All line values are from yahoo.com, except Cowboys @ Eagles, which is from footballlocks.com.
| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers @ Falcons | Falcons ρ=1.4274 | Falcons δ=19.1 | Falcons -14½ |
| Dolphins @ Patriots | Patriots ρ=1.3117 | Patriots δ=13.2 | Patriots -3 |
| Bengals @ Ravens | Ravens ρ=1.2422 | Ravens δ=8.0 | Ravens -9½ |
| Chargers @ Broncos | Chargers ρ=1.2350 | Chargers* δ=14.8 | Chargers -3 |
| Titans @ Colts | Colts ρ=1.1359 | Colts δ=1.6 | Colts -9½ |
| Cardinals @ 49ers | 49ers ρ=1.1357 | 49ers δ=3.8 | 49ers -6½ |
| Steelers @ Browns | Steelers ρ=1.1203 | Steelers* δ=8.9 | Steelers -6 |
| Giants @ Redskins | Giants ρ=1.1116 | Giants* δ=6.3 | Giants -4 |
| Cowboys @ Eagles | Eagles ρ=1.1029 | Eagles δ=7.1 | Eagles -7 |
| Buccaneers @ Saints | Saints* ρ=1.1012 | Saints δ=4.5 | Saints -9 |
| Jaguars @ Texans | Jaguars ρ=1.1009 | Texans δ=0.6 | Jaguars -1½ |
| Rams @ Seahawks | Rams ρ=1.1008 | Rams* δ=4.3 | Rams -2½ |
| Bills @ Jets | Jets* ρ=1.0705 | Jets δ=8.3 | Jets -1 |
| Bears @ Packers | Packers* ρ=1.0559 | Packers δ=6.7 | Packers -10 |
| Vikings @ Lions | Lions* ρ=1.0545 | Lions δ=2.9 | Lions -3 |
| Raiders @ Chiefs | Chiefs ρ=1.0220 | Chiefs δ=1.9 | Chiefs -4 |
Comments:
As usual, APR and SRS don't take into account teams that have clinched their playoff berth, and have nothing to play for this week.
In particular, Michael Vick probably won't play, and the Cowboys may have to start rookie Stephen McGee for their quarterback, so what's going to happen in that game is anybody's guess.
The Patriots are another team with little to play for, so the Dolphins actually have an excellent chance to finish with a 7-1 road record, which would bookend nicely with their 1-7 home record.
After looking doubtful for most of the season, my speculation from last July that the Lions could get to 6 wins is looking very good. Of course, it looks better if you don't read the part where I said the Bears and Patriots could struggle.
I wish NBC would choose their week 17 game using more critera than "what's most likely to be a meaningful game?" Yeah, the NFC West will come down to Rams @ Seahawks. But it's unlikely to be a very good game, and has the added disadvantage that it may showcase the first time a division is won by a team with a losing record.
I think Bears @ Packers, Steelers @ Browns, or even Titans @ Colts would be at least as good, and probably better choices for the SNF game.
