Sunday, January 26, 2014

NFL Super Bowl Game Pick

GameAPRSRSLine
Seahawks @
Broncos
Seahawks
ρ=1.0645
Seahawks*
δ=1.3
Broncos
-2

Comments:

  • The Broncos really haven't faced any strong defenses this year (possibly excepting the Chiefs, but the way they finished their season, I'm not sure how strong they really were). In any case, the Seahawks will easily be the best defense they've faced all season.

  • The Broncos' defense has at least a couple ugly breakdowns this year. In week 5, the Broncos managed a win thanks to the fact that the Cowboys had a really bad defense. In Week 12, they saw a 24-point lead slowly slip away at the Patriots.

  • But the line has some good reasons to favor the Broncos in this game. First of all, the Seahawks are just not the same team when they're playing away from their home stadium, and the Meadowlands is a long, long ways away from Seattle.

  • And since their early December win over the Saints, the Seahawks haven't really looked that dominating. They suffered a couple losses (including their first home loss in two years), and both their playoff games came down to the last play of the game.

  • However this game goes, I think it's going to be decided when the Broncos' offense and the Seahawks' defense are on the field. If the Broncos' offensive line can protect Manning, and he can figure out how to move the ball against that defense while the game is still close, it'll probably go the Broncos' way. If the Broncos' offense struggles for very long, I think the Seahawks' offense can score enough points pretty quickly to put this game away.

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

NFL Championship Week Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Patriots @ Broncos (APR, SRS, Line)
The Patriots seemed to have a lot of plays available to them on offense (that overthrown pass to Edelman being the best example), but they couldn't take advantage, at least not as much as they needed to. I wonder how much that's Brady not being on the same page with his receivers, and how much it's Brady getting old.
The Broncos defense seemed like they gave up a lot of plays, but with the way their offense was scoring points (they scored every time they had the ball, except for their first and last drives), the Broncos' defense really didn't need to get a lot of stops, and they got as many as they needed.
49ers @ Seahawks (APR, SRS, Line)
The good news for the 49ers is, they played their best game in Seattle of the Wilson/Kaepernick era, including establishing an early 10 point lead. But they were only able to add one more touchdown to that total, and meanwhile the Seahawks kept chipping away at their lead, and finally managed to pull ahead in the 4th quarter.
I wonder how much of this is Colin Kaepernick having trouble playing in high pressure situations. After their final touchdown, the 49ers offense produced a punt, a lost fumble, and two interceptions. That last interception seemed to me to be particularly bad. If Kaepernick had just thrown the ball away, the 49ers still would've had 2nd and 10 at the 18, with 0:22 left, and probably 3 more chances at a go ahead touchdown. Instead, he threw at probably the Seahawks' best DB, with disastrous results, and the game was over.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 2-0 9-190%
SRS 2-0 8-280%
Line 2-0 8-280%

Sunday, January 19, 2014

NFL Championship Week Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Seahawks1.1377
(LW × 1.0099)
15-3Won by 6
vs 49ers
2 (-)49ers1.1224
(LW × 1.0049)
14-5Lost by 6
@ Seahawks
3 (↑1)Broncos1.0688
(LW × 1.0159)
15-3Won by 10
vs Patriots
4 (↓1)Cardinals1.0587
(LW × 1.0029)
10-6Bye
5 (↑1)Saints1.0225
(LW × 1.0021)
12-6Bye
6 (↑1)Panthers1.0169
(LW × 0.9997)
12-5Bye
7 (↓2)Patriots1.0108
(LW × 0.9886)
13-5Lost by 10
@ Broncos
8 (-)Chargers1.0102
(LW × 1.0049)
10-8Bye
9 (-)Bengals0.9797
(LW × 0.9994)
11-6Bye
10 (-)Rams0.9612
(LW × 1.0028)
7-9Bye
11 (-)Eagles0.9399
(LW × 1.0008)
10-7Bye
12 (-)Steelers0.9298
(LW × 0.9976)
8-8Bye
13 (-)Colts0.9154
(LW × 1.0009)
11-6Bye
14 (↑1)Chiefs0.8995
(LW × 1.0042)
11-6Bye
15 (↓1)Dolphins0.8978
(LW × 0.9973)
8-8Bye
16 (-)Giants0.8849
(LW × 1.0021)
7-9Bye
17 (-)Buccaneers0.8713
(LW × 1.0007)
4-12Bye
18 (-)Ravens0.8675
(LW × 0.9975)
8-8Bye
19 (-)Titans0.8559
(LW × 1.0036)
7-8Bye
20 (-)Vikings0.8513
(LW × 1.0005)
5-10-1Bye
21 (-)Bills0.8470
(LW × 0.9982)
6-10Bye
22 (-)Falcons0.8399
(LW × 1.0011)
4-12Bye
23 (-)Cowboys0.8362
(LW × 1.0010)
8-8Bye
24 (-)Bears0.8301
(LW × 0.9997)
8-8Bye
25 (↑1)Lions0.8272
(LW × 0.9995)
7-9Bye
26 (↓1)Jets0.8263
(LW × 0.9981)
8-8Bye
27 (-)Packers0.8150
(LW × 1.0002)
8-8-1Bye
28 (-)Jaguars0.7935
(LW × 1.0016)
4-12Bye
29 (↑1)Raiders0.7497
(LW × 1.0032)
4-12Bye
30 (↓1)Browns0.7472
(LW × 0.9977)
4-12Bye
31 (-)Texans0.7467
(LW × 1.0019)
2-14Bye
32 (-)Redskins0.7399
(LW × 1.0023)
3-13Bye

Comments:

  • If the 49ers had won, they would have been the first Super Bowl losers to return since the Bills did it in 93.

  • This week marks three championship game appearances in a row for both the Patriots and 49ers. Both have gone 1-2. Both the Broncos and Seahawks fell a win short of advancing to the championship round last year.

  • Between their last Super Bowl appearance and their win over the Chargers a week ago, the Broncos were 2-6 in the playoffs. The Seahawks have gone 3-3 in the playoffs since their last Super Bowl appearance.

  • I was a little surprised the 49ers made such a game of it today, and had a chance to win at the end of the game. Maybe another sign (along with the their loss to the Cardinals last month) that the Seahawks' defense isn't quite as dominating as it used to be.

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

NFL Championship Week Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Patriots @
Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.0289
Broncos
δ=4.7
Broncos
-4½
49ers @
Seahawks
Seahawks*
ρ=1.0085
Seahawks
δ=3.0
Seahawks
-3½

Comments:

  • Can the Patriots get by the Broncos to give Tom Brady a chance at a fourth Super Bowl ring? The Broncos defense hasn't been amazing this year, including giving up 17 points late in last Sunday's game against the Chargers. It seems likely the Patriots will look for every opportunity to exploit that.

    On the other hand, the Patriots really don't have an impressive road record this season, with losses to the Bengals, Dolphins, and Jets. They also needed 4th quarter comebacks to beat the Texans and the Bills. It's always dangerous to underestimate Belichick and Brady, but unless the Broncos just pull a face plant, I think this is where the Patriots season finally ends.

  • Two times the Russell Wilson-era Seahawks have faced the Colin Kaepernick-era 49ers in Seattle, and two times the Seahawks have come away with convincing wins. Is there any reason to think that's going to be different the third time?

    I think the 49ers defense is good enough to hold the Seahawks to a reasonably low number of points on offense. But looking back at their week 2 matchup, probably the most striking thing is the 49ers almost complete inability to move the ball on offense. They only had two drives longer than 28 yards. The 49ers are gonna need a lot more than that from their offense to come away with an upset this week.

Monday, January 13, 2014

NFL Divisional Round Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Things went largely as expected this week, so not too much to say about the games.

Saints @ Seahawks (APR, SRS, Line)
The Saints' defense did surprisingly well in this game, holding the Seahawks to just 16 points until late in the 4th quarter. The problem was, the Saints' offense didn't get going until the 4th quarter, and by then it was just too late to make up the difference.
Colts @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)
The Colts turned the ball over on their opening drive, and never seemed to quite recover their equillibrium. They did manage to keep the game within 7 points going into the 4th quarter, but too many turnovers and too much LeGarrette Blount was more than the Colts could handle.
49ers (APR, SRS, Line) @ Panthers
It didn't seem like the Panthers' defense did a terrible job in this game, but given the offense they have, they needed to do better. The Panthers were 0-4 (including this game) when their opponent scored more than 20 points.
Chargers @ Broncos (APR, SRS, Line)
The Chargers' defense did an okay job slowing down the Broncos offense, holding them to just 17 points through 3 quarters. But their offense just couldn't get going at all. They seemed to find something late when Rivers started throwing a lot of deep balls, but by then it was too late, and once the Broncos' offense got the ball back, they were able to run out the clock for the win.

Totals

No upsets (and no split picks)!

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 4-0 7-183%
SRS 4-0 6-275%
Line 4-0 6-275%

Sunday, January 12, 2014

NFL Divisional Round Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Seahawks1.1265
(LW × 1.0090)
14-3Won by 8
vs Saints
2 (-)49ers1.1170
(LW × 1.0210)
14-4Won by 13
@ Panthers
3 (↑1)Cardinals1.0557
(LW × 1.0007)
10-6Bye
4 (↑2)Broncos1.0520
(LW × 1.0167)
14-3Won by 7
vs Chargers
5 (↑2)Patriots1.0225
(LW × 1.0152)
13-4Won by 21
vs Colts
6 (↓1)Saints1.0203
(LW × 0.9859)
12-6Lost by 8
@ Seahawks
7 (↓4)Panthers1.0172
(LW × 0.9632)
12-5Lost by 13
vs 49ers
8 (-)Chargers1.0052
(LW × 1.0038)
10-8Lost by 7
@ Broncos
9 (-)Bengals0.9803
(LW × 0.9982)
11-6Bye
10 (-)Rams0.9586
(LW × 0.9980)
7-9Bye
11 (-)Eagles0.9392
(LW × 0.9979)
10-7Bye
12 (-)Steelers0.9320
(LW × 0.9998)
8-8Bye
13 (-)Colts0.9146
(LW × 0.9832)
11-6Lost by 21
@ Patriots
14 (-)Dolphins0.9003
(LW × 0.9960)
8-8Bye
15 (-)Chiefs0.8958
(LW × 1.0001)
11-6Bye
16 (-)Giants0.8830
(LW × 1.0010)
7-9Bye
17 (-)Buccaneers0.8706
(LW × 0.9934)
4-12Bye
18 (-)Ravens0.8697
(LW × 1.0000)
8-8Bye
19 (-)Titans0.8528
(LW × 1.0014)
7-8Bye
20 (-)Vikings0.8509
(LW × 0.9994)
5-10-1Bye
21 (-)Bills0.8485
(LW × 0.9975)
6-10Bye
22 (-)Falcons0.8389
(LW × 0.9937)
4-12Bye
23 (-)Cowboys0.8353
(LW × 0.9986)
8-8Bye
24 (↑1)Bears0.8303
(LW × 0.9989)
8-8Bye
25 (↓1)Jets0.8279
(LW × 0.9939)
8-8Bye
26 (-)Lions0.8276
(LW × 0.9986)
7-9Bye
27 (-)Packers0.8149
(LW × 1.0006)
8-8-1Bye
28 (-)Jaguars0.7923
(LW × 0.9999)
4-12Bye
29 (-)Browns0.7489
(LW × 1.0002)
4-12Bye
30 (-)Raiders0.7474
(LW × 1.0014)
4-12Bye
31 (-)Texans0.7453
(LW × 1.0008)
2-14Bye
32 (-)Redskins0.7381
(LW × 1.0018)
3-13Bye

Comments:

  • All remaining teams are in the top 5, along with the staying-at-home Cardinals. It's really too bad the Cardinals couldn't make it into the playoffs. I feel like they really had a chance to make a run, even playing on the road. Certainly if you imagine some hypothetical scenario where they were awarded a playoff seed on the AFC side.

  • I had two thoughts in rapid succession on the last play of the Saints-Seahawks game. First, how on earth did the Seahawks' defense let Marques Colston get that open right next to the sideline? And second, is Marques Colston a complete idiot?

    If Colston had just stepped out of bounds, Brees would at least have had a chance at a 40 yard pass to the endzone. Not the highest percentag play, but it's gotta be better than any sort of lateral play (even supposing Colston's pass had not been illegal).

  • Peyton Manning avoids adding yet another one-and-done playoff run to his resume. He's actually had 4 years where he's won at least one playoff game, including a couple Super Bowl runs.

  • While the Broncos and Patriots are ranked #4 and #5, there's a pretty good gap between their respective power indexes. That will be a matchup ρ of 1.0288, compared to a ρ of 1.0085 for the 49ers-Seahawks game.

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

NFL Divisional Round Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Colts @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.0827
Patriots
δ=1.3
Patriots
-7½
Saints @
Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.0788
Seahawks
δ=4.6
Seahawks
-7½
49ers @
Panthers
49ers
ρ=1.0360
49ers*
δ=0.6
49ers
-1
Chargers @
Broncos
Broncos*
ρ=1.0333
Broncos
δ=7.8
Broncos
-10

Comments:

  • I haven't been real impressed with the Patriots this season, but I don't think the Colts are gonna be the ones to knock them out of the playoffs. When the Patriots have lost this season, it's mostly been because their offense has struggled with their opponents' defense.

    The Colts (as evidenced last Saturday) have an unremarkable defense at best, and I don't think they have enough to slow down the Patriots. And unlike the Chiefs, Bill Belechick and Tom Brady know how to hang on to a 4 touchdown lead.

  • The Saints played the Seahawks in Seattle week 13, and got clobbered. Since then, the Seahawks have lost twice, including once to the Cardinals in Seattle, so the Saints have at least some idea of what it takes to win. But I just don't feel like the Saints' defense is as good as the Cardinals or 49ers, so unless the Seahawks just come out really flat, this game should go the Seahawks way again.

  • I think on paper, the Panthers are a better team than the 49ers. Especially playing at home, this is a game the Panthers should win. That said, I think there's a couple factors working in the 49ers favor.

    First of all, this is another case of a quarterback and head coach (Kaepernick and Harbaugh) with playoff experience versus a pair (Newton and Rivera) with none. I think this is a less extreme case than the Saints-Eagles matchup last week, but it is there.

    Second, and probably more important, I wonder how ready the Panthers are to play in the high-pressure, high attention environment of the playoffs. The Panthers' last loss came week 14 in a Sunday night prime time matchup at the Saints. If they come out as flat as they were in that game, the 49ers will clobber them.

  • Of course, the Chargers got a big-time upset over the Broncos in Denver week 15. And Peyton Manning is notorious for one-and-done playoff appearances. That said, unless the Broncos turn the ball over like the Bengals did, I think this is where the clock chime midnight on the Chargers Cinderella season.

Monday, January 6, 2014

NFL Wildcard Round Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Chiefs (SRS) @ Colts (APR, Line)
This was a pretty ugly game for both teams. But especially so for the Chiefs, who got to 11 wins and a playoff berth largely on the strength of their defense. They had a 28 point lead early in the 3rd quarter, and then... just fell apart. Their offense mostly didn't sustain drives, their defense couldn't get off the field, and the Colts managed to chip away at that lead until it was gone.
Saints (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)
The Eagles were 1-3 in the regular season when they allowed 26 or more points, so a lot of this has to go on their defense. But their (sometimes, anyway) high-powered offense never got going, either. Nick Foles only passed for 195 yards, and LeSean McCoy was held to just 77 yards rushing.
There were coaching issues, too. When the Saints got down inside the 20 with less than 2 minutes left, the Eagles really should have let the Saints score. Yeah, they would have been down 5 or 7 (depending on whether the Saints made the 2 point conversion), but at least they would've had a chance to respond. Instead, the Saints got another first down, drained away the rest of the clock, and kicked the winning field goal as time expired.
Chargers @ Bengals (APR, SRS, Line)
I mentioned in the game picks that the Chargers would need 4 turnovers to have a chance (and then dismissed it, since the Chargers hardly ever got turnovers in the regular season). But the Bengals were more obliging, giving up a couple fumbles, and Dalton throwing a couple interceptions. Mix in an offense that couldn't much maintain drives even when they didn't end in turnovers, and the Bengals' playoff victory drought will continue for another year.
49ers (APR, SRS, Line) @ Packers
Well, the Packers didn't need to score 40 to win this, but they did need more than 20. There's some blame that can be placed on the defense, especially on that last drive, but honestly, holding the 49ers to 23 points is pretty good work for that bunch.
The real probelm for me was the offense, which punted 5 times, and settled for a game tying field goal after having goal to goal on their last drive. This is a team that scored 28 or more points 8 times in the regular season, including the season opener against these same 49ers. The Packers just need more from their offense to win this game.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 3-1 3-175%
SRS 2-2 2-250%
Line 2-2 2-250%

Sunday, January 5, 2014

NFL Wildcard Week Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Seahawks1.1165
(LW × 1.0011)
13-3Bye
2 (-)49ers1.0940
(LW × 0.9891)
13-4Won by 3
@ Packers
3 (-)Panthers1.0560
(LW × 1.0009)
12-4Bye
4 (-)Cardinals1.0549
(LW × 1.0008)
10-6Bye
5 (-)Saints1.0349
(LW × 1.0087)
12-5Won by 2
@ Eagles
6 (↑1)Broncos1.0348
(LW × 1.0170)
13-3Bye
7 (↑1)Patriots1.0072
(LW × 0.9998)
12-4Bye
8 (↑2)Chargers1.0014
(LW × 1.0584)
10-7Won by 17
@ Bengals
9 (↓3)Bengals0.9821
(LW × 0.9624)
11-6Lost by 17
vs Chargers
10 (↓1)Rams0.9605
(LW × 1.0009)
7-9Bye
11 (↑1)Eagles0.9411
(LW × 1.0063)
10-7Lost by 2
vs Saints
12 (↓1)Steelers0.9322
(LW × 0.9957)
8-8Bye
13 (-)Colts0.9302
(LW × 1.0047)
11-5Won by 1
vs Chiefs
14 (-)Dolphins0.9039
(LW × 1.0014)
8-8Bye
15 (-)Chiefs0.8957
(LW × 1.0149)
11-6Lost by 1
@ Colts
16 (↑2)Giants0.8821
(LW × 1.0117)
7-9Bye
17 (-)Buccaneers0.8764
(LW × 1.0001)
4-12Bye
18 (↓2)Ravens0.8697
(LW × 0.9915)
8-8Bye
19 (↑2)Titans0.8516
(LW × 1.0049)
7-8Bye
20 (↓1)Vikings0.8514
(LW × 0.9993)
5-10-1Bye
21 (↓1)Bills0.8506
(LW × 1.0002)
6-10Bye
22 (-)Falcons0.8442
(LW × 1.0023)
4-12Bye
23 (↑1)Cowboys0.8365
(LW × 1.0078)
8-8Bye
24 (↓1)Jets0.8329
(LW × 0.9981)
8-8Bye
25 (-)Bears0.8312
(LW × 1.0033)
8-8Bye
26 (-)Lions0.8288
(LW × 1.0008)
7-9Bye
27 (-)Packers0.8144
(LW × 1.0181)
8-8-1Lost by 3
vs 49ers
28 (-)Jaguars0.7924
(LW × 1.0041)
4-12Bye
29 (-)Browns0.7487
(LW × 0.9960)
4-12Bye
30 (↑1)Raiders0.7463
(LW × 1.0133)
4-12Bye
31 (↓1)Texans0.7447
(LW × 1.0053)
2-14Bye
32 (-)Redskins0.7368
(LW × 1.0087)
3-13Bye

Comments:

  • The road teams went 3-1 this round, which is probably good news for the teams playing at home next week.

  • Congratulations to the Saints, who got their first road win in the playoffs this week. That leaves the Bengals as the only franchise without a road win in the playoffs. (Although the Lions don't have one since 1957, and the Browns don't have one since 1969.)

  • Sadly, the Packers couldn't quite pull off the upset, and so the FSPI streak of the lowest ranked playoff team winning in the first round ends this year.

  • The Eagles move up a spot on their loss, at least partly because the Steelers look worse because of the Bengals 17 point loss (note the Ravens also dropped a couple spots).

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

NFL Wildcard Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
49ers @
Packers
49ers
ρ=1.3828
49ers*
δ=13.2
49ers
-2½
Saints @
Eagles
Saints*
ρ=1.0970
Saints*
δ=6.9
Eagles
-2½
Chargers @
Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.0785
Bengals
δ=2.7
Bengals
-6½
Chiefs @
Colts
Colts*
ρ=1.0491
Chiefs*
δ=1.9
Colts
-2½

Comments:

  • Can the Packers avoid another home loss in the playoffs? Their defense didn't look good in their week 1 matchup against the 49ers, although even so, the Packers had a chance to win at the end. And now that the 49ers have Michael Crabtree back, it could be even tougher on the Packers' defense. And if the conditions favor running over passing, the 49ers can rely on Gore and Kaepernick rushing the ball.

    The Packers should have at least a chance in this game, but I think they're gonna need to score at least 40 points to finish on top.

  • As I've mentioned before, the Saints aren't nearly as good on the road as they are in the dome. The Eagles are 7-1 in their last 8 games, but have some tough losses, including that week 15 loss to the otherwise hapless Vikings. The Line is probably right in picking the Eagles, but I feel like the experience of Drew Brees and Sean Payton (compared to the lack thereof for Foles and Kelly) could tip this game in favor of the Saints.

    I'm not saying this is gonna be an upset. I just feel like the potential is there.

  • Before the Chiefs fell apart against the Colts a couple weeks ago, I would have picked them as easy winners of this game. But even with that win over the Chiefs, the Colts have mostly looked not very impressive since Reggie Wayne got hurt. And if the Chiefs can get their defense going, and get at least a few scores out of their offense, this should be a winnable game for them.

  • I think the Bengals are the easiest pick this week. The Chargers barely squeaked into the playoffs, thanks to an overtime win over the "light" version of the Chiefs. Maybe if Andy Dalton throws 4 interceptions again, the Chargers might have a chance. (It's also worth noting the Chargers' defense was one of the NFL's worst in getting turnovers. Only the Jets and Texans had fewer.)