Wednesday, January 1, 2014

NFL Wildcard Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
49ers @
Packers
49ers
ρ=1.3828
49ers*
δ=13.2
49ers
-2½
Saints @
Eagles
Saints*
ρ=1.0970
Saints*
δ=6.9
Eagles
-2½
Chargers @
Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.0785
Bengals
δ=2.7
Bengals
-6½
Chiefs @
Colts
Colts*
ρ=1.0491
Chiefs*
δ=1.9
Colts
-2½

Comments:

  • Can the Packers avoid another home loss in the playoffs? Their defense didn't look good in their week 1 matchup against the 49ers, although even so, the Packers had a chance to win at the end. And now that the 49ers have Michael Crabtree back, it could be even tougher on the Packers' defense. And if the conditions favor running over passing, the 49ers can rely on Gore and Kaepernick rushing the ball.

    The Packers should have at least a chance in this game, but I think they're gonna need to score at least 40 points to finish on top.

  • As I've mentioned before, the Saints aren't nearly as good on the road as they are in the dome. The Eagles are 7-1 in their last 8 games, but have some tough losses, including that week 15 loss to the otherwise hapless Vikings. The Line is probably right in picking the Eagles, but I feel like the experience of Drew Brees and Sean Payton (compared to the lack thereof for Foles and Kelly) could tip this game in favor of the Saints.

    I'm not saying this is gonna be an upset. I just feel like the potential is there.

  • Before the Chiefs fell apart against the Colts a couple weeks ago, I would have picked them as easy winners of this game. But even with that win over the Chiefs, the Colts have mostly looked not very impressive since Reggie Wayne got hurt. And if the Chiefs can get their defense going, and get at least a few scores out of their offense, this should be a winnable game for them.

  • I think the Bengals are the easiest pick this week. The Chargers barely squeaked into the playoffs, thanks to an overtime win over the "light" version of the Chiefs. Maybe if Andy Dalton throws 4 interceptions again, the Chargers might have a chance. (It's also worth noting the Chargers' defense was one of the NFL's worst in getting turnovers. Only the Jets and Texans had fewer.)