikings as a team that has dominated the lesser teams on its schedule, but struggles to play at that same level against better opponents.

Raiders @ Steelers
Didn't the Steelers used to have a defense? They gave up three long fourth-quarter touchdown drives. To the Raiders. At home. A stunning defensive collapse for last year's Super Bowl champions.

Split Picks (APR 0-2, SRS 0-2, Line 2-0)

Texans (APR, SRS) @ Jaguars (Line)
The Texans (and Jaguars, for that matter) continue to confound. The Texans have wins over the Titans and Bengals, which accounts in part for APR's high ranking. But they are now on a 4 game losing streak, probably out of the playoffs, and in need of winning out to clinch a winning season.

Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Packers (Line)
That was ugly. 310 combined penalty yards. 7 combined turnovers. In spite of all that, the Packers' defense did come up big, reeling in back-to-back interceptions that snuffed out the Ravens' come-back attempt.

Standings:

This Week Overall%
APR   9-7112-6463.6%
SRS   9-7111-6563.1%
Line  11-5121-5568.8%
Unanimous  9-5 90-3373.2%

New power rankings, and Week 14 picks to come.

Sunday, December 6, 2009

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 14

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Official rankings will be added after they are published.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (↑1)Alabama
BCS=1
13-07.8120
(LW × 1.102)
won by 19
vs Florida
2 (↓1)Texas
BCS=2
13-07.4355
(LW × 0.934)
won by 1
at Nebraska
3 (-)Florida
BCS=5
12-16.4083
(LW × 0.912)
lost by 19
at Alabama
4 (-)Texas-Tech8-45.7708
(LW × 0.988)
Bye
5 (-)Oklahoma7-55.7246
(LW × 0.985)
Bye
6 (-)Arkansas7-55.5098
(LW × 0.996)
Bye
7 (↑1)Virginia-Tech
BCS=11
9-35.4480
(LW × 1.000)
Bye
8 (↓1)TCU
BCS=4
12-05.3956
(LW × 0.990)
Bye
9 (↑2)Oregon
BCS=7
10-25.3112
(LW × 1.028)
won by 4
vs Oregon-St
10 (-)Ohio-St
BCS=8
10-25.3024
(LW × 1.025)
Bye
11 (↑1)Penn-St
BCS=13
10-25.1895
(LW × 1.015)
Bye
12 (↑1)Mississippi8-45.0952
(LW × 1.009)
Bye
13 (↑2)Georgia-Tech
BCS=9
11-24.9651
(LW × 1.011)
won by 5
at Clemson
14 (↓5)Boise-St
BCS=6
13-04.8267
(LW × 0.907)
won by 35
vs New-Mexico-St
15 (↓1)Cincinnati
BCS=3
12-04.7427
(LW × 0.960)
won by 1
at Pittsburgh
16 (-)Nebraska
BCS=22
9-44.6985
(LW × 1.015)
lost by 1
vs Texas
17 (↑3)LSU
BCS=12
9-34.5386
(LW × 1.021)
Bye
18 (↓1)Miami-FL
BCS=15
9-34.5375
(LW × 0.991)
Bye
19 (-)Stanford
BCS=21
8-44.4544
(LW × 1.002)
Bye
20 (↓2)Oklahoma-St
BCS=19
9-34.4496
(LW × 0.986)
Bye
21 (↑1)Iowa
BCS=10
10-24.3895
(LW × 1.034)
Bye
22 (↑2)Oregon-St
BCS=18
8-44.2308
(LW × 1.004)
lost by 4
at Oregon
23 (↑4)Auburn7-54.1856
(LW × 1.015)
Bye
24 (↓3)Pittsburgh
BCS=17
9-34.1809
(LW × 0.949)
lost by 1
vs Cincinnati
25 (-)West-Virginia
BCS=16
9-24.1479
(LW × 0.985)
won by 3
at Rutgers
26 (↑2)Tennessee7-54.1343
(LW × 1.003)
Bye
27 (↓1)Texas-A&M6-64.1017
(LW × 0.985)
Bye
28 (↑1)North-Carolina8-44.0223
(LW × 0.994)
Bye
29 (↓6)Clemson8-53.9598
(LW × 0.934)
lost by 5
vs Georgia-Tech
30 (↑2)Georgia7-53.8176
(LW × 0.999)
Bye

Other notable teams:
31 (↑9)Wisconsin
BCS=25
9-33.8104
(LW × 1.104)
won by 41
at Hawaii
34 (↓4)USC
BCS=24
8-43.7160
(LW × 0.921)
lost by 4
vs Arizona
35 (↑7)Arizona
BCS=20
8-43.6873
(LW × 1.089)
won by 4
at USC
36 (-)BYU
BCS=14
10-23.5721
(LW × 0.991)
Bye
37 (↓4)Houston10-33.5213
(LW × 0.932)
lost by 6
at East-Carolina
50 (↓2)Utah
BCS=23
9-33.0003
(LW × 0.988)
Bye

Comments:

  • In spite of APR having them closely ranked, Alabama vs Florida was only close in the first half.

  • And Texas really had a sloppy game against Nebraska. Probably the worst sequence was Colt McCoy's final incompletion, where the whole team seemed unaware the game clock was about to expire. If they play like that in the Championship Game, Alabama is going to run away with it.

  • Arizona had a better, but still weak offensive game against USC. If they play Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl, it could be very ugly for them. The good news is that Arizona will have the rest of the month to get healthy before they play.

  • Stay tuned. There's more NCAA stuff to come, including the Bowl picks.

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

NFL Strength of Remaining Schedule, Q3

2009 Navigation Links

Strength of remaining schedule, Q1
Strength of remaining schedule, Q2

As usual, higher index values represent better teams, so a higher value here means a more difficult schedule.

RankTeamW-LStrength of
Schedule
1Carolina Panthers4-74.0613
2Washington Redskins3-84.0045
3Miami Dolphins5-63.9648
4Buffalo Bills4-73.9493
5Dallas Cowboys8-33.9082
6Jacksonville Jaguars6-53.7744
7Atlanta Falcons6-53.6500
8Tampa Bay Buccaneers1-103.6338
9Indianapolis Colts11-03.6006
10New York Jets5-63.5575
11Tennessee Titans5-63.4888
12Philadelphia Eagles7-43.4339
13Detroit Lions2-93.3850
14St. Louis Rams1-103.3808
15New York Giants6-53.3658
16Kansas City Chiefs3-83.3019
17Cincinnati Bengals8-33.2913
18Cleveland Browns1-103.2726
19Seattle Seahawks4-73.2382
20New England Patriots7-43.1977
21Green Bay Packers7-43.1932
22Denver Broncos7-43.1824
23Minnesota Vikings10-13.1199
24San Diego Chargers8-33.1153
25Oakland Raiders3-83.0949
26Houston Texans5-62.9780
27Chicago Bears4-72.8835
28New Orleans Saints11-02.7998
29Pittsburgh Steelers6-52.7589
30Arizona Cardinals7-42.7422
31Baltimore Ravens6-52.5340
32San Francisco 49ers5-62.4367

Comments

  • CBS Sports has a page detailing the playoff race as it currently stands. Note they also have a "Scenarios" page which details what needs to happen for teams close to clinching to get in.

  • The Cowboys have the hardest remaining schedule of any playoff contender. With just a one-game lead over the Eagles, and a propensity for their offense to struggle, they've got a long way to go to clinch a playoff spot.

  • The Colts' 11-0 record has definitely been living in the shadow of the Saints equal result. But by APR's measure, the Colts have played a much tougher schedule, which should be worth something in the playoffs.

  • The Titans have actually managed to stir up some talk of making a playoff run. The bad news is they made that 5-0 run through a very soft part of their schedule. They will likely need at least 4 more wins to qualify for the playoffs, which means they can only have one loss in upcoming games against the Colts, Dolphins, and Chargers.

NFL Week 13 Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com.

GameAPRSRSLine
San Diego Chargers @
Cleveland Browns
Chargers
ρ=3.4812
Chargers
δ=18.95
Chargers
-12½
Detroit Lions @
Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals
ρ=3.2312
Bengals
δ=16.92
Bengals
-13
New Orleans Saints @
Washington Redskins
Saints
ρ=2.8654
Saints
δ=21.19
Saints
-9½
Oakland Raiders @
Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.8976
Steelers
δ=14.90
Steelers
-11½
Denver Broncos @
Kansas City Chiefs
Broncos
ρ=1.7174
Broncos
δ=11.35
Broncos
-4½
New England Patriots @
Miami Dolphins
Patriots
ρ=1.5713
Patriots
δ=11.06
Patriots
-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @
Carolina Panthers
Panthers
ρ=1.5669
Panthers
δ=5.68
Panthers
-6½
San Francisco 49ers @
Seattle Seahawks
49ers
ρ=1.4343
49ers
δ=5.67
49ers
-1
Tennessee Titans @
Indianapolis Colts
Colts
ρ=1.4103
Colts
δ=14.55
Colts
-7
Dallas Cowboys @
New York Giants
Cowboys
ρ=1.3756
Cowboys
δ=2.83
Cowboys
-1
St. Louis Rams @
Chicago Bears
Bears
ρ=1.3306
Bears
δ=10.52
Bears
-9
Houston Texans @
Jacksonville Jaguars
Texans
ρ=1.1954
Texans
δ=8.39
Jaguars
-1
New York Jets @
Buffalo Bills
Jets
ρ=1.1748
Jets
δ=9.45
Jets
-3
Baltimore Ravens @
Green Bay Packers
Ravens
ρ=1.1729
Ravens
δ=4.06
Packers
-3
Minnesota Vikings @
Arizona Cardinals
Vikings
ρ=1.1595
Vikings
δ=6.93
Vikings
-2
Philadelphia Eagles @
Atlanta Falcons
Eagles
ρ=1.0789
Eagles
δ=0.62
Eagles
-3½

Comments:

  • Vikings -2? Seems a little low to me. If the Titans could wear down the Cardinals' defense by the end of the game, what will it be like when Favre and Peterson take the field? I'll be surprised if the Vikings aren't ahead by 3 touchdowns before the game is over (whether that will hold up or the Vikings' defense allow some garbage-time scoring is another question).

  • And Bengals -13 seems a bit optimistic for a team that only beat the Browns by 9 last week. The Bengals have seven games this season where they haven't scored more than 18 points.

  • Can the Packers beat the Ravens? The Packers have an amazing ball-hawking defense. On the other hand, if they do beat the Ravens, it will make only the second team (along with the Cowboys) the Packers have beat currently ranked in APR's top half.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

NFL Week 12 Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For Week 12

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)New Orleans
Saints
11-06.2910
(LW × 1.100)
won by 21
vs Patriots
2 (-)Indianapolis
Colts
11-05.7574
(LW × 1.046)
won by 8
at Texans
3 (-)New England
Patriots
7-44.8745
(LW × 0.937)
lost by 21
at Saints
4 (-)San Diego
Chargers
8-34.8123
(LW × 0.979)
won by 29
vs Chiefs
5 (-)Minnesota
Vikings
10-14.4254
(LW × 1.048)
won by 26
vs Bears
6 (↑5)Tennessee
Titans
5-64.0824
(LW × 1.095)
won by 3
vs Cardinals
7 (↑6)Denver
Broncos
7-44.0306
(LW × 1.089)
won by 20
vs Giants
8 (-)Pittsburgh
Steelers
6-53.9700
(LW × 0.962)
lost by 3
at Ravens
9 (↓2)Cincinnati
Bengals
8-33.9629
(LW × 0.948)
won by 9
vs Browns
10 (↓1)Dallas
Cowboys
8-33.9532
(LW × 0.982)
won by 17
vs Raiders
11 (↑3)Baltimore
Ravens
6-53.8960
(LW × 1.075)
won by 3
vs Steelers
12 (↓6)Arizona
Cardinals
7-43.8167
(LW × 0.909)
lost by 3
at Titans
13 (↓3)Houston
Texans
5-63.7555
(LW × 0.983)
lost by 8
vs Colts
14 (↑2)New York
Jets
5-63.6454
(LW × 1.073)
won by 11
vs Panthers
15 (↓3)Philadelphia
Eagles
7-43.3686
(LW × 0.904)
won by 3
vs Redskins
16 (↑5)Green Bay
Packers
7-43.3216
(LW × 1.036)
won by 22
at Lions
17 (↑6)San Francisco
49ers
5-63.1897
(LW × 1.248)
won by 17
vs Jaguars
18 (↓1)Jacksonville
Jaguars
6-53.1416
(LW × 0.936)
lost by 17
at 49ers
19 (↑1)Atlanta
Falcons
6-53.1223
(LW × 0.950)
won by 3
vs Buccaneers
20 (↑4)Buffalo
Bills
4-73.1030
(LW × 1.230)
won by 17
vs Dolphins
21 (↓6)Miami
Dolphins
5-63.1022
(LW × 0.907)
lost by 17
at Bills
22 (↓3)Carolina
Panthers
4-72.8862
(LW × 0.875)
lost by 11
at Jets
23 (↓5)New York
Giants
6-52.8738
(LW × 0.866)
lost by 20
at Broncos
24 (↓2)Kansas City
Chiefs
3-82.3469
(LW × 0.892)
lost by 29
at Chargers
25 (↑2)Seattle
Seahawks
4-72.2239
(LW × 1.029)
won by 10
at Rams
26 (-)Washington
Redskins
3-82.1955
(LW × 0.984)
lost by 3
at Eagles
27 (↓2)Oakland
Raiders
3-82.0921
(LW × 0.883)
lost by 17
at Cowboys
28 (-)Chicago
Bears
4-72.0597
(LW × 0.956)
lost by 26
at Vikings
29 (-)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
1-101.8420
(LW × 0.994)
lost by 3
at Falcons
30 (-)St. Louis
Rams
1-101.5480
(LW × 0.943)
lost by 10
vs Seahawks
31 (-)Cleveland
Browns
1-101.3824
(LW × 1.102)
lost by 9
at Bengals
32 (-)Detroit
Lions
2-91.2264
(LW × 0.989)
lost by 22
vs Packers

Comments

  • The Patriots lose power for a 21-point loss. APR doesn't push them lower because 1) they were on the road, and 2) it was against a highly ranked team.

  • There's a big gap in the standings between the top 3 (Saints, Colts and Vikings) and the rest of the league. 26 teams are at 7-4 or worse.

  • Now the Titans are knocking on the door of the top 5. And somehow, a team that started 0-6 has a chance of getting to a 0.500 record (or even better).

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Giants (+8)
The Giants have lost 4 of their last 5 games, and needing overtime to deny the Falcons their second road win of the season. The way their playing, they might not get another win this season. Yet somehow ESPN has them ranked above 17 other teams.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Titans (-10)
The Titans now have a 5 game winning streak, including 4 against teams with a reasonable shot at the playoffs (Cardinals, 49ers, Texans, and Jaguars). All of them would have a better shot with another win.