Friday, October 7, 2011

NFL Q1 Strength of Schedule

This table is APR's first quarter strength of schedule results. Each team's "unplayed" strength of schedule was computed by combining the power index value of every team remaining on the schedule (using the week 4 power index values of each team). Similarly, the "played" strength of schedule was computed using the power index of teams already played.

A higher value indicates tougher opponents, and therefore a harder schedule. Teams are ranked from hardest schedule (#1) to easiest (#32).

RankTeamSOS
unplayed
RankSOS
played
1Vikings0.9927170.8934
2Chargers0.9920220.8565
3Buccaneers0.9761310.8268
4Lions0.9715240.8539
5Giants0.9709320.8199
6Dolphins0.9707130.9345
7Colts0.9541230.8565
8Falcons0.9437300.8299
9Chiefs0.9402110.9501
10Eagles0.9344290.8313
11Jets0.930870.9828
12Bills0.919280.9793
13Broncos0.919011.0652
14Panthers0.9147100.9579
15Rams0.9100150.9251
16Bears0.905530.9940
17Steelers0.8982270.8435
18Texans0.8975280.8362
19Browns0.8951250.8496
20Redskins0.8928260.8455
21Raiders0.892421.0373
22Patriots0.8851140.9325
23Titans0.8847160.9061
24Packers0.874790.9680
25Seahawks0.8735200.8657
26Jaguars0.868940.9931
27Cowboys0.863750.9907
28Bengals0.8538120.9454
29Ravens0.8527190.8675
30Cardinals0.8464210.8616
3149ers0.8441180.8709
32Saints0.843960.9887

Comments:

  • The teams with the top 5 hardest remaining schedules are all seeing significant increases in the power of their opponents. That's going to be particularly bad news for the Vikings, who won't find it easy to put their ugly 0-4 start behind them.

  • The Lions are one of those teams with a bunch of tough opponents left on their schedule. They're going to have trouble if they keep using that "fall behind early, catch up late" strategy to win games.

  • The Packers have a couple of top-10 teams (Lions and Raiders) left on their schedule. But everyone else is ranked #16 or lower, including four in the bottom 10 (Falcons, Chiefs, Vikings, and Rams).

  • The Packers may be glad to have the head-to-head tie break over the Saints, though. The Saints have the easiest schedule remaining of any team, with all but two of their opponents in the bottom half of the rankings, including the Vikings (#27), Colts (#31), and Rams (#32).

  • Could the Bengals sneak into the playoffs this year? I don't think they can get by the Ravens to win the AFC North, but a 2-2 start, and an easy remaining schedule might be enough for one of the wildcard spots.

  • Good news for the Cowboys, too. In spite of all the drama, they're still just a game out of first place in the NFC East, with the easiest remaining schedule of any team in that division.

  • I'm still not sold on the 49ers. But given their easy remaining schedule, and the fact that they've swept the Cardinals 3 of the last 4 seasons, they at least have the inside track to win the NFC West right now.