NFL Super Bowl Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Patriots (SRS, Line) vs. Seahawks (APR)

As you know if you read my game picks post, I was leaning towards the Patriots winning this game. But the Seahawks stayed in this, and came a lot closer to winning than I really expected.

Especially with close games like this that are back and forth in the 4th quarter and come down to the last seconds of the game, I feel like I'm picking nits to talk about why one team won and the other lost, but there are a couple things worth looking at.

As mentioned in the power rankings comments, the Seahawks had a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter. If their defense gets one more stop, (or even just holds once for a field goal), they win. Instead they allowed the Patriots two long drives ending with touchdowns that erased their 10 point lead, and left them in a 4 point hole. Giving up two touchdowns was especially painful, because it meant their final drive was touchdown or bust.

The Seahawks offense established that 10 point lead with 5 minutes to play in the third quarter, and they had the ball three times before that final drive. If they score one more touchdown, they win. Instead, they punted three times, and had their final drive end with a turnover.

In the end, I think one of the big problems for the Seahawks was their offense was just too boom-or-bust, too dependent on the big play. In a situation like they had at the end of this game, where they needed a more methodical approach using high percentage plays, they just didn't seem to know how to do it, and it ended up costing them a win.

That's it for the regularly scheduled posts for the 2014 season. I'm planning to do the usual Pythagorean wrap up post, and then that will likely be it until July. Have a good offseason!

Totals

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	0	-	1			7	-	4		63.6%
SRS	1	-	0			9	-	2		81.8%
Line	1	-	0			9	-	2		81.8%

NFL Championship Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Packers @ Seahawks (SRS, APR, Line)

It seemed like almost everyhing that went wrong for the Packers this season was on display in this game. They settled for field goals after driving into the red zone. They had ugly break downs on special teams. And (for the Seahawks' last three drives) the defense didn't look like they could stop anything.

Just a really frustrating experience, to be gifted a game where the Seahawks, for 57 minutes of game time, played like they didn't have any business with the top seed in the NFC. And the frustrating thing is, everything the Seahawks needed to go their way happened. If the Packers got a touchdown on either one of their early drives, they win. If the Packers recover the onside kick, they win. If the Packers tip away the two point conversion, they win. If the Packers get a touchdown on their last drive, they win.

But the Seahawks got all those breaks to go their way, and to their credit, they managed to put together three very good drives, all ending with touchdowns, right when they desperately needed needed them, and it won them the game.

Colts @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)

This game, on the other hand, went pretty much as expected. Much like in their regular season meeting, the Patriots offense didn't have much trouble scoring repeatedly on the Colts defense.

Somehow Andrew Luck and the Colts managed to keep it to a relatively close 10 point differential at halftime, but an ineffective passing game, and too few attempts at running the ball meant that the Patriots had a pretty easy time scoring three unanswered touchdowns in the third quarter, which put the game well out of reach of the Colts.

Totals

Well, at least a clean sweep for picks this week.

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	2	-	0			7	-	3		70%
SRS	2	-	0			8	-	2		80%
Line	2	-	0			8	-	2		80%

NFL Divisional Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Ravens @ Patriots (SRS, APR, Line)

The Ravens' offense certainly did their part in this game, putting up 31 points on the Patriots. But the Ravens' defense allowed the Patriots five sustained drives (the shortest was 67 yards), all ending with touchdowns.

Joe Flacco may actually be maturing into a better quarterback than he was in the first years of his career, but when it takes 36 points to win a game, even the best quarterbacks can be in a toss-up situation.

Panthers @ Seahawks (APR, SRS, Line)

The Seahawks won this pretty easily, as they were widely expected to. Maybe the most surprising thing about this game is that the Panthers kept it within a single score into the 4th quarter, and if Cam Newton had played a better game, the Panthers might have had a chance for an upset.

Cowboys @ Packers (APR, SRS, Line)

After their initial touchdown drive, the Packers really seemed to struggle in this game, producing drives that ended in a lost fumble, two punts, and two field goals. I really thought this game was all but over when the Cowboys went up 21-13 late in the 3rd quarter.

But after that, the Packers' offense finally got on a roll, posting a couple of long touchdown drives, and a final drive to finish off the final 4:06 of game clock.

The Cowboys seemed to pursue a ball control strategy similar to what the Bills did in their win over the Packers in week 15. The problem with this strategy is it requires a defense that can shut the Packers offense down for an entire game, and (as the Cowboys found out) blows up if you can't.

It should also be noted that the Dez Bryant catch reversal controversy obscured a rather unfortunate play call by the Cowboys. That play came on 4th and 2. The Cowboys elected to throw what has to be a pretty low percentage deep ball 30 yards down field. But why do that when they could've handed off to DeMarco Murray? Murray had been shredding the Packers' defense all game, and would've almost certainly resulted in a conversion and a fresh set of downs.

Colts @ Broncos (APR, SRS, Line)

Just an ugly day for the Broncos' passing offense. One of the lowest completion rates (57%) and yards per attempt (4.58) since Manning went to Denver.

The Broncos' defense didn't have a good day either, giving up several long drives, and largely letting the Colts offense control the tempo of the game. The Broncos just didn't look anything like the team that won the AFC's second seed.

Added: It's now being reported that Peyton Manning was playing with a torn quad, which would explain a lot about how this game played out.

Totals

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	3	-	1			5	-	3		62.5%
SRS	3	-	1			6	-	2		75%
Line	3	-	1			6	-	2		75%

NFL Wild Card Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)

What an awful performance by Ryan Lindley. I don't think I've seen a worse performance by a quarterback in the playoffs. Even Joe Webb a couple years ago had a better game.

The Panthers played like you'd expect a 7-9-1 team to play: some ugly turnovers, a lot of drives that ended without a score, and a general failure to put away a weak opponent until late in the game.

Ravens (SRS) @ Steelers (APR, Line)

I wrote in the game picks that the Ravens could make a run if their defense got on a roll. They certainly took the first step in this game, holding the Steelers to just three field goals and a touchdown, and forcing three turnovers at the end of the game.

Steelers put up a lot of yards on the Ravens' defense, but too many of their drives ended in field goals, punts, and turnovers. They were playing catch up on the score board for most of the game, and the Ravens were able to pull away in the second half.

Bengals @ Colts (APR, SRS, Line)

The least surprising of this week's games. Without their two biggest playmakers on offense (AJ Green and Jermain Gresham) the Bengals were in deep trouble when the game started. Perhaps the biggest surprise was that they kept the game close through halftime.

Lions @ Cowboys (APR, SRS, Line)

That was probably the ugliest job of officiating since the Fail Mary game. The Lions really got a bad deal there. But they also played a pretty poor second half, managing just one field goal from 6 possessions, and leaving the door open for a bad call to decide the game for them. (It should also be noted a DPI call would not have won the game for them, it just would've helped keep their drive going.)

The Cowboys, for their part, didn't look great either. They only managed to score 14 points through three quarters, Romo was sacked 6 times, and a lot of his passes looked poorly thrown and off target. The offense may get most of the attention, but the defense holding the Lions to just a field goal in the second half was a key factor in giving them the chance to win this game.

Totals

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	2	-	2			2	-	2		50%
SRS	3	-	1			3	-	1		75%
Line	3	-	1			3	-	1		75%

NFL Week 17 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (11-3)

Right:

Colts @ Titans
Cowboys @ Washington
Saints @ Buccaneers
Raiders @ Broncos
Jaguars @ Texans
Rams @ Seahawks
Browns @ Ravens
Bears @ Vikings
Chargers @ Chiefs
Lions @ Packers
Bengals @ Steelers

Wrong:

Bills @ Patriots

The Pats mostly rested their starters in this game (although for reasons unexplained Tom Brady played in the first half). The Bills clinch their first winning season since 2004, when Drew Bledsoe played his last season for them.

Jets @ Dolphins

Geno Smith had the best game of his career, throwing three touchdown passes and catching the Dolphins on a very bad day defensively. The Dolphins were 1-7 when giving up more than 20 points this season.

Panthers @ Falcons

The Falcons just couldn't get anything going on offense in this game. Their longest drive until well into garbage time was 38 yards. That, along with a couple interceptions (both returned for touchdowns) dug a hole the Falcons had no way out of.

Split Picks: (APR 1-1, SRS 1-1, Line 1-1)

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)

The Cardinals surprisingly made a game of this, but Lindley's 3 interceptions was just more than the Cardinals were able to overcome.

Eagles (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)

Actually a relatively close game (and equal on turnovers). But Eli Manning threw incomplete too many times, the Giants only converted on 1 of 3 trips in the red zone, had 106 penalty yards, and in the end, it all added up to a loss for Big Blue.

Totals

A nice round of picks to end the regular season on.

	This Week					This Season					%
APR	12	-	4			159	-	80	-	1	66.5%
SRS	12	-	4			157	-	82	-	1	65.6%
Line	12	-	4			166	-	72	-	1	69.8%

NFL Week 16 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (6-6)

Right:

Patriots @ Jets
Packers @ Buccaneers
Lions @ Bears
Seahawks @ Cardinals
Titans @ Jaguars
Vikings @ Dolphins

Wrong:

Falcons @ Saints

Somehow, the Saints just couldn't move the ball against what has been a pretty bad Falcons defense. The Saints had three drives longer than 31 yards, two of which ended with a lost fumble.

Giants @ Rams

Odell Beckham is an amazing player, and when the Giants' don't turn the ball over, they can still be a dangerous team. This is the first time since the final week of the 2012 season that the Giants' haven't turned the ball over.

Bills @ Raiders

Trap game? Let down? Whatever you call it, a week after holding the Packers to just 13 points, the Bills defense gave up 26 points to the Raiders who have scored more than that just once this season. Meanwhile the Bills could only rush for a season-low 13 yards, and Kyle Orton is just not the kind of quarterback that can win without support from his defense and running game, even against the likes of the Raiders.

Eagles @ Washington

I'm not sure there's anything to say here besides what I noted in the power rankings, that the Eagles have mostly lost when they don't score at least 30 points. Counting this game, Washington has only made it to 27 points four times this season.

Ravens @ Texans

The Texans defense came to play in this game, holding the Ravens to 33 yards rushing, intercepting Joe Flacco 3 times, and holding him under 200 yards passing on 50(!) attempts. When the Texans' defense plays like that, Case Keenum is all they need for a quarterback.

Broncos @ Bengals

Besides Peyton Manning's struggles, the Broncos defense gave up 207 yards rushing (mostly to Jeremy Hill) and 206 kick and punt return yards. Andy Dalton didn't look like much in this game, but with that kind of support, he didn't need to.

Split Picks: (APR 1-3, SRS 1-3, Line 3-1)

Chargers (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)

Either way this game went, you could blame turnovers and breakdowns on defense. As much as anything, the 49ers' season-long inability to score in the second half opened the door for the Chargers to come back and win this game.

Chiefs (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)

The Steelers' defense had perhaps their best game of the season, holding the Chiefs to just 12 points. The Chiefs, for their part, persued an odd strategy of settling for field goals in spite of the fact they were playing from behind for most of the game. As I've noted before, the Chiefs don't have a quick strike defense, so especially when they're playing behind, they really need to get touchdowns to have a chance.

Browns (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)

Johnny Manziel looked every bit the green rookie in this game. When Brian Hoyer came in in relief, the Browns were down a touchdown. He was better than Manziel, but not by nearly enough, especially with only 84 rushing yards in support (and 19 of them coming from Hoyer himself).

Colts (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)

If there's anything that went right for the Colts in this game, I didn't see it. Their first have drives result in a turnover on downs, three punts, and a red zone interception. Meanwhile, the Cowboys scored touchdowns on their first four possessions, and the game was pretty much out of reach by halftime.

Totals

A real clunker of a week, especially for the algorithms.

	This Week					This Season					%
APR	7	-	9			147	-	76	-	1	65.9%
SRS	7	-	9			145	-	78	-	1	65.0%
Line	9	-	7			154	-	68	-	1	69.4%

NFL Week 15 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (12-2)

Right:

Steelers @ Falcons
Bengals @ Browns
Broncos @ Chargers
Jets @ Titans
Jaguars @ Ravens
Raiders @ Chiefs
Dolphins @ Patriots
Texans @ Colts
Washington @ Giants
Buccaneers @ Panthers
Vikings @ Lions
49ers @ Seahawks

Wrong:

Cowboys @ Eagles

Some of the biggest flaws of the Eagles were on display in this game: they turn the ball over a lot. Their defense isn't very good against the pass. And when their offense isn't scoring, their fast paced style is more of a liability than an asset.

And while the Cowboys didn't play the most amazing game either, they only turned the ball over once, and were able to take advantage when the Eagles gave them short fields.

Packers @ Bills

What an ugly game for the Packers' offense. The Bills' defense deserves some credit, but this is the first time Rodgers has been held under a 44% completion rate since he took over from Favre.

The Packers' defense played well, and the running game was effective. But turnovers, too many incomplete passes, botched punt coverage, and a final fumble that resulted in a safety added up more than they were able to overcome. Perhaps the most surprising thing about this game is the Packers had a chance to win late, in spite of all the mistakes they made.

Split Picks: (APR 1-1, SRS 2-0, Line 2-0)

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Rams (Line)

Rumors of the demise of the Cardinals' defense are apparently greatly exaggerated. They absolutely shut down the Rams' offense (which, okay, is maybe not the biggest test in the world). But they only allowed the Rams' into the red zone twice, holding them to field goals each time.

And while the Cardinals' offense didn't light up the scoreboard either, they did manage to put the game out of reach of the Rams' struggling offense.

Saints (SRS, Line) @ Bears (APR)

Wow, the Bears seem like a broken team at this point. A defense that struggles to stop anybody and a desultory offense is a really bad combination. I wonder if they'll win another game this year?

Totals

Another very nice week of picks, and an unusual case of SRS gaining a spot on APR.

	This Week					This Season					%
APR	13	-	3			140	-	67	-	1	67.6%
SRS	14	-	2			138	-	69	-	1	66.6%
Line	14	-	2			146	-	61	-	1	70.4%

NFL Week 14 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (10-4)

Right:

Cowboys @ Bears
Rams @ Washington
Texans @ Jaguars
Giants @ Titans
Colts @ Browns
Patriots @ Chargers
Buccaneers @ Lions
Jets @ Vikings
Bills @ Broncos
Facons @ Packers

Wrong:

Panthers @ Saints

This was the bad Saints playing in this game. On offense, their longest drive was just 34 yards until well into garbage time. On defense, they were mostly unable to stop a Panthers' offense that hadn't scored more than 21 points in a game since facing the Bengals two months ago. The Saints have some talented players, but when they have an off game, they can really stink up the joint.

Ravens @ Dolphins

The Ravens stopped the Dolphins from running. And the Dolphins' passing game isn't enough to sustain many drives all by itself, and so the Dolphins were only able to score 13 points in this game. And while the Dolphins' defense has played well this season, they need more help than 13 points from their offense to get a win against a team that can move the ball like the Ravens.

Steelers @ Bengals

As bad as this looks for the Bengals, most of the damage came on just two plays. The Bengals lost a fumble that the Steelers turned into a touchdown. The Steelers subsequent drive consisted of one 94 yard touchdown pass to rookie WR Martavis Bryant. And what had been a close game through three quarters turned into a blow-out almost in the blink of an eye.

49ers @ Raiders

The 49ers defense had some issues in this game, giving up three long drives for touchdowns. But to my eye, the real problem in this game was the 49ers offense. A couple turnovers, three field goal tries (one missed) and a touchdown aren't gonna win many games. And that's demonostrated in the 49ers record this season. They're 2-6 when they don't score at least 22 points (it's also worth noting those two wins came in close games against bad NFC East opponents).

Split Picks: (APR 1-1, SRS 1-1, Line 1-1)

Seahawks (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)

The Eagles' offense just wasn't able to move the ball down the field. Apart from their second touchdown, their longest drive went just 25 yards.

Chiefs (APR, SRS) @ Cardinals (Line)

I thought the Cardinals were in deep trouble after Jamaal Charles scored his second touchdown of the day to give the Chiefs an 8 point lead. But the Cardinals' defense played a lot better in this game, shutting the Chiefs out in the second half (thanks in part to a controversial fumble ruling) while putting together a couple scoring drives that put them in the lead.

Totals

	This Week					This Season					%
APR	11	-	5			127	-	64	-	1	66.4%
SRS	11	-	5			124	-	67	-	1	64.8%
Line	11	-	5			132	-	59	-	1	69.0%

NFL Week 13 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (9-4)

Right:

Bengals @ Buccaneers
Broncos @ Chiefs
Dolphins @ Jets
Bears @ Lions
Titans @ Texans
Raiders @ Rams
Panthers @ Vikings
Browns @ Bills
Washington @ Colts

Wrong:

Saints @ Steelers

Drew Brees had his best game of the season, passing for 257 yards and 5 touchdowns, with Mark Ingram contributing 122 yards on the ground. The Steelers did manage something of a late rally, but it's not as close as the final score makes it look, as their final touchdown came on the last play of the game.

Chargers @ Ravens

I watched the end of this game, and I'm still not totally sure what happened. Into the 4th quarter, the Ravens' defense had held the Chargers to just 13 points, putting them pretty solidly in control of the game. Then... well then maybe the Ravens had an injury on defense or something that I missed? Because then the Chargers put together three sustained drives, all for touchdowns, with the last providing the game winning points. The Ravens are now 2-5 when they give up 20 or more points.

Giants @ Jaguars

Two lost fumbles returned for touchdowns and a second half where only one drive went longer than 21 yards is a bad, bad combination, even against a weak team like the Jaguars.

Cardinals @ Falcons

This was a breakdown of the Cardinals' defense. They have pretty much played all their games in the "keep it close and win it in the 4th quarter" cliche style. But without Carson Palmer, without Larry FItzgerald, and without any support from the running game, this game was lost when the Falcons established a 17 point advantage in the first quarter.

Split Picks: (APR 2-1, SRS 2-1, Line 1-2)

Eagles (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)

The Cowboys didn't do themselves any favors on offense, producing just one drive longer than 35 yards until well into garbage time. But a more glaring problem was the Cowboys' defense, which allowed the Eagles to score on 7 of their first 9 drives. They just aren't the kind of team that can give up that many scores and stay in the game.

Seahawks (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)

The 49ers just had a miserable game on offense. Colin Kaepernick barely completed half of his passes, with the longest one going for just 16 yards. The rushing game was stuffed, with a team total of 68 yards. They only managed one drive longer than 33 yards.

Patriots (APR, SRS) @ Packers (Line)

A close game between a couple very good teams, that came down to the last couple minutes. I was half expecting the Patriots to run away with this one, so I gotta give a lot of credit to the Packers' defense for at least slowing down Rob Gronkowski and LeGarrette Blount.

The Pats made a few mistakes (letting the Packers get out to a 13-0 lead, that Jordy Nelson TD at the first half, and the missed FG at the end of the game). It wasn't much, but with the Packers playing as well as they were, it was enough.

Totals

Another decent week for everybody, and once again a couple road dog wins means the algorithms pick up another game on the Line.

	This Week					This Season					%
APR	11	-	5			115	-	57	-	1	67.2%
SRS	11	-	5			112	-	60	-	1	65.4%
Line	10	-	6			118	-	54	-	1	68.9%

NFL Week 12 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (10-2)

Right:

Packers @ Vikings
Cowboys @ Giants
Lions @ Patriots
Titans @ Eagles
Jaguars @ Colts
Buccaneers @ Bears
Rams @ Chargers
Washington @ 49ers
Dolphins @ Broncos
Jets "@" Bills

Wrong:

Chiefs @ Raiders

The Chiefs had a lot of problems in this game, but there's a couple things that really stand out to me. First, on their final scoring drive, they got inside the Raiders' 10 yard line, but couldn't punch it in for a touchdown, instead settling for a field goal and a slim 3 point lead.

The second thing was, after that, the Chiefs' defense desperately needed to get a stop. Instead the Raiders drove 80 yards, and used over 9 minutes of game time to score the go-ahead touchdown, and left the Chiefs 95 seconds to respond. The Chiefs are really not a quick-strike defense, especially with no timeouts left, and they ran out of time before they could respond.

Bengals @ Texans

The Bengals certainly didn't have an amazing day on offense in this game. They had three drives longer than 37 yards, resulting in a touchdown, a field goal, and a turnover on downs.

So the door was certainly open for the Texans to take this one. But Ryan Mallett was not productive passing (throwing for just 189 yards on 45 attempts) and the Texans' running game was unable to make up the difference. The result was two field goals, a punt, and a turnover on downs for the Texans' four best drives.

Split Picks: (APR 2-1, SRS 2-1, Line 1-2)

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Seahawks (Line)

The Cardinals' defense really did their job in this game, holding the Seahawks to just 4 field goals until late in the third quarter. If the offense had been even moderately productive, they could've won this game. But the Cardinals' offense only crossed midfield three times, producing a field goal, a missed field goal, and a punt. That's just not gonna win any games. (Unless, I suppose, the field is a muddy mess.)

Browns (APR, SRS) @ Falcons (Line)

The Browns really tried to give this game to the Falcons, but they just wouldn't take it. Brian Hoyer threw a couple late interceptions, but the Falcons were only able to get one field goal out of them. Meanwhile the Falcons couldn't much run the ball, and left the door open for the Browns to drive for a winning field goal at the end of the game.

Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Saints (Line)

After having goal to go early, the Saints couldn't punch the ball in for a touchdown, they couldn't stop the Ravens' running game, and Drew Brees threw his third pick six of the season. All in all you gotta wonder what ever happened to the Saints team people thought were gonna contend for the Super Bowl this year.

Totals

A nice week of picks all around, and thanks to a couple road dog wins, the algorithms pick up a game on the Line.

	This Week					This Season					%
APR	12	-	3			104	-	52	-	1	66.6%
SRS	12	-	3			101	-	55	-	1	64.6%
Line	11	-	4			108	-	48	-	1	69.1%

NFL Week 11 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (6-3)

Right:

49ers @ Giants
Steelers @ Titans
Bills @ Dolphins
Seahawks @ Chiefs
Raiders @ Chargers
Lions @ Cardinals

Wrong:

Bengals @ Saints

On defense, the Saints just couldn't stop the run, giving up 186 yards on the ground (2nd most all season, and most in a home game). Andy Dalton only threw 22 times, but when he did, he was very effective, posting 220 yards and 3 touchdowns. Pretty much a complete turnaround from his week 10 performance.

On the other side of the ball, the Bengals' defense was somehow able to contain the Saints offense, holding Drew Brees to under 6 yards per passing attempt, and Mark Ingram to under 3 yards a carry. Somehow the Saints were able to sustain 4 relatively long drives, but they chewed up 24 minutes of game time, and only produced 10 points on the scoreboard. It wasn't nearly enough to keep up with the Bengals.

Buccaneers @ Washington

Apparently somebody didn't tell Washington's defense that they should cover Mike Evans, who had 209 yards of the Bucs' 288 yards passing. Couple that with 3 turnovers and 6 sacks, and Washington really never had a chance.

Broncos @ Rams

The Broncos were absolutely stymied by the Rams' defense. CJ Anderson only ran for 29 yards, and while Peyton Manning had 389 yards passing, they were mostly spread out among too many drives to put points on the board.

The Rams didn't have an amazing day on offense either, but they did get into the end zone early, and that along with 5 field goals eventually put the game out of reach.

Split Picks: (APR 4-1, SRS 3-2, Line 2-3)

Thanks to win by three road dogs, a surprisingly bad week of split picks for the Line.

Falcons (SRS) @ Panthers (APR, Line)

A close game between a couple bad teams. The Panthers had one more turnover and two missed field goals, which as much as anything else was the difference in the game.

Texans (APR, SRS) @ Browns (Line)

Like their earlier game against the Jaguars, the Browns' offense just seemed to dry up in this game. For whatever reason, they started Isaiah Crowell at RB, which appears to be a mistake, as he only had 61 yards on 14 carries (and most of that came on one play). Brian Hoyer couldn't pick up the slack. While he had 330 passing yards, he also threw incomplete 30 times, the most single-game incompletions of any team this season.

Patriots (APR, SRS) @ Colts (Line)

The Colts have a bad defense. They are now 0-4 when they give up more than 28 points. The Colts are the only team to give up more than 28 points in at least 4 games and have a winning record (although the 5-5 Texans are close).

Vikings (SRS) @ Bears (APR, Line)

The Bears managed to get their running game back on track, rushing for 138 total yards. Their defense mostly managed to shut down the Vikings (holding them to just 4 drives longer than 16 yards) and so Jay Cutler's 3 touchdown passes were enough to give the Bears their first home win of the season.

Eagles (APR, SRS) @ Packers (Line)

The Eagles have shown a lot of problems this season, and after this game, you can add their pass defense to the list. The Packers put together four long first-half drives, mostly passing the ball, scoring three touchdowns and a field goal. Add in a rare (for the Packers anyway) punt return touchdown, and this game was pretty well over at halftime.

Totals

	This Week					This Season					%
APR	10	-	4			92	-	49	-	1	65.1%
SRS	9	-	5			89	-	52	-	1	63.0%
Line	8	-	6			97	-	44	-	1	68.7%

NFL Week 10 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (9-2)

Right:

Cowboys @ Jaguars
Falcons @ Buccaneers
Chiefs @ Bills
Broncos @ Raiders
Titans @ Ravens
Giants @ Seahawks
Rams @ Cardinals
Bears @ Packers
Panthers @ Eagles

Wrong:

Browns @ Bengals

Another game where the Bengals' offense just disappeared. Andy Dalton had a miserable night passing, with three interceptions and a single-digit passer rating. The Browns weren't amazing, but it doesn't take much to win when your opponent is imploding like that.

Steelers @ Jets

The Steelers' offense goes back into hibernation. I'm not sure what else to say about this one, other than the fact the Steelers are now 1-4 when they don't score at least 30 points. The lone win in there came against the lowly Jaguars (and was a 1-point game until Blake Bortles threw a pick 6 in the 4th quarter).

Split Picks: (APR 1-1, SRS 1-1, Line 1-1)

Dolphins (APR, SRS) @ Lions (Line)

Maybe all there is to say about this game is that the Dolphins have a problem closing out close games. Last week's blow out win over the Chargers to the contrary, they don't have a dominating offense, and when they manage to establish a late lead, they really need their defense to get stops when it matters most. And so far, that really hasn't happened.

49ers (APR, SRS) @ Saints (Line)

A near thing for the Saints, and a good job of their defense holding the 49ers to 3 points in the second half. But they really need more than 24 points from their offense to win games, especially at home.

Meanwhile, the 49ers get a much needed win, in spite of some ongoing problems. They gave up 4 more sacks (as noted in last week's pick results, this is an ongoing problem for them). Another issue in evidence this week, they now have six games where they haven't scored more than 7 points in the second half. Including this game, they are 2-4 when that happens.

Totals

A nice round of picks for everybody this week.

	This Week					This Season					%
APR	10	-	3			82	-	45	-	1	64.5%
SRS	10	-	3			80	-	47	-	1	62.9%
Line	10	-	3			89	-	38	-	1	70.5%

NFL Week 8 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-2)

Right:

Lions @ Falcons
Dolphins @ Jaguars
Seahawks @ Panthers
Texans @ Titans
Chargers @ Broncos
Rams @ Chiefs
Bears @ Patriots
Raiders @ Browns

Wrong:

Washington @ Cowboys

This loss has to go on the Cowboys offense, which was struggling even before Romo got hurt. They had two more turnovers, but I think the game was really lost on the 6 drives that ended on a punt, turnover on downs, or the first half expiring. The Cowboys just need to score more than 17 points to win games.

Colts @ Steelers

This was just a massive breakdown in the Colts' defense. The Steelers scored touchdowns on 5 of their first 6 drives, all 76 yards or longer. In spite of the Steelers having a not-so-dominating second half, that was enough to put the game out of reach for the Colts.

Split Picks: (APR 3-2, SRS 2-3, Line 3-2)

Packers (APR, SRS) @ Saints (Line)

Part of this was the Packers failing to get into the end zone early, aided by some really idiotic playcalling. I mean, when you've got Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Eddie Lacy, and Davante Adams in your receiving corp, you don't need Julius Peppers on the field in a goal to go situation.

Part of this was the defense once again failing to get a punt, or even slow down the Saints in the second half. And once Aaron Rodgers tweaked his hamstring, and the Packers stopped scoring on every drive, this game was pretty much over.

Bills (APR, SRS) @ Jets (Line)

The Bills may not be a great team, but the Jets are awful. This was just a flat mistake for the Line to take them here.

Vikings (APR, SRS) @ Buccaneers (Line)

A close game featuring a couple bad teams. A couple notable differences for the Vikings. For the first time since their late September blow out win over the Falcons, they scored more than 16 points, and they didn't turn the ball over. It wasn't by any means a dominating performance, but it was enough to get a road win over a weak opponent.

Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Bengals (Line)

Is there any figuring the Bengals? Given their three games prior to this one, they looked doomed to a long ugly slide at least until they could get AJ Green Back. Instead they got some solid receiving production from Mohamet Sanu, okay results from their running back by committee approach, and decent production from their defense, that held their opponent under 27 points for the first time since September. In all, it was enough to stop the Ravens, who before this week looked like they might run away with the AFC North.

Eagles (SRS) @ Cardinals (APR, Line)

Watching this game, it seemed like the Eagles were mostly the better team on offense. But 6 punts and 3 turnovers meant they had a lot of drives that didn't put any points on the board, and gave the Cardinals opportunity to control the game, which they did.

Totals

	This Week					This Season					%
APR	11	-	5			64	-	37	-	1	63.2%
SRS	10	-	6			62	-	39	-	1	61.3%
Line	11	-	5			69	-	32	-	1	68.1%

NFL Week 6 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (10-1-1)

Right:

Colts @ Texans
Chargers @ Raiders
Broncos @ Jets
Ravens @ Buccaneers
Lions @ Vikings
Packers @ Dolphins
49ers @ Rams
Washington @ Cardinals
Jaguars @ Titans
Steelers @ Browns

Wrong:

Cowboys @ Seahawks

This has to be the ugliest game the Seahawks have played in a long time. The defense couldn't get off the field (the Cowboys had 4 drives of 71+ yards and held the ball for over 37 minutes of game time) and the offense couldn't get anything started, posting just one drive longer than 24 yards. If the Seahawks hadn't had a touchdown on a blocked punt, this game would've been even uglier for the Seahawks than it was.

Push:

Panthers @ Bengals

Mike Nugent is the easy scapegoat here, but mostly what I'm thinking in looking at this game is, didn't the Bengals used to have a defense? Giving up 43 points to the Patriots on the road is one thing, but here they gave up 37 points at home to a Panthers team that's been struggling offensively, and hasn't scored that many points on the road since 2012. Just an ugly effort on the part of their defense.

Split Picks: (APR 1-2, SRS 1-2, Line 2-1)

Patriots (Line) @ Bills (APR, SRS)

No prizes for guessing that the Bills' 2-0 start was a big mirage, or that Kyle Orton wasn't going to carry this team to glory. The Bills were actually in this for much of the game, but too many turnovers on offense, and an inability of the defense to get stops in the second half doomed the Bills to their fate.

Bears (APR, SRS) @ Falcons (Line)

And didn't the Falcons used to have an offense? They only had one drive go more than 33 yards in this game, and join the Jets as the only teams not to score at least 20 points on the Bears this fall. It's starting to look like another long, ugly season for the Falcons.

Giants (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)

That was an amazingly bad performance by the Giants in this game. They didn't have a drive go longer than 18 yards until deep into garbage time.

Meanwhile, it seems kind of weird to say after a 27-0 curb stomping of a divisional opponent, but the Eagles offense didn't really seem that amazing in this game. They really only had 3 sustained drives, and Nick Foles threw a couple more interceptions. In spite of this dominating victory, I'm going to wait a while before pronouncing the Eagles offensive troubles cured.

Totals

Another nice week for everybody, thanks to another solid round of unanimous picks. If only Mike Nugent had made that field goal...

	This Week					This Season					%
APR	11	-	3	-	1	46	-	26	-	1	64.6%
SRS	11	-	3	-	1	43	-	29	-	1	60.4%
Line	12	-	2	-	1	49	-	23	-	1	68.8%

NFL Week 5 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-2)

Right:

Steelers @ Jaguars
Seahawks @ Washington
Vikings @ Packers
Rams @ Eagles
Buccaneers @ Saints
Jets @ Chargers
Falcons @ Giants
Texans @ Cowboys

Wrong:

Bills @ Lions

The Lions' (now ex-) field goal kicker missed three long field goals in this game, which does not make you popular in a game lost by 3 points. But the Lions' offense has to bear some blame too. They only had three drives longer than 31 yards, and never went for it on 4th down, in spite of knowing their kicker is struggling.

Bengals @ Patriots

What struck me in watching this game is how bad the Bengals' defense was. They rarely got any pressure on Brady, they missed tackles, they were out of position. They made it look very easy for the Patriots to drive for scores, which they did repeatedly.

I mentioned in the game picks it's not a good idea to underestimate Belichick and Brady, and this is why. Even now, they are capable of rising up and obliterating their opponent.

Split Picks: (APR 2-3, SRS 1-4, Line 4-1)

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Broncos (Line)

The Cardinals didn't look ready for this game on either side of the ball. The offense punted an astonishing 11 times, and the defense gave up big play after big play. Maybe the most surprising thing about this game is that it was close through three quarters.

Chiefs (SRS) @ 49ers (APR, Line)

On the one hand, the Chiefs' defense didn't have a great day, allowing the 49ers 6 drives of 43 yards or longer, all ending with a score. On the other hand, only one of those was a touchdown, so the Chiefs didn't need an offensive explosion to win the game. But they only managed 3 scoring drives, and their final three drives were all 19 yards or shorter.

Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Colts (Line)

Looking at the boxscore for this game, it was an ugly one for both teams. The Ravens had 3 turnovers, the Colts had 4. Both quarterbacks averaged under 7 yards a pass attempt. The Ravens gave up 4 sacks, the Colts gave up 83 penalty yards. Both teams had a long drive end without a score. In the end, the Colts were able to do a little more with their opportunities than the Ravens did with theirs.

Bears (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)

Browns (APR, SRS) @ Titans (Line)

This is why you don't take your foot off the gas, even when you're up 28-3 over the Browns in your own stadium. The Browns just kept chipping away at that lead, and the Titans just kept not extending it. Part of this was the Titans having to play Charlie Whitehurst, who just wasn't able to respond once the game started to get close again, and part was the fact that the Titans didn't go to a run-heavy offense when they had a chance to run out the clock.

Totals

Best week so far, thanks to a solid round of unanimous picks.

	This Week				This Season				%
APR	10	-	4		35	-	23		60.3%
SRS	9	-	5		32	-	26		55.2%
Line	11	-	3		37	-	21		63.8%

NFL Week 4 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (5-3)

Right:

Lions @ Jets
Dolphins @ Raiders
Jaguars @ Chargers
Panthers @ Ravens
Eagles @ 49ers

Wrong:

Buccaneers @ Steelers

Part of this was mistakes by the Steelers, including an early fumble that gave the Buccaneers a short field for a touchdown, and a late 3-and-out where even one first down would've salted away a win, follwed by a shanked punt, setting up the Buccaneers with another short field for the winning touchdown.

But another big part of this was for maybe the first time this season, the Buccaneers managed to take advantage of the breaks that went their way, instead of making mistakes that were breaks for the other team to take advantage of.

Falcons @ Vikings

The Falcons defense really fell down in this game. The Vikings scored on 5 of their first 6 drives (the exception being a missed field goal). Teddy Bridgewater had a good game passing with 317 yards passing, while Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata rushed for a combined 213 yards. And meanwhile, the Falcons are still not a good come-from-behind team.

Saints @ Cowboys

The Saints offense came out surprisingly flat in this game. They only had one sustained drive in the first half, which resulted in a missed field goal. Meanwhile, the Cowboys sprinted out to a 24-0 halftime lead. The Saints offense finally woke up in the fourth quarter, but by then were looking at a four touchdown deficit, and it was just more than even Drew Brees could come back from.

Split Picks: (APR 2-3, SRS 2-3, Line 3-2)

Giants (APR, SRS) @ Washington (Line)

It's a good thing Washington beat the Jaguars, otherwise we'd be trying to guess when (or if) they'd be getting their first win too.

Meanwhile, the Giants seem to have shaken off the troubles of their first two games, and rattled off a couple of convincing wins. Apart from a road trip to the Seahawks, their remaining schedule is not real tough, and if they can keep things on course, they could actually run away with the NFC East.

Packers (Line) @ Bears (APR, SRS)

So this is what happens when the Packers offense is on track right from the start. The Bears may have had some calls go against them, but their defense didn't get a single stop. The Packers scored every time they had the ball, until that final blocked field goal attempt.

The Bears apparently were trying to use the ball control+defense recipe to beat the Packers (put to such effective use by the Lions last week) but you've got to get stops for that to work.

Bills (APR, SRS) @ Texans (Line)

The Bills certainly had their chances to win this game, including a chance for a go-ahead touchdown on their final drive. But the Bills mostly weren't able to sustain drives in this game, and their final drive only went 30 yards before EJ Manuel threw a game-sealing interception.

Titans (APR, SRS) @ Colts (Line)

It's no surprise that the Colts are not as bad as their 0-2 start. And that week 1 victory over the Chiefs has to seem like a long time ago to the foundering Titans. I suppose the good news is, there'll be no quarterback controversy in Memphis.

Patriots (Line) @ Chiefs (APR, SRS)

I picked this game as a potential upset in the game picks, but I sure didn't expect this to be such a curb stomping. The Patriots defense gave up 17 first half points, which might've been okay, if the offense had been keeping up. But Tom Brady had a very poor night passing, completing just 14 passes, mostly quite short, and throwing a couple really bad interceptions.

The Pats might still win the AFC East again this year, but right now they sure don't look like they could even win one playoff game, let alone make it deep into the playoffs.

Totals

Everybody's 7-5 this week, which is not the most amazing result, although it does draw APR and SRS a little higher percentage wise.

	This Week				This Season				%
APR	7	-	5		25	-	19		56.8%
SRS	7	-	5		23	-	21		52.2%
Line	7	-	5		26	-	18		59.1%

NFL Week 3 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-5)

Right:

Cowboys @ Rams
Ravens @ Browns
Colts @ Jaguars
Buccaneers @ Falcons
Titans @ Bengals
Raiders @ Patriots
Broncos @ Seahawks
Packers @ Lions

Wrong:

Chiefs @ Dolphins

As I expected, the Chiefs are not as bad as their (formerly) 0-2 record indicated, and Ryan Tannehill just isn't enough of a passing threat to drive the Dolphins' offense by himself. Oddly, Lamar Miller (the Dolphins' RB) rushed for 108 yards on 15 carries. Since the game was close going into the 4th quarter, I really have to wonder why the Dolphins didn't call more running plays, giving they were averaging 7 yards a carry.

Chargers @ Bills

Could the Chargers actually be good? I kind of dismissed their win over the Seahawks last week as a fluke (in spite of the fact that they really played well on both sides of the ball). And in this game, the Chargers' defense really ruled the day, forcing 5 punts, two turnovers on downs, and a safety. Holding Buffalo to just 10 points made it easy for their offense to score enough points to carry the day.

Steelers @ Panthers

Last year I wondered if the Panthers were ready to play in a high pressure, high attention environment. The answer in the playoffs was "no", and the answer Sunday night seemed to be "still no". After their opening drive, their offense didn't do anything with Cam Newton, and somehow Derek Anderson actually looked like the better quarterback in this game.

Texans @ Giants

Well, it turns out the Giants can still be a dangerous team. Eli Manning threw for 234 yards and a couple touchdowns, while Rashad Jennings rushed for 176 yards and a TD. Meanwhile, Ryan Fitzpatrick threw 3 interceptions, and the Texans are beginning to understand why he's not the starter for the Bengals, Bills, or Titans.

49ers @ Cardinals

The Cardinals' defense did a good job holding the 49ers to just 14 points. But a big part of this actually has to go to the Cardinals' kicking and punting units. The 49ers only started one drive beyond their own 20 yard line (and punting on that one drive) Which meant that they mostly had at least 80 yards to go to the goal line. And when they did get into field goal range late, the attempt was blocked (again, credit special teams).

The Cardinals had three drives on relatively short fields, and converted them into 10 points, which was the difference in the game.

Split Picks: (APR 2-1, SRS 1-2, Line 2-1)

Bears (APR, SRS) @ Jets (Line)

The Jets really had a chance to win this game. But a critical pick 6 early, and a 1 for 6 conversion rate in the end zone doomed the Jets' hopes for victory.

Vikings (SRS) @ Saints (APR, Line)

No prizes for picking the Saints to beat the Adrian Peterson-less Vikings in their home stadium. It was surprising that this was a one score game until the 4th quarter. Maybe the Saints were just playing down to their competition, but this might be a bad sign for a team that has traditionally dominated in their home stadium.

Washington (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)

I'm not sure what to say about a game that featured a total of 71 points scored, and was decided by a margin of 3 points. Except perhaps that if Washington's defense had been even a little better, they could've won this game.

It's also worth noting the Eagles have given up more points than all but 4 other teams in the league (Jaguars, Bucaneers, Dolphins, and Packers). Relying on a high scoring offense to carry you may work okay in the regular season, but you've really got to be able to play defense when it comes playoff time.

Totals

Not the most amazing week ever, but solidly better than last week, anyway.

	This Week				This Season				%
APR	10	-	6		18	-	14		56.3%
SRS	9	-	7		16	-	16		50.0%
Line	10	-	6		19	-	13		59.4%

NFL Week 2 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (5-5)

Right:

Cardinals @ Giants
Texans @ Raiders
Chiefs @ Broncos
Jaguars @ R*dskins
Falcons @ Bengals

Wrong:

Cowboys @ Titans

Last week, the Cowboys turnovers (including a trio of ugly interceptions) put them in a deep hole they were never able to get out of. This week, Tony Romo didn't throw any interceptions, DeMarco Murray ran for 167 yards. Meanwhile, the Cowboys' defense shut down the Titans' running game, and intercepted Jake Locker twice, and the Cowboys won easily.

Rams @ Buccaneers

The Buccaneers made mistakes in pretty much every aspect of the game. Josh McCown threw an interception in the end zone. Special teams gave up a blocked punt and a blocked field goal attempt. Their defense gave up a 12 play, 71 yard drive that took 4:37 off the game clock, and gave the Rams what turned out to be the winning field goal. All in all, a very sloppy game for Lovie Smith's squad (especially considering his Bears' teams were known for solid defense and special teams).

Bears @ 49ers

I mentioned last week the Bears' defense actually had a pretty good game. This week, they had an excellent game, intercepting Colin Kaepernick 4 times (just the second time in his career he's had a 4-interception game).

The Bears' offense didn't have an amazing game, but they didn't make any mistakes, and made the most of their opportunities. As a result the Bears were able to put a very sour note on the 49ers first game in their new stadium.

Seahawks @ Chargers

Last year, the Chargers used a ball control/defense strategy to steal a win in Denver. This game was a play out of that same strategy, and the same success. The Chargers ran nearly twice as many plays as the Seahawks (75 versus 40), and dominated the time of possession (42:15 to 17:45). This had a major impact on the Seahawks offense (Marshawn Lynch only had 6 carries, in spite of the fact that they were within one score for nearly the whole game).

The Chargers offense really only had two sustained drives, but they got touchdowns on both of them. Include in a couple of field goals, and a touchdown off a turnover, and it added up to more than the Seahawks were able to overcome.

Dolphins @ Bills

The Dolphins lost Knowshon Moreno early in this game, and that turned out to be a big problem. He had 134 yards rushing in week 1, and the Dolphins didn't have anyone to take his place after he went out. Ryan Tannehill threw mostly short passes (4.4 yards per attempt average), and that was only enough to sustain 2 drives longer than 29 yards before garbage time.

Split Picks: (APR 3-3, SRS 2-4, Line 4-2)

Patriots (Line) @ Vikings (APR, SRS)

Well, no surprise that the Adrian Peterson-less Vikings had a tougher time against a good team. Perhaps what is surprising is that QB Matt Cassel threw a back-breaking 4 interceptions. It might only take one more bad game for it to be Teddy Bridgewater time in Minnesota.

Eagles (APR, SRS) @ Colts (Line)

For the second week in a row, it's the tale of two halves for the Eagles. Besides a couple field goals, their first half on offense produced 3 punts, a missed field goal, and an interception. By contrast, they scored on 4 of their 5 second half drives, including the game winning field goal.

The Colts seemed to be more consistent, but once the Eagles found their offensive groove, they just didn't have enough to keep up.

Jets (APR, SRS) @ Packers (Line)

This game started out really ugly for the Packers, falling into a 3-21 hole early in the second quarter. But then Aaron Rodgers seemed to shake off his funk, find Jordy Nelson, and the Packers outscored the Jets 28-3 the rest of the way. Jets fans may grouse about the touchdown-nullifying timeout, but their real problem was Aaron Rodgers throwing for 346 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Lions (SRS) @ Panthers (APR, Line)

Apparently the Panthers' defense is a lot better than the Giants. The Lions had 8 drives end in a punt or a turnover. which is no way to win a football game.

Saints (Line) @ Browns (APR, SRS)

Another ugly road game for the Saints defense. The worst of it was, the Saints offense punted the ball away with a 1-point lead and 2:46 to play. All the Saints defense needed to do is get one more stop, and they likely go home with a win. Instead, they gave up a clock-killing 52 yard drive, that put the Browns in position to kick the winning field goal.

Steelers (APR, SRS) @ Ravens (Line)

In spite of an early fumble, the Steelers made a game of this for the first two quarters, and were only trailing 6-10 at halftime, which seems like a pretty typical Steelers-Ravens score. But (a lot like last week) the Steelers defense just fell apart in the second half and (again, a lot like last week) the offense didn't do much of anything. Meanwhile, the Ravens scored on every second half drive except the last one (which ended with the clock expiring).

It's only two games, but the Steelers have been outscored 40-6 in the second half. If this continues to be a trend, Mike Tomlin is gonna be on the hot seat real quick.

Totals

An inauspicious start to things, but perhaps fitting in a week where 18 teams are 1-1.

	This Week				This Season				%
APR	8	-	8		8	-	8		50%
SRS	7	-	9		7	-	9		44%
Line	9	-	7		9	-	7		56%

NFL Week 1 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (9-4)

Right:

49ers @ Cowboys
Vikings @ Rams
Packers @ Seahawks
Jaguars @ Eagles
Browns @ Steelers
Colts @ Broncos
Raiders @ Jets
Giants @ Lions
Chargers @ Cardinals

Wrong:

Titans @ Chiefs

Last year, the Chiefs made it to 11 wins by playing tough defense, running the ball, and taking advantage of opportunities on special teams. In what might be an ugly preview to how this season will go, they pretty much failed to do any of these. Jake Locker threw for 266 yards and a couple touchdowns, the Titans rushed for 162 yards, and it was the Titans' defense that looked dominant, intercepting Alex Smith 3 times, and holding the Chiefs to just 67 yards rushing.

Bills @ Bears

The good news for the Bears is, they held their opponent to 20 points in regulation, something they only did twice last year. The bad news is, they only scored 20 points themselves, and couldn't keep the Bills out of field goal range in overtime. An inauspicious start for a team expected to content for the NFC North this year.

Saints @ Falcons

You know how the Saints kinda sucked on the road last year? It doesn't seem like that's changed much. The offense had their problems (including that back breaking turnover in overtime), but it's hard to get past the fact their defense gave up 34 points to a Falcons team that only made it to 34 points once last year. No matter how good your offense is, it's tough to win games when you gotta score 5 touchdowns to do it.

Patriots @ Dolphins

You know how the Patriots kinda sucked on the road last year? Yeah, same deal. The Patriots sprinted out to a 20-10 halftime lead, and then pretty much didn't do anything on either side of the ball the second half, including giving up 23 points to the Dolphins. It's gonna be a long year for the Pats if they play like that, even if it is just in road games.

Split Picks: (Pythag 2-1, Line 1-2)

Panthers (Pythag) @ Buccaneers (Line)

Looking at the boxscore for this game, I'm not seeing a lot of noticeable differences in how these two teams played. Both teams struggled offensively (unsurprising given Derek Anderson and Josh McCown were the quarterbacks on the field). Probably the key difference was Josh McCown threw a couple interceptions, and Derek Anderson did not.

Bengals (Pythag) @ Ravens (Line)

Maybe the Line picked the Ravens on their reputation (they won the Super Bowl a year and a half ago, remember?) But they weren't a very good team last year, and the Ray Rice situation had to be an ugly distraction (even before it went nuclear yesterday).

As I indicated in the power rankings, I wasn't real impressed with the Bengals' performance in this game, especially in the second half, but at least it was enough to get them a road win in the division.

R*dskins (Pythag) @ Texans (Line)

The good news for Washington is they held their opponent to 17 points, something they only did once all last year. The bad news is their offense was pretty bad, and the two times they got sustained drives going, they fumbled the ball away.

If their defense can get keep playing well, they may actually not be that far from being in contention, but you really need to hang onto the ball, and you really need to be able to sustain more than a couple drives a game.

I thought these picks seemed kind of conservative in the game picks, but an 11-5 record for Pythag, and 10-6 for the Line bear out that was not out of line.

NFL Super Bowl Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Seahawks (APR, SRS) vs. Broncos (Line)

Like I said in the game pick, it was essential for Peyton Manning and the Broncos' offense to get a handle on the Seahawks' defense before this game got out of hand. As you know if you saw the game, that just didn't happen.

I think, even in the best case scenario for the Broncos, their defense was never gonna hold the Seahawks under 14, or probably even 21 points. I think that defense mostly did a reasonable job, holding the Seahawks to 13 points in the first half (the safety, and Manning's pick 6 cannot be laid to their charge).

After the mess of their first two drives (safety and interception), the Broncos did manage to get some drives going, they mostly ended up stalling, ending in a intercpetion, fumbles, or a turnover on downs.

Manning was only sacked once, but the Seahawks' defense kept him under constant pressure, which meant he had to throw a lot of short check down passes, largely eliminating a lot of the big play explosiveness that got the Broncos to the Super Bowl. Without that big play ability, they just couldn't sustain drives for the scores they needed.

Totals

Barely any upsets in the playoffs this year. Chargers @ Bengals was the only game APR (along with SRS and the Line) picked wrong.

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	1	-	0			10	-	1		90.9%
SRS	1	-	0			9	-	2		81.8%
Line	0	-	1			8	-	3		72.7%

That's not quite all for this season. I'm planning to do at least the season's biggest upsets post, and maybe a couple others as well. So you might wanna check in later this month. Thanks again for reading, and see you next August.