Wednesday, December 29, 2010

NFL: Week 17 Game Picks

All line values are from yahoo.com, except Cowboys @ Eagles, which is from footballlocks.com.

GameAPRSRSLine
Panthers @
Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.4274
Falcons
δ=19.1
Falcons
-14½
Dolphins @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.3117
Patriots
δ=13.2
Patriots
-3
Bengals @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.2422
Ravens
δ=8.0
Ravens
-9½
Chargers @
Broncos
Chargers
ρ=1.2350
Chargers*
δ=14.8
Chargers
-3
Titans @
Colts
Colts
ρ=1.1359
Colts
δ=1.6
Colts
-9½
Cardinals @
49ers
49ers
ρ=1.1357
49ers
δ=3.8
49ers
-6½
Steelers @
Browns
Steelers
ρ=1.1203
Steelers*
δ=8.9
Steelers
-6
Giants @
Redskins
Giants
ρ=1.1116
Giants*
δ=6.3
Giants
-4
Cowboys @
Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.1029
Eagles
δ=7.1
Eagles
-7
Buccaneers @
Saints
Saints*
ρ=1.1012
Saints
δ=4.5
Saints
-9
Jaguars @
Texans
Jaguars
ρ=1.1009
Texans
δ=0.6
Jaguars
-1½
Rams @
Seahawks
Rams
ρ=1.1008
Rams*
δ=4.3
Rams
-2½
Bills @
Jets
Jets*
ρ=1.0705
Jets
δ=8.3
Jets
-1
Bears @
Packers
Packers*
ρ=1.0559
Packers
δ=6.7
Packers
-10
Vikings @
Lions
Lions*
ρ=1.0545
Lions
δ=2.9
Lions
-3
Raiders @
Chiefs
Chiefs
ρ=1.0220
Chiefs
δ=1.9
Chiefs
-4

Comments:

  • As usual, APR and SRS don't take into account teams that have clinched their playoff berth, and have nothing to play for this week.

  • In particular, Michael Vick probably won't play, and the Cowboys may have to start rookie Stephen McGee for their quarterback, so what's going to happen in that game is anybody's guess.

  • The Patriots are another team with little to play for, so the Dolphins actually have an excellent chance to finish with a 7-1 road record, which would bookend nicely with their 1-7 home record.

  • After looking doubtful for most of the season, my speculation from last July that the Lions could get to 6 wins is looking very good. Of course, it looks better if you don't read the part where I said the Bears and Patriots could struggle.

  • I wish NBC would choose their week 17 game using more critera than "what's most likely to be a meaningful game?" Yeah, the NFC West will come down to Rams @ Seahawks. But it's unlikely to be a very good game, and has the added disadvantage that it may showcase the first time a division is won by a team with a losing record.

    I think Bears @ Packers, Steelers @ Browns, or even Titans @ Colts would be at least as good, and probably better choices for the SNF game.

NFL: Week 16 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 16 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Rams (+10)
For reasons unexplained, ESPN moved the Rams up 4 spots on their unimpressive win over a bad 49ers team. The Rams are (probably) the best team in the NFC West, but that is a low, low bar to clear.
On the bubble:
Chiefs (+8), Titans (+7). Four of the Chiefs ten wins have come against the NFC West.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Bills (-12), Lions (-11)
Yes, APR has the Lions (#13) and Bills (#16) ranked too high. But ESPN has them both in the bottom 10, in spite of many clearly worse teams (especially, I think, in the case of the Lions).
Browns (-10)
Not so much for the Browns. If they could keep Colt McCoy healthy enough to play every week, and get some consistent output from their running game, they would probably win more games.
On the bubble:
Packers (-7)

NFL: Week 16 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Patriots1.1430
(LW × 1.0381)
13-2Won by 31
@ Bills
2 (↑2)Packers1.0506
(LW × 1.0444)
9-6Won by 28
vs Giants
3 (↑2)Ravens1.0243
(LW × 1.0198)
11-4Won by 10
@ Browns
4 (↓1)Falcons1.0201
(LW × 1.0029)
12-3Lost by 3
vs Saints
5 (↑4)Saints1.0032
(LW × 1.0465)
11-4Won by 3
@ Falcons
6 (-)Steelers0.9960
(LW × 1.0075)
11-4Won by 24
vs Panthers
7 (-)Bears0.9950
(LW × 1.0289)
11-4Won by 4
vs Jets
8 (↓6)Eagles0.9675
(LW × 0.9385)
10-5Lost by 10
vs Vikings
9 (↑2)Jets0.9502
(LW × 1.0068)
10-5Lost by 4
@ Bears
10 (↓2)Giants0.9226
(LW × 0.9583)
9-6Lost by 28
@ Packers
11 (↑7)Buccaneers0.9111
(LW × 1.0302)
9-6Won by 23
vs Seahawks
12 (↑1)Colts0.9066
(LW × 0.9818)
9-6Won by 5
@ Raiders
13 (↑7)Lions0.9052
(LW × 1.0438)
5-10Won by 7
@ Dolphins
14 (↓4)Chargers0.9009
(LW × 0.9533)
8-7Lost by 14
@ Bengals
15 (↓1)Browns0.8890
(LW × 0.9889)
5-10Lost by 10
vs Ravens
16 (↑1)Bills0.8876
(LW × 1.0035)
4-11Lost by 31
vs Patriots
17 (↓5)Jaguars0.8860
(LW × 0.9520)
8-7Lost by 3
vs Redskins
18 (↓3)Cowboys0.8772
(LW × 0.9766)
5-10Lost by 1
@ Cardinals
19 (↑3)Chiefs0.8732
(LW × 1.0118)
10-5Won by 20
vs Titans
20 (↓4)Dolphins0.8714
(LW × 0.9706)
7-8Lost by 7
vs Lions
21 (↑4)Vikings0.8584
(LW × 1.0557)
6-9Won by 10
@ Eagles
22 (↓3)Raiders0.8544
(LW × 0.9768)
7-8Lost by 5
vs Colts
23 (↑1)Redskins0.8300
(LW × 1.0096)
6-9Won by 3
@ Jaguars
24 (↑3)Bengals0.8245
(LW × 1.0454)
4-11Won by 14
vs Chargers
25 (↓2)Texans0.8048
(LW × 0.9506)
5-10Lost by 1
@ Broncos
26 (↑2)Rams0.8011
(LW × 1.0260)
7-8Won by 8
vs 49ers
27 (↓6)Titans0.7981
(LW × 0.9235)
6-9Lost by 20
@ Chiefs
28 (↓2)49ers0.7967
(LW × 0.9861)
5-10Lost by 8
@ Rams
29 (↑1)Broncos0.7295
(LW × 1.0117)
4-11Won by 1
vs Texans
30 (↓1)Seahawks0.7278
(LW × 0.9919)
6-9Lost by 23
@ Buccaneers
31 (-)Panthers0.7147
(LW × 1.0175)
2-13Lost by 24
@ Steelers
32 (-)Cardinals0.7015
(LW × 1.0358)
5-10Won by 1
vs Cowboys

Comments:

  • The Packers are benefitting from their big win over the Giants, as well as their loss to the Lions not looking quite so bad. They're still a long way back of the Patriots, though.

  • And speaking of the Lions, their recent success has pushed them all the way up to #13. Probably overrated, but they did beat the Packers (9-6), Buccaneers (9-6) and Dolphins (7-8), after a lot of close losses.

  • For the second year in a row, a late-season loss by the Eagles costs them a first-round bye. At least this year, they already have the division locked up. But if they can't play any better than that, their playoff run will be just as short as it was last year.

  • Every team in the NFC West is still ranked in the bottom 10 teams. And, unless the Rams win by at least 29 points next week, every NFC West team will finish with a negative point differential.

  • The Cardinals get a pretty good bump from beating the Cowboys, but it's not enough to get ahead of the Panthers, who get a bump just from playing the highly-ranked Steelers. All 4 bottom teams are ranked pretty close together, with a pretty steep drop-off between the 49ers and Broncos.

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

NFL: Week 16 Pick Results

In order to avoid having the power rankings, pick results, APR vs ESPN, and next weeks picks all posted in the space of about 12 hours, I'm going to put the pick results up now. The results are, of course, pending the result of the Tuesday night game, and I will update this post when that game is final. Update: it's done.

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (6-7)

Right

Patriots @ Bills
Ravens @ Browns
Colts @ Raiders
Panthers @ Steelers
Seahaks @ Buccaneers
Giants @ Packers

Wrong

Cowboys @ Cardinals
As bad as the Cardinals have been this season, they have managed to take advantage when their opponents have made mistakes. The Cowboys spotted the Cardinals 21 points on a couple pick-6es and a blown coverage for a touchdown, which was more than the Cowboys could make up for.
Texans @ Broncos
For the first half, the Broncos offensive output was an interception and four punts. But apparently someone forgot to tell the Texans this was one of those "60 minute" games. In the second half, the Broncos had four drives of 71+ yards, resulting in 3 touchdowns and a field goal. An ugly result for a defense that has struggled all year long.
Chargers @ Bengals
The Chargers' offense doesn't work nearly as well when Antonio Gates is out. Combine a struggling offense with a bad special teams performance (Mike Scifres averaged less than 32 yards a punt), and the Chargers just didn't have enough to beat even the lowly Bengals.
Redskins @ Jaguars
Maurice Jones-Drew was out with a knee injury, which is not good news for the Jaguars offense, which barely managed 17 points. Even that might have been enough, except David Garrard threw two costly interceptions—the first gave the Redskins a short field for a touchdown, the second gave the Redskins the game-clinching field goal in overtime.
Lions @ Dolphins
The Dolphins had a 10 point lead with 4:49 left in the game. And then... well, then the Dolphins finished exactly like you would expect a team with a 1-6 (now 1-7) home record: a defensive breakdown, two interceptions and 2:24 later, the Lions had a 7-point lead, and the Dolphins were unable to recover.
Saints @ Falcons
The Falcons offense just never got going in this game. Matt Ryan passed for just 148 yards, and Michael Turner rushed for 48 yards, mostly on one carry. Throw in a couple lost fumbles, and the Saints had enough to come away with a win.
Vikings @ Eagles
The Eagles just face-planted this game. Michael Vick fumbled twice, threw an interception, and got sacked 6 times. The defense gave up three drives of 60+ yards, all ending in a score. Shocking, considering this is a playoff team facing an injured Adrian Peterson, and a rookie quarterback getting his first start.

Split (APR: 1-2 SRS: 1-2 Line: 3-0)

49ers (APR) @ Rams (SRS, Line)
The 49ers offense consisted of two big plays: a 78 yard punt return for a touchdown, and a 60 yard touchdown pass. Their defense wasn't good enough to make that hold.
Jets (SRS) @ Bears (APR, Line)
I've got nothing here. These teams are both supposed to have good defenses, right? Although, it's not the first time for either team to give up 30+ points this season...
Titans (APR, SRS) @ Chiefs (Line)
Part of this was a defensive breakdown for the Titans—they were down 24-0 halfway through the 2nd quarter, which made it a lot harder to play their preferred style of ball-control offense. The other part was, even when the game was close, the Titans offense struggled to move the ball.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 7-9124-100-055.4%
APR VH 7-9119-105-053.1%
SRS 7-9130- 94-058.0%
SRS VH 9-7119-104-153.3%
Line 9-7145- 78-064.7%

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

NFL: Week 16 Game Picks

All Line values are from yahoo.com, except for Giants @ Packers, which is from footballlocks.com.

GameAPRSRSLine
Panthers @
Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.4076
Steelers
δ=21.6
Steelers
-14½
Cowboys @
Cardinals
Cowboys
ρ=1.3263
Cowboys*
δ=10.6
Cowboys
-7
Vikings @
Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.2679
Eagles
δ=9.0
Eagles
-14
Patriots @
Bills
Patriots
ρ=1.2448
Patriots*
δ=16.0
Patriots
-8
Seahawks @
Buccaneers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.2053
Buccaneers
δ=6.3
Buccaneers
-6
Chargers @
Bengals
Chargers
ρ=1.1982
Chargers*
δ=10.5
Chargers
-7½
Texans @
Broncos
Texans
ρ=1.1742
Texans*
δ=8.4
Texans
-2½
Redskins @
Jaguars
Jaguars
ρ=1.1322
Jaguars
δ=1.6
Jaguars
-7
Ravens @
Browns
Ravens
ρ=1.1172
Ravens*
δ=6.2
Ravens
-3½
Saints @
Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.0610
Falcons
δ=3.6
Falcons
-2½
Colts @
Raiders
Colts
ρ=1.0556
Colts*
δ=3.9
Colts
-3
Giants @
Packers
Packers*
ρ=1.0449
Packers
δ=4.9
Packers
-3
Lions @
Dolphins
Dolphins*
ρ=1.0352
Dolphins
δ=0.4
Dolphins
-3½
49ers @
Rams
49ers
ρ=1.0346
Rams
δ=0.4
Rams
-2
Jets @
Bears
Bears*
ρ=1.0248
Jets*
δ=1.2
Bears
-1
Titans @
Chiefs
Titans*
ρ=1.0014
Titans*
δ=3.7
Chiefs
-5

Comments:

  • Only one of yahoo's sports books has a line on the Vikings @ Eagles game. I assume because of the Vikings QB situation.

  • 3 of the 4 prime-time games this week are the biggest mismatches of the week according to APR.

  • Giants @ Packers is essentially a playoff game for the Packers—they need to win out to clinch a wildcard spot.

  • The Colts are in a similar position—they have the tie-breaker against the Jaguars right now, but even one loss will likely give the AFC South to the Jaguars.

  • Every team in the NFL, except for the Dolphins, has at least two home wins. Every team with at least 7 wins has at least 4 home wins, except the Dolphins and Buccaneers.

  • Somehow, the Dolphins are favored to beat the resurgent Lions anyway. The Lions are better than their record, and they couldn't have asked for a better set-up to extend their winning streak to 3 games.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

NFL: Week 15 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 15 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Chiefs (+11)
I don't have much to add to what I said last week about the Chiefs. It will take more than a win over the not-very-impressive Rams to change my opinion here.
On the bubble:
Rams (+8). Coming off another double-digit loss, this time at home, I don't know how ESPN can rank the Rams out of the bottom 10.
In range:
Jets, Seahawks (+6).

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Bills (-10)
The Bills are another team that seem to be turning the corner. They've lost 6 games by one score or less, they took the playoff-contending Ravens and Steelers to overtime, and they're 3-2 in their last 5 games. Yeah, they're only 4-10, but, like the Lions, they're no longer an easy team to beat.
On the bubble:
Packers, Lions, Browns (-8). Teams with a lot of close losses. The Packers 6 losses are all by 4 points or less. As noted before, I think APR is too lenient on close losses, particularly when they start to mount up.

NFL: Week 15 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (7-2)

Right

Falcons @ Seahawks
Bears @ Vikings
49ers @ Chargers
Broncos @ Raiders
Redskins @ Cowboys
Saints @ Ravens
Packers @ Patriots

Wrong

Jets @ Steelers
The Jets had their best game offensively since Thanksgiving, but mostly because that isn't a very high bar to clear. It didn't seem like it was any one thing that lost this game for the Steelers—just a steady accumulation of mistakes (including a safety and special teams touchdown) that finally added up to more than the Steelers could overcome.
Bills @ Dolphins
Part of this was lack of production from the Dolphins' running game (65 yards on 19 carries). But part of it was flat out bad play calling. The Dolphins missed four field goals, none shorter than 48 yards. They never went for it on 4th down.

Split (APR: 2-5 SRS: 5-2 Line: 4-3)

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)
You know what helps when you have to start a rookie quarter back? A solid running game. The Panthers' Jonathan Stewart rushed for 137 yards, which made Jimmy Clausen's job a lot easier. The Cardinals, on the other hand, generated a total of 43 yards rushing on 17 carries, which made John Skelton's job much, much harder.
Browns (APR, SRS) @ Bengals (Line)
The Carson Palmer (14/23, 209 yards passing), and Cedric Benson (150 yards rushing) had perhaps their best game of the season, though somehow producing only 19 points. For the Browns, Colt McCoy (19/25, 243 yards, 2 TD) was a big improvement over Jake Delhomme, but Peyton Hillis only got 59 yards rushing, and the Browns couldn't quite overcome the Bengals lead.
Jaguars (APR) @ Colts (SRS, Line)
Just 3 plays into the second half, the Jaguars were down 4 points, and facing 4th+1 at their own 38 yard line. The Jaguars have to be agressive to beat Manning and the Colts in their own stadium, so they decide to go for it. But instead of a QB sneak, it's some kind of a botched hand-off, Colts ball. And 2 plays later, the Jaguars are down 11 points.
The Jaguars did manage to close within 3 late in the game, but that failed conversion (along with the subsequent defensive breakdown) is really why the Jaguars lost.
Texans (APR) @ Titans (SRS, Line)
Apparently the answer is "Yes, Kenny Britt really does mean that much to the Titans' offense". Kerry Collins passed for 237 yards, mostly on passes caught by Kenny Britt. And when the passign game works, that opens up the running game for Chris Johnson (130 yards), and generally makes it a lot easier for the Titans to score.
Lions (SRS) @ Buccaneers (APR, Line)
Have the Lions finally turned the corner? Last week, they won their first division game since October 2007. Now, they have their first road win and first back-to-back wins since that same date.
Chiefs (APR, SRS) @ Rams (Line)
The Rams' offense was just terrible in this game. Between their opening drive and their late touchdown, the Rams longest drive was just 21 yards. They did get a touchdown late to close within 7, but their defense gave that up almost immediately on two runs by Jamaal Charles.
Eagles (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)
There's no shortage of mistakes in this game, and not just on special teams. The Giants offense could have run a lot more time off the clock on their penultimate drive. The Giants defense let the Eagles drive 88 yards in 8 plays (including a 3rd+10 conversion) for the tying score. And on the Giants final drive, Eli Manning threw incomplete twice before getting sacked on 3rd down, so they couldn't just let the clock expire and go to overtime—they were forced to punt, with the accompanying disastrous result.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 9-7117-91-056.2%
APR VH 8-8112-96-053.8%
SRS 12-4123-85-059.1%
SRS VH 9-7110-97-153.1%
Line 11-5136-72-065.4%

Monday, December 20, 2010

NFL: Week 15 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Patriots1.1010
(LW × 1.0123)
12-2Won by 4
vs Packers
2 (↑3)Eagles1.0309
(LW × 1.0347)
10-4Won by 7
@ Giants
3 (↓1)Falcons1.0172
(LW × 1.0012)
12-2Won by 16
@ Seahawks
4 (↑2)Packers1.0060
(LW × 1.0145)
8-6Lost by 4
@ Patriots
5 (↓2)Ravens1.0043
(LW × 0.9957)
10-4Won by 6
vs Saints
6 (↓2)Steelers0.9886
(LW × 0.9809)
10-4Lost by 5
vs Jets
7 (↑3)Bears0.9671
(LW × 1.0391)
10-4Won by 26
@ Vikings
8 (↓1)Giants0.9627
(LW × 0.9810)
9-5Lost by 7
vs Eagles
9 (↓1)Saints0.9587
(LW × 0.9997)
10-4Lost by 6
@ Ravens
10 (↑2)Chargers0.9451
(LW × 1.0223)
8-6Won by 27
vs 49ers
11 (-)Jets0.9437
(LW × 1.0171)
10-4Won by 5
@ Steelers
12 (↓3)Jaguars0.9308
(LW × 0.9988)
8-6Lost by 10
@ Colts
13 (↑3)Colts0.9234
(LW × 1.0253)
8-6Won by 10
vs Jaguars
14 (↓1)Browns0.8990
(LW × 0.9885)
5-9Lost by 2
@ Bengals
15 (↑2)Cowboys0.8982
(LW × 1.0161)
5-9Won by 3
vs Redskins
16 (↓2)Dolphins0.8978
(LW × 0.9897)
7-7Lost by 3
vs Bills
17 (↑3)Bills0.8845
(LW × 1.0355)
4-10Won by 3
@ Dolphins
18 (↓3)Buccaneers0.8844
(LW × 0.9777)
8-6Lost by 3
vs Lions
19 (↓1)Raiders0.8747
(LW × 1.0060)
7-7Won by 16
vs Broncos
20 (↑3)Lions0.8672
(LW × 1.0302)
4-10Won by 3
@ Buccaneers
21 (↑1)Titans0.8642
(LW × 1.0143)
6-8Won by 14
vs Texans
22 (↓1)Chiefs0.8631
(LW × 1.0129)
9-5Won by 14
@ Rams
23 (↓4)Texans0.8467
(LW × 0.9853)
5-9Lost by 14
@ Titans
24 (↑3)Redskins0.8221
(LW × 1.0028)
5-9Lost by 3
@ Cowboys
25 (↓1)Vikings0.8131
(LW × 0.9702)
5-9Lost by 26
vs Bears
26 (↓1)49ers0.8079
(LW × 0.9671)
5-9Lost by 27
@ Chargers
27 (↑1)Bengals0.7888
(LW × 1.0180)
3-11Won by 2
vs Browns
28 (↓2)Rams0.7809
(LW × 0.9482)
6-8Lost by 14
vs Chiefs
29 (-)Seahawks0.7337
(LW × 0.9701)
6-8Lost by 16
vs Falcons
30 (-)Broncos0.7211
(LW × 0.9757)
3-11Lost by 16
@ Raiders
31 (↑1)Panthers0.7023
(LW × 0.9989)
2-12Won by 7
vs Cardinals
32 (↓1)Cardinals0.6772
(LW × 0.9512)
4-10Lost by 7
@ Panthers

Comments:

  • With Monday night's win, the Bears have clinched the NFC North division title. One big difference this year: Cutler's only thrown 12 interceptions so far this season. The bad news is, he's been sacked a league-leading 43 times so far.

  • The Packers are now 2-6 this season in games decided by 4 points or less. That's really not a good thing.

  • Two weeks ago, the 5-7 Browns had matched last year's win total, and had an excellent chance to surpass it. Now, after losses to the Bills and Bengals, their best hope for a 6th win is that the Steelers have their playoff fate locked up in week 17.

  • This week's losses by the Seahawks and Rams means that the NFC West division winner will, at best, have 8 wins. The Rams probably have the better chance to make it to a .500 season.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

NFL: Week 15 Game Picks

All line values are from yahoo.com, except Chiefs @ Rams, Packers @ Patriots, and Bears @ Vikings, which are from footballlocks.com.

GameAPRSRSLine
Falcons @
Seahawks
Falcons
ρ=1.3431
Falcons*
δ=15.0
Falcons
-7
Broncos @
Raiders
Raiders
ρ=1.1765
Raiders
δ=8.4
Raiders
-6½
Browns @
Bengals
Browns
ρ=1.1738
Browns*
δ=3.7
Bengals
-1½
Bears @
Vikings
Bears
ρ=1.1105
Bears*
δ=3.4
Bears
-2½
49ers @
Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.1067
Chargers
δ=11.8
Chargers
-9
Packers @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.0969
Patriots
δ=3.5
Patriots
-11
Jets @
Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.0862
Steelers
δ=4.4
Steelers
-6½
Redskins @
Cowboys
Cowboys*
ρ=1.0783
Cowboys
δ=2.4
Cowboys
-6
Lions @
Buccaneers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.0745
Lions*
δ=3.6
Buccaneers
-6
Bills @
Dolphins
Dolphins*
ρ=1.0620
Dolphins
δ=5.2
Dolphins
-5½
Saints @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.0518
Ravens
δ=2.8
Ravens
-1½
Jaguars @
Colts
Jaguars
ρ=1.0348
Colts
δ=5.1
Colts
-5
Chiefs @
Rams
Chiefs*
ρ=1.0346
Chiefs*
δ=5.0
Rams
-1½
Eagles @
Giants
Eagles
ρ=1.0152
Eagles*
δ=1.3
Giants
-2½
Cardinals @
Panthers
Cardinals
ρ=1.0126
Cardinals*
δ=2.8
Panthers
-2½
Texans @
Titans
Texans
ρ=1.0085
Titans
δ=3.8
Titans
-1½

Comments:

  • The Packers, Vikings, and Chiefs quarterback situations are all affecting the lines of their respective games. I think Chiefs @ Rams is the only one that might swing to the other team, though (unless Tom Brady gets swept out into the ocean or something).

  • I'm guessing Bengals -1½ is bookie speak for "we have no idea what's going to happen here, so we'll go (marginally) with the home team". (Also Saints @ Ravens and Chiefs @ Rams.)

  • The Dolphins have a chance to get their second home win of the season this week. But after losing at home two weeks ago to the Browns, it's not what you'd call a sure thing.

  • How awful are the Cardinals, that the Line doesn't even think they can beat the Panthers on the road? Of course, given that their choices for starting quarterback are Derek Anderson, John Skelton, or some guy who couldn't win a starting job in the UFL, I'm not sure how I would make a case that they're wrong.

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

NFL: Week 14 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 12 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

On the bubble:
Rams (+8). The kindest thing I can say about the Rams right now is their 18-point road loss to the Saints doesn't look nearly as bad as the Seahawks 19-point road loss to the 49ers.
In range:
Chiefs (+7). Even allowing for a backup quarterback, that 31-0 pasting at the Chargers was an ugly, ugly loss. Factoring in losses to the Texans (5-8), Raiders (6-7) and Broncos (3-10), it gets pretty hard to make the case the Chiefs belong anywhere in the top half of the power rankings.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble:
Browns, Bills (-8). Consistently inconsistent.
In range:
Lions (-6). The Lions finally won a close game, against a playoff contender, no less. Still looking for their first road win in a long while, though.

NFL: Week 14 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (10-3)

Right

Falcons @ Panthers
Eagles @ Cowboys
Patriots @ Bears
Buccaneers @ Redskins
Ravens @ Texans
Giants @ Vikings
Bengals @ Steelers
Rams @ Saints
Seahawks @ 49ers
Chiefs @ Chargers

Wrong

Packers @ Lions
I think the Packers have been exposed—if you can take away their deep passing game, and run the ball to keep their offense off the field—they become very beatable. It can be a tough thing to do, though. This is the first time since 1979 the Packers have held their opponent to just 7 points and still lost.
Broncos @ Cardinals
This was just an offensive melt-down for the Broncos. They turned the ball over 6 times (3 interceptions and 3 lost fumbles). They also punted 5 times, missed a field goal, and gave the ball over on downs. After their opening drive of the game, they didn't have another drive longer than 28 yards until garbage time.
Dolphins @ Jets
It seems like very little is working for the Jets offense right now. Mark Sanchez is completing less than half his passes (some of them because his receivers are dropping them), and the running game is drying up, producing just 87 yards in Sunday's game. The Jets may not get even one more win this season with play like that.

Split (APR: 1-1 SRS: 1-1 Line: 2-0)

Browns (APR, SRS) @ Bills (Line)
I said it before, and I'll say it again: Jake Delhomme (12/20, 86 yards, an interception and a lost fumble) is not the answer for the Browns (or anyone else) at quarterback.
Raiders (SRS) @ Jaguars (APR, Line)
The Jaguars have given up at least 26 points in 7 games this season, and somehow they are still 8-5. Part of the reason is their offense (159 yards passing, 242 yards rushing) has been better than their defense has been bad.
Colts (APR, Line) @ Titans (SRS)
What a difference from last two games for the Titans. Does Kenny Britt really mean that much to their offense? A fumble and a bad snap on a punt helped the Colts jump out to a 21-0 lead. If the Titans had executed a little better (or even if Jeff Fisher had managed the clock better at the end of the game), this could have easily come out differently.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 12- 4108-84-056.2%
APR VH12- 4104-88-054.2%
SRS 10- 6111-81-057.8%
SRS VH 8- 8101-90-152.9%
Line 13- 3125-67-065.1%

Monday, December 13, 2010

NFL: Week 14 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Patriots1.0877
(LW × 1.0260)
11-2Won by 29
@ Bears
2 (↑1)Falcons1.0159
(LW × 1.0034)
11-2Won by 21
@ Panthers
3 (↑1)Ravens1.0087
(LW × 1.0019)
9-4Won by 6
@ Texans
4 (↑1)Steelers1.0078
(LW × 1.0024)
10-3Won by 16
vs Bengals
5 (↑1)Eagles0.9963
(LW × 1.0055)
9-4Won by 3
@ Cowboys
6 (↓4)Packers0.9916
(LW × 0.9747)
8-5Lost by 4
@ Lions
7 (↑2)Giants0.9814
(LW × 1.0285)
9-4Won by 18
@ Vikings
8 (↑2)Saints0.9590
(LW × 1.0217)
10-3Won by 18
vs Rams
9 (↑3)Jaguars0.9319
(LW × 1.0208)
8-5Won by 7
vs Raiders
10 (↓2)Bears0.9307
(LW × 0.9732)
9-4Lost by 29
vs Patriots
11 (↓4)Jets0.9278
(LW × 0.9604)
9-4Lost by 4
vs Dolphins
12 (↑1)Chargers0.9245
(LW × 1.0205)
7-6Won by 31
vs Chiefs
13 (↓2)Browns0.9095
(LW × 0.9856)
5-8Lost by 7
@ Bills
14 (↑1)Dolphins0.9071
(LW × 1.0128)
7-6Won by 4
@ Jets
15 (↑2)Buccaneers0.9046
(LW × 1.0198)
8-5Won by 1
@ Redskins
16 (↓2)Colts0.9006
(LW × 1.0022)
7-6Won by 2
@ Titans
17 (↑2)Cowboys0.8839
(LW × 1.0089)
4-9Lost by 3
vs Eagles
18 (-)Raiders0.8695
(LW × 0.9908)
6-7Lost by 7
@ Jaguars
19 (↑3)Texans0.8593
(LW × 0.9994)
5-8Lost by 6
vs Ravens
20 (↑5)Bills0.8542
(LW × 1.0253)
3-10Won by 7
vs Browns
21 (↓5)Chiefs0.8521
(LW × 0.9541)
8-5Lost by 31
@ Chargers
22 (↓2)Titans0.8521
(LW × 0.9764)
5-8Lost by 2
vs Colts
23 (↑3)Lions0.8418
(LW × 1.0178)
3-10Won by 4
vs Packers
24 (↓3)Vikings0.8381
(LW × 0.9620)
5-8Lost by 18
vs Giants
25 (↑2)49ers0.8353
(LW × 1.0110)
5-8Won by 19
vs Seahawks
26 (↓3)Rams0.8236
(LW × 0.9796)
6-7Lost by 18
@ Saints
27 (↓3)Redskins0.8198
(LW × 0.9806)
5-8Lost by 1
vs Buccaneers
28 (↑1)Bengals0.7748
(LW × 0.9909)
2-11Lost by 16
@ Steelers
29 (↑1)Seahawks0.7564
(LW × 0.9678)
6-7Lost by 19
@ 49ers
30 (↓2)Broncos0.7391
(LW × 0.9415)
3-10Lost by 30
@ Cardinals
31 (↑1)Cardinals0.7120
(LW × 1.0090)
4-9Won by 30
vs Broncos
32 (↓1)Panthers0.7031
(LW × 0.9908)
1-12Lost by 21
vs Falcons

Comments:

  • You might be sick of hearing about how good the Patriots are, but even APR has them head-and-shoulders above the rest of the league right now. If you go by Power Index ratios, the Patriots are farther above the Falcons (ρ=1.0707) than the Falcons are above the Saints (ρ=1.0593).

  • The Packers' loss to the Lions is pretty devastating. It swings the division tie-breakers the Bears way, and drops them a game back of all the wildcard contenders, including the Buccaneers.

  • Tarvaris Jackson didn't look that great last week, and facing a real defense, he looked a lot worse. The Vikings didn't have a drive longer than 31 yards until deep into garbage time. You can add the Vikings to that growing list of teams that should be looking for free agent quarterback in the offseason.

  • Perhaps even more troubling for the Vikings, their once-vaunted run defense was missing in action—Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw both rushed for over 100 yards.

  • Once again, every team in the NFC West has a losing record. If Matt Cassel misses another week, the Rams might have a chance to get back to .500 this week, but the Seahawks are facing the Falcons, and seem doomed to fall to 6-8.

Thursday, December 9, 2010

NFL: Week 13 Strength of Schedule

RankTeamSOS
unplayed
RankSOS
played
1Bears0.9761230.8643
2Bills0.959210.9293
3Bengals0.959140.9233
4Packers0.9458170.8946
5Saints0.9337310.8345
6Vikings0.9299100.9054
7Giants0.9256260.8634
8Panthers0.9235180.8907
9Patriots0.9231120.9041
10Jets0.9204110.9049
11Dolphins0.916620.9273
12Lions0.916030.9270
13Redskins0.907070.9109
14Browns0.901160.9171
15Eagles0.8937150.8984
16Texans0.890890.9059
17Seahawks0.8887300.8364
18Titans0.8874140.8990
19Colts0.8838190.8897
20Chiefs0.8739290.8386
21Ravens0.8735130.8990
22Cowboys0.872480.9066
23Raiders0.8708280.8533
24Jaguars0.8677210.8872
25Rams0.8577320.8170
26Buccaneers0.8439240.8642
27Steelers0.838650.9212
28Broncos0.8334200.8878
29Chargers0.8203270.8598
3049ers0.8051250.8636
31Cardinals0.7969220.8692
32Falcons0.7796160.8956

Comments:

  • This was computed using the Week 13 power rankings. As before, the "unplayed" strength is a combination of the powers of teams for unplayed games, and the "played" strength is from powers of teams for played games.

  • In the Week 10 Strength of Schedule I posted, the strength of upcoming games was a lot more compressed (0.83 to 0.96).

  • I've bolded all the likely playoff teams, along with those that seem like they have a chance to get in (obvioulsly not all of them will).

  • The Bears' and Packers' remaining schedule is pretty tough—in both cases, 3 of their four remaining games are against teams contending for the playoffs (including each other in week 17).

  • Even with a weaker schedule, the Chargers are in trouble. If they win out, they'll still need help to win the AFC West, or more help to qualify for a wildcard.

  • The Colts' chances pretty much come down to beating the Jaguars week 15 (and taking care of business with the Titans). If they do that, they'll win the AFC South.

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

NFL: Week 14 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Falcons @
Panthers
Falcons
ρ=1.4266
Falcons*
δ=19.5
Falcons
-7½
Bengals @
Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.2858
Steelers
δ=12.1
Steelers
-10
Packers @
Lions
Packers
ρ=1.2300
Packers*
δ=10.4
Packers
-7
Ravens @
Texans
Ravens
ρ=1.1709
Ravens*
δ=6.7
Ravens
-3
Eagles @
Cowboys
Eagles
ρ=1.1309
Eagles*
δ=8.0
Eagles
-3½
Rams @
Saints
Saints
ρ=1.1164
Saints
δ=7.1
Saints
-9½
Broncos @
Cardinals
Broncos
ρ=1.1123
Broncos*
δ=7.1
Broncos
-3
Patriots @
Bears
Patriots
ρ=1.1085
Patriots*
δ=7.5
Patriots
-3
Browns @
Bills
Browns
ρ=1.1076
Browns*
δ=4.7
Bills
-1
Giants @
Vikings
Giants
ρ=1.0953
Giants*
δ=4.1
Giants
-1½
Dolphins @
Jets
Jets*
ρ=1.0786
Jets
δ=3.6
Jets
-5½
Buccaneers @
Redskins
Buccaneers
ρ=1.0609
Buccaneers*
δ=0.6
Buccaneers
-2
Seahawks @
49ers
49ers
ρ=1.0572
49ers
δ=1.1
49ers
-4½
Raiders @
Jaguars
Jaguars*
ρ=1.0403
Raiders*
δ=2.3
Jaguars
-5
Colts @
Titans
Colts
ρ=1.0297
Titans
δ=0.1
Colts
-3
Chiefs @
Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.0144
Chargers
δ=2.8
Chargers
-7

Comments:

  • More agreement this week, only 3 split picks.

  • Looks like 6th-round rookie John Skelton will be starting for the Cardinals this week (backed up by FA acquisition and erstwhile UFL backup Richard Bartel). So it looks like Eric Studesville will have an excellent chance to continue this season's trend of interim coaches winning out of the gate.

  • Packers -7 seems like a lot of points to cover. Yeah, the Lions are 2-10, but they've only lost by more than 4 at home once this year. (The Packers have won by at least 7 points in their last 4 visits to Detroit, though...)

  • Can the Dolphins extend their road record to 6-1? On the one hand, they won't have WR Brian Hartline (out with finger surgery). On the other hand, when the Dolphins have won, it's been mostly running the ball anyway.

  • Browns @ Bills matches up two teams that have lost a lot of close games. Last year, Derek Anderson and the Browns managed to win this matchup in spite of only completing 2 passes for 17 yards. It probably won't be that awful this year. (Why the Cardinals thought Anderson was a worthwhile FA aquisition is far beyond my capacity.)

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

NFL: Week 13 APR vs ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 12 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Seahawks (+10)
I'm not sure it's worth much to argue ranking the Seahawks #20 or #30 (though I think the Browns, Vikings, and Cowboys are all easily better teams). But I will point out the game vs. the Panthers would've been a lot closer without a pick-6 and a long punt return going the Seahawks' way.
In range:
Rams (+6). Last week I said maybe the Rams were ranked too low. But a good team would've come away with touchdowns where the Rams had to settle for field goals.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Browns (-10)
Unlike the Lions, the Browns keep winning just enough for APR to continue to rank them high. Certainly, they're not a team to overlook. And I think it's safe to say they're doing better than last year (they didn't get their second win in 2009 until week 14).

NFL: Week 13 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (10-4)

Right

Saints @ Bengals
Bears @ Lions
Rams @ Cardinals
Falcons @ Buccaneers
Texans @ Eagles
49ers @ Packers
Broncos @ Chiefs
Redskins @ Giants
Panthers @ Seahawks
Jets @ Patriots

Wrong

Jaguars @ Titans
The Titans face another easy-to-score-on defense, and can only put up 6 points (which, to be sure, is 6 more than last week). And for all the Titans' troubles at quarterback, it should be noted that Chris Johnson is struggling too—53 yards rushing is shockingly low for a guy who put up 2000 yards last year.
Browns @ Dolphins
Chad Henne had another bad game, and this time, the running game wasn't enough to bail him out. (But how on Earth are the Dolphins 1-5 at home, and yet 5-1 on the road? Sheesh.)
Raiders @ Chargers
When the Raiders running game works, it is brutal. In this game, six different players ran for a combined 251 yards. They converted 8/15 third-downs, and 2/2 fourth downs. And now the Chargers are finding out it's really not OK to start a season 2-5.
Cowboys @ Colts
Peyton Manning threw 4 more interceptions, including two that went for touchdowns. And whether it was Manning's fault or his receivers, that kind of performance makes it really hard to win games.

Split (APR: 0-2 SRS: 2-0 Line: 1-1)

Bills (APR) @ Vikings (SRS, Line)
The Vikings' defense had easily their best game of the year, generating 5 fumbles (4 recovered), an interception, a sack, and 6 punts. All those extra chances at the ball, along with a solid running game, helped the Vikings produce their 5th win of the season.
Steelers (SRS) @ Ravens (APR, Line)
A tough defensive game on both sides of the ball. And Troy Polamalu made the play of the game stripping Joe Flacco of the ball, and setting up the Steelers' offense for a chance at the game-winning score.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 10- 6 96-80-054.5%
APR VH10- 6 92-84-052.3%
SRS 12- 4101-75-057.4%
SRS VH 7- 9 93-82-153.1%
Line 11- 5112-64-063.6%

Monday, December 6, 2010

NFL: Week 13 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Patriots1.0601
(LW × 1.0178)
10-2Won by 42
vs Jets
2 (↑2)Packers1.0173
(LW × 1.0133)
8-4Won by 18
vs 49ers
3 (-)Falcons1.0124
(LW × 1.0061)
10-2Won by 4
@ Buccaneers
4 (↓2)Ravens1.0068
(LW × 0.9776)
8-4Lost by 3
vs Steelers
5 (↑1)Steelers1.0054
(LW × 1.0134)
9-3Won by 3
@ Ravens
6 (↑1)Eagles0.9908
(LW × 1.0012)
8-4Won by 10
vs Texans
7 (↓2)Jets0.9661
(LW × 0.9629)
9-3Lost by 42
@ Patriots
8 (-)Bears0.9563
(LW × 1.0063)
9-3Won by 4
@ Lions
9 (↑3)Giants0.9542
(LW × 1.0350)
8-4Won by 24
vs Redskins
10 (↑1)Saints0.9386
(LW × 1.0113)
9-3Won by 4
@ Bengals
11 (↑5)Browns0.9227
(LW × 1.0238)
5-7Won by 3
@ Dolphins
12 (↑6)Jaguars0.9129
(LW × 1.0356)
7-5Won by 11
@ Titans
13 (↓4)Chargers0.9060
(LW × 0.9548)
6-6Lost by 15
vs Raiders
14 (↓4)Colts0.8986
(LW × 0.9633)
6-6Lost by 3
vs Cowboys
15 (↓2)Dolphins0.8957
(LW × 0.9862)
6-6Lost by 3
vs Browns
16 (↓1)Chiefs0.8931
(LW × 0.9861)
8-4Won by 4
vs Broncos
17 (-)Buccaneers0.8870
(LW × 0.9981)
7-5Lost by 4
vs Falcons
18 (↑7)Raiders0.8776
(LW × 1.0489)
6-6Won by 15
@ Chargers
19 (↑4)Cowboys0.8761
(LW × 1.0396)
4-8Won by 3
@ Colts
20 (↓6)Titans0.8727
(LW × 0.9626)
5-7Lost by 11
vs Jaguars
21 (↑1)Vikings0.8712
(LW × 1.0238)
5-7Won by 24
vs Bills
22 (↓3)Texans0.8598
(LW × 0.9922)
5-7Lost by 10
@ Eagles
23 (↑1)Rams0.8407
(LW × 1.0033)
6-6Won by 13
@ Cardinals
24 (↓4)Redskins0.8360
(LW × 0.9765)
5-7Lost by 24
@ Giants
25 (↓4)Bills0.8331
(LW × 0.9762)
2-10Lost by 24
@ Vikings
26 (↑1)Lions0.8271
(LW × 0.9982)
2-10Lost by 4
vs Bears
27 (↓1)49ers0.8262
(LW × 0.9968)
4-8Lost by 18
@ Packers
28 (↑1)Broncos0.7849
(LW × 0.9958)
3-9Lost by 4
@ Chiefs
29 (↓1)Bengals0.7819
(LW × 0.9807)
2-10Lost by 4
vs Saints
30 (-)Seahawks0.7815
(LW × 1.0149)
6-6Won by 17
vs Panthers
31 (-)Panthers0.7097
(LW × 0.9798)
1-11Lost by 17
@ Seahawks
32 (-)Cardinals0.7057
(LW × 0.9775)
3-9Lost by 13
vs Rams

Comments:

  • The Jets sure looked awful on MNF this week. Looking back on their record so far, apart from their week 2 victory over the Patriots, they really don't have any impressive wins this year.

  • The Packers continue to climb up the rankings, aided in part by their victories over the Cowboys and Vikings looking better as those teams start to pick up some late-season wins.

  • Congradulations to the Saints, who have 9 wins on the season, and have therefore clinched back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since '91-'92.

  • The Titans tumble down to #20, which is probably still too high. But still a remarkable fall for a team that APR had ranked #3 after week 7.

  • Thanks to the Rams and Seahawks winning this week, the NFC West champion will have at least 7 wins (barring a tie when they play again week 17).

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

NFL: Week 13 Game Picks

All Line values are from yahoo.com, except Jaguars @ Titans, which is from footballlocks.com.

GameAPRSRSLine
49ers @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.2113
Packers
δ=17.5
Packers
-10
Saints @
Bengals
Saints
ρ=1.1641
Saints*
δ=5.3
Saints
-7
Rams @
Cardinals
Rams
ρ=1.1607
Rams*
δ=7.7
Rams
-3
Broncos @
Chiefs
Chiefs
ρ=1.1490
Chiefs
δ=8.2
Chiefs
-9
Bears @
Lions
Bears
ρ=1.1469
Bears*
δ=3.6
Bears
-3
Texans @
Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.1421
Eagles
δ=6.7
Eagles
-8½
Raiders @
Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.1342
Chargers
δ=7.6
Chargers
-13
Falcons @
Buccaneers
Falcons
ρ=1.1324
Falcons*
δ=9.5
Falcons
-3
Cowboys @
Colts
Colts*
ρ=1.1069
Colts
δ=6.1
Colts
-5½
Redskins @
Giants
Giants*
ρ=1.0769
Giants
δ=4.2
Giants
-7
Panthers @
Seahawks
Seahawks*
ρ=1.0631
Seahawks
δ=4.0
Seahawks
-6
Jets @
Patriots
Patriots*
ρ=1.0382
Patriots
δ=0.4
Patriots
-3½
Steelers @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.0379
Steelers*
δ=2.2
Ravens
-3
Jaguars @
Titans
Titans*
ρ=1.0285
Titans
δ=8.1
Titans
-2
Browns @
Dolphins
Dolphins*
ρ=1.0077
Dolphins
δ=1.4
Dolphins
-4½
Bills @
Vikings
Bills
ρ=1.0030
Vikings
δ=0.1
Vikings
-6½

Comments:

  • No word as I write this if Kerry Collins will be able to start Sunday for the Titans. I guess footballlocks thinks he will, as that's pretty much the only chance they have to get a win.

  • Lots of agreement again this week—only two split picks.

  • The Packers haven't lost to the 49ers in the regular season since 1990. Troy Smith will have to do a very good job at quarterback for that streak to end this year.

  • The Seahawks and Rams both have a good chance to win this week. After Sunday there should be at least one team in the NFC West that doesn't have a losing record.

  • APR and SRS both have Bills @ Vikings a very close game. The Vikings have been beating bad teams that can't get out of their own way. Getting a win in the Metrodome can be a tall order, but if the Bills are really improving, they'll have a chance.

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

NFL: Week 12 APR vs ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 12 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Amazing—for the first time this early in the season, there isn't any team outside my 9-position limit. There are some on the bubble, though.

On the bubble:
Seahawks (+8). Can a #22 ranking be too high for a 5-6 team? The Seahawks make a strong case for 'yes'.
In range:
Rams (+6). On the other hand, maybe APR has the Rams ranked too low. They are clearly improving, and with three division games left on their schedule, have a real shot at 8 wins this year (which is more than their combined wins for 2007, 2008, and 2009).

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble:
Browns (-8). The Browns came within a doinked last-second field goal of losing to the Panthers. The Browns may be on the verge of success, but it sure doesn't seem like Jake Delhomme has a part in making it happen.
In range:
Buffalo (-6). They've had two outright wins, and three losses in overtime since their bye. Definitely not a team to pencil in as an easy win anymore.

NFL: Week 12 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (9-3)

Right

Patriots @ Lions
Saints @ Cowboys
Steelers @ Bills
Chiefs @ Seahawks
49ers @ Cardinals
Bengals @ Jets
Jaguars @ Giants
Panthers @ Browns
Buccaneers @ Ravens

Wrong

Vikings @ Redskins
The Redskins offense has struggled this season, and this game is another prime example. Their running game only put up 29 yards, and McNabb was only able to sustain one long drive with his passing. The Vikings special teams nearly gave the game away (the Redskins had a late punt return TD called back on an illegal block), But in the end, the Vikings did (barely) enough to come away with a win.
Chargers @ Colts
The Colts haven't lost at home by 22 points since 1997 (the year before they drafted Peyton Manning). Are the Chargers just a bad matchup for the Colts? You can blame this some on the Colts' many injuries, but the Colts are now 1-5 in their last 6 meetings with the Chargers (including playoffs).
Eagles @ Bears
Vick's interception was the big highlight of the game, but the Eagles' real problem was their defense couldn't get off the field. They just couldn't stop Cutler—he passed for 247 yards and 4 touchdowns (and no interceptions) on just 14 completions. Matt Forte putting up 117 yards rushing helped things along too.

Split (APR: 2-2 SRS: 2-2 Line: 2-2)

Titans (APR, SRS) @ Texans (Line)
Rusty Smith (the Titans' 6th-round pick rookie QB) was really awful in this game: 17/31 for 138 yards and 3 interceptions. The Titans didn't have a drive longer than 27 yards until garbage time, and they are now the only opponent that didn't score at least 24 points on the Texans this season.
Packers (APR, SRS) @ Falcons (Line)
As usual for a close game, there are a lot of things I could point to as turning points. One that really stood out as I watched the game was Mike Turner's running. He got solid yards running up the middle, which made runs to the outside, and play-action a lot more effective. The Packers' running game consisted almost entirely of scrambles by Aaron Rodgers, and as a result, the Packers offense played catch-up the whole game, until time to catch up ran out.
Rams (APR, SRS) @ Broncos (Line)
Sam Bradford had perhaps the best game of his young career, throwing 22/37, 308 yards and 3 touchdowns. Ironically, it was the Rams' defense that nearly let this game slip away, giving up 20 fourth-quarter points, which kept the Broncos in the game right to the final seconds of play.
Dolphins (APR, SRS) @ Raiders (Line)
The Raiders managed just 16(!) yards total running the ball, and Bruce Gradkowski was not able to make it up passing. Chad Henne didn't have a great day at quarterback for the Dolphins, but with Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown running for 180 yards, he didn't really need one.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 11- 5 86-74-053.8%
APR VH 8- 8 82-78-051.2%
SRS 11- 5 89-71-055.6%
SRS VH 7- 9 86-73-154.1%
Line 11- 5101-59-063.1%

Monday, November 29, 2010

NFL: Week 12 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Patriots1.0416
(LW × 1.0236)
9-2Won by 21
@ Lions
2 (-)Ravens1.0298
(LW × 1.0137)
8-3Won by 7
vs Buccaneers
3 (↑4)Falcons1.0063
(LW × 1.0119)
9-2Won by 3
vs Packers
4 (-)Packers1.0040
(LW × 0.9947)
7-4Lost by 3
@ Falcons
5 (-)Jets1.0033
(LW × 0.9996)
9-2Won by 16
vs Bengals
6 (-)Steelers0.9922
(LW × 0.9943)
8-3Won by 3
@ Bills
7 (↓4)Eagles0.9896
(LW × 0.9784)
7-4Lost by 5
@ Bears
8 (↑2)Bears0.9503
(LW × 1.0129)
8-3Won by 5
vs Eagles
9 (↑4)Chargers0.9489
(LW × 1.0381)
6-5Won by 22
@ Colts
10 (↓2)Colts0.9329
(LW × 0.9486)
6-5Lost by 22
vs Chargers
11 (↑1)Saints0.9281
(LW × 1.0149)
8-3Won by 3
@ Cowboys
12 (↓1)Giants0.9219
(LW × 0.9953)
7-4Won by 4
vs Jaguars
13 (↑5)Dolphins0.9082
(LW × 1.0330)
6-5Won by 16
@ Raiders
14 (↓5)Titans0.9066
(LW × 0.9518)
5-6Lost by 20
@ Texans
15 (-)Chiefs0.9056
(LW × 1.0061)
7-4Won by 18
@ Seahawks
16 (↓2)Browns0.9013
(LW × 0.9948)
4-7Won by 1
vs Panthers
17 (↑2)Buccaneers0.8886
(LW × 1.0123)
7-4Lost by 7
@ Ravens
18 (↓1)Jaguars0.8815
(LW × 0.9999)
6-5Lost by 4
@ Giants
19 (↑5)Texans0.8665
(LW × 1.0262)
5-6Won by 20
vs Titans
20 (↓4)Redskins0.8561
(LW × 0.9671)
5-6Lost by 4
vs Vikings
21 (↑2)Bills0.8535
(LW × 1.0106)
2-9Lost by 3
vs Steelers
22 (↑3)Vikings0.8509
(LW × 1.0128)
4-7Won by 4
@ Redskins
23 (↓2)Cowboys0.8428
(LW × 0.9868)
3-8Lost by 3
vs Saints
24 (↑2)Rams0.8379
(LW × 1.0133)
5-6Won by 3
@ Broncos
25 (↓5)Raiders0.8366
(LW × 0.9674)
5-6Lost by 16
vs Dolphins
26 (↑4)49ers0.8289
(LW × 1.0352)
4-7Won by 21
@ Cardinals
27 (↓5)Lions0.8286
(LW × 0.9740)
2-9Lost by 21
vs Patriots
28 (↓1)Bengals0.7973
(LW × 0.9890)
2-9Lost by 16
@ Jets
29 (↓1)Broncos0.7882
(LW × 0.9799)
3-8Lost by 3
vs Rams
30 (↓1)Seahawks0.7700
(LW × 0.9575)
5-6Lost by 18
vs Chiefs
31 (↑1)Panthers0.7243
(LW × 1.0359)
1-10Lost by 1
@ Browns
32 (↓1)Cardinals0.7219
(LW × 0.9543)
3-8Lost by 21
vs 49ers

Comments:

  • The Falcons and Bears sure looked like the class of the NFC on Sunday. Though given the Bears losses to the Seahawks and Redskins, I have to wonder how consistently they can play at that level.

  • The Packers loss doesn't cost them much power, and thanks to the Eagles' fall making a spot for the Falcons, it doesn't cost them rank position either.

  • The top-ranked AFC teams have another unimpressive week, with the Patriots and Jets struggling against bad teams early, and the Steelers needing overtime to beat the Bills.

  • Because the Colts now have 5 losses, their streak of 12+ win seasons ends at 7 (2003-2009). But they have a pretty soft schedule to finish the season, and could easily get to 10 wins (which would extend their now 8-season streak of 10+ win seasons).

  • Every team in the NFC West now has a losing record, and all are ranked in the bottom 10. Although if the Rams can beat the Cardinals next week, both are likely to change.

  • Are the Cardinals the worst team in the NFL right now? After making the 49ers look like world-beaters on MNF, it's hard to argue otherwise.