Tuesday, November 30, 2010

NFL: Week 12 APR vs ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 12 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Amazing—for the first time this early in the season, there isn't any team outside my 9-position limit. There are some on the bubble, though.

On the bubble:
Seahawks (+8). Can a #22 ranking be too high for a 5-6 team? The Seahawks make a strong case for 'yes'.
In range:
Rams (+6). On the other hand, maybe APR has the Rams ranked too low. They are clearly improving, and with three division games left on their schedule, have a real shot at 8 wins this year (which is more than their combined wins for 2007, 2008, and 2009).

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble:
Browns (-8). The Browns came within a doinked last-second field goal of losing to the Panthers. The Browns may be on the verge of success, but it sure doesn't seem like Jake Delhomme has a part in making it happen.
In range:
Buffalo (-6). They've had two outright wins, and three losses in overtime since their bye. Definitely not a team to pencil in as an easy win anymore.

NFL: Week 12 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (9-3)

Right

Patriots @ Lions
Saints @ Cowboys
Steelers @ Bills
Chiefs @ Seahawks
49ers @ Cardinals
Bengals @ Jets
Jaguars @ Giants
Panthers @ Browns
Buccaneers @ Ravens

Wrong

Vikings @ Redskins
The Redskins offense has struggled this season, and this game is another prime example. Their running game only put up 29 yards, and McNabb was only able to sustain one long drive with his passing. The Vikings special teams nearly gave the game away (the Redskins had a late punt return TD called back on an illegal block), But in the end, the Vikings did (barely) enough to come away with a win.
Chargers @ Colts
The Colts haven't lost at home by 22 points since 1997 (the year before they drafted Peyton Manning). Are the Chargers just a bad matchup for the Colts? You can blame this some on the Colts' many injuries, but the Colts are now 1-5 in their last 6 meetings with the Chargers (including playoffs).
Eagles @ Bears
Vick's interception was the big highlight of the game, but the Eagles' real problem was their defense couldn't get off the field. They just couldn't stop Cutler—he passed for 247 yards and 4 touchdowns (and no interceptions) on just 14 completions. Matt Forte putting up 117 yards rushing helped things along too.

Split (APR: 2-2 SRS: 2-2 Line: 2-2)

Titans (APR, SRS) @ Texans (Line)
Rusty Smith (the Titans' 6th-round pick rookie QB) was really awful in this game: 17/31 for 138 yards and 3 interceptions. The Titans didn't have a drive longer than 27 yards until garbage time, and they are now the only opponent that didn't score at least 24 points on the Texans this season.
Packers (APR, SRS) @ Falcons (Line)
As usual for a close game, there are a lot of things I could point to as turning points. One that really stood out as I watched the game was Mike Turner's running. He got solid yards running up the middle, which made runs to the outside, and play-action a lot more effective. The Packers' running game consisted almost entirely of scrambles by Aaron Rodgers, and as a result, the Packers offense played catch-up the whole game, until time to catch up ran out.
Rams (APR, SRS) @ Broncos (Line)
Sam Bradford had perhaps the best game of his young career, throwing 22/37, 308 yards and 3 touchdowns. Ironically, it was the Rams' defense that nearly let this game slip away, giving up 20 fourth-quarter points, which kept the Broncos in the game right to the final seconds of play.
Dolphins (APR, SRS) @ Raiders (Line)
The Raiders managed just 16(!) yards total running the ball, and Bruce Gradkowski was not able to make it up passing. Chad Henne didn't have a great day at quarterback for the Dolphins, but with Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown running for 180 yards, he didn't really need one.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 11- 5 86-74-053.8%
APR VH 8- 8 82-78-051.2%
SRS 11- 5 89-71-055.6%
SRS VH 7- 9 86-73-154.1%
Line 11- 5101-59-063.1%

Monday, November 29, 2010

NFL: Week 12 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Patriots1.0416
(LW × 1.0236)
9-2Won by 21
@ Lions
2 (-)Ravens1.0298
(LW × 1.0137)
8-3Won by 7
vs Buccaneers
3 (↑4)Falcons1.0063
(LW × 1.0119)
9-2Won by 3
vs Packers
4 (-)Packers1.0040
(LW × 0.9947)
7-4Lost by 3
@ Falcons
5 (-)Jets1.0033
(LW × 0.9996)
9-2Won by 16
vs Bengals
6 (-)Steelers0.9922
(LW × 0.9943)
8-3Won by 3
@ Bills
7 (↓4)Eagles0.9896
(LW × 0.9784)
7-4Lost by 5
@ Bears
8 (↑2)Bears0.9503
(LW × 1.0129)
8-3Won by 5
vs Eagles
9 (↑4)Chargers0.9489
(LW × 1.0381)
6-5Won by 22
@ Colts
10 (↓2)Colts0.9329
(LW × 0.9486)
6-5Lost by 22
vs Chargers
11 (↑1)Saints0.9281
(LW × 1.0149)
8-3Won by 3
@ Cowboys
12 (↓1)Giants0.9219
(LW × 0.9953)
7-4Won by 4
vs Jaguars
13 (↑5)Dolphins0.9082
(LW × 1.0330)
6-5Won by 16
@ Raiders
14 (↓5)Titans0.9066
(LW × 0.9518)
5-6Lost by 20
@ Texans
15 (-)Chiefs0.9056
(LW × 1.0061)
7-4Won by 18
@ Seahawks
16 (↓2)Browns0.9013
(LW × 0.9948)
4-7Won by 1
vs Panthers
17 (↑2)Buccaneers0.8886
(LW × 1.0123)
7-4Lost by 7
@ Ravens
18 (↓1)Jaguars0.8815
(LW × 0.9999)
6-5Lost by 4
@ Giants
19 (↑5)Texans0.8665
(LW × 1.0262)
5-6Won by 20
vs Titans
20 (↓4)Redskins0.8561
(LW × 0.9671)
5-6Lost by 4
vs Vikings
21 (↑2)Bills0.8535
(LW × 1.0106)
2-9Lost by 3
vs Steelers
22 (↑3)Vikings0.8509
(LW × 1.0128)
4-7Won by 4
@ Redskins
23 (↓2)Cowboys0.8428
(LW × 0.9868)
3-8Lost by 3
vs Saints
24 (↑2)Rams0.8379
(LW × 1.0133)
5-6Won by 3
@ Broncos
25 (↓5)Raiders0.8366
(LW × 0.9674)
5-6Lost by 16
vs Dolphins
26 (↑4)49ers0.8289
(LW × 1.0352)
4-7Won by 21
@ Cardinals
27 (↓5)Lions0.8286
(LW × 0.9740)
2-9Lost by 21
vs Patriots
28 (↓1)Bengals0.7973
(LW × 0.9890)
2-9Lost by 16
@ Jets
29 (↓1)Broncos0.7882
(LW × 0.9799)
3-8Lost by 3
vs Rams
30 (↓1)Seahawks0.7700
(LW × 0.9575)
5-6Lost by 18
vs Chiefs
31 (↑1)Panthers0.7243
(LW × 1.0359)
1-10Lost by 1
@ Browns
32 (↓1)Cardinals0.7219
(LW × 0.9543)
3-8Lost by 21
vs 49ers

Comments:

  • The Falcons and Bears sure looked like the class of the NFC on Sunday. Though given the Bears losses to the Seahawks and Redskins, I have to wonder how consistently they can play at that level.

  • The Packers loss doesn't cost them much power, and thanks to the Eagles' fall making a spot for the Falcons, it doesn't cost them rank position either.

  • The top-ranked AFC teams have another unimpressive week, with the Patriots and Jets struggling against bad teams early, and the Steelers needing overtime to beat the Bills.

  • Because the Colts now have 5 losses, their streak of 12+ win seasons ends at 7 (2003-2009). But they have a pretty soft schedule to finish the season, and could easily get to 10 wins (which would extend their now 8-season streak of 10+ win seasons).

  • Every team in the NFC West now has a losing record, and all are ranked in the bottom 10. Although if the Rams can beat the Cardinals next week, both are likely to change.

  • Are the Cardinals the worst team in the NFL right now? After making the 49ers look like world-beaters on MNF, it's hard to argue otherwise.

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

NFL: Week 12 Game Picks

All Line values from yahoo.com, except Titans @ Texans, Panther @ Browns, and Dolphins @ Raiders, which were taken from footballlocks.com.

GameAPRSRSLine
Panthers @
Browns
Browns
ρ=1.2958
Browns
δ=15.8
Browns
-11
Bengals @
Jets
Jets
ρ=1.2449
Jets
δ=10.8
Jets
-9
Patriots @
Lions
Patriots
ρ=1.1960
Patriots*
δ=5.7
Patriots
-7
Steelers @
Bills
Steelers
ρ=1.1815
Steelers*
δ=12.4
Steelers
-6½
Buccaneers @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.1574
Ravens
δ=9.7
Ravens
-7½
Titans @
Texans
Titans
ρ=1.1280
Titans*
δ=9.6
Texans
-6½
Chiefs @
Seahawks
Chiefs*
ρ=1.1194
Chiefs*
δ=9.1
Chiefs
-1
Eagles @
Bears
Eagles
ρ=1.0781
Eagles*
δ=4.8
Eagles
-3
Chargers @
Colts
Colts
ρ=1.0760
Colts
δ=1.2
Colts
-3
Saints @
Cowboys
Saints
ρ=1.0708
Saints*
δ=4.3
Saints
-3½
49ers @
Cardinals
49ers*
ρ=1.0584
49ers*
δ=3.9
49ers
-1
Vikings @
Redskins
Redskins*
ρ=1.0537
Redskins
δ=1.4
Redskins
-2½
Jaguars @
Giants
Giants*
ρ=1.0508
Giants
δ=6.5
Giants
-7½
Rams @
Broncos
Rams*
ρ=1.0280
Rams*
δ=0.2
Broncos
-4
Dolphins @
Raiders
Dolphins
ρ=1.0165
Dolphins*
δ=1.3
Raiders
-3
Packers @
Falcons
Packers
ρ=1.0149
Packers*
δ=5.7
Falcons
-2½

Comments:

  • Each pick method column is sortable on the confidence value (ρ, δ, or point spread). Just click the link at the head of the appropriate column.

  • It's pretty tough to be thankful for that schedule of Thursday games. The Lions, Cowboys, and Bengals combined have 7 wins. Hopefully at least the newly resurgent Cowboys can make a game of it against the Saints.

  • Packers @ Falcons and Eagles @ Bears feature four of the highest-ranked NFC teams, and should give the winners an inside track on the top-ranked playoff seeds.

  • In case you somehow haven't heard, Vince Young has been placed on IR and Kerry Collins is still hurt, so the Titans will be starting rookie QB Rusty Smith, backed up by perennial also-ran Chris Simms. Which means the Texans may finally be facing an opponent they can hold under 30 points this week.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

NFL: Week 11 APR vs ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 11 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

On the bubble:
Buccaneers, Seahawks (+8). For the second week in a row, the Buccaneers have won by 15+ points, and it's starting to show up in APR's rankings.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Lions, Browns (-9)
As usual, although closer this week than last. I'm not sure there's a good ranking for teams like these, particularly the Browns.
On the bubble:
Titans (-8)

NFL: Week 11 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (10-3)

Right

Ravens @ Panthers
Packers @ Vikings
Falcons @ Rams
Texans @ Jets
Cardinals @ Chiefs
Raiders @ Steelers
Seahawks @ Saints
Colts @ Patriots
Giants @ Eagles
Broncos @ Chargers

Wrong

Bears @ Dolphins
If you're starting your 3rd-string quarterback, don't you have to at least try to run the ball, as long as the game is close? Even if you are playing the team with the #2 rush defense? Thigpen handed off just 7 times, in spite of the fact that he had just 153 yards passing up to the final drive of the game.
Redskins @ Titans
The Titans had 11 penalties for 81 yards in this game, and they really hurt. A holding call pushed a 1st-and-goal at the 3 back 10 yards (the drive ended in a field goal). An OPI call nullified a late 4th-down touchdown pass. And in overtime, "roughing the passer" and "illegal contact" penalties helped get the Redskins into range to kick the winning field goal.
Bills @ Bengals
Good: being up 35-14 at halftime. Bad: giving up 35 unanswered points in the second half. Both of these teams are struggling, but at least the Bills finally seem to be moving in the right direction.

Split (APR: 1-2 SRS: 1-2 Line: 2-1)

Browns (APR, SRS) @ Jaguars (Line)
The same old story for the Browns: they play a team with a winning record close, have a late lead, but can't finish. Perhaps typical of their whole season, the Browns gave up 75 yards on a screen pass to Maurice Jones-Drew that set up the winning touchdown a couple plays later.
Lions (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)
The next game continues the theme of teams that can't put together a full game of quality football. The Lions were in control of the game into the 3rd quarter, until they gave up a 97 yard punt return touchdown. On the subsequent drive, the Lions fumbled the ball away at their own 19 yard line. The Cowboys converted the short field into another quick touchdown, and the Lions never lead again.
Buccaneers (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)
The 49ers offense laid a big fat goose egg in this game, and not just on the scoreboard. Troy Smith struggled passing, completing less than 50% of his passes, and got sacked 6 times. There was no help from the running game, which barely accumulated 81 yards. The 49ers defense only gave up two long drives, but that was all the Buccaneers needed to win.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 11- 575-69-052.1%
APR VH12- 474-70-051.4%
SRS 11- 578-66-054.2%
SRS VH 9- 779-54-155.2%
Line 12- 490-54-062.5%

Monday, November 22, 2010

NFL: Week 11 Power Rankings

Update: Power ranking columns now sortable, too! I also fixed a bug in the associated JavaScript code. I didn't see it causing a problem on the Strength-of-Schedule table, but maybe someone else did? Anyway, please feel free to comment if this doesn't seem to work right for you.

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (↑2)Patriots1.0176
(LW × 0.9892)
8-2Won by 3
vs Colts
2 (-)Ravens1.0159
(LW × 0.9819)
7-3Won by 24
@ Panthers
3 (↑2)Eagles1.0115
(LW × 1.0206)
7-3Won by 10
vs Giants
4 (↑2)Packers1.0093
(LW × 1.0206)
7-3Won by 28
@ Vikings
5 (↓4)Jets1.0036
(LW × 0.9669)
8-2Won by 3
vs Texans
6 (↓2)Steelers0.9978
(LW × 0.9899)
7-3Won by 32
vs Raiders
7 (↑1)Falcons0.9945
(LW × 1.0082)
8-2Won by 17
@ Rams
8 (↑1)Colts0.9835
(LW × 1.0041)
6-4Lost by 3
@ Patriots
9 (↓2)Titans0.9525
(LW × 0.9651)
5-5Lost by 3
vs Redskins
10 (↑5)Bears0.9382
(LW × 1.0403)
7-3Won by 16
@ Dolphins
11 (-)Giants0.9263
(LW × 1.0045)
6-4Lost by 10
@ Eagles
12 (↑2)Saints0.9145
(LW × 1.0072)
7-3Won by 15
vs Seahawks
13 (-)Chargers0.9140
(LW × 1.0023)
5-5Won by 21
vs Broncos
14 (↓2)Browns0.9060
(LW × 0.9870)
3-7Lost by 4
@ Jaguars
15 (↑1)Chiefs0.9002
(LW × 0.9983)
6-4Won by 18
vs Cardinals
16 (↑8)Redskins0.8853
(LW × 1.0452)
5-5Won by 3
@ Titans
17 (↑5)Jaguars0.8816
(LW × 1.0257)
6-4Won by 4
vs Browns
18 (↓8)Dolphins0.8791
(LW × 0.9410)
5-5Lost by 16
vs Bears
19 (↑1)Buccaneers0.8778
(LW × 1.0177)
7-3Won by 21
@ 49ers
20 (↓3)Raiders0.8649
(LW × 0.9649)
5-5Lost by 32
@ Steelers
21 (↑8)Cowboys0.8540
(LW × 1.0416)
3-7Won by 16
vs Lions
22 (↓4)Lions0.8508
(LW × 0.9720)
2-8Lost by 16
@ Cowboys
23 (↑7)Bills0.8445
(LW × 1.0421)
2-8Won by 18
@ Bengals
24 (↑4)Texans0.8444
(LW × 1.0193)
4-6Lost by 3
@ Jets
25 (↓6)Vikings0.8402
(LW × 0.9634)
3-7Lost by 28
vs Packers
26 (↓5)Rams0.8269
(LW × 0.9601)
4-6Lost by 17
vs Falcons
27 (↓4)Bengals0.8062
(LW × 0.9418)
2-8Lost by 18
vs Bills
28 (↓3)Broncos0.8044
(LW × 0.9562)
3-7Lost by 21
@ Chargers
29 (↓2)Seahawks0.8041
(LW × 0.9586)
5-5Lost by 15
@ Saints
30 (↓4)49ers0.8007
(LW × 0.9544)
3-7Lost by 21
vs Buccaneers
31 (-)Cardinals0.7565
(LW × 0.9622)
3-7Lost by 18
@ Chiefs
32 (-)Panthers0.6992
(LW × 0.9884)
1-9Lost by 24
vs Ravens

Comments:

  • The top 8 ranked teams are all very close together by their power index value; there's a pretty steep drop from the Colts to #9 Titans.

  • The teams from #9 down to #30 (49ers) are clustered fairly close together. The #32 Panthers are way down in a hole.

  • And here come the Chargers, who have clawed their way back to 0.500, after being 2-5 after week 7. After next week's game at the Colts, they have a very soft schedule—the Chiefs may need to win their week 14 rematch to win the AFC West.

  • Every team in the NFC West lost this week, and APR now has all of them in the bottom 7 teams. There's been some really weak divisions in the history of the NFL, but I'll be surprised if the 2010 NFC West doesn't make the All-Time short list.

  • The Titans have joined a growing list of teams with a gaping void at the quarterback position. I have a feeling it's going to be a very good offseason to be a free agent QB this spring.

Sunday, November 21, 2010

NFL: Week 11 wins and the Playoffs

From 2002-2009, a total of 12 × 8 = 96 teams have made the playoffs. Here's how playoff appearances break down according to the number of wins after Week 11:

# of
Wins
# of
Teams
# in
Playoffs
% in
Playoffs
0 2 0 0.0%
1 9 0 0.0%
221 0 0.0%
334 0 0.0%
444 2 4.5%
53914 35.9%
64324 55.8%
73628 77.8%
81313100.0%
91010100.0%
10 5 5100.0%
  • The two 4-6 teams that made the playoffs were the 2008 Chargers and 2009 Jets.

  • It's interesting that there seems to be a pretty well-defined "make the playoffs" cut-off in the 5-7 win range. If your team is below 5-5 (and not in a very weak division) this is not good news.

It's also interesting to look at how the number of week 11 wins corrolate to winning in the playoffs. For this table, only playoff teams are considered:

# of
Wins
# of teams
in playoffs
# that won
in playoffs
% that won
in playoffs
4, 51611 68.8%
624 9 37.5%
72814 50.0%
813 8 61.5%
910 7 70.0%
10 5 3 60.0%
  • Notice the sweet spot at 4 and 5 wins. I think that makes sense: in order for a 4-6 or 5-5 team to make it to the playoffs, it usually has to get on a hot streak, which translates over into the playoffs.

  • Perhaps the first table can explain the "sour spot" at 6 and 7 wins. Most 6- and 7-win teams end up making the playoffs, so it seems reasonable that this is where most "accidental" playoff teams are to be found—teams that stumble into the playoffs, and are thus more likely to be bounced out.

  • Given the lower standings this year, 2010 should see this skew at least a little lower,

Friday, November 19, 2010

NFL: Week 10 Strength of Schedule

Update: Thanks to the magic of JavaScript, the 'SOS Played' and 'SOS Unplayed' columns are now sortable if you are JavaScript-enabled. Just click on the link at the top of the column to sort (or reverse sort, if already sorted) on that column.

RankTeamSOS
unplayed
RankSOS
played
1Bears0.9596290.8557
2Texans0.9543160.9017
3Bengals0.937160.9236
4Bills0.933730.9438
5Panthers0.9276220.8821
6Patriots0.926590.9168
7Colts0.9214240.8735
8Dolphins0.919720.9459
9Packers0.9195180.8946
10Giants0.9122280.8632
11Vikings0.9093110.9131
12Jaguars0.9093190.8931
13Lions0.9092100.9156
14Cowboys0.9088140.9063
15Raiders0.9084260.8641
16Buccaneers0.9005300.8505
17Jets0.8996120.9101
18Redskins0.891380.9174
19Saints0.8885310.8456
20Titans0.8879170.9014
21Steelers0.882340.9321
22Eagles0.8759130.9097
23Chargers0.8757210.8834
24Chiefs0.8722250.8731
25Broncos0.869850.9248
26Browns0.869410.9481
27Rams0.8687320.8395
28Seahawks0.8619270.8633
29Ravens0.861370.9201
3049ers0.8599230.8773
31Falcons0.8344150.9029
32Cardinals0.8285200.8851

Comments:

  • I've been meaning to get to this since week 4. I finally made some time to get it done.

  • This was computed using the week 10 power rankings. The "played" SOS figure is the combination of the power for all opposing teams in games played through week 10; the "to play" is the combination of all opponents to be played. Division opponents are included twice when they appear twice.

  • If you hover over each team name, you should see (as tooltip text) the ratio of unplayed over played strength of schedule, as well as the ranking of that ratio from 1 (highest) to 32 (lowest). A high ratio means the upcoming games will be much harder; a low ratio means upcoming games should be easier.

  • Biggest swings from easiest played to hardest to play: 1) Bears, 2) Buccaneers, 3) Texans, 4) Giants, 5) Colts.

  • Biggest swings from hardest to easiest: 32) Browns, 31) Falcons, 30) Ravens, 29) Cardinals, 28) Broncos.

  • Based on this, it looks like the Falcons and Eagles have the inside track on the top two seeds in the NFC (although the Packers do have the head-to-head tie breaker over the Eagles, if it comes down to that).

  • And for the top AFC seeds, it looks like the Ravens and... who? Titans? Chiefs?! Jets? Too soon to say, I think.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

NFL: Week 11 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Ravens @
Panthers
Ravens
ρ=1.4626
Ravens*
δ=19.8
Ravens
-10
Texans @
Jets
Jets
ρ=1.2530
Jets
δ=12.4
Jets
-7
Redskins @
Titans
Titans
ρ=1.1653
Titans
δ=11.2
Titans
-7
Cardinals @
Chiefs
Chiefs
ρ=1.1469
Chiefs
δ=11.5
Chiefs
-8
Falcons @
Rams
Falcons
ρ=1.1453
Falcons*
δ=9.7
Falcons
-3
Packers @
Vikings
Packers
ρ=1.1340
Packers*
δ=10.4
Packers
-3
Raiders @
Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.1245
Steelers
δ=4.3
Steelers
-7½
Broncos @
Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.0841
Chargers
δ=7.3
Chargers
-10
Seahawks @
Saints
Saints
ρ=1.0823
Saints
δ=8.1
Saints
-12
Giants @
Eagles
Eagles*
ρ=1.0747
Eagles
δ=4.1
Eagles
-3
Browns @
Jaguars
Browns
ρ=1.0679
Browns*
δ=7.6
Jaguars
-1½
Lions @
Cowboys
Lions
ρ=1.0675
Lions*
δ=8.4
Cowboys
-6½
Bills @
Bengals
Bengals*
ρ=1.0562
Bengals
δ=3.9
Bengals
-5½
Colts @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.0502
Patriots
δ=2.3
Patriots
-3
Bears @
Dolphins
Dolphins*
ρ=1.0359
Dolphins
δ=1.0
Dolphins
-1½
Buccaneers @
49ers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.0281
Buccaneers*
δ=0.3
49ers
-3

Comments:

  • Byes are done. Yay!

  • Lots of agreement this week—only 3 split picks.

  • SRS-VH doesn't like the Ravens to beat the Panthers? The Ravens have struggled on the road (including a loss to the now 2-7 Bengals). But lose to the Panthers? That would be a major shock for a team a lot of people have picked to make it to the Super Bowl.

    Update: Brian St. Pierre is scheduled to start at QB for the Panthers on Sunday. Until recently, St. Pierre was the 3rd-string QB for the Cardinals, and (every time I saw him play, anyway) was never in danger of moving up the depth chart. Apparently it was a choice between him and a 6th-round rookie.

  • The Steelers will have to play a lot better on offense if they're going to beat the Raiders by more than a touchdown. They're certainly not an easy win anymore (and weren't last year, either, when the Steelers played them).

  • Not even the line likes the Bears against the Miami "who's our QB now?" Dolphins. Of course, home field is usually worth ~3 points on the line... I wonder how much home field on a Thursday night is worth?

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

NFL: Week 10 APR vs ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 9 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Buccaneers (+9)
op. cit.
Texans (+9)
The Texans are 4-5, and have given up more points than any other team in the league, and are 1-4 in their last 5. That's not anywhere close to a good team.
On the bubble:
Falcons, Seahawks (+7).

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Lions (-13)
Maybe APR has the Lions overrated, but they are not the second-worst team in the league right now.
Browns (-10)
The keep playing good teams close, but coming away with losses. That's usually a coaching problem, isn't it?
On the bubble:
Titans are closest at (-6).

NFL: Week 10 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (4-5)

Right

Jets @ Browns
Eagles @ Redskins
Panthers @ Buccaneers
Bengals @ Colts

Wrong

Chiefs @ Broncos
Is there any figuring the Broncos? 3 weeks ago, they had a 45-point blow-out loss to the Raiders, and followed up by giving the 49ers their second win of the season. Now they blow out the Chiefs by 20 points? Somebody needs to tell them to play like that every week.
Titans @ Dolphins
What's happened to Kerry Collins? Just two years ago, he lead the Titans to a 13-3 record, and the #1 seed in the AFC. In this game, he was 9/20 for 51 yards passing, after two full quarters of play. No surprise the still-injured Vince Young got the call for the second half.
Vikings @ Bears
In spite of some occasional heroics, the Vikings really are a bad team. Favre threw 3 interceptions to just one touchdown, Adrian Peterson was held to just 51 yards rushing (much of that on just one carry), and the defense only got to the highly-sackable Cutler one time.
Cowboys @ Giants
Apparently, the missing key to the Cowboys' success is practicing in full pads. Maybe not quite the blow-out it seems, when a pick-6 means a 10-, if not 14-point swing on one play. But unlike a week ago in Green Bay, the Cowboys came out to play.
Patriots @ Steelers
The Steelers' seemed to be out-powered on both sides of the ball in this game. They were outscored 24-3 in the first 3 quarters, and a fourth-quarter comeback attempt was snuffed out when Roethlisberger's one interception went back for a touchdown.

Split (APR: 0-5 SRS: 1-4 Line: 4-1)

Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Falcons (Line)
The Ravens pretty much lost this game twice. A muffed punt and an interception gave the Falcons an easy 10 points. Late, the Ravens managed to dig their way out of that hole, and take the lead with just 65 seconds left in the game. But their defense just couldn't hold, not for one measly drive.
Lions (APR, SRS) @ Bills (Line)
The Bills have been playing a lot better on defense since they gave up on the 3-4 scheme. And in spite of improvements to the Lions, they still haven't won a road game in more than 3 years.
Rams (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)
One big reason the Rams lost can be found in Sam Bradford's passing stats: 30 of 42 for 251 yards. It's really tough to win a game if your QB averages less than 6 yards a passing attempt.
Texans (APR, SRS) @ Jaguars (Line)
The Jaguars have given up a lot of points this season (at least 24 points 7 times now). One of the few teams that's given up more points than the Jaguars is the Texans (at least 24 points every game this season).
Seahawks (SRS) @ Cardinals (APR, Line)
It's no shock the Cardinals offense struggled, but what happened to their defense? Matt Hasselbeck lit up the Cardinals' secondary for 333 yards passing and a touchdown. And 4 different Seahawks receivers had long receptions of 32 yards or more.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 4-1064-64-050.0%
APR VH4-1062-66-048.4%
SRS 5- 967-61-052.3%
SRS VH9- 570-57-155.1%
Line 8- 678-50-060.9%

Monday, November 15, 2010

NFL: Week 10 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (↑2)Jets1.0380
(LW × 1.0211)
7-2Won by 6
@ Browns
2 (-)Ravens1.0346
(LW × 1.0086)
6-3Lost by 5
@ Falcons
3 (↑3)Patriots1.0286
(LW × 1.0452)
7-2Won by 13
@ Steelers
4 (↓3)Steelers1.0080
(LW × 0.9634)
6-3Lost by 13
vs Patriots
5 (↑5)Eagles0.9911
(LW × 1.0298)
6-3Won by 31
@ Redskins
6 (↑1)Packers0.9889
(LW × 1.0113)
6-3Bye
7 (↓3)Titans0.9870
(LW × 0.9763)
5-4Lost by 12
@ Dolphins
8 (-)Falcons0.9863
(LW × 1.0100)
7-2Won by 5
vs Ravens
9 (↓4)Colts0.9795
(LW × 0.9797)
6-3Won by 6
vs Bengals
10 (↑6)Dolphins0.9343
(LW × 1.0407)
5-4Won by 12
vs Titans
11 (↓2)Giants0.9222
(LW × 0.9523)
6-3Lost by 13
vs Cowboys
12 (↑2)Browns0.9179
(LW × 0.9971)
3-6Lost by 6
vs Jets
13 (↓1)Chargers0.9119
(LW × 0.9885)
4-5Bye
14 (↓1)Saints0.9079
(LW × 0.9851)
6-3Bye
15 (↑5)Bears0.9019
(LW × 1.0273)
6-3Won by 14
vs Vikings
16 (↓5)Chiefs0.9017
(LW × 0.9460)
5-4Lost by 20
@ Broncos
17 (↓2)Raiders0.8964
(LW × 0.9903)
5-4Bye
18 (-)Lions0.8753
(LW × 0.9806)
2-7Lost by 2
@ Bills
19 (↓2)Vikings0.8721
(LW × 0.9744)
3-6Lost by 14
@ Bears
20 (↑2)Buccaneers0.8625
(LW × 0.9915)
6-3Won by 15
vs Panthers
21 (↓2)Rams0.8612
(LW × 0.9798)
4-5Lost by 3
@ 49ers
22 (↑3)Jaguars0.8595
(LW × 1.0238)
5-4Won by 7
vs Texans
23 (↑1)Bengals0.8560
(LW × 1.0146)
2-7Lost by 6
@ Colts
24 (↓3)Redskins0.8470
(LW × 0.9677)
4-5Lost by 31
vs Eagles
25 (↑4)Broncos0.8412
(LW × 1.0522)
3-6Won by 20
vs Chiefs
26 (↑1)49ers0.8390
(LW × 1.0243)
3-6Won by 3
vs Rams
27 (↑1)Seahawks0.8389
(LW × 1.0296)
5-4Won by 18
@ Cardinals
28 (↓5)Texans0.8284
(LW × 0.9581)
4-5Lost by 7
@ Jaguars
29 (↑1)Cowboys0.8199
(LW × 1.0390)
2-7Won by 13
@ Giants
30 (↑1)Bills0.8104
(LW × 1.0360)
1-8Won by 2
vs Lions
31 (↓5)Cardinals0.7862
(LW × 0.9447)
3-6Lost by 18
vs Seahawks
32 (-)Panthers0.7074
(LW × 0.9842)
1-8Lost by 15
@ Buccaneers

Comments:

  • Another tough week for the top-ranked AFC teams. The Ravens, Steelers and Titans all lost. And the Jets and Colts barely won over teams a long ways south of the 0.500 mark.

  • And speaking of the NFC, that was a pretty impressive demonstration by the Eagles on MNF. The Giants are going to have to bounce back fast if they want to maintain any hope of winning the NFC East.

  • Since 2001, the Vikings are 1-9 at the Bears.

  • Every team in the AFC East won this week. Every team in the AFC North lost.

  • Every team in the NFC West has a negative point differential right now.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

NFL: Week 10 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Cowboys @
Giants
Giants
ρ=1.2271
Giants
δ=12.9
Giants
-14
Panthers @
Buccaneers
Buccaneers*
ρ=1.2103
Buccaneers
δ=7.5
Buccaneers
-6½
Chiefs @
Broncos
Chiefs
ρ=1.1922
Chiefs*
δ=11.2
Chiefs
-1
Bengals @
Colts
Colts
ρ=1.1851
Colts
δ=7.9
Colts
-7½
Lions @
Bills
Lions
ρ=1.1411
Lions*
δ=12.4
Bills
-2½
Titans @
Dolphins
Titans
ρ=1.1262
Titans*
δ=10.9
Titans
-1
Jets @
Browns
Jets
ρ=1.1043
Jets*
δ=5.3
Jets
-3
Eagles @
Redskins
Eagles
ρ=1.0995
Eagles*
δ=5.0
Eagles
-3
Rams @
49ers
Rams*
ρ=1.0732
Rams*
δ=3.3
49ers
-6
Patriots @
Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.0631
Steelers
δ=3.5
Steelers
-4½
Ravens @
Falcons
Ravens
ρ=1.0504
Ravens*
δ=0.5
Falcons
-1
Texans @
Jaguars
Texans
ρ=1.0301
Texans*
δ=5.4
Jaguars
-1
Seahawks @
Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=1.0215
Seahawks*
δ=0.9
Cardinals
-3
Vikings @
Bears
Vikings
ρ=1.0195
Vikings*
δ=0.1
Vikings
-1

Bye: Packers, Saints, Raiders, Chargers

Comments:

  • As usual, *'s mean disagreement between the regular and VH-versions of the picking method.

  • Thursday games start this week. Be sure to get your picks in on time!

  • SRS-VH disagrees with SRS on all but 4 games. That seems... excessive. Well, I did say this was an experimental feature. Perhaps some kind of fudge-factor can make the VH picks more accurate.

  • Hey, the Bills are favored to win a game! Even SRS-VH likes them! I suspect that would be different if the Lions had a healthy quarterback to take the field.

  • The Falcons have done pretty well so far this season, but they've also lost when facing teams higher up the power rankings. Normally, I would say the Ravens win this game easily. But it can be very tough for the road team on Thursday games, and maybe that will be enough to tip things the Falcons' way.

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

NFL: Week 9 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 9 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Buccaneers (+9)
Nothing to add here; last week's comments can stand.
On the bubble:
Texans (+8)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Lions (-9)
A little closer this week. This team needs to learn how to win close games. And keep Matt Stafford heathly.
Browns (-9)
They've got two wins in a row now over some high-quality opponents. If their running game and defense can stay productive, Colt McCoy could be their answer at QB.
On the bubble:
Titans (-7)

NFL: Week 9 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (10-1)

Right

Saints @ Panthers
Jets @ Lions
Giants @ Seahawks
Bears @ Bills
Chargers @ Texans
Steelers @ Bengals
Cardinals @ Vikings
Buccaneers @ Falcons
Dolphins @ Ravens
Cowboys @ Packers

Wrong

Patriots @ Browns
Did the Patriots used to have a run defense? Peyton Hillis got 184 yards and 2 touchdowns against them. Which makes it a lot easier for Colt McCoy (14/19 for 174 yards) and the rest of the Browns do their jobs.

Split (APR: 0-2 SRS: 0-2 Line: 2-0)

Chiefs (APR, SRS) @ Raiders (Line)
The Chiefs nearly had this one. They were up 3 points just before the final two-minute warning, with the Raiders at their own 25 yard line. All they needed for a win was one more stop. Instead they gave up 53 yards, including a couple 3rd-down conversions, and a long completion that got the Raiders into field goal range. This is the kind of stop good teams make, but the Chiefs aren't quite there yet.
Colts (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)
The Colts defense had no answer to the Eagles' running game. LeSeah McCoy had 95 yards rushing, and Michael Vick wasn't far behind at 74. As you might expect, that opened up the passing game too (218 yards and a TD).

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 10-360-54-052.6%
APR VH 7-658-56-050.9%
SRS 10-362-52-054.4%
SRS VH 7-661-52-153.9%
Line 12-170-44-061.4%

Monday, November 8, 2010

NFL: Week 9 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (↑1)Steelers1.0463
(LW × 1.0035)
6-2Won by 6
@ Bengals
2 (↑3)Ravens1.0258
(LW × 1.0135)
6-2Won by 16
vs Dolphins
3 (-)Jets1.0166
(LW × 0.9845)
6-2Won by 3
@ Lions
4 (↑2)Titans1.0110
(LW × 1.0034)
5-3Bye
5 (↓1)Colts0.9998
(LW × 0.9825)
5-3Lost by 2
@ Eagles
6 (↓5)Patriots0.9842
(LW × 0.9393)
6-2Lost by 20
@ Browns
7 (-)Packers0.9778
(LW × 0.9935)
6-3Won by 38
vs Cowboys
8 (↑1)Falcons0.9765
(LW × 1.0087)
6-2Won by 6
vs Buccaneers
9 (↑2)Giants0.9684
(LW × 1.0247)
6-2Won by 34
@ Seahawks
10 (-)Eagles0.9624
(LW × 1.0176)
5-3Won by 2
vs Colts
11 (↓3)Chiefs0.9531
(LW × 0.9814)
5-3Lost by 3
@ Raiders
12 (↑1)Chargers0.9225
(LW × 1.0024)
4-5Won by 6
@ Texans
13 (↑2)Saints0.9217
(LW × 1.0272)
6-3Won by 31
@ Panthers
14 (↑8)Browns0.9205
(LW × 1.0640)
3-5Won by 20
vs Patriots
15 (↑2)Raiders0.9051
(LW × 1.0140)
5-4Won by 3
vs Chiefs
16 (↓4)Dolphins0.8978
(LW × 0.9621)
4-4Lost by 16
@ Ravens
17 (↓3)Vikings0.8950
(LW × 0.9828)
3-5Won by 3
vs Cardinals
18 (↓2)Lions0.8926
(LW × 0.9996)
2-6Lost by 3
vs Jets
19 (↑2)Rams0.8790
(LW × 0.9977)
4-4Bye
20 (↓1)Bears0.8779
(LW × 0.9946)
5-3Won by 3
@ Bills
21 (↓1)Redskins0.8753
(LW × 0.9935)
4-4Bye
22 (↑1)Buccaneers0.8699
(LW × 1.0220)
5-3Lost by 6
@ Falcons
23 (↓5)Texans0.8647
(LW × 0.9764)
4-4Lost by 6
vs Chargers
24 (↑2)Bengals0.8437
(LW × 1.0074)
2-6Lost by 6
vs Steelers
25 (-)Jaguars0.8395
(LW × 0.9923)
4-4Bye
26 (↑1)Cardinals0.8323
(LW × 1.0073)
3-5Lost by 3
@ Vikings
27 (↑1)49ers0.8190
(LW × 0.9996)
2-6Bye
28 (↓4)Seahawks0.8148
(LW × 0.9622)
4-4Lost by 34
vs Giants
29 (↑1)Broncos0.7995
(LW × 0.9949)
2-6Bye
30 (↓1)Cowboys0.7891
(LW × 0.9797)
1-7Lost by 38
@ Packers
31 (-)Bills0.7822
(LW × 0.9769)
0-8Lost by 3
vs Bears
32 (-)Panthers0.7187
(LW × 0.9833)
1-7Lost by 31
vs Saints

Comments:

  • More trouble for those top-rated AFC teams: the Patriots and Colts lose, the Jets need a 10-point come-back and overtime to beat the Lions, and the Steelers nearly let a division game against the very bad Bengals slip away.

  • Wow, the how bad are the Cowboys? No surprise that Wade Phillips got fired. I wonder how bad it will be before Jerry Jones fires the Cowboys' GM?

  • Packers don't get any love from APR for their blow-out home win against that very bad Cowboys team. The Packers are now just barely ranked over the Falcons. APR would have moved the Falcons up 2 more spots if they had won by 7 points instead of 6.

  • The Vikings manage to squeak out a close win, but with 7 NFC teams already at 5-3 or better, they're a long ways from being back in the playoff race.

  • I figured the chances for a Seahawks upset were gone when it was announced that Matt Hasselbeck wouldn't start. I sure didn't figure the team would come apart like a wet paper bag.

  • But on a happier note, my pick of the Rams to win the NFC West seems to be on track. They may only make it to 8 wins this year, but that's probably all it will take.

Friday, November 5, 2010

NFL: How good are this year's teams, and what can we tell about the playoffs from week 8?

I claimed in this week's power rankings that the Patriots aren't very dominant for the top-ranked team. By way of proof, here are the top-ranked teams for week 8 for each season from 1993 to 2010.

Each team is ranked according to its APR power index (ρ) after the week 8 round of games, from highest to lowest.

YearTeamWeek 8
ρ
Week 8
W-L
Finished
W-L
Playoffs
2007Patriots1.18138-016-0 #1 seed (2-1)
2004Eagles 1.16147-013-3 #1 seed (2-1)
2009Saints 1.15717-013-3 #1 seed (3-0)
1998Broncos 1.12747-014-2 #1 seed (3-0)
1996Packers 1.12016-113-3 #1 seed (3-0)
1997Broncos 1.10566-112-4 #4 seed (4-0)
1995Cowboys 1.10096-112-4 #1 seed (3-0)
2005Broncos 1.10056-213-3 #2 seed (1-1)
2000Vikings 1.08727-011-5 #2 seed (1-1)
2001Rams 1.08596-114-2 #1 seed (2-1)
2008Titans 1.08317-013-3 #1 seed (0-1)
2003Chiefs 1.08248-013-3 #2 seed (0-1)
2006Giants 1.07245-2 8-8 #6 seed (0-1)
2002Bucs 1.07156-212-4 #2 seed (3-0)
1994Chargers1.05706-111-5 #2 seed (2-1)
1999Chiefs 1.05655-2 9-7 Did not qualify
1993Bills 1.05605-112-4 #1 seed (2-1)
2010Patriots1.04786-1tbd To be decided

Comments:

  • It's good to be #1 in week 8. Every #1 team except the 1999 Chiefs (and pending the results for the 2010 Patriots) made it to the playoffs. A lot of them made it to the Super Bowl.

  • Also note that while there are a few teams on the bottom of the list that made it to the Super Bowl (1993 Bills, 1994 Chargers, and 2002 Bucs), most of the bottom-ranked teams did not.

  • While the 2010 Patriots are easily the lowest-ranked team on this list, they aren't that far behind—their power index would qualify for the #2 or #3 spot on most of those years.

  • But it does tend to confirm the perception that there really aren't any dominant teams this year.

  • To give an idea of where the cut-off for the Super Bowl winner might be, here's a table of all Super Bowl winners 1993-2009, according to their week 8 power index (ρ).

    YearRankTeam&rhoW-L
    20091 Saints 1.15717-0
    19981 Broncos 1.12747-0
    19961 Packers 1.12016-1
    19971 Broncos 1.10566-1
    19951 Cowboys 1.10096-1
    20021 Buccaneers1.07156-2
    20062 Colts 1.06097-0
    19934 Cowboys 1.02294-2
    19996 Rams 1.01366-1
    20056 Steelers 1.01135-2
    20044 Patriots 1.00946-1
    20035 Patriots 0.99916-2
    19944 49ers 0.99896-2
    20086 Steelers 0.97725-2
    20015 Patrots 0.97244-4
    200710 Giants 0.94856-2
    200012 Ravens 0.93285-3
  • Which means every team that's not in the top 6 right now has to be regarded as a long-shot (at best) to win the Super Bowl.

  • Also note that, with the exception of the 2001 Patriots, every team is at least a couple wins over .500.

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

NFL: Week 9 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Steelers @
Bengals
Steelers
ρ=1.2450
Steelers*
δ=10.7
Steelers
-4½
Saints @
Panthers
Saints
ρ=1.2276
Saints*
δ=10.7
Saints
-6½
Cowboys @
Packers
Packers*
ρ=1.2219
Packers
δ=9.9
Packers
-8
Patriots @
Browns
Patriots
ρ=1.2111
Patriots*
δ=10.5
Patriots
-4½
Jets @
Lions
Jets
ρ=1.1563
Jets*
δ=3.1
Jets
-4
Buccaneers @
Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.1373
Falcons
δ=10.7
Falcons
-8½
Giants @
Seahawks
Giants*
ρ=1.1160
Giants*
δ=8.7
Giants
-7
Bears @
Bills
Bears
ρ=1.1023
Bears*
δ=9.1
Bears
-3
Cardinals @
Vikings
Vikings
ρ=1.1022
Vikings
δ=10.8
Vikings
-9
Chiefs @
Raiders
Chiefs*
ρ=1.0879
Chiefs*
δ=0.5
Raiders
-2½
Dolphins @
Ravens
Ravens*
ρ=1.0847
Ravens
δ=2.8
Ravens
-5
Colts @
Eagles
Colts
ρ=1.0760
Colts*
δ=2.4
Eagles
-2½
Chargers @
Texans
Chargers*
ρ=1.0392
Chargers*
δ=5.8
Chargers
-2½

Bye: Broncos, Jaguars, 49ers, Rams, Titans, Redskins

Comments:

  • As last week, *'s mean the Visitor/Home-split version of the algorithm disagrees with main "all games" version.

  • No surprise that APR-VH and SRS-VH both pick against the Chargers, who are still winless on the road.

  • Giants @ Seahawks is interesting. The Seahawks have played well in their 3 home games, and the Giant have their worst loss (@Colts) and an unimpressive win against a bad team (@Cowboys) on the road.

  • I'm a little surprised that APR-VH likes the Cowboys over the Packers. But the Packers have struggled at least twice in home games (vs the Lions and Dolphins), and the one time the Cowboys looked like an actual playoff contender was @ the Texans. Even now, this has the feel of a trap game for the Packers, who may already have penciled in their sixth win and started looking ahead to their bye week.

NFL: Week 8 APR vs ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 7 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Buccaneers (+9)
ESPN's ranking of the Bucs at #14 is flat-out ridiculous. They have 5 wins, all against bottom-rung teams, and only one by a margin more than 3 points.
On the bubble:
Nobody, really. The Jaguars are closest at (+6).

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Lions (-11)
I'm inclined to agree with APR on this one. In spite of their 2-5 record, the Lions seem much improved over last year. Given their remaining schedule, I don't think 7 wins is out of reach (if Stafford &c can remain healthy).
Vikings (-9)
The Vikings drop in ESPN's power rankings has to be mostly due to the Randy Moss fiasco. So far, all APR sees is that the Vikings have lost a lot of close games, some to high ranked teams.
Chargers (-9)
Another team with a lot of close losses. They do seem pretty good at home. If they could just win on the road...
On the bubble:
No one else closer than (-3).

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

NFL: Week 8 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (4-4)

Right

Bills @ Chiefs
Panthers @ Rams
Vikings @ Patriots
Texans @ Colts

Wrong

Packers @ Jets
Of course the Packers' defense came up big, pitching a shut-out thanks in part to two recovered fumbles and two interceptions. But Tim Masthay, the Packers punter had a huge game too. He punted 8 times, and every one was downed at or inside the Jets 23 yard line. A critical performance for special teams in a game when even a couple short fields could've made the difference for the Jets.
Jaguars @ Cowboys
David Garrard and Maurice Jones-Drew both had very effective days, while John Kita threw four interceptions. This is also just the second game this season the Jaguars haven't given up at least 26 points.

Broncos "@" 49ers (London)
The Broncos offense continued to struggle: it took until the early 4th quarter to get to 10 points scored. Still, they had a chance to win, until a series of mistakes (long kick return, a bad punt and a lost fumble) gave the 49ers three short fields, which they turned into a quick 21 points.
Steelers @ Saints
This could've been another very ugly game for the Saints, who were held to just 6 points until the fourth quarter. But their defense came up big, shutting down the Steelers for most of the game, and coming up with a critical forced fumble and recovery on one of the Steelers best drives.

Split (APR: 2-3 SRS: 4-1 Line: 3-2)

Titans (APR, SRS) @ Chargers (Line)
The Titans had their troubles on offense, including a second half that only produced 6 points. But their real problem was on defense. Philip Rivers threw for 305 yards and 2 touchdowns, 5 different players carried the ball for a total of 156 yards, and the Chargers mounted 6 scoring drives against a defense that had held most of their opponents under 20 points scored.
Redskins (APR) @ Lions (SRS, Line)
You've certainly heard about it by now, but this was the game. The Redskins are out of time outs, down 6, and have 1:50 to drive 70 yards for a go-ahead touchdown. (To be fair, the Redskins struggled mightily on offense, and didn't have a 70-yard drive all game.) Mike Shanahan decides it's time to bench Donovan McNabb and send in backup Rex Grossman. Grossman is strip-sacked on his first snap, and Ndamukong Suh ran ball back for the game-clinching touchdown.
Seahawks (APR) @ Raiders (SRS, Line)
As mentioned in the game picks, the Seahawks are the worst road team in the league. Except for their one win at the Bears, they've been outscored on the road by at least 17 points every time.
Dolphins (APR, SRS) @ Bengals (Line)
The Dolphins have been inconsistent this year, but the Bengals have been awful. Carson Palmer completed just 17 passes on 38 attempts for 156 yards. It's a credit to their defense that they were in this game basically up to their final possession.
Buccaneers (APR, SRS) @ Cardinals (Line)
In a lot of ways, the Cardinals are still a good team. But the quarterback position is not one of them. Max Hall threw 16 passes, two of which the Buccaneers took back for touchdowns. Derek Anderson came in and managed to look mostly adequate, but it wasn't enough.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 6-750-51-049.5%
APR VH9-451-50-050.5%
SRS 8-552-49-051.5%
SRS VH9-454-46-154.0%
Line 7-658-43-057.4%

Monday, November 1, 2010

NFL: Week 8 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (↑3)Patriots1.0478
(LW × 1.0135)
6-1Won by 10
vs Vikings
2 (↓1)Steelers1.0426
(LW × 0.9471)
5-2Lost by 10
@ Saints
3 (↓1)Jets1.0325
(LW × 0.9540)
5-2Lost by 9
vs Packers
4 (↑2)Colts1.0176
(LW × 1.0029)
5-2Won by 13
vs Texans
5 (-)Ravens1.0121
(LW × 0.9865)
5-2Bye
6 (↓3)Titans1.0076
(LW × 0.9541)
5-3Lost by 8
@ Chargers
7 (↑4)Packers0.9843
(LW × 1.0614)
5-3Won by 9
@ Jets
8 (↓1)Chiefs0.9712
(LW × 0.9974)
5-2Won by 3
vs Bills
9 (↓1)Falcons0.9681
(LW × 1.0068)
5-2Bye
10 (-)Eagles0.9457
(LW × 1.0183)
4-3Bye
11 (↓2)Giants0.9450
(LW × 0.9875)
5-2Bye
12 (-)Dolphins0.9331
(LW × 1.0298)
4-3Won by 8
@ Bengals
13 (↑4)Chargers0.9203
(LW × 1.0528)
3-5Won by 8
vs Titans
14 (↓1)Vikings0.9107
(LW × 1.0083)
2-5Lost by 10
@ Patriots
15 (↑10)Saints0.8973
(LW × 1.0623)
5-3Won by 10
vs Steelers
16 (↑7)Lions0.8929
(LW × 1.0437)
2-5Won by 12
vs Redskins
17 (↑5)Raiders0.8927
(LW × 1.0395)
4-4Won by 30
vs Seahawks
18 (↓4)Texans0.8856
(LW × 0.9818)
4-3Lost by 13
@ Colts
19 (↓3)Bears0.8827
(LW × 0.9968)
4-3Bye
20 (↓5)Redskins0.8810
(LW × 0.9818)
4-4Lost by 12
@ Lions
21 (↓1)Rams0.8810
(LW × 1.0152)
4-4Won by 10
vs Panthers
22 (↓1)Browns0.8652
(LW × 0.9991)
2-5Bye
23 (↑3)Buccaneers0.8512
(LW × 1.0247)
5-2Won by 3
@ Cardinals
24 (↓6)Seahawks0.8468
(LW × 0.9689)
4-3Lost by 30
@ Raiders
25 (↑4)Jaguars0.8460
(LW × 1.0532)
4-4Won by 18
@ Cowboys
26 (↓2)Bengals0.8375
(LW × 0.9789)
2-5Lost by 8
vs Dolphins
27 (↑1)Cardinals0.8262
(LW × 0.9996)
3-4Lost by 3
vs Buccaneers
28 (↑2)49ers0.8194
(LW × 1.0444)
2-6Won by 8
vs Broncos
29 (↓10)Cowboys0.8055
(LW × 0.9258)
1-6Lost by 18
vs Jaguars
30 (↓3)Broncos0.8036
(LW × 0.9714)
2-6Lost by 8
@ 49ers
31 (-)Bills0.8008
(LW × 1.0426)
0-7Lost by 3
@ Chiefs
32 (-)Panthers0.7309
(LW × 1.0204)
1-6Lost by 10
@ Rams
  • Have I mentioned I'm terrible picking against the line? (Though to be fair, the Line isn't doing that great picking games either.)

  • The Patriots are #1? Well, they are the last 1-loss team, which counts for something. But given the relatively close wins over the Bills and Vikings and a near melt-down at the Chargers, they're not exactly dominant

  • And with the Jets, Steelers, and Titans all losing, it hasn't been a good week for the AFC over all. Early on it seemed like whatever AFC team made it to the Super Bowl would be an easy winner, but not so much any more. There's still a lot of football to play.

  • APR really wants to like the Chargers. To be fair, that win over the Titans was a solid victory. But they're still 0-4 on the road. Even the Broncos and Raiders have road wins.

  • And here come the Saints back up the charts. I'd be a lot more quick to jump on their band-wagon if they didn't have that awful loss to the Browns last week. But they do have a very easy schedule the rest of the way. Barring any more break downs like last week, they should get to at least 11 wins.

2010 NFL Navigation Links

This is a post of links to the regular NFL-related posts made during the 2010 season. Entries are linkified as new posts are added.

NFL 2010 Season

Week 1 Picks Power Rankings Pick Results
Week 2 Picks Power Rankings Pick Results
Week 3 Picks Power Rankings Pick Results
Week 4 Picks Power Rankings Pick Results APR/ESPN
Week 5 Picks Power Rankings Pick Results APR/ESPN
Week 6 Picks Power Rankings Pick Results APR/ESPN
Week 7 Picks Power Rankings Pick Results APR/ESPN
Week 8 Picks Power Rankings Pick Results APR/ESPN
Week 9 Picks Power Rankings Pick Results APR/ESPN
Week 10 Picks Power Rankings Pick Results APR/ESPN
Week 11 Picks Power Rankings Pick Results APR/ESPN
Week 12 Picks Power Rankings Pick Results APR/ESPN
Week 13 Picks Power Rankings Pick Results APR/ESPN
Week 14 Picks Power Rankings Pick Results APR/ESPN
Week 15 Picks Power Rankings Pick Results APR/ESPN
Week 16 Picks Power Rankings Pick Results APR/ESPN
Week 17 Picks Power Rankings Pick Results APR/ESPN
Wildcard Picks Power Rankings Pick Results
Divisional Picks Power Rankings Pick Results
Championship Picks Power Rankings Pick Results
Super Bowl Pick Power Rankings Pick Result

Wrapup

Other Stuff Posted During the 2010 Season