Tuesday, September 30, 2014

NFL Week 4 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (5-3)


Lions @ Jets
Dolphins @ Raiders
Jaguars @ Chargers
Panthers @ Ravens
Eagles @ 49ers


Buccaneers @ Steelers
Part of this was mistakes by the Steelers, including an early fumble that gave the Buccaneers a short field for a touchdown, and a late 3-and-out where even one first down would've salted away a win, follwed by a shanked punt, setting up the Buccaneers with another short field for the winning touchdown.
But another big part of this was for maybe the first time this season, the Buccaneers managed to take advantage of the breaks that went their way, instead of making mistakes that were breaks for the other team to take advantage of.
Falcons @ Vikings
The Falcons defense really fell down in this game. The Vikings scored on 5 of their first 6 drives (the exception being a missed field goal). Teddy Bridgewater had a good game passing with 317 yards passing, while Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata rushed for a combined 213 yards. And meanwhile, the Falcons are still not a good come-from-behind team.
Saints @ Cowboys
The Saints offense came out surprisingly flat in this game. They only had one sustained drive in the first half, which resulted in a missed field goal. Meanwhile, the Cowboys sprinted out to a 24-0 halftime lead. The Saints offense finally woke up in the fourth quarter, but by then were looking at a four touchdown deficit, and it was just more than even Drew Brees could come back from.

Split Picks: (APR 2-3, SRS 2-3, Line 3-2)

Giants (APR, SRS) @ Washington (Line)
It's a good thing Washington beat the Jaguars, otherwise we'd be trying to guess when (or if) they'd be getting their first win too.
Meanwhile, the Giants seem to have shaken off the troubles of their first two games, and rattled off a couple of convincing wins. Apart from a road trip to the Seahawks, their remaining schedule is not real tough, and if they can keep things on course, they could actually run away with the NFC East.
Packers (Line) @ Bears (APR, SRS)
So this is what happens when the Packers offense is on track right from the start. The Bears may have had some calls go against them, but their defense didn't get a single stop. The Packers scored every time they had the ball, until that final blocked field goal attempt.
The Bears apparently were trying to use the ball control+defense recipe to beat the Packers (put to such effective use by the Lions last week) but you've got to get stops for that to work.
Bills (APR, SRS) @ Texans (Line)
The Bills certainly had their chances to win this game, including a chance for a go-ahead touchdown on their final drive. But the Bills mostly weren't able to sustain drives in this game, and their final drive only went 30 yards before EJ Manuel threw a game-sealing interception.
Titans (APR, SRS) @ Colts (Line)
It's no surprise that the Colts are not as bad as their 0-2 start. And that week 1 victory over the Chiefs has to seem like a long time ago to the foundering Titans. I suppose the good news is, there'll be no quarterback controversy in Memphis.
Patriots (Line) @ Chiefs (APR, SRS)
I picked this game as a potential upset in the game picks, but I sure didn't expect this to be such a curb stomping. The Patriots defense gave up 17 first half points, which might've been okay, if the offense had been keeping up. But Tom Brady had a very poor night passing, completing just 14 passes, mostly quite short, and throwing a couple really bad interceptions.
The Pats might still win the AFC East again this year, but right now they sure don't look like they could even win one playoff game, let alone make it deep into the playoffs.


Everybody's 7-5 this week, which is not the most amazing result, although it does draw APR and SRS a little higher percentage wise.

APR 7- 5 25-1956.8%
SRS 7- 5 23-2152.2%
Line 7- 5 26-1859.1%