| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers @ Falcons | Packers ρ=1.5135 | Packers* δ=25.8 | Packers -6 |
| Eagles @ Bills | Bills ρ=1.3606 | Bills δ=15.0 | Eagles -2½ |
| Saints @ Panthers | Saints ρ=1.3038 | Saints* δ=13.0 | Saints -6½ |
| Titans @ Steelers | Titans* ρ=1.2363 | Titans* δ=12.3 | Steelers -3 |
| Seahawks @ Giants | Giants ρ=1.2158 | Giants δ=11.3 | Giants -9½ |
| Jets @ Patriots | Patriots ρ=1.2012 | Patriots δ=3.7 | Patriots -9½ |
| Chiefs @ Colts | Chiefs ρ=1.1539 | Colts δ=5.3 | Colts -1½ |
| Buccaneers @ 49ers | 49ers* ρ=1.1387 | 49ers δ=5.9 | 49ers -2½ |
| Bears @ Lions | Lions ρ=1.1358 | Lions δ=3.4 | Lions -6 |
| Bengals @ Jaguars | Bengals* ρ=1.1274 | Bengals* δ=7.2 | Jaguars -1½ |
| Chargers @ Broncos | Broncos ρ=1.0825 | Broncos δ=6.1 | Chargers -4 |
| Raiders @ Texans | Raiders ρ=1.0784 | Texans δ=0.4 | Texans -6 |
| Cardinals @ Vikings | Cardinals* ρ=1.0760 | Cardinals* δ=5.8 | Vikings -1½ |
Bye: Ravens, Browns, Cowboys, Dolphins, Rams, Redskins
Comments:
If the Packers win this week, they will be 5-0 for the first time since 1965.
The Packers -6?! The Packers have scored more points (148) than any other team in the league. And only 5 teams have have given up more points (105) than the Falcons. Maybe the Roddy White and Julio Jones can light up the Packers' secondary, but unless the Packers' offense does a complete face-plant, the Falcons will have to score early and often to have any chance to keep up.
Chiefs @ Colts and Cardinals @ Vikings are a couple early matchups that could weigh heavily in determining who gets the #1 pick in the draft next April.
That's a lot of really narrow lines. Out of all of them, I'm most surprised the Line isn't taking the Bills at home against the Eagles and their terrible defense.
On the other hand, it's interesting that not even the Line is taking the Buccaneers over the 49ers. I'm still not sold that the 49ers have made a lasting change, but like I said in APR vs. ESPN—the Buccaneers are showing signs of being a pretty weak team.
