Tuesday, December 22, 2009

NFL Week 16 Picks

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Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com.

Picks for week 16.

GameAPRSRSLine
St. Louis Rams @
Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=2.7143
Cardinals
δ=17.67
Cardinals
-14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @
New Orleans Saints
Saints
ρ=2.5513
Saints
δ=20.69
Saints
-14
Detroit Lions @
San Francisco 49ers
49ers
ρ=2.4941
49ers
δ=14.90
49ers
-12
Minnesota Vikings @
Chicago Bears
Vikings
ρ=2.0279
Vikings
δ=11.32
Vikings
-7
Seattle Seahawks @
Green Bay Packers
Packers
ρ=1.9427
Packers
δ=11.47
Packers
-14
Dallas Cowboys @
Washington Redskins
Cowboys
ρ=1.7314
Cowboys
δ=9.73
Cowboys
-7
Kansas City Chiefs @
Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.7040
Bengals
δ=12.62
Bengals
-14
Jacksonville Jaguars @
New England Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.6923
Patriots
δ=15.60
Patriots
-7½
New York Jets @
Indianapolis Colts
Colts
ρ=1.4004
Colts
δ=4.82
Colts
-5½
Denver Broncos @
Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.3638
Eagles
δ=5.06
Eagles
-7
San Diego Chargers @
Tennessee Titans
Chargers
ρ=1.3428
Chargers
δ=7.26
Titans
-3
Oakland Raiders @
Cleveland Browns
Raiders
ρ=1.2140
Raiders
δ=0.09
Browns
-2
Buffalo Bills @
Atlanta Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.1326
Falcons
δ=6.32
Falcons
-8
Houston Texans @
Miami Dolphins
Dolphins
ρ=1.0903
Dolphins
δ=0.29
Dolphins
-3
Baltimore Ravens @
Pittsburgh Steelers
Ravens
ρ=1.0739
Ravens
δ=8.14
Steelers
-3
Carolina Panthers @
New York Giants
Giants
ρ=1.0281
Giants
δ=4.52
Giants
-7

Comments:

  • Reports are the Bills will start Brian Brohm at quarterback on Sunday. He's the guy who lost out the backup job in Green Bay, and was demoted to the practice squad at the beginning of the season. Adjust your expectations accordingly.

  • For the third time in four weeks, the Vikings play a prime-time road game against a lesser opponent. Things are sure to get even uglier for Childress and Favre if they can't put together a solid win in this game.

  • There are a number of AFC matchups with playoff implications this week. The Patriots can clinch the AFC North with a win (which would also likely knock the Jaguars out of contention). But the Ravens and Broncos both have tough opponents, which could open the door for one of those 7-7 teams to sneak into a wildcard spot.

  • All three of the NFC wildcard wannabe teams are favored to win this week, although the Giants have the toughest matchup. Next week won't be any easier, when they travel to Minnesota to face a Vikings squad that is sure to be looking for some momentum going into the playoffs.