Thursday, October 30, 2014

NFL Week 9 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Jets @
Chiefs
Chiefs
ρ=1.3623
Chiefs
δ=17.6
Chiefs
-10
Raiders @
Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.3178
Seahawks
δ=13.5
Seahawks
-15
Jaguars @
Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.2599
Bengals
δ=12.2
Bengals
-11
Rams @
49ers
49ers
ρ=1.2303
49ers
δ=12.9
49ers
-10
Broncos @
Patriots
Broncos
ρ=1.2002
Broncos*
δ=10.9
Broncos
-3
Buccaneers @
Browns
Browns
ρ=1.1896
Browns
δ=14.8
Browns
-6½
Colts @
Giants
Colts
ρ=1.1256
Colts*
δ=10.6
Colts
-3
Washington @
Vikings
Washington
ρ=1.0773
Washington*
δ=4.4
Vikings
-1
Chargers @
Dolphins
Chargers
ρ=1.0725
Chargers*
δ=6.2
Dolphins
-1½
Eagles @
Texans
Eagles
ρ=1.0712
Eagles*
δ=4.2
Eagles
-2
Ravens @
Steelers
Ravens*
ρ=1.0693
Ravens*
δ=9.4
Steelers
-1
Cardinals @
Cowboys
Cardinals
ρ=1.0506
Cardinals*
δ=2.5
Cowboys
-4
Saints @
Panthers
Saints*
ρ=1.0370
Saints*
δ=3.9
Saints
-3

Bye: Packers, Falcons, Lions, Titans, Bears, Bills

Comments:

  • No line for Ravens @ Steelers. Hopefully I can update before Sunday. Update: almost forgot. Still no agreement, a couple Lines going for Steelers, so that's how I'll go here.

  • -15 seems like a lot of points for the Seahawks to cover this week. Yeah, they're playing at home, and yeah, the Raiders are a bad team. But the Seahawks are also clearly not as good as they were last year either.

  • Some trepidation for the Washington/Vikings line as well, presumably based on the status of RG3. I'll check that one Saturday too.

  • Time for another Manning-Brady matchup, as well as a rematch of the AFC Championship game. As I mentioned in the power rankings, the Broncos are ranked head and shoulders above everybody else after having beaten the 49ers and Chargers. If they can beat the Patriots in their own house, it will give them a trio of really strong victories, and the inside track on the AFC's #1 seed.

  • The Line likes the Cowboys over the Cardinals. I think this is another mistake, especially with Romo hurt. The Cowboys struggled to score against Washington, and now they'll be facing a team with a real defense (even, I think, if Patrick Peterson has to sit out).

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

NFL Week 8 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-2)

Right:

Lions @ Falcons
Dolphins @ Jaguars
Seahawks @ Panthers
Texans @ Titans
Chargers @ Broncos
Rams @ Chiefs
Bears @ Patriots
Raiders @ Browns

Wrong:

Washington @ Cowboys
This loss has to go on the Cowboys offense, which was struggling even before Romo got hurt. They had two more turnovers, but I think the game was really lost on the 6 drives that ended on a punt, turnover on downs, or the first half expiring. The Cowboys just need to score more than 17 points to win games.
Colts @ Steelers
This was just a massive breakdown in the Colts' defense. The Steelers scored touchdowns on 5 of their first 6 drives, all 76 yards or longer. In spite of the Steelers having a not-so-dominating second half, that was enough to put the game out of reach for the Colts.

Split Picks: (APR 3-2, SRS 2-3, Line 3-2)

Packers (APR, SRS) @ Saints (Line)
Part of this was the Packers failing to get into the end zone early, aided by some really idiotic playcalling. I mean, when you've got Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Eddie Lacy, and Davante Adams in your receiving corp, you don't need Julius Peppers on the field in a goal to go situation.
Part of this was the defense once again failing to get a punt, or even slow down the Saints in the second half. And once Aaron Rodgers tweaked his hamstring, and the Packers stopped scoring on every drive, this game was pretty much over.
Bills (APR, SRS) @ Jets (Line)
The Bills may not be a great team, but the Jets are awful. This was just a flat mistake for the Line to take them here.
Vikings (APR, SRS) @ Buccaneers (Line)
A close game featuring a couple bad teams. A couple notable differences for the Vikings. For the first time since their late September blow out win over the Falcons, they scored more than 16 points, and they didn't turn the ball over. It wasn't by any means a dominating performance, but it was enough to get a road win over a weak opponent.
Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Bengals (Line)
Is there any figuring the Bengals? Given their three games prior to this one, they looked doomed to a long ugly slide at least until they could get AJ Green Back. Instead they got some solid receiving production from Mohamet Sanu, okay results from their running back by committee approach, and decent production from their defense, that held their opponent under 27 points for the first time since September. In all, it was enough to stop the Ravens, who before this week looked like they might run away with the AFC North.
Eagles (SRS) @ Cardinals (APR, Line)
Watching this game, it seemed like the Eagles were mostly the better team on offense. But 6 punts and 3 turnovers meant they had a lot of drives that didn't put any points on the board, and gave the Cardinals opportunity to control the game, which they did.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 11- 5 64-37-163.2%
SRS 10- 6 62-39-161.3%
Line 11- 5 69-32-168.1%

Monday, October 27, 2014

NFL Week 8 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Broncos1.1597
(LW × 0.9923)
6-1Won by 14
vs Chargers
2 (↑1)Cardinals1.0204
(LW × 1.0050)
6-1Won by 4
vs Eagles
3 (↑2)Chiefs0.9979
(LW × 1.0037)
4-3Won by 27
vs Rams
4 (↓2)Colts0.9850
(LW × 0.9351)
5-3Lost by 17
@ Steelers
5 (↑1)Eagles0.9792
(LW × 0.9866)
5-2Lost by 4
@ Cardinals
6 (↓2)Cowboys0.9713
(LW × 0.9592)
6-2Lost by 3
vs Washington
7 (↑5)Patriots0.9663
(LW × 1.0227)
6-2Won by 28
vs Bears
8 (↓1)Chargers0.9632
(LW × 0.9762)
5-3Lost by 14
@ Broncos
9 (↓1)49ers0.9601
(LW × 0.9871)
4-3Bye
10 (-)Ravens0.9563
(LW × 0.9914)
5-3Lost by 3
@ Bengals
11 (↓2)Seahawks0.9518
(LW × 0.9844)
4-3Won by 4
@ Panthers
12 (↑1)Lions0.9177
(LW × 0.9910)
6-2Won by 1
@ Falcons
13 (↑2)Texans0.9141
(LW × 1.0276)
4-4Won by 14
@ Titans
14 (-)Bengals0.9125
(LW × 0.9991)
4-2-1Won by 3
vs Ravens
15 (↓4)Packers0.9086
(LW × 0.9442)
5-3Lost by 21
@ Saints
16 (↑1)Bills0.9016
(LW × 1.0254)
5-3Won by 20
@ Jets
17 (↓1)Dolphins0.8981
(LW × 1.0192)
4-3Won by 14
@ Jaguars
18 (↑1)Steelers0.8944
(LW × 1.0586)
5-3Won by 17
vs Colts
19 (↓1)Giants0.8750
(LW × 1.0027)
3-4Bye
20 (↑5)Saints0.8534
(LW × 1.0600)
3-4Won by 21
vs Packers
21 (-)Browns0.8496
(LW × 1.0141)
4-3Won by 10
vs Raiders
22 (↑1)Washington0.8389
(LW × 1.0358)
3-5Won by 3
@ Cowboys
23 (↓1)Panthers0.8230
(LW × 0.9903)
3-4-1Lost by 4
vs Seahawks
24 (↓4)Bears0.8173
(LW × 0.9685)
3-5Lost by 28
@ Patriots
25 (↑1)Rams0.7804
(LW × 0.9851)
2-5Lost by 27
@ Chiefs
26 (↑1)Vikings0.7787
(LW × 1.0138)
3-5Won by 6
@ Buccaneers
27 (↓3)Titans0.7646
(LW × 0.9488)
2-6Lost by 14
vs Texans
28 (↑2)Falcons0.7391
(LW × 1.0106)
2-6Lost by 1
vs Lions
29 (↓1)Jets0.7325
(LW × 0.9586)
1-7Lost by 20
vs Bills
30 (↓1)Jaguars0.7243
(LW × 0.9688)
1-7Lost by 14
vs Dolphins
31 (-)Raiders0.7222
(LW × 1.0052)
0-7Lost by 10
@ Browns
32 (-)Buccaneers0.7142
(LW × 1.0056)
1-6Lost by 6
vs Vikings

Comments:

  • If you look at the power index values, it's the Broncos' world, and the other teams are just living in it.

  • The last time the Packers gave up at least 44 points in the regular season was in 2008... at the Saints.

  • The Cardinals have somehow managed to make it to 6-1. Their offense sure doesn't seem that good, and their defense doesn't seem that dominating. One change over last year that helps a lot is the fact that the offense hardly ever turns over the ball. They've lost the ball just 5 times so far this season, compared with 17 turnovers through 7 games last year.

  • Yeah, this is a miniscule sample space, but Andrew Luck and the Colts are now 4-8 in regular season road games outside the AFC South. All but one of the losses was by double-digit margins, too (and it only gets worse if you include playoff games).

  • You have to go back to 1997 to find a season where the Lions did better than 4-4 in the second half of the season. I know that covers a lot of players and a lot of coaches (not to mention Matt Millen) but there's a certain... institutional consistency going on there. Especially given the way they struggled to beat the Falcons this week, the Lions are a long way from clinching anything just yet.

Thursday, October 23, 2014

NFL Week 8 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Lions @
Falcons
Lions
ρ=1.2661
Lions*
δ=10.0
Lions
-3½
Rams @
Chiefs
Chiefs*
ρ=1.2550
Chiefs
δ=16.7
Chiefs
-6½
Washington @
Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.2503
Cowboys
δ=9.5
Cowboys
-9½
Colts @
Steelers
Colts
ρ=1.2467
Colts*
δ=20.1
Colts
-2½
Packers @
Saints
Packers
ρ=1.1952
Packers*
δ=12.7
Saints
-1
Chargers @
Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.1845
Broncos
δ=7.4
Broncos
-7½
Dolphins @
Jaguars
Dolphins
ρ=1.1786
Dolphins*
δ=13.4
Dolphins
-5½
Raiders @
Browns
Browns
ρ=1.1661
Browns
δ=3.7
Browns
-7
Seahawks @
Panthers
Seahawks
ρ=1.1634
Seahawks*
δ=14.4
Seahawks
-4½
Bills @
Jets
Bills
ρ=1.1506
Bills*
δ=5.5
Jets
-3
Bears @
Patriots
Patriots*
ρ=1.1195
Patriots
δ=6.4
Patriots
-6½
Texans @
Titans
Texans
ρ=1.1038
Texans*
δ=6.9
Texans
-1
Vikings @
Buccaneers
Vikings
ρ=1.0814
Vikings*
δ=11.2
Buccaneers
-2½
Ravens @
Bengals
Ravens
ρ=1.0561
Ravens*
δ=8.6
Bengals
-1
Eagles @
Cardinals
Cardinals*
ρ=1.0230
Eagles*
δ=1.1
Cardinals
-2½

Bye: 49ers, Giants

Comments:

  • Since their blow-out win over the Buccaneers, the Falcons have averaged 17 points a game, and (with the exception of the Ravens) facing some pretty bad defenses. Given how good the Lions' defense has been, the Falcons might actually be looking at their first shut out since 2004.

  • Should the Saints be favored to win this week? They don't lose very often at home, and with a prime time game and on the brink of falling to 2-5, they're going to be as jacked up for this game as any this season.

    On the other hand, their two home wins so far this season were not exactly dominating afairs, in spite of a couple pretty weak opponents. I think if the Packers come ready for a battle, this is one they can win.

  • Can the Browns get back on track against the Raiders? After watching the Cardinals @ Raiders game last week, I think the Raiders are not as bad as their 0-6 record, and if the Browns are not careful, they could wind up giving a win to the final remaining winless team.

  • Remember when the Bengals were one of the last undefeated teams in the league? That's gotta seem like a long time ago to them and their fans. Especially if AJ Green can't play, this seems like it should be a pretty easy win for the Ravens.

  • Eagles @ Cardinals is actually one of the marquee matchups this week. But with the way the Eagles turn over the ball, and have needed a lot of help from their special teams to put points on the board, I think they're going to have a tough time getting ahead of the Cardinals.

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

NFL Week 7 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-3)

Right:

Cardinals @ Raiders
Jets @ Patriots
Vikings @ Bills
Saints @ Lions
Panthers @ Packers
Bengals @ Colts
Giants @ Cowboys
49ers @ Broncos

Wrong:

Chiefs @ Chargers
The Chargers win when they score 22+ points (which they've done 5 times this season) and the Chiefs lose when they give up 22+ points (which they've done 3 times this season), so easy pick, right?
But in this game, the Chiefs defense held the Chargers to just two touchdown drives and two field goals (thanks in part to the offense holding onto the ball for 39 minutes). That gave the Chiefs an opportunity to stay in the game, and in classic football cliche style, win the game in the fourth quarter.
Seahawks @ Rams
Of course, the Rams got a big boost from their special teams, But for the second week in a row, the Seahawks offense struggled to move the ball, posting 5 drives 41 yards or shorter. They had three sustained drives late, but ran out of time before they could complete a comeback.
Browns @ Jaguars
The Browns offense couldn't get anything going in this game, punting 7 times and turning the ball over on downs three times. Still, they were only down 6-7 late in the fourth quarter when a couple turnovers gave the Jags short fields that they turned into easy touchdowns.

Split Picks: (APR 0-3, SRS 2-1, Line 2-1)

Wow, maybe the ugliest week ever for APR on split picks.

Dolphins (SRS) @ Bears (APR, Line)
I think the Dolphins have an underrated defense, and when they face a struggling offense like the Bears, it can swing a game their way. The Bears had 3 turnovers, and other than their two touchdowns, their longest drive went 35 yards. The Dolphins offense isn't gonna set any records this season, but it didn't take a lot for them to finish ahead of the Bears in this game.
Titans (APR) @ Washington (SRS, Line)
A close game against a couple mediocre teams. Washington actually had 115 more yards of offense, so this is a game they should win as long as they don't make any big mistakes. Colt McCoy only threw for 128 yards in the second half, but he only threw incomplete once, and didn't throw any interceptions. That was enough to give them a 2 point victory over the Titans.
Texans (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)
Well, the Texans established an early 13-0 lead, and could've won this game. But two turnovers deep in their own end gave the Steelers a couple easy touchdowns, and it was more than the Texans could overcome.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 8- 6 53-32-162.2%
SRS 10- 4 52-33-161.0%
Line 10- 4 58-27-168.0%

Monday, October 20, 2014

NFL Week 7 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Broncos1.1687
(LW × 1.0323)
5-1Won by 25
vs 49ers
2 (↑1)Colts1.0533
(LW × 1.0419)
5-2Won by 27
vs Bengals
3 (↓1)Cardinals1.0154
(LW × 0.9911)
5-1Won by 11
@ Raiders
4 (-)Cowboys1.0126
(LW × 1.0100)
6-1Won by 10
vs Giants
5 (↑7)Chiefs0.9942
(LW × 1.0530)
3-3Won by 3
@ Chargers
6 (↑4)Eagles0.9925
(LW × 1.0343)
5-1Bye
7 (↓2)Chargers0.9867
(LW × 0.9851)
5-2Lost by 3
vs Chiefs
8 (-)49ers0.9727
(LW × 0.9983)
4-3Lost by 25
@ Broncos
9 (↓3)Seahawks0.9668
(LW × 0.9659)
3-3Lost by 2
@ Rams
10 (↓3)Ravens0.9646
(LW × 0.9826)
5-2Won by 22
vs Falcons
11 (↑3)Packers0.9623
(LW × 1.0307)
5-2Won by 21
vs Panthers
12 (↓1)Patriots0.9448
(LW × 0.9911)
5-2Won by 2
vs Jets
13 (-)Lions0.9260
(LW × 0.9911)
5-2Won by 1
vs Saints
14 (↓5)Bengals0.9134
(LW × 0.9510)
3-2-1Lost by 27
@ Colts
15 (-)Texans0.8896
(LW × 0.9757)
3-4Lost by 7
@ Steelers
16 (↑6)Dolphins0.8811
(LW × 1.0620)
3-3Won by 13
@ Bears
17 (-)Bills0.8793
(LW × 0.9804)
4-3Won by 1
vs Vikings
18 (↑1)Giants0.8727
(LW × 1.0007)
3-4Lost by 10
@ Cowboys
19 (↑2)Steelers0.8449
(LW × 1.0156)
4-3Won by 7
vs Texans
20 (↓2)Bears0.8439
(LW × 0.9569)
3-4Lost by 13
vs Dolphins
21 (↓5)Browns0.8378
(LW × 0.9273)
3-3Lost by 18
@ Jaguars
22 (↓2)Panthers0.8311
(LW × 0.9584)
3-3-1Lost by 21
@ Packers
23 (↑2)Washington0.8099
(LW × 1.0174)
2-5Won by 2
vs Titans
24 (↓1)Titans0.8059
(LW × 0.9970)
2-5Lost by 2
@ Washington
25 (↓1)Saints0.8051
(LW × 1.0106)
2-4Lost by 1
@ Lions
26 (↑3)Rams0.7922
(LW × 1.0733)
2-4Won by 2
vs Seahawks
27 (↓1)Vikings0.7681
(LW × 1.0271)
2-5Lost by 1
@ Bills
28 (-)Jets0.7642
(LW × 1.0335)
1-6Lost by 2
@ Patriots
29 (↑3)Jaguars0.7476
(LW × 1.0851)
1-6Won by 18
vs Browns
30 (↓3)Falcons0.7314
(LW × 0.9866)
2-5Lost by 22
@ Ravens
31 (-)Raiders0.7185
(LW × 1.0249)
0-6Lost by 11
vs Cardinals
32 (↓2)Buccaneers0.7103
(LW × 1.0038)
1-5Bye

Comments:

  • The Patriots struggle to beat another lesser opponent in their home stadium. If the Jets had won, one of the things I would've pointed to was their third down coversion rate (9 of 16) as a major factor in keeping them in the game.

  • Well, the Bengals were +2 on turnovers against the Colts, but the Bengals offense just collapsed against what has been an unremarkable defense (although the Colts defense is currently best in the league on third down conversions, thanks in part to a 1/13 performance by the Bengals).

  • One of the big differences for the Seahawks between last year and this is turnovers. Last year they finished the regular season with a +20 cumulative turnover margin. This year, nearly halfway into the season, they're currently at +1.

  • The Eagles, Colts, and Cowboys are all in the top 5 of turnovers on offense right now. They might all make it to the postseason, but as I've observed before, turnovers can be a real deal breaker when it comes playoff time.

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

NFL Week 7 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Cardinals @
Raiders
Cardinals
ρ=1.4615
Cardinals*
δ=15.7
Cardinals
-3½
Seahawks @
Rams
Seahawks
ρ=1.3561
Seahawks*
δ=22.2
Seahawks
-6½
Falcons @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.3243
Ravens
δ=14.5
Ravens
-7
Browns @
Jaguars
Browns
ρ=1.3114
Browns*
δ=15.5
Browns
-5½
Jets @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.2892
Patriots
δ=11.1
Patriots
-10
Vikings @
Bills
Bills
ρ=1.1993
Bills
δ=10.9
Bills
-4
Saints @
Lions
Lions
ρ=1.1728
Lions
δ=11.3
Lions
-2½
49ers @
Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.1619
Broncos
δ=9.2
Broncos
-6½
Giants @
Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.1497
Cowboys
δ=4.4
Cowboys
-5½
Texans @
Steelers
Texans
ρ=1.0960
Texans*
δ=10.9
Steelers
-3½
Panthers @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.0767
Packers
δ=9.8
Packers
-7
Dolphins @
Bears
Bears*
ρ=1.0629
Dolphins*
δ=2.4
Bears
-3½
Chiefs @
Chargers
Chargers*
ρ=1.0608
Chargers
δ=3.0
Chargers
-4
Bengals @
Colts
Colts
ρ=1.0525
Colts
δ=7.0
Colts
-3
Titans @
Washington
Titans
ρ=1.0154
Washington
δ=2.7
Washington
-4½

Bye: Buccaneers, Eagles

Comments:

  • Peyton Manning is only 2 touchdowns away from tying Brett Favre's carrer total (and league record) of 508. Manning has passed for at least 2 touchdowns every game this year, including against the Seahawks.

    The 49ers haven't been giving up many passing touchdowns, but they really haven't faced a lot of big passing threats either. It seems like a lock Manning will at least tie the record Sunday night

  • I feel like the Steelers are a bad pick for the Line this week. The Steelers have been deeply unimpressive so far this season, giving the Buccaneers their first (and so far only) win of the season, and struggling to beat the now 0-6 Jaguars.

    The Texans haven't looked like world-beaters either, but at least they've been competitive against some tougher teams. I think APR and SRS are right here.

  • Everybody likes the Colts to win at home this week. But their offense has one of the highest turnover totals in the league so far this season. If the Bengals can get some turnovers, they'll have a chance to jump start their season with an upset win this week.

  • The Lions' defense has looked a lot better this season than it has in a long time. But with Drew Brees and the Saints coming to town, they'll be facing one of their toughest tests of the season, especially if Calvin Johnson has to sit out again.

  • The Packers are favored to win again against what feels like an under-rated opponent. Cam Newton had a field day running against the Bengals last week, and he might have another one against the Packers.

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

NFL Week 6 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (10-1-1)

Right:

Colts @ Texans
Chargers @ Raiders
Broncos @ Jets
Ravens @ Buccaneers
Lions @ Vikings
Packers @ Dolphins
49ers @ Rams
Washington @ Cardinals
Jaguars @ Titans
Steelers @ Browns

Wrong:

Cowboys @ Seahawks
This has to be the ugliest game the Seahawks have played in a long time. The defense couldn't get off the field (the Cowboys had 4 drives of 71+ yards and held the ball for over 37 minutes of game time) and the offense couldn't get anything started, posting just one drive longer than 24 yards. If the Seahawks hadn't had a touchdown on a blocked punt, this game would've been even uglier for the Seahawks than it was.

Push:

Panthers @ Bengals
Mike Nugent is the easy scapegoat here, but mostly what I'm thinking in looking at this game is, didn't the Bengals used to have a defense? Giving up 43 points to the Patriots on the road is one thing, but here they gave up 37 points at home to a Panthers team that's been struggling offensively, and hasn't scored that many points on the road since 2012. Just an ugly effort on the part of their defense.

Split Picks: (APR 1-2, SRS 1-2, Line 2-1)

Patriots (Line) @ Bills (APR, SRS)
No prizes for guessing that the Bills' 2-0 start was a big mirage, or that Kyle Orton wasn't going to carry this team to glory. The Bills were actually in this for much of the game, but too many turnovers on offense, and an inability of the defense to get stops in the second half doomed the Bills to their fate.
Bears (APR, SRS) @ Falcons (Line)
And didn't the Falcons used to have an offense? They only had one drive go more than 33 yards in this game, and join the Jets as the only teams not to score at least 20 points on the Bears this fall. It's starting to look like another long, ugly season for the Falcons.
Giants (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)
That was an amazingly bad performance by the Giants in this game. They didn't have a drive go longer than 18 yards until deep into garbage time.
Meanwhile, it seems kind of weird to say after a 27-0 curb stomping of a divisional opponent, but the Eagles offense didn't really seem that amazing in this game. They really only had 3 sustained drives, and Nick Foles threw a couple more interceptions. In spite of this dominating victory, I'm going to wait a while before pronouncing the Eagles offensive troubles cured.

Totals

Another nice week for everybody, thanks to another solid round of unanimous picks. If only Mike Nugent had made that field goal...

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 11- 3-1 46-26-164.6%
SRS 11- 3-1 43-29-160.4%
Line 12- 2-1 49-23-168.8%

NFL Week 6 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Broncos1.1321
(LW × 0.9561)
4-1Won by 14
@ Jets
2 (↑1)Cardinals1.0245
(LW × 0.9402)
4-1Won by 10
vs Washington
3 (↑2)Colts1.0109
(LW × 1.0202)
4-2Won by 5
@ Texans
4 (↑5)Cowboys1.0026
(LW × 1.0500)
5-1Won by 7
@ Seahawks
5 (↓1)Chargers1.0016
(LW × 0.9234)
5-1Won by 3
@ Raiders
6 (↓4)Seahawks1.0009
(LW × 0.9030)
3-2Lost by 7
vs Cowboys
7 (↑1)Ravens0.9817
(LW × 1.0208)
4-2Won by 31
@ Buccaneers
8 (↑2)49ers0.9743
(LW × 1.0357)
4-2Won by 14
@ Rams
9 (↓3)Bengals0.9605
(LW × 0.9770)
3-1-1Tied
vs Panthers
10 (↑6)Eagles0.9596
(LW × 1.0456)
5-1Won by 27
vs Giants
11 (↑6)Patriots0.9533
(LW × 1.0721)
4-2Won by 15
@ Bills
12 (↑1)Chiefs0.9442
(LW × 1.0119)
2-3Bye
13 (↑1)Lions0.9343
(LW × 1.0039)
4-2Won by 14
@ Vikings
14 (↓3)Packers0.9337
(LW × 0.9926)
4-2Won by 3
@ Dolphins
15 (-)Texans0.9117
(LW × 0.9846)
3-3Lost by 5
vs Colts
16 (↑2)Browns0.9035
(LW × 1.0407)
3-2Won by 21
vs Steelers
17 (↓10)Bills0.8969
(LW × 0.9239)
3-3Lost by 15
vs Patriots
18 (↑2)Bears0.8819
(LW × 1.0352)
3-3Won by 14
@ Falcons
19 (↓7)Giants0.8721
(LW × 0.9312)
3-3Lost by 27
@ Eagles
20 (↑1)Panthers0.8672
(LW × 1.0228)
3-2-1Tied
@ Bengals
21 (↓2)Steelers0.8319
(LW × 0.9707)
3-3Lost by 21
@ Browns
22 (-)Dolphins0.8297
(LW × 1.0097)
2-3Lost by 3
vs Packers
23 (↑2)Titans0.8083
(LW × 1.0038)
2-4Won by 2
vs Jaguars
24 (↓1)Saints0.7967
(LW × 0.9838)
2-3Bye
25 (↑1)Washington0.7961
(LW × 0.9957)
1-5Lost by 10
@ Cardinals
26 (↑1)Vikings0.7478
(LW × 0.9482)
2-4Lost by 14
vs Lions
27 (↓3)Falcons0.7413
(LW × 0.9171)
2-4Lost by 14
vs Bears
28 (↑2)Jets0.7394
(LW × 1.0102)
1-5Lost by 14
vs Broncos
29 (↓1)Rams0.7381
(LW × 0.9738)
1-4Lost by 14
vs 49ers
30 (↓1)Buccaneers0.7075
(LW × 0.9545)
1-5Lost by 31
vs Ravens
31 (↑1)Raiders0.7010
(LW × 1.0697)
0-5Lost by 3
vs Chargers
32 (↓1)Jaguars0.6890
(LW × 1.0165)
0-6Lost by 2
@ Titans

Comments:

  • We've now had a tie game for three seasons in a row (first time since 87-89) and a tie game prior to week 10 for the first time since week 5 of the 89 season. Clearly one of the consequences of the new overtime rules is we're going to see a lot more tie games.

  • I had the Seahawks pencilled in as the #1 seed in the NFC. I think it's time to get my eraser out.

  • The Dolphins really should've beat the Packers this week. They had plenty of chances to stop that final drive, including an opportunity to tackle Davante Adams inbounds on that fake spike play. Sometimes the difference in a game is just that one team knows how to win, and the other one doesn't.

  • I was thinking that the Chargers might actually be a good team with a solid defense. But giving up 4 touchdowns to Raiders' rookie QB Derek Carr doesn't do much to support that position.

  • The Cardinals' win over Washington was not very impressive, especially considering a +4 advantage in the turnover margin. Maybe it was partly because Carson Palmer still isn't back to full strength, but they sure seem an unlikely candidate to have one of the best records in the league.

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

NFL Week 6 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Chargers @
Raiders
Chargers
ρ=1.6551
Chargers*
δ=29.6
Chargers
-7
Broncos @
Jets
Broncos
ρ=1.6176
Broncos*
δ=26.1
Broncos
-9
Washington @
Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=1.3628
Cardinals
δ=14.2
Cardinals
-3½
Ravens @
Buccaneers
Ravens
ρ=1.2974
Ravens*
δ=25.2
Ravens
-3
49ers @
Rams
49ers
ρ=1.2412
49ers*
δ=19.2
49ers
-3
Jaguars @
Titans
Titans*
ρ=1.1881
Titans
δ=10.9
Titans
-6
Lions @
Vikings
Lions
ρ=1.1801
Lions*
δ=13.5
Lions
-2½
Cowboys @
Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.1609
Seahawks
δ=13.7
Seahawks
-8½
Panthers @
Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.1595
Bengals
δ=11.4
Bengals
-7
Packers @
Dolphins
Packers
ρ=1.1447
Packers*
δ=6.4
Packers
-3
Patriots @
Bills
Bills
ρ=1.0917
Bills
δ=4.4
Patriots
-3
Colts @
Texans
Colts
ρ=1.0700
Colts*
δ=7.4
Colts
-2½
Bears @
Falcons
Bears
ρ=1.0539
Bears*
δ=0.2
Falcons
-3
Giants @
Eagles
Giants
ρ=1.0205
Giants*
δ=6.2
Eagles
-2½
Steelers @
Browns
Browns*
ρ=1.0131
Browns
δ=2.6
Browns
-1

Bye: Chiefs, Saints

Comments:

  • Remember when the Cardinals had a decent starting quarterback and a solid backup? Yeah, good times. Now Carson Palmer is dealing with nerve issues in his arm, and Drew Stanton is recovering from a concussion. Which means the Cards might be starting 4th round rookie Logan Thomas, with some guy off the street (Dennis Dixon, maybe) backing him up.

  • Patriots @ Bills is a rare case of APR and SRS taking the home time and the Line taking the road team. I don't buy that one dominating win means it's gonna be all rainbows and unicorns for the Pats now, but the Bills (now featuring Kyle Orton) have been so bad for so long, I'm not sure they're the ones to give the Pats their third loss.

  • I might start to think Tony Romo has solved his interception throwing problems if he can get past the Seahawks defense without getting picked on some ill-adviced pass. But right now my gut tells me the Cowboys aren't as good as their 4-1 record, and they're gonna get clobbered Sunday.

  • The Browns are unanimously picked to beat the Steelers! A sign of the fact that the Browns do look better than they have in a long time, but also a sign that the Steelers look perhaps even worse than last season's 8-8 squad.

  • After a bumbling 0-2 start, the Giants have rattled off a trio of convincing wins (albeit against some lesser opponents). This week starts a very tough stretch for the Giants, where they'll face the Eagles, Cowboys, Colts, Seahawks, and 49ers. The Giants are going to have to play some solid football for this not to derail their playoff chances.

  • Bears @ Falcons is an interesting matchup. Both have been foundering, both have at least the potential to do better. The winner will be at 3-3 and have a chance to climb back into the playoff race, while the loser will be at 2-4, and already at the brink of elimination.

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

NFL Week 5 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-2)

Right:

Steelers @ Jaguars
Seahawks @ Washington
Vikings @ Packers
Rams @ Eagles
Buccaneers @ Saints
Jets @ Chargers
Falcons @ Giants
Texans @ Cowboys

Wrong:

Bills @ Lions
The Lions' (now ex-) field goal kicker missed three long field goals in this game, which does not make you popular in a game lost by 3 points. But the Lions' offense has to bear some blame too. They only had three drives longer than 31 yards, and never went for it on 4th down, in spite of knowing their kicker is struggling.
Bengals @ Patriots
What struck me in watching this game is how bad the Bengals' defense was. They rarely got any pressure on Brady, they missed tackles, they were out of position. They made it look very easy for the Patriots to drive for scores, which they did repeatedly.
I mentioned in the game picks it's not a good idea to underestimate Belichick and Brady, and this is why. Even now, they are capable of rising up and obliterating their opponent.

Split Picks: (APR 2-3, SRS 1-4, Line 4-1)

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Broncos (Line)
The Cardinals didn't look ready for this game on either side of the ball. The offense punted an astonishing 11 times, and the defense gave up big play after big play. Maybe the most surprising thing about this game is that it was close through three quarters.
Chiefs (SRS) @ 49ers (APR, Line)
On the one hand, the Chiefs' defense didn't have a great day, allowing the 49ers 6 drives of 43 yards or longer, all ending with a score. On the other hand, only one of those was a touchdown, so the Chiefs didn't need an offensive explosion to win the game. But they only managed 3 scoring drives, and their final three drives were all 19 yards or shorter.
Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Colts (Line)
Looking at the boxscore for this game, it was an ugly one for both teams. The Ravens had 3 turnovers, the Colts had 4. Both quarterbacks averaged under 7 yards a pass attempt. The Ravens gave up 4 sacks, the Colts gave up 83 penalty yards. Both teams had a long drive end without a score. In the end, the Colts were able to do a little more with their opportunities than the Ravens did with theirs.
Bears (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)
Browns (APR, SRS) @ Titans (Line)
This is why you don't take your foot off the gas, even when you're up 28-3 over the Browns in your own stadium. The Browns just kept chipping away at that lead, and the Titans just kept not extending it. Part of this was the Titans having to play Charlie Whitehurst, who just wasn't able to respond once the game started to get close again, and part was the fact that the Titans didn't go to a run-heavy offense when they had a chance to run out the clock.

Totals

Best week so far, thanks to a solid round of unanimous picks.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 10- 4 35-2360.3%
SRS 9- 5 32-2655.2%
Line 11- 3 37-2163.8%

Monday, October 6, 2014

NFL Week 5 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (↑4)Broncos1.1840
(LW × 1.1033)
3-1Won by 21
vs Cardinals
2 (↑2)Seahawks1.1085
(LW × 1.0049)
3-1Won by 10
@ Washington
3 (↓2)Cardinals1.0896
(LW × 0.9094)
3-1Lost by 21
@ Broncos
4 (↓1)Chargers1.0847
(LW × 0.9567)
4-1Won by 31
vs Jets
5 (↑3)Colts0.9909
(LW × 1.0394)
3-2Won by 7
vs Ravens
6 (↓4)Bengals0.9830
(LW × 0.8298)
3-1Lost by 26
@ Patriots
7 (↑6)Bills0.9708
(LW × 1.0382)
3-2Won by 3
@ Lions
8 (↓2)Ravens0.9618
(LW × 0.9357)
3-2Lost by 7
@ Colts
9 (-)Cowboys0.9548
(LW × 1.0024)
4-1Won by 3
vs Texans
10 (↓3)49ers0.9408
(LW × 0.9832)
3-2Won by 5
vs Chiefs
11 (↑3)Packers0.9406
(LW × 1.0321)
3-2Won by 32
vs Vikings
12 (↓2)Giants0.9365
(LW × 0.9920)
3-2Won by 10
vs Falcons
13 (↑3)Chiefs0.9331
(LW × 1.0606)
2-3Lost by 5
@ 49ers
14 (↓2)Lions0.9307
(LW × 0.9927)
3-2Lost by 3
vs Bills
15 (-)Texans0.9260
(LW × 1.0211)
3-2Lost by 3
@ Cowboys
16 (↓5)Eagles0.9177
(LW × 0.9742)
4-1Won by 6
vs Rams
17 (↑9)Patriots0.8892
(LW × 1.1527)
3-2Won by 26
vs Bengals
18 (-)Browns0.8682
(LW × 1.0030)
2-2Won by 1
@ Titans
19 (-)Steelers0.8570
(LW × 1.0063)
3-2Won by 8
@ Jaguars
20 (↓3)Bears0.8519
(LW × 0.9808)
2-3Lost by 7
@ Panthers
21 (↑1)Panthers0.8478
(LW × 1.0319)
3-2Won by 7
vs Bears
22 (↑5)Dolphins0.8217
(LW × 1.0754)
2-2Bye
23 (-)Saints0.8098
(LW × 0.9858)
2-3Won by 6
vs Buccaneers
24 (↓4)Falcons0.8083
(LW × 0.9554)
2-3Lost by 10
@ Giants
25 (↓4)Titans0.8053
(LW × 0.9604)
1-4Lost by 1
vs Browns
26 (↓2)Washington0.7995
(LW × 1.0072)
1-4Lost by 10
vs Seahawks
27 (↓2)Vikings0.7887
(LW × 0.9976)
2-3Lost by 32
@ Packers
28 (↑1)Rams0.7579
(LW × 1.0661)
1-3Lost by 6
@ Eagles
29 (↓1)Buccaneers0.7413
(LW × 1.0235)
1-4Lost by 6
@ Saints
30 (-)Jets0.7320
(LW × 1.0404)
1-4Lost by 31
@ Chargers
31 (-)Jaguars0.6778
(LW × 0.9868)
0-5Lost by 8
vs Steelers
32 (-)Raiders0.6554
(LW × 1.0692)
0-4Bye

Comments:

  • I'd say the top 6 or so seems about right, although I'd put the Cardinals lower, especially as long as Carson Palmer is out. As demonstrated Sunday, their offense just isn't enough against the top tier teams.

  • I really gotta wonder why the Vikings didn't try to run the ball more than they did Thursday night. The Packers have been giving up 4.6 yards a rushing attempt, and Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata seem like legitimate rushing threats.

    Instead the Vikings came out passing more than they ran (even when the game was 14-0). The way Eddie Lacy ran all over their defense, maybe a run-heavy game plan for the Vikings would've been doomed as well, but they might've had a chance to keep it close into the second half.

  • Another very unimpressive road win for the Seahawks, letting Washington hang around for almost the whole game. But as long as they get home field advantage, it may not matter that they're not very good on the road. Last February's Super Bowl showed they can be very good on a neutral field.

  • Is there anybody in the NFC that can legitimately challenge the Seahawks right now? Looking at last year's playoff teams, the 49ers, Saints, Panthers, and Eagles all seem to have dropped off at least somewhat.

    The Packers might have a chance if their offense can stay on track, but they're already 2 games behind the Seahawks (including the head-to-head tiebreaker) so the Packers might need to run the table to have a chance of finishing ahead of the Seahawks at this point.

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

NFL Week 5 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Jets @
Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.6116
Chargers
δ=20.3
Chargers
-6
Bengals @
Patriots
Bengals
ρ=1.5358
Bengals*
δ=29.1
Bengals
-1½
Seahawks @
Washington
Seahawks
ρ=1.3897
Seahawks*
δ=20.5
Seahawks
-7½
Rams @
Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.3251
Eagles
δ=15.8
Eagles
-7
Steelers @
Jaguars
Steelers
ρ=1.2399
Steelers*
δ=18.9
Steelers
-7
Vikings @
Packers
Packers*
ρ=1.1527
Packers
δ=4.1
Packers
-9
Buccaneers @
Saints
Saints
ρ=1.1343
Saints
δ=13.9
Saints
-10
Cardinals @
Broncos
Cardinals
ρ=1.1165
Cardinals*
δ=3.6
Broncos
-7
Falcons @
Giants
Giants
ρ=1.1158
Giants
δ=1.9
Giants
-4
Chiefs @
49ers
49ers*
ρ=1.0876
Chiefs
δ=1.1
49ers
-6½
Ravens @
Colts
Ravens
ρ=1.0783
Ravens*
δ=7.7
Colts
-3½
Bears @
Panthers
Bears
ρ=1.0570
Bears*
δ=3.2
Panthers
-2½
Texans @
Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.0503
Cowboys
δ=2.1
Cowboys
-4
Browns @
Titans
Browns
ρ=1.0323
Browns*
δ=6.8
Titans
-1½
Bills @
Lions
Lions
ρ=1.0026
Lions
δ=1.7
Lions
-7

Bye: Dolphins, Raiders

Comments:

  • 9 points seems like a lot for the Packers to cover, especially after their defense failed to force a single punt last Sunday, and the Vikings scored 41 points on the Falcons. Teddy Bridgewater and rookie RB Jerick McKinnon (135 yards last Sunday) are both questionable at this writing, so it could depend on how healthy the Vikings are at gametime.

  • The Patriots haven't been home underdogs very many times in the Tom Brady era. (But they haven't lost by 27 points many times either.) If the Pats lose this game... well, it's still early, and I don't want to underestimate Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but it sure won't be a good sign of happy times next January.

  • Cardinals @ Broncos is maybe the most interesting game this week. It's a chance for one of the best defenses to go up against one of the best offenses. The winner will have a legitimate spot at the top of the power rankings, and the loser (especially if it's the Broncos) will have some questions that need to be answered.

  • Everybody likes the Cowboys this week, but I feel like Tony Romo is a good pass rush away from another disastrous game. If JJ Watt and the Texans' defense can bring the heat, this is a very winnable game for them.

  • The 49ers sure didn't look good Sunday, and almost certainly would've lost if the Eagles had more than one sustained drive, or been able to punch it in when they had first and goal at the 6.

    If the Chiefs defense can have another game like they did Monday night, they could easily give the 49ers their third loss of the season.

  • Since their week 1 win over the Chiefs the Titans have looked horrible, turning over the ball on offense, and unable to buy a stop on defense. Meanwhile, the Browns have looked like they are at least better than last year, with all three of their games so far coming right down to the end. Whether the Titans field an injured Jake Locker or an ineffective Charlie Whitehurst, this is a game the Browns can win, and should if they really have improved over last year.