All line values from yahoo.com, except Chiefs @ Jaguars, which is from footballlocks.com. Line values are for comparison purposes only.
| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills @ Ravens | Ravens ρ=1.4692 | Ravens δ=19.8 | Ravens -13 |
| Steelers @ Dolphins | Steelers ρ=1.2316 | Steelers δ=15.5 | Steelers -3 |
| Patriots @ Chargers | Patriots ρ=1.1914 | Patriots δ=7.6 | Chargers -3 |
| Jaguars @ Chiefs | Chiefs ρ=1.1567 | Chiefs δ=9.5 | Chiefs -10 |
| 49ers @ Panthers | 49ers ρ=1.1490 | 49ers δ=5.0 | 49ers -3 |
| Bengals @ Falcons | Falcons ρ=1.1327 | Falcons δ=5.8 | Falcons -3 |
| Raiders @ Broncos | Broncos ρ=1.1079 | Broncos δ=9.2 | Broncos -7 |
| Eagles @ Titans | Titans ρ=1.0862 | Titans δ=6.9 | Titans -3 |
| Rams @ Buccaneers | Rams ρ=1.0756 | Rams δ=3.2 | Buccaneers -2½ |
| Giants @ Cowboys | Giants ρ=1.0707 | Giants δ=3.2 | Cowboys -3 |
| Browns @ Saints | Saints ρ=1.0644 | Saints δ=1.3 | Saints -13½ |
| Cardinals @ Seahawks | Seahawks ρ=1.0359 | Seahawks δ=10.6 | Seahawks -6 |
| Redskins @ Bears | Bears ρ=1.0303 | Bears δ=1.4 | Bears -3 |
| Vikings @ Packers | Packers ρ=1.0043 | Packers δ=2.1 | Packers -3 |
Bye: Lions, Texans, Colts, Jets
Comments:
11 unanimous games this week. APR and SRS pick the same way in all games.
This week is probably the Panthers' best chance to avoid an 0-16 season. It's also the 49ers best chance to get a road win this year.
If the Saints really have turned things around, this is a game they have to win. The Browns have been a tough opponent this season, and Colt McCoy is bound to look better against the Saints defense.
Chiefs -10 seems like a lot for a team that really hasn't proven itself yet. On the other hand, the Jaguars are scrambling for a healthy quarterback, and they've given up at least 26 points in every game since week 1.
Possible upset: Redskins @ Bears. If the Seahawks could mostly keep the Bears away from the endzone, it's not a stretch to think the Redskins defense could do a good job of shutting down the Bears too. On the other hand, they will really have to shut the Bears down—the Redskins have only scored more than 17 points twice this season.
