Monday, October 31, 2011

NFL Week 8 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Packers1.1100
(LW × 0.9977)
7-0Bye
2 (↑1)49ers1.0651
(LW × 0.9865)
6-1Won by 10
vs Browns
3 (↑2)Bills1.0479
(LW × 1.0206)
5-2Won by 23
vs Redskins
4 (↓2)Patriots1.0404
(LW × 0.9533)
5-2Lost by 8
@ Steelers
5 (↑1)Lions1.0387
(LW × 1.0141)
6-2Won by 35
@ Broncos
6 (↑1)Ravens1.0033
(LW × 0.9895)
5-2Won by 3
vs Cardinals
7 (↑2)Bengals0.9917
(LW × 1.0274)
5-2Won by 22
@ Seahawks
8 (↑5)Steelers0.9702
(LW × 1.0431)
6-2Won by 8
vs Patriots
9 (↑1)Falcons0.9638
(LW × 1.0015)
4-3Bye
10 (↓6)Saints0.9618
(LW × 0.9316)
5-3Lost by 10
@ Rams
11 (↑7)Eagles0.9574
(LW × 1.0595)
3-4Won by 27
vs Cowboys
12 (↓1)Bears0.9532
(LW × 0.9914)
4-3Bye
13 (↓1)Texans0.9485
(LW × 1.0025)
5-3Won by 10
vs Jaguars
14 (↓6)Cowboys0.9337
(LW × 0.9559)
3-4Lost by 27
@ Eagles
15 (↓1)Jets0.9119
(LW × 0.9834)
4-3Bye
16 (-)Raiders0.9090
(LW × 0.9975)
4-3Bye
17 (↓2)Chargers0.9058
(LW × 0.9856)
4-3Lost by 3
@ Chiefs
18 (↑1)Chiefs0.9012
(LW × 1.0221)
4-3Won by 3
vs Chargers
19 (↓2)Buccaneers0.8979
(LW × 0.9907)
4-3Bye
20 (-)Titans0.8807
(LW × 1.0172)
4-3Won by 17
vs Colts
21 (-)Giants0.8726
(LW × 1.0148)
5-2Won by 3
vs Dolphins
22 (↑2)Vikings0.8696
(LW × 1.0261)
2-6Won by 3
@ Panthers
23 (↓1)Redskins0.8537
(LW × 1.0014)
3-4Lost by 23
@ Bills
24 (↑2)Jaguars0.8312
(LW × 0.9921)
2-6Lost by 10
@ Texans
25 (-)Panthers0.8284
(LW × 0.9783)
2-6Lost by 3
vs Vikings
26 (↓3)Broncos0.8253
(LW × 0.9714)
2-5Lost by 35
vs Lions
27 (-)Seahawks0.8147
(LW × 0.9828)
2-5Lost by 22
vs Bengals
28 (↑1)Cardinals0.8006
(LW × 1.0382)
1-6Lost by 3
@ Ravens
29 (↓1)Browns0.7993
(LW × 1.0265)
3-4Lost by 10
@ 49ers
30 (↑2)Rams0.7544
(LW × 1.0777)
1-6Won by 10
vs Saints
31 (-)Dolphins0.7415
(LW × 1.0090)
0-7Lost by 3
@ Giants
32 (↓2)Colts0.7338
(LW × 0.9920)
0-8Lost by 17
@ Titans

Comments:

  • For the season being nearly halfway through, the standings are amazingly tight—17 Teams have 2 or 3 losses right now.

  • Are the 49ers really a top 5 team? Hard to argue against it. Alex Smith and Frank Gore are both having the best seasons of their respective careers, and their defense—especially the run defense—has been doing very good as well.

  • The biggest problem for the 49ers could be complacency. The way the rest of the NFC West is playing, they could have their division locked up before the end of November, and (if the NFC East and South teams keep stumbling) an inside track on a bye week for the playoffs as well.

  • Remember back in week 6, I said the Patriots had too many flaws to be the best team in the league? Yeah. They're not going to last long in the top 5 if they keep playing like they did on Sunday.

  • The Eagles make a big jump, and are now just outside the top 10. I'm not sure how much stock I'm willing to put in their 2-game winning streak, but it seems likely if they can hold on to the ball, they will keep winning.

  • The Ravens had some real problems protecting Joe Flacco in the first half of their game. He was sacked 3 times, lost a fumble and threw an interception. That (along with a special teams breakdown) was how the Cardinals jumped out to a 24-3 lead. Once Flacco started having some time to throw, he started hitting Anquan Boldin pretty regularly, and setting up some short touchdown runs for Ray Rice.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

NFL Week 8 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Saints @
Rams
Saints
ρ=1.4748
Saints*
δ=27.7
Saints
-15½
Browns @
49ers
49ers
ρ=1.3864
49ers
δ=23.4
49ers
-9
Cardinals @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.3149
Ravens
δ=18.4
Ravens
-13
Lions @
Broncos
Lions
ρ=1.2055
Lions*
δ=16.5
Lions
-3½
Redskins @
Bills
Bills
ρ=1.2044
Bills
δ=9.7
Bills
-6
Patriots @
Steelers
Patriots
ρ=1.1733
Patriots*
δ=8.3
Patriots
-2½
Colts @
Titans
Titans
ρ=1.1705
Titans
δ=11.8
Titans
-9
Dolphins @
Giants
Giants
ρ=1.1700
Giants
δ=5.6
Giants
-10
Bengals @
Seahawks
Bengals
ρ=1.1645
Bengals*
δ=7.6
Bengals
-2½
Jaguars @
Texans
Texans
ρ=1.1293
Texans
δ=10.4
Texans
-9½
Cowboys @
Eagles
Cowboys
ρ=1.0809
Cowboys*
δ=6.6
Eagles
-3½
Chargers @
Chiefs
Chargers
ρ=1.0424
Chargers*
δ=7.1
Chargers
-3
Vikings @
Panthers
Vikings*
ρ=1.0008
Panthers
δ=2.9
Panthers
-3

Bye: Falcons, Bears, Packers, Jets, Raiders, Buccaneers

Comments:

  • Only two split picks this week, including the Rookie vs. Rookie matchup of Vikings @ Panthers. I've got to agree with the Line on this one—Cam Newton, with more experience as a starter, playing at home, should have the advantage.

  • On the other hand, if the Cowboys are underrated right now, this is a game they need to win. The Eagles have given up more turnovers than any other team in the league (17), and the Cowboys aren't that far behind (13), so like most games for these two teams, the outcome will be determined by who takes better care of the ball.

  • Four years ago, the Lions got off to a 6-2 start, before spiraling into an epic 5-33 losing streak that stretched over four seasons. Their last win on that 6-2 start was a dominating game over the Denver Broncos. Now, they need to beat the Broncos again to avoid a 3-game losing streak that, while much shorter, could seem just as disasterous to a team that is still trying to establish its confidence.

  • Bengals are another team facing a tough road game, and one that should give us some idea of how good they are. Even as bad as the Seahawks have been on the road, they've been a tough team to beat at home.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

NFL Week 7 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 7 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Giants (+10)
APR and ESPN both hold the Giants steady. They had their bye this week, so there's nothing new to add to what I said last week.
On the bubble:
Steelers (+8)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Cowboys (-10)
The Cowboys manage to beat one of the weakest teams in the league, which makes them look one spot worse to APR and three spots better to ESPN. Given the strong APR/ESPN disagreement on the Giants and Cowboys, it will be very interesting to see how their regular season series plays out.
On the bubble:
Bengals (-7)

NFL Week 7 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

If this week has a theme, it might be "no matter how bad your starting QB is, your backup could be far worse".

Unanimous Picks (5-3)

Right:
Rams @ Cowboys
Colts @ Saints
Packers @ Vikings
Steelers @ Cardinals
Bears "@" Buccaneers (London)

Wrong:

Chiefs @ Raiders
This was not a good game for the Chiefs offense: 7 punts and 2 interceptions. But it was far, far worse for the Raiders. Six interceptions, including two pick-6es, and only two drives that went longer than 44 yards. Unless Carson Palmer can get up to playing speed fast, the Raiders playoff hopes ended with Jason Campbell's season.
Falcons @ Lions
The Lions had a bad day on offense, posting the fewest points (16) and fewest yards from scrimmage (263) of the season. What's worse, they did it at home, against one of the weaker defenses of the league (the Falcons' D is #19 in points allowed, #20 in yards allowed).
Ravens @ Jaguars
Joe Flacco has had 3 pretty bad games already this season. Against the Titans, Jets, and Jaguars, he's averaged 166 passing yards, a 46% completion rate, with 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. And when the defense doesn't score, the result is games like this, where the Ravens lose because the offense can't score two touchdowns.

Split Picks: (APR: 2-3, SRS 3-2, Line 2-3)

Broncos (APR, SRS) @ Dolphins (Line)
The Dolphins are a really bad team, maybe worse than the 2007 squad that went 1-15. And after an 0-6 start that has culminated with a 15-point lead blown in the final 5:34 of regulation, it seems almost certain that Tony Sparano has lost his team.
Texans (SRS) @ Titans (APR, Line)
The Titans had a terrible game: Matt Hasselbeck barely broke 100 yards passing, Chris Johnson failed to get even 55 yards rushing for the 4th time this season, and the defense gave up one long scoring drive after another. If the Titans are going to challenge the Texans for the AFC South, they're going to have to play a lot better than that.
Chargers (Line) @ Jets (APR, SRS)
Antonio Gates is a big piece of the Chargers offense, and getting him back on the field is the answer to my (implicit) question as to why the line favored the Chargers in this game. But even with Gates on the field, it wasn't enough for the Chargers, who faced a solid defense for the first time this season.

Redskins (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)
The Redskins struggled on both sides of the ball. The offense had 6 drives end with a punt, lost fumble, interception, or failed 4th down try. The defense gave up five drives of 53+ yards, all ending with a score. With no good choice for quarterback, and Tim Hightower done for the season, the Redskins are another team whose playoff hopes are probably over.
Seahawks (APR, SRS) @ Browns (Line)
An exercise in offensive futility by the Seahawks. Their second-longest drive went 14(!) yards. The Browns had more than twice as many yards on offense, but an interception and a couple blocked field goal attempts made this game much closer than it should have been.

Totals

Not really a good week for anybody this time around.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 7-652-34-160.3%
SRS 8-554-32-162.6%
Line 7-660-27-069.0%

Monday, October 24, 2011

NFL Week 7 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (↑1)Packers1.1125
(LW × 1.0078)
7-0Won by 6
@ Vikings
2 (↓1)Patriots1.0913
(LW × 0.9772)
5-1Bye
3 (-)49ers1.0796
(LW × 0.9848)
5-1Bye
4 (↑4)Saints1.0324
(LW × 1.0271)
5-2Won by 55
vs Colts
5 (↑1)Bills1.0267
(LW × 0.9939)
4-2Bye
6 (↓1)Lions1.0243
(LW × 0.9599)
5-2Lost by 7
vs Falcons
7 (↓3)Ravens1.0140
(LW × 0.9432)
4-2Lost by 5
@ Jaguars
8 (↓1)Cowboys0.9767
(LW × 0.9579)
3-3Won by 27
vs Rams
9 (↑1)Bengals0.9652
(LW × 1.0060)
4-2Bye
10 (↑10)Falcons0.9624
(LW × 1.0786)
4-3Won by 7
@ Lions
11 (↑2)Bears0.9615
(LW × 1.0449)
4-3Won by 6
@ Buccaneers
12 (↑3)Texans0.9462
(LW × 1.0359)
4-3Won by 34
@ Titans
13 (↑1)Steelers0.9301
(LW × 1.0113)
5-2Won by 12
@ Cardinals
14 (↓3)Jets0.9273
(LW × 0.9824)
4-3Won by 6
vs Chargers
15 (↑1)Chargers0.9191
(LW × 1.0097)
4-2Lost by 6
@ Jets
16 (↓7)Raiders0.9113
(LW × 0.9197)
4-3Lost by 28
vs Chiefs
17 (↑1)Buccaneers0.9064
(LW × 1.0026)
4-3Lost by 6
vs Bears
18 (↓1)Eagles0.9036
(LW × 0.9935)
2-4Bye
19 (↑6)Chiefs0.8817
(LW × 1.0936)
3-3Won by 28
@ Raiders
20 (↓8)Titans0.8658
(LW × 0.9300)
3-3Lost by 34
vs Texans
21 (-)Giants0.8599
(LW × 0.9815)
4-2Bye
22 (↓3)Redskins0.8525
(LW × 0.9454)
3-3Lost by 13
@ Panthers
23 (↓1)Broncos0.8497
(LW × 0.9787)
2-4Won by 3
@ Dolphins
24 (-)Vikings0.8475
(LW × 1.0362)
1-6Lost by 6
vs Packers
25 (↑2)Panthers0.8468
(LW × 1.0669)
2-5Won by 13
vs Redskins
26 (-)Jaguars0.8378
(LW × 1.0502)
2-5Won by 5
vs Ravens
27 (↓4)Seahawks0.8289
(LW × 0.9876)
2-4Lost by 3
@ Browns
28 (↑1)Browns0.7787
(LW × 1.0020)
3-3Won by 3
vs Seahawks
29 (↓1)Cardinals0.7712
(LW × 0.9829)
1-5Lost by 12
vs Steelers
30 (↑1)Colts0.7397
(LW × 1.0265)
0-7Lost by 55
@ Saints
31 (↓1)Dolphins0.7349
(LW × 0.9994)
0-6Lost by 3
vs Broncos
32 (-)Rams0.7000
(LW × 0.9824)
0-6Lost by 27
@ Cowboys

Comments:

  • Once again the Packers win, in spite of an (at times, anyway) unimpressive performance by the defense. They're all but guaranteed a playoff spot at this point, but they're going to have to do a lot better to advance in January, I think.

  • Every team the Packers have played (excepting the Vikings, of course) won this weekend, giving them enough to get back up to the #1 spot.

  • I was thinking that the Ravens could be the best team in the NFL... but so far, their road games have been a win over the hapless Rams, and two face-plants against a couple unimpressive AFC South teams. They don't have a very tough road schedule, but when they can't even beat the Jaguars, it doesn't look good.

  • Is that the end of Matt Hasselbeck's late-career resurgence? The fact that he hasn't been able to put together a season's worth of quality play is why he's not starting for the Seahawks anymore. Of course, the fact that Charles Johnson is having a very poor season isn't helping anything.

  • After an 0-3 start that made them look like perhaps the worst team in the league, the Chiefs have won 3 in a row. And with a 3-game homestand coming up against the Chargers, Dolphins and Broncos, they could actually claw their way up to 6-3 before hitting the next tough stretch of their schedule.

  • That really was an awful performance by the Colts Sunday night. It's the biggest loss since 2009, and one of only a handful of losses by 50+ points since 1970. Not all of that can be blamed on missing Peyton Manning.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

NFL Week 7 Picks

Update: now with a full complement of k's

GameAPRSRSLine
Rams @
Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.4309
Cowboys
δ=19.2
Cowboys
-13
Colts @
Saints
Saints
ρ=1.3949
Saints
δ=18.1
Saints
-14
Packers @
Vikings
Packers
ρ=1.3498
Packers*
δ=18.5
Packers
-9
Ravens @
Jaguars
Ravens
ρ=1.3475
Ravens*
δ=23.4
Ravens
-8
Chiefs @
Raiders
Raiders
ρ=1.2289
Raiders
δ=19.8
Raiders
-3½
Falcons @
Lions
Lions
ρ=1.1958
Lions
δ=11.8
Lions
-3½
Broncos @
Dolphins
Broncos
ρ=1.1805
Broncos*
δ=5.3
Dolphins
-2
Steelers @
Cardinals
Steelers*
ρ=1.1723
Steelers*
δ=10.7
Steelers
-3½
Redskins @
Panthers
Redskins
ρ=1.1360
Redskins*
δ=3.8
Panthers
-1
Seahawks @
Browns
Seahawks
ρ=1.0801
Seahawks*
δ=3.0
Browns
-2½
Chargers @
Jets
Jets
ρ=1.0369
Jets
δ=8.3
Chargers
-1
Texans @
Titans
Titans
ρ=1.0192
Texans*
δ=1.8
Titans
-3
Bears @
Buccaneers
Bears*
ρ=1.0178
Bears*
δ=8.8
Bears
-1

Bye: Bills, Bengals, Patriots, Giants, Eagles, 49ers

Comments:

  • Another week with a lot of narrow lines. Only four games wider than 3½ points.

  • Another likely snoozer for the Sunday night game. I wonder how hard NBC will push for the ability to flex games earlier in the season when their contract comes up for renewal?

  • The Jets have had 3 pretty ugly losses so far, but they've played a tough schedule. The Chargers are 4-1, but with unimpressive wins over weak teams. I'm surprised the Line isn't going with the Jets here, especially at home, and against a team that has to fly coast-to-coast to get to the game.

  • John Beck will reportedly be starting for the Redskins this week, so the Panthers defense may actually be able to carry them to their second win.

  • Tim Tebow and the Brandon Lloyd-less Broncos will pay a visit to the winless Miami Dolphins this week. Hard to imagine that anything except a train-wreck of a game. This is probably also the Dolphins best chance to get a win this season.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

NFL Week 6 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 6 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Giants (+10)
A little closer than last week. Maybe APR has them underrated at #21, but given the way the Giants struggled against the Cardinals and Seahawks, I'm not sure how much higher they should really go right now.
Chargers (+9)
The good news for the Chargers is that they've actually managed a decent start at 4-1. The bad news is, the 4 teams they beat are a combined 4-17, and none of those wins were a blow-out you'd expect when a good team plays a very bad one. I've learned my lesson (at least for the moment) about making absolute pronouncements, but I will say that the Chargers are not showing the signs of a top-10 team.
On the bubble:
Nobody closer than +6 (Steelers, Bucs, Browns)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Cowboys (-14)
APR likes close losses more than it should, and the Cowboys have a bunch: their 3 losses are by a combined 11 points, all to highly-ranked teams. I'm willing to stipulate that they're not a top-10 team right now, but ESPN's ranking of #21 is too low as well.
On the bubble:
Bengals (-8)

NFL Week 6 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

We have something of a theme this week in the pick results. That theme is "Throwing interceptions is bad. Throwing multiple interceptions is really, really bad."

Unanimous Picks (8-1)

Right:
Rams @ Packers
Colts @ Bengals
Browns @ Raiders
Cowboys @ Patriots
Jaguars @ Steelers
Texans @ Ravens
Vikings @ Bears
Dolphins @ Jets

Wrong:

Saints @ Buccaneers
Last week, I called the Buccaneers a bad team, and to be honest, this game doesn't really change my mind. it is possible to have a +4 turnover differential and still lose, but it sure hasn't happened very often. It's also worth noting that this is the first game this season the Bucs have had better than a +1 turnover differential.

Split Picks: (APR: 1-3, SRS 1-3, Line 3-1)

APR: 9-4 SRS: 9-4, Line 11-2
Bills (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)
Of the three teams I called 'bad' last week, the Giants are least deserving. When they play well (e.g. when Eli's receivers don't tip the ball into the hands of opposing DBs), the Giants can be very good. The problem is, when they don't play well (as evidenced a week ago), they can be really, really bad.
As a side note, I should mention that I should've been more skeptical of a Bills team that twice needed 3-score comebacks to win, and faltered against the Bengals.
Eagles (Line) @ Redskins (APR, SRS)
There is a reason that Rex Grossman is no longer the starting quarterback for the Bears. It is what is technically known as "Bad Rex", and featured prominently in this game. I'm not sure this proves much of anything about the Eagles, except that they, too, can win a game if you give them four extra chances at possessing the ball.
49ers (SRS) @ Lions (APR, Line)
Both teams in this game seemed somewhat similar: fairly good defenses, and somewhat limited offenses. The difference was that the 49ers were able to make good use of their best offensive players (Ted Ginn on kick and punt returns, and Frank Gore running the ball), while limiting the Lions best players (Calvin Johnson had 113 yards receiving, but no touchdowns, and Jahvid Best had only 37 yards rushing).
Panthers (SRS) @ Falcons (APR, Line)
Four times this season, the Panthers have given up 28+ points, and each of those four times, they've lost. The problems have been widespread: special teams breakdowns, turnovers, and plain old defensive failure. This game is also the third time this season the Panthers have had a 4th-quarter lead and been unable to hold it. The Panthers may not be that far from having a winning team, but they need to learn how to keep it together for 60 minutes.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 9-445-28-161.5%
SRS 9-446-27-162.8%
Line11-253-21-071.6%

Monday, October 17, 2011

NFL Week 6 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (↑1)Patriots1.1168
(LW × 0.9628)
5-1Won by 4
vs Cowboys
2 (↓1)Packers1.1040
(LW × 0.9510)
6-0Won by 21
vs Rams
3 (↑4)49ers1.0962
(LW × 1.0650)
5-1Won by 6
@ Lions
4 (↑4)Ravens1.0751
(LW × 1.0477)
4-1Won by 15
vs Texans
5 (↓2)Lions1.0670
(LW × 0.9725)
5-1Lost by 6
vs 49ers
6 (↓2)Bills1.0330
(LW × 0.9515)
4-2Lost by 3
@ Giants
7 (↑2)Cowboys1.0196
(LW × 1.0154)
2-3Lost by 4
@ Patriots
8 (↓3)Saints1.0052
(LW × 0.9417)
4-2Lost by 6
@ Buccaneers
9 (↓3)Raiders0.9908
(LW × 0.9530)
4-2Won by 7
vs Browns
10 (-)Bengals0.9595
(LW × 0.9765)
4-2Won by 10
vs Colts
11 (↑1)Jets0.9439
(LW × 0.9949)
3-3Won by 18
vs Dolphins
12 (↑2)Titans0.9310
(LW × 1.0058)
3-2Bye
13 (↑4)Bears0.9202
(LW × 1.0040)
3-3Won by 29
vs Vikings
14 (↑2)Steelers0.9197
(LW × 0.9994)
4-2Won by 4
vs Jaguars
15 (↓4)Texans0.9134
(LW × 0.9535)
3-3Lost by 15
@ Ravens
16 (↓3)Chargers0.9103
(LW × 0.9671)
4-1Bye
17 (↑7)Eagles0.9096
(LW × 1.1056)
2-4Won by 7
@ Redskins
18 (↑1)Buccaneers0.9040
(LW × 1.0529)
4-2Won by 6
vs Saints
19 (↓4)Redskins0.9017
(LW × 0.9792)
3-2Lost by 7
vs Eagles
20 (↑1)Falcons0.8923
(LW × 1.0604)
3-3Won by 14
vs Panthers
21 (↑6)Giants0.8761
(LW × 1.0928)
4-2Won by 3
vs Bills
22 (↓4)Broncos0.8681
(LW × 0.9708)
1-4Bye
23 (↑2)Seahawks0.8394
(LW × 1.0421)
2-3Bye
24 (↓4)Vikings0.8179
(LW × 0.9573)
1-5Lost by 29
@ Bears
25 (↓2)Chiefs0.8063
(LW × 0.9756)
2-3Bye
26 (-)Jaguars0.7978
(LW × 0.9926)
1-5Lost by 4
@ Steelers
27 (↓5)Panthers0.7937
(LW × 0.9469)
1-5Lost by 14
@ Falcons
28 (-)Cardinals0.7846
(LW × 1.0013)
1-4Bye
29 (-)Browns0.7771
(LW × 1.0164)
2-3Lost by 7
@ Raiders
30 (-)Dolphins0.7354
(LW × 0.9671)
0-5Lost by 18
@ Jets
31 (-)Colts0.7206
(LW × 1.0266)
0-6Lost by 10
@ Bengals
32 (-)Rams0.7126
(LW × 1.0937)
0-5Lost by 21
@ Packers

Comments:

  • Well. So much for absolute pronouncements about how bad the Giants, Eagles, and Buccaneers are. Of course, even a bad team can get a win when their opposing QB throws 4 interceptions (yeah, I'm looking at you, Rex Grossman).

  • The Packers dispatched the Rams without too much fuss. But it is troubling that they are the only team (so far) not to rush for at least 100 yards on the Rams very weak rush defense. The Rams gave up 168+ yards rushing to the Eagles, Ravens, and Redskins.

  • The Packers' weak schedule finally cost them the top spot. The Bears' dominating win Sunday night saved them from falling even farther.

  • The Patriots defense is too weak, and Brady has been too prone to throwing interceptions for the Patriots to be the best team in the league right now. But they have beat a pretty solid roster of opponents so far, which gets them APR's top spot, at least for a week.

  • After nearly a decade of also-ran status, the 49ers have jumped out to one of the best records in the NFL. And with a pretty easy remaining schedule, they could easily get to 10 or more wins, as long as they continue to play at the same level.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

NFL Week 6 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Rams @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.7818
Packers
δ=27.9
Packers
-15½
Colts @
Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.3997
Bengals
δ=17.9
Bengals
-7
Browns @
Raiders
Raiders
ρ=1.3599
Raiders
δ=15.4
Raiders
-7
Bills @
Giants
Bills
ρ=1.3542
Bills*
δ=16.2
Giants
-3
Dolphins @
Jets
Jets
ρ=1.2477
Jets
δ=12.1
Jets
-7
Saints @
Buccaneers
Saints
ρ=1.2432
Saints*
δ=16.3
Saints
-4
Cowboys @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.1552
Patriots
δ=6.2
Patriots
-7
Jaguars @
Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.1450
Steelers
δ=10.5
Steelers
-13
Eagles @
Redskins
Redskins
ρ=1.1193
Redskins
δ=1.4
Eagles
-1
Vikings @
Bears
Bears
ρ=1.0727
Bears
δ=4.7
Bears
-2½
Texans @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.0711
Ravens
δ=8.3
Ravens
-8
49ers @
Lions
Lions
ρ=1.0660
49ers*
δ=0.8
Lions
-4
Panthers @
Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.0038
Panthers*
δ=4.0
Falcons
-3½

Bye: Cardinals, Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers, Seahawks, Titans

Comments:

  • Once again, the Bills are underdogs to a team that's looked really bad so far. I'm going with APR on this one. The Giants are in trouble, even if they are playing at home.

  • And the Eagles are somehow favored on the road over the Redskins? The Redskins haven't exactly been beating the class of the NFL, but they have been winning, which is more than can be said of the Eagles.

  • At 2-3, the Bears and Falcons are both on the brink of a lost season. A win this week means a 3-3 record, and a chance to claw back into contention. A loss means 2-4, and a long way back (especially for the Bears, who are already 3 games behind the Packers and Lions).

  • Who would've guessed that 49ers @ Lions would be one of the best matchups this week? One of these teams should come out of this game with a quality win, and a boost to their confidence for the stretch run to the playoffs.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

NFL Week 5 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 5 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Giants (+13)
In spite of their (at the moment) winning record, this is a very bad Giants team. As pointed out in the week 5 power rankings, the three teams the Giants beat are a combined 2-12. They are, perhaps, not as bad as their current #27 ranking, but there's simply no way they belong in the top half of the league right now.
On the bubble:
Steelers (+8), Browns (+6), Chargers (+6).

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Bengals (-10)
The Bengals are probably overrated at #10, but there aren't that many teams below them that seem solidly better, either. And looking at ESPN's rankings, I'd say the Bengals are easily better than the Falcons, Bears, Buccaneers, and Giants right now.
Broncos (-9)
The Broncos have 3 close losses, something that APR loves to love. APR is moving them down the rankings pretty steadily, though, and it says something about how poorly they're regarded that a #18 ranking qualifies as "overrated".
On the bubble:
Cowboys (-6), Vikings (-6)

NFL Week 5 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (5-1)

Right:
Packers @ Falcons
Saints @ Panthers
Jets @ Patriots
Buccaneers @ 49ers
Bears @ Lions

Wrong:

Seahawks @ Giants
This was an offensive melt-down for the Giants. Thirteen (13!) drives ended with a punt, fumble, interception, or safety. The Seahawks take advantage, and come away with just their 3rd road win outside the division since 2006.

Split Picks: (APR: 4-3, SRS 2-5, Line 3-4)

Another good week for APR, successfully picking one home and three road underdogs!

Titans (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)
The Steelers put up perhaps their best offensive effort of the season, with 174 rushing yards and 5 passing touchdowns. The Titans fell behind early, and didn't have a way to keep up, especially with Chris Johnson having another bad day.
Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Vikings (Line)
The Cardinals helped the the Vikings get off to a quick start with an interception, a lost fumble, and terrible run defense. The Vikings didn't do much of anything after the first quarter, but they didn't have to, because a 28-point deficit was way more than the Cardinals were able to overcome.
Chargers (Line) @ Broncos (APR, SRS)
Kyle Orton is, at best, a journeyman quarterback. This was not one of his best days—6/13 for 34 yards and a pick through two quarters. Meanwhile, the Chargers continue to look unimpressive, almost letting Tim Tebow and his limited offensive skill set steal a win.
Eagles (Line) @ Bills (APR, SRS)
I speculated the Bills should be favored in this game because of the Eagles bad defense. Ironically, the Eagles defense probably could've carried them in this game, if Michael Vick had not thrown 4 interceptions.
Chiefs (APR) @ Colts (SRS, Line)
The Colts are another team that seem to find a new way every week to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. How bad is their defense, that they couldn't hold a 21-point lead on what had seemed until now a very anemic Chiefs offense?
Bengals (APR, SRS) @ Jaguars (Line)
A close game (in spite of a last-second fumble return touchdown). The Bengals' defense came up big in this one, holding the Jaguars to field goals after twice having first-and-goal. That's 8 points the Jaguars left on the field, a crucial difference in a game that was essentially decided by 3 points.
Raiders (APR) @ Texans (SRS, Line)
The Raiders' defense carried the day for them, holding the Texans to just 20 points. Special mention should also be made to Sebastian Janikowski, who made 3 field goals of 50+ yards.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 9-436-24-159.8%
SRS 7-637-23-161.4%
Line8-542-19-068.9%

Monday, October 10, 2011

NFL Week 5 Power Rankings

Update: Sorry, long day. As you probably figured out, this is power rankings, not pick results.

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Packers1.1608
(LW × 0.9449)
5-0Won by 11
@ Falcons
2 (-)Patriots1.1600
(LW × 1.0091)
4-1Won by 9
vs Jets
3 (↑2)Lions1.0972
(LW × 1.0310)
5-0Won by 11
vs Bears
4 (-)Bills1.0857
(LW × 0.9872)
4-1Won by 7
vs Eagles
5 (↓2)Saints1.0675
(LW × 0.9449)
4-1Won by 3
@ Panthers
6 (↑2)Raiders1.0397
(LW × 1.0029)
3-2Won by 5
@ Texans
7 (↑4)49ers1.0293
(LW × 1.0584)
4-1Won by 45
vs Buccaneers
8 (↓2)Ravens1.0261
(LW × 0.9818)
3-1Bye
9 (-)Cowboys1.0041
(LW × 1.0071)
2-2Bye
10 (-)Bengals0.9825
(LW × 1.0093)
3-2Won by 10
@ Jaguars
11 (↑2)Texans0.9579
(LW × 0.9965)
3-2Lost by 5
vs Raiders
12 (↑3)Jets0.9488
(LW × 0.9914)
2-3Lost by 9
@ Patriots
13 (↑5)Chargers0.9412
(LW × 1.0645)
4-1Won by 5
@ Broncos
14 (↓7)Titans0.9256
(LW × 0.8914)
3-2Lost by 21
@ Steelers
15 (↓3)Redskins0.9208
(LW × 0.9469)
3-1Bye
16 (↑7)Steelers0.9203
(LW × 1.0957)
3-2Won by 21
vs Titans
17 (↓1)Bears0.9165
(LW × 0.9781)
2-3Lost by 11
@ Lions
18 (↓4)Broncos0.8943
(LW × 0.9343)
1-4Lost by 5
vs Chargers
19 (↑2)Buccaneers0.8586
(LW × 1.0053)
3-2Lost by 45
@ 49ers
20 (↑7)Vikings0.8543
(LW × 1.0850)
1-4Won by 24
vs Cardinals
21 (↑3)Falcons0.8415
(LW × 1.0367)
2-3Lost by 11
vs Packers
22 (↓3)Panthers0.8383
(LW × 0.9674)
1-4Lost by 3
vs Saints
23 (↑3)Chiefs0.8264
(LW × 1.0423)
2-3Won by 4
@ Colts
24 (↑1)Eagles0.8227
(LW × 1.0178)
1-4Lost by 7
@ Bills
25 (↑5)Seahawks0.8055
(LW × 1.0983)
2-3Won by 11
@ Giants
26 (↓6)Jaguars0.8037
(LW × 0.9308)
1-4Lost by 10
vs Bengals
27 (↓10)Giants0.8017
(LW × 0.8991)
3-2Lost by 11
vs Seahawks
28 (↓6)Cardinals0.7835
(LW × 0.9248)
1-4Lost by 24
@ Vikings
29 (↓1)Browns0.7646
(LW × 0.9797)
2-2Bye
30 (↓1)Dolphins0.7604
(LW × 1.0139)
0-4Bye
31 (-)Colts0.7020
(LW × 1.0216)
0-5Lost by 4
vs Chiefs
32 (-)Rams0.6515
(LW × 0.9602)
0-4Bye

Comments:

  • The Packers are paying the price for a weak schedule so far (the Saint excepted), and are now just barely above the #2 Patriots.

  • So, who had the Lions, Bills, Raiders and 49ers in the top 10 at this point? I'm not sure how "for real" any of those teams are, but there's a lot supposed contenders that would love to have 3 or 4 wins right now.

  • Note the Giants (3-2) at #27. Before you claim they're underrated, consider the fact that the 3 teams they beat are a combined 2-12, and they just lost in pretty convincing fashion to the Seattle Seahawks.

  • And while we're on the topic of the NFC West, my prediction of this division coming down to the Cardinals and Rams is looking particularly awful. But who would've guessed the 49ers would be 4-1 right now (and could've been 5-0)?

  • Continuing on with the topic of bad teams, at one point on Sunday, the Colts had a 24-7 lead, and then allowed 21 unanswered points. The Colts problems are more than just at quarterback when they can't keep the Chiefs from scoring repeatedly.

  • Is the Bears' defense done? Week 1 against the Falcons was the only game this season they held their opponent to less than 24 points.

Friday, October 7, 2011

NFL Q1 Strength of Schedule

This table is APR's first quarter strength of schedule results. Each team's "unplayed" strength of schedule was computed by combining the power index value of every team remaining on the schedule (using the week 4 power index values of each team). Similarly, the "played" strength of schedule was computed using the power index of teams already played.

A higher value indicates tougher opponents, and therefore a harder schedule. Teams are ranked from hardest schedule (#1) to easiest (#32).

RankTeamSOS
unplayed
RankSOS
played
1Vikings0.9927170.8934
2Chargers0.9920220.8565
3Buccaneers0.9761310.8268
4Lions0.9715240.8539
5Giants0.9709320.8199
6Dolphins0.9707130.9345
7Colts0.9541230.8565
8Falcons0.9437300.8299
9Chiefs0.9402110.9501
10Eagles0.9344290.8313
11Jets0.930870.9828
12Bills0.919280.9793
13Broncos0.919011.0652
14Panthers0.9147100.9579
15Rams0.9100150.9251
16Bears0.905530.9940
17Steelers0.8982270.8435
18Texans0.8975280.8362
19Browns0.8951250.8496
20Redskins0.8928260.8455
21Raiders0.892421.0373
22Patriots0.8851140.9325
23Titans0.8847160.9061
24Packers0.874790.9680
25Seahawks0.8735200.8657
26Jaguars0.868940.9931
27Cowboys0.863750.9907
28Bengals0.8538120.9454
29Ravens0.8527190.8675
30Cardinals0.8464210.8616
3149ers0.8441180.8709
32Saints0.843960.9887

Comments:

  • The teams with the top 5 hardest remaining schedules are all seeing significant increases in the power of their opponents. That's going to be particularly bad news for the Vikings, who won't find it easy to put their ugly 0-4 start behind them.

  • The Lions are one of those teams with a bunch of tough opponents left on their schedule. They're going to have trouble if they keep using that "fall behind early, catch up late" strategy to win games.

  • The Packers have a couple of top-10 teams (Lions and Raiders) left on their schedule. But everyone else is ranked #16 or lower, including four in the bottom 10 (Falcons, Chiefs, Vikings, and Rams).

  • The Packers may be glad to have the head-to-head tie break over the Saints, though. The Saints have the easiest schedule remaining of any team, with all but two of their opponents in the bottom half of the rankings, including the Vikings (#27), Colts (#31), and Rams (#32).

  • Could the Bengals sneak into the playoffs this year? I don't think they can get by the Ravens to win the AFC North, but a 2-2 start, and an easy remaining schedule might be enough for one of the wildcard spots.

  • Good news for the Cowboys, too. In spite of all the drama, they're still just a game out of first place in the NFC East, with the easiest remaining schedule of any team in that division.

  • I'm still not sold on the 49ers. But given their easy remaining schedule, and the fact that they've swept the Cardinals 3 of the last 4 seasons, they at least have the inside track to win the NFC West right now.

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

NFL Week 5 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Packers @
Falcons
Packers
ρ=1.5135
Packers*
δ=25.8
Packers
-6
Eagles @
Bills
Bills
ρ=1.3606
Bills
δ=15.0
Eagles
-2½
Saints @
Panthers
Saints
ρ=1.3038
Saints*
δ=13.0
Saints
-6½
Titans @
Steelers
Titans*
ρ=1.2363
Titans*
δ=12.3
Steelers
-3
Seahawks @
Giants
Giants
ρ=1.2158
Giants
δ=11.3
Giants
-9½
Jets @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.2012
Patriots
δ=3.7
Patriots
-9½
Chiefs @
Colts
Chiefs
ρ=1.1539
Colts
δ=5.3
Colts
-1½
Buccaneers @
49ers
49ers*
ρ=1.1387
49ers
δ=5.9
49ers
-2½
Bears @
Lions
Lions
ρ=1.1358
Lions
δ=3.4
Lions
-6
Bengals @
Jaguars
Bengals*
ρ=1.1274
Bengals*
δ=7.2
Jaguars
-1½
Chargers @
Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.0825
Broncos
δ=6.1
Chargers
-4
Raiders @
Texans
Raiders
ρ=1.0784
Texans
δ=0.4
Texans
-6
Cardinals @
Vikings
Cardinals*
ρ=1.0760
Cardinals*
δ=5.8
Vikings
-1½

Bye: Ravens, Browns, Cowboys, Dolphins, Rams, Redskins

Comments:

  • If the Packers win this week, they will be 5-0 for the first time since 1965.

  • The Packers -6?! The Packers have scored more points (148) than any other team in the league. And only 5 teams have have given up more points (105) than the Falcons. Maybe the Roddy White and Julio Jones can light up the Packers' secondary, but unless the Packers' offense does a complete face-plant, the Falcons will have to score early and often to have any chance to keep up.

  • Chiefs @ Colts and Cardinals @ Vikings are a couple early matchups that could weigh heavily in determining who gets the #1 pick in the draft next April.

  • That's a lot of really narrow lines. Out of all of them, I'm most surprised the Line isn't taking the Bills at home against the Eagles and their terrible defense.

  • On the other hand, it's interesting that not even the Line is taking the Buccaneers over the 49ers. I'm still not sold that the 49ers have made a lasting change, but like I said in APR vs. ESPN—the Buccaneers are showing signs of being a pretty weak team.

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

NFL Week 4 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 4 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Chargers (+11)
The Chargers are one of those teams ESPN loves to love. But with three relatively close wins against teams that are a combined 1-11, they've got a long way to go to deserve a spot in the top 10.
Steelers (+10)
The Steelers just aren't as dominating as they were last year. Ironically, they looked as competitive as they have all season in Sunday's loss, but the fact remains they're 2-2 and still looking for a win over a quality opponent.
Buccaneers (+10)
The Bucs are another team with three close wins against opponents that are a combined 1-11. Unlike the Chargers, the wins have been really close (by 4, 3, and 7 points). One of the things I've learned from watching APR work: a lot of close wins against bad teams is a very reliable sign of a team that will lose consistently against even mid-level opponents.
On the bubble:
Giants (+7), Texans (+7), Browns (+6)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Broncos (-13)
To the Broncos credit, they did play close games against three pretty good teams. Unfortunately, they went 1-2 in those games, and then got destroyed by the Packers.
Bengals (-11)
Maybe it's just the soft bigotry of low expectations, but to my eye, the Bengals have been doing surprisingly well this year. And with the Jaguars, Colts, and Seahawks coming up, they could actually be 5-2 going into week 9.
On the bubble:
Cowboys (-8), Raiders (-7)
Tony Romo would find it a lot easier to shake that 'choker' label if he would stop doing it.

NFL Week 4 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (6-1)

Right:
Redskins @ Rams
Saints @ Jaguars
Broncos @ Packers
Steelers @ Texans
Panthers @ Bears
Colts @ Buccaneers

Wrong:

Bills @ Bengals
Given the Bills habit of giving up big early leads, it's no surprise the they lost sooner rather than later. What is a surprise is that rookie Andy Dalton has managed to lead the Bengals to a 2-2 record, and they've been in every game right to the end.

Split Picks: (APR: 5-4, SRS 5-4, Line 4-5)

Titans (APR, SRS) @ Browns (Line)
Matt Hasselbeck had a 50% completion rate, but the ones he did complete made the difference: 220 yards for 3 touchdowns. It didn't hurt that Chris Johnson had his first productive day of the season (23 carries 101 yards). This is also the difference having a decent QB makes: the Titans' offense didn't disappear just because Kenny Britt wasn't available.
49ers (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)
The Eagles defense is really bad. The Giants have been the only team so far not to rush for at least 138 yards against them, and every opponent has had at least 318 total yards. Michael Vick's real problem is his offense needs to score at least 28 points every game just to have a chance to win.
Jets (APR, SRS) @ Ravens (Line)
Neither one of these offenses looked very good at all (Flacco and Sanchez were both below 33% completion rate). The Ravens had the benefit of an early lead, as well as experience hunkering down to protect that lead. The Jets, on the other hand, had no answer for the Ravens' smothering defense.
Giants (Line) @ Cardinals (APR, SRS)
I've got to blame this one on the Cardinals' defense. They had a 10-point lead with 5:16 to play. One more defensive stop puts the win away. Instead, the Giants were able to drive the field twice for touchdowns, and the Cardinals' offense wasn't able to respond.
Lions (SRS) @ Cowboys (APR, Line)
In spite of the fact that I am a Packer fan, I want to give Tony Romo the benefit of the doubt. This season is making it very hard to do that. Since 1940, there have been 5 games where the winning team gave away two pick-6es (Ironically, Tony Romo's Cowboys were the last to do it). As for the Lions, a beat-down of a very bad team and two miracle come-backs don't seem that impressive for them, either.
Falcons (SRS, Line) @ Seahawks (APR)
The Falcons had a 20-point second-half lead in this game, and very nearly let it slip away, only securing the win when Seattles' last-minute field goal attemt fell short. If the Falcons' don't start playing at a much higher level, real soon, they're going to have trouble even getting to 8 wins this year.

Patriots (Line) @ Raiders (APR, SRS)
To beat the Patriots, you've got to put touchdowns on the board. The Raiders moved the ball a lot, but too many of their drives ended with field goals, punts, or interceptions. As a result, the Raiders fell behind early, and never scored without allowing the Patriots at least one intervening touchdown.
Dolphins (SRS) @ Chargers (APR, Line)
I'm not really sure why SRS liked the Dolphins here. The Chargers haven't been very impressive, but the Dolphins have been awful—they're now 0-4, and the Browns are the only team that hasn't beaten them by at least 10 points.
Vikings (SRS, Line) @ Chiefs (APR)
And speaking of awful, it's remarkable how fast the Vikings' season has spun out of control. At least in their first three games, they looked good for a half. This week, they couldn't manage even one good quarter against one of the weakest teams in the league. At this point, the Vikings have to wonder if there's anybody left on their schedule they can beat.

Totals

APR (and SRS) gain a little ground on the Line this week!

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 11-527-20-157.3%
SRS 11-530-17-163.5%
Line10-634-14-070.8%

Monday, October 3, 2011

NFL Week 4 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Packers1.2285
(LW × 1.0065)
4-0Won by 26
vs Broncos
2 (↑4)Patriots1.1495
(LW × 1.0472)
3-1Won by 12
@ Raiders
3 (↑4)Saints1.1298
(LW × 1.0319)
3-1Won by 13
@ Jaguars
4 (↓1)Bills1.0997
(LW × 0.9187)
3-1Lost by 3
@ Bengals
5 (↑7)Lions1.0642
(LW × 1.0636)
4-0Won by 4
@ Cowboys
6 (↑10)Ravens1.0451
(LW × 1.1278)
3-1Won by 17
vs Jets
7 (↑4)Titans1.0384
(LW × 1.0300)
3-1Won by 18
@ Browns
8 (↓6)Raiders1.0367
(LW × 0.8571)
2-2Lost by 12
vs Patriots
9 (↓4)Cowboys0.9971
(LW × 0.8820)
2-2Lost by 4
vs Lions
10 (↑3)Bengals0.9734
(LW × 1.0359)
2-2Won by 3
vs Bills
11 (↓2)49ers0.9725
(LW × 0.9377)
3-1Won by 1
@ Eagles
12 (↓4)Redskins0.9725
(LW × 0.9350)
3-1Won by 7
@ Rams
13 (↑1)Texans0.9613
(LW × 1.0269)
3-1Won by 7
vs Steelers
14 (↓4)Broncos0.9571
(LW × 0.9444)
1-3Lost by 26
@ Packers
15 (↓11)Jets0.9570
(LW × 0.8369)
2-2Lost by 17
@ Ravens
16 (↑2)Bears0.9370
(LW × 1.0288)
2-2Won by 5
vs Panthers
17 (↑6)Giants0.8917
(LW × 1.0919)
3-1Won by 4
@ Cardinals
18 (↑2)Chargers0.8842
(LW × 1.0346)
3-1Won by 10
vs Dolphins
19 (-)Panthers0.8665
(LW × 0.9785)
1-3Lost by 5
@ Bears
20 (↓3)Jaguars0.8634
(LW × 0.9383)
1-3Lost by 13
vs Saints
21 (↑1)Buccaneers0.8541
(LW × 1.0402)
3-1Won by 7
vs Colts
22 (↓7)Cardinals0.8472
(LW × 0.9123)
1-3Lost by 4
vs Giants
23 (↓2)Steelers0.8399
(LW × 1.0159)
2-2Lost by 7
@ Texans
24 (↑4)Falcons0.8117
(LW × 1.0776)
2-2Won by 2
@ Seahawks
25 (↑4)Eagles0.8083
(LW × 1.1076)
1-3Lost by 1
vs 49ers
26 (↓1)Chiefs0.7929
(LW × 1.0312)
1-3Won by 5
vs Vikings
27 (-)Vikings0.7874
(LW × 1.0381)
0-4Lost by 5
@ Chiefs
28 (↓4)Browns0.7804
(LW × 0.9758)
2-2Lost by 18
vs Titans
29 (↑1)Dolphins0.7500
(LW × 1.0362)
0-4Lost by 10
@ Chargers
30 (↓4)Seahawks0.7334
(LW × 0.9587)
1-3Lost by 2
vs Falcons
31 (-)Colts0.6871
(LW × 1.0552)
0-4Lost by 7
@ Buccaneers
32 (-)Rams0.6785
(LW × 1.1372)
0-4Lost by 7
vs Redskins

Comments:

  • I'm not sure how much I believe these rankings just yet. The Bills seem like the biggest overrate: one trouncing of a very bad team and two miracle come-backs does not make a top-5 team. Given how spectacularly the Cowboys collapsed this week, they don't seem like a top-10 team either.

  • The Packers' secondary looked suspect again this week. In spite of the fact that they had just two guys to cover (Brandon Lloyd and Eric Decker), Kyle Orton managed to throw for 273 yards and 3 touchdowns (mostly in the first half). The good news for the Packers is, as long as they can continue to put up offense like they did on Sunday, it's not going to matter much if their defense is a little slow to get started.

  • Aaron Rodgers has 1,325 yards of passing already this season. Which is good for 4th place, behind Tom Brady (1,553), Drew Brees (1,410), and Cam Newton (1,386).

  • The Texans are off to a good start at 3-1. But Arian Foster ran 30 times in Sunday's win. That kind of pounding is not sustainable for very long at all.

  • At the beginning of the season, with the other AFC South teams in apparent disarray, it looked like the division was the Texans to lose. But with the Titans at 3-1, Matt Hasselbeck having a late-career resurgence, and Chris Johnson getting back on track, it's starting to look like there could be some competition for the AFC South this year.

  • Could the 49ers run away with the NFC West this year? They've already got a 2-game lead in the division, and 2 non-division road wins for the first time since 2006. I don't want to underestimate the ability of any of these teams to collapse down the stretch, but after 4 games, the 49ers are on their best start in nearly a decade.