Monday, November 30, 2009

NFL Week 12 Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for week 12.

Unanimous picks (10-1)

Correctly picked:

Browns @ Bengals
Packers @ Lions
Bears @ Vikings
Chiefs @ Chargers
Buccaneers @ Falcons
Raiders @ Cowboys
Redskins @ Eagles
Colts @ Texans
Seahawks @ Rams
Panthers @ Jets

Not so much:

Dolphins @ Bills
The game was pretty even until the Bills kicked a go-ahead field goal late in the fourth quarter. Then Chad Henne started pressing his passes, and the Dolphins final three drives all ended on interceptions.

Split Picks (APR 2-3, SRS 2-3, Line 4-1)

Jaguars (APR) @ 49ers (SRS, Line)
Key stat of the game: Garrard was sacked 6 times, for 46 yards and two lost fumbles. The lost fumbles were particularly disastrous, as they were both in the red zone.

Steelers (APR) @ Ravens (SRS, Line)
if Roethisburger and Polamalu had played, the Steelers probably would've run away with this game.

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Titans (Line)
I figured this game to feature a heavy dose of Chris Johnson, with just enough of Vince Young to keep drives going. Instead, Johnson was (mostly) held in check (17 for 69 plus one 85 yard td run), and it was Vince Young who had a career day passing (27/43 for 387 yards and a td). Young's virtuoso performance came on the final 99-yard touchdown drive that was all passing except for one scramble and one sack. Somehow, the Cardinal's defense just couldn't stop him.

Giants (SRS, Line) @ Broncos (APR)
There's no shortage of things that went wrong for the Giants in this game. In the first half, Eli Manning completed just 6 passes and was sacked twice. In the second half, the Giants managed to drive for a couple of field goals, but it cost them more than 9 minutes off the clock. They only had three more drives, which ended with a fumble, an interception, and the clock expiring.

Patriots (SRS) @ Saints (APR, Line)
Drew Brees and the the Saints receivers just ripped through the Patriots defense. 371 yards passing, 5 touchdowns, just 5 incompletions. The Saints have had some weak games this year, but this wasn't one of them.

Standings:

This Week Overall%
APR  12-4103-5764.4%
SRS  12-4102-5863.7%
Line  14-2110-5068.8%
Unanimous 10-1 81-2874.3%

New power rankings, and Week 13 picks to come.

Sunday, November 29, 2009

NCAA: Apr's Top 30+, Week 13

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Official rankings will be added after they are published.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)Texas
BCS=3
12-07.9646
(LW × 1.006)
won by 10
at Texas-A&M
2 (-)Alabama
BCS=2
12-07.0867
(LW × 1.049)
won by 5
at Auburn
3 (-)Florida
BCS=1
12-07.0284
(LW × 1.153)
won by 27
vs Florida-St
4 (-)Texas-Tech8-45.8383
(LW × 0.965)
won by 7
at Baylor
5 (↑10)Oklahoma7-55.8105
(LW × 1.159)
won by 27
vs Oklahoma-St
6 (-)Arkansas7-55.5312
(LW × 0.999)
lost by 3
at LSU
7 (↓2)TCU
BCS=4
12-05.4522
(LW × 0.904)
won by 41
vs New-Mexico
8 (↑1)Virginia-Tech
BCS=12
9-35.4504
(LW × 1.023)
won by 29
at Virginia
9 (↑10)Boise-St
BCS=6
12-05.3198
(LW × 1.153)
won by 11
vs Nevada
10 (-)Ohio-St
BCS=8
10-25.1738
(LW × 0.972)
Bye
11 (↑3)Oregon
BCS=7
9-25.1680
(LW × 1.000)
Bye
12 (↓1)Penn-St
BCS=11
10-25.1153
(LW × 0.963)
Bye
13 (↓5)Mississippi8-45.0479
(LW × 0.946)
lost by 14
at Mississippi-St
14 (↓2)Cincinnati
BCS=5
11-04.9421
(LW × 0.941)
won by 13
vs Illinois
15 (↓8)Georgia-Tech
BCS=10
10-24.9094
(LW × 0.890)
lost by 6
vs Georgia
16 (↑1)Nebraska
BCS=22
9-34.6269
(LW × 0.960)
won by 8
at Colorado
17 (↑5)Miami-FL
BCS=17
9-34.5774
(LW × 1.031)
won by 21
at South-Florida
18 (↓5)Oklahoma-St
BCS=20
9-34.5122
(LW × 0.870)
lost by 27
at Oklahoma
19 (↑4)Stanford
BCS=24
8-44.4446
(LW × 1.016)
won by 7
vs Notre-Dame
20 (↑9)LSU
BCS=13
9-34.4440
(LW × 1.178)
won by 3
vs Arkansas
21 (↓5)Pittsburgh
BCS=15
9-24.4075
(LW × 0.881)
lost by 3
at West-Virginia
22 (↑2)Iowa
BCS=9
10-24.2465
(LW × 0.973)
Bye
23 (↓5)Clemson8-44.2385
(LW × 0.894)
lost by 17
at South-Carolina
24 (↑1)Oregon-St
BCS=16
8-34.2144
(LW × 0.992)
Bye
25 (↑2)West-Virginia
BCS=23
8-24.2103
(LW × 1.041)
won by 3
vs Pittsburgh
26 (↓5)Texas-A&M6-64.1654
(LW × 0.924)
lost by 10
vs Texas
27 (↑1)Auburn7-54.1228
(LW × 1.027)
lost by 5
vs Alabama
28 (↑4)Tennessee7-54.1218
(LW × 1.140)
won by 6
at Kentucky
29 (↓9)North-Carolina8-44.0480
(LW × 0.885)
lost by 1
at NC-State
30 (-)USC
BCS=18
8-34.0347
(LW × 1.083)
won by 21
vs UCLA

Other notable teams:
33 (-)Houston
BCS=21
10-23.7779
(LW × 1.052)
won by 59
vs Rice
36 (↑1)BYU
BCS=14
10-23.6063
(LW × 1.033)
won by 3
vs Utah
38 (↓4)California
BCS=19
8-33.5160
(LW × 0.983)
Bye
48 (↓5)Utah
BCS=25
9-33.0356
(LW × 0.943)
lost by 3
at BYU

Comments:

  • Alabama and Florida are now in a virtual tie.

  • Arkansas loses to LSU, and barely budges. But they're getting a lot of power from recent wins over South Carolina, Mississippi, and (yes) Troy.

  • And Oklahoma is another 7-5 team in the top 10. But they're 4-2 in their last 6, and have a 3-point loss to APR's #1 Texas.

  • While Texas A&M is still getting an enormous amount of power from their 22-point win over Texas Tech (week 8), and lesser but still significant power from their 25-point win over Iowa State (week 9) and 35-point win over Baylor (week 13).

  • Arizona really looked anemic against ASU. They converted just 2 of 15 third downs, and (apart from one 67 yard run), had just 62 yards rushing on 19 attempts. They got the winning field goal because ASU muffed a late punt. Like last week against Oregon, the defense faded down the stretch, and ASU would've had a real chance to win if they'd held on to the ball (or even just gotten to overtime).

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

NFL Week 12 Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com, except for Steelers @ Ravens and Cardinals @ Titans, which are taken from footballlocks.com.

Picks for week 12.

GameAPRSRSLine
Cleveland Browns @
Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals
ρ=3.3301
Bengals
δ=18.35
Bengals
-14
Green Bay Packers @
Detroit Lions
Packers
ρ=2.5861
Packers
δ=15.64
Packers
-10
Chicago Bears @
Minnesota Vikings
Vikings
ρ=1.9599
Vikings
δ=9.78
Vikings
-10½
Kansas City Chiefs @
San Diego Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.8679
Chargers
δ=13.27
Chargers
-13½
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @
Atlanta Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.7737
Falcons
δ=14.83
Falcons
-11½
Oakland Raiders @
Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.6980
Cowboys
δ=15.18
Cowboys
-13½
Washington Redskins @
Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.6684
Eagles
δ=11.09
Eagles
-9
Indianapolis Colts @
Houston Texans
Colts
ρ=1.4399
Colts
δ=9.86
Colts
-3½
Miami Dolphins @
Buffalo Bills
Dolphins
ρ=1.3565
Dolphins
δ=10.91
Dolphins
-3
Seattle Seahawks @
St. Louis Rams
Seahawks
ρ=1.3169
Seahawks
δ=10.42
Seahawks
-3
Jacksonville Jaguars @
San Francisco 49ers
Jaguars
ρ=1.3132
49ers
δ=6.16
49ers
-3
Pittsburgh Steelers @
Baltimore Ravens
Steelers
ρ=1.1383
Ravens
δ=5.05
Ravesn
-2½
Arizona Cardinals @
Tennessee Titans
Cardinals
ρ=1.1266
Cardinals
δ=8.10
Titans
-2½
New York Giants @
Denver Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.1160
Giants
δ=3.18
Giants
-6½
New England Patriots @
New Orleans Saints
Saints
ρ=1.0994
Patriots
δ=0.25
Saints
-3
Carolina Panthers @
New York Jets
Jets
ρ=1.0298
Jets
δ=7.57
Jets
-3

Comments:

  • The Packers are favored to win on Thursday. But playing at the Lions on Thanksgiving is a notoriously hard win, and the Packers must play the rest of the season without Al Harris and Aaron Kampman. It doesn't look to be as easy as the Packers 26-0 win over the Lions in week 6.

  • The Cowboys have barely scored 7 points in each of their last two games. They're going to need better production out of their offense to make the playoffs, starting with the vising Raiders on Thursday afternoon.

  • The final Thursday game, Giants @ Broncos, features two teams both in desperate need of a win to stay in the playoff hunt. The Broncos choices for quarterback are an injured Kyle Orton, an ineffective Chris Simms, or an inexperienced rookie Tom Brandstater. About the only thing the Broncos can count on is the thinness of that mile-high air slowing down the Giants.

  • The Jaguars have made it to 6-4, but they've been picking off a lot of weak teams (including the Rams, Chiefs, Jets, and Bills) If the 49ers's 6th-ranked run defense can stop Maurice Jones-Drew, they should have a good chance at beating the Jaguars on Sunday.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

NFL Week 11 Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For Week 11

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)New Orleans
Saints
10-05.7213
(LW × 0.944)
won by 31
at Buccaneers
2 (-)Indianapolis
Colts
10-05.5031
(LW × 0.935)
won by 2
at Ravens
3 (↑1)New England
Patriots
7-35.2038
(LW × 1.063)
won by 17
vs Jets
4 (↑12)San Diego
Chargers
7-34.9147
(LW × 1.367)
won by 29
at Broncos
5 (↑4)Minnesota
Vikings
9-14.2242
(LW × 1.000)
won by 26
vs Seahawks
6 (↓1)Arizona
Cardinals
7-34.1999
(LW × 0.896)
won by 8
at Rams
7 (↓4)Cincinnati
Bengals
7-34.1786
(LW × 0.816)
lost by 3
at Raiders
8 (↓2)Pittsburgh
Steelers
6-44.1248
(LW × 0.894)
lost by 3
at Chiefs
9 (↓1)Dallas
Cowboys
7-34.0245
(LW × 0.910)
won by 1
vs Redskins
10 (↓3)Houston
Texans
5-53.8219
(LW × 0.845)
lost by 3
vs Titans
11 (↑1)Tennessee
Titans
4-63.7279
(LW × 0.977)
won by 3
at Texans
12 (↑3)Philadelphia
Eagles
6-43.7245
(LW × 1.019)
won by 4
at Bears
13 (↓2)Denver
Broncos
6-43.7026
(LW × 0.954)
lost by 29
vs Chargers
14 (-)Baltimore
Ravens
5-53.6236
(LW × 0.952)
lost by 2
vs Colts
15 (↑5)Miami
Dolphins
5-53.4218
(LW × 1.133)
won by 7
at Panthers
16 (↑1)New York
Jets
4-63.3965
(LW × 0.955)
lost by 17
at Patriots
17 (↑1)Jacksonville
Jaguars
6-43.3556
(LW × 0.971)
won by 3
vs Bills
18 (↑5)New York
Giants
6-43.3177
(LW × 1.158)
won by 3
vs Falcons
19 (↓9)Carolina
Panthers
4-63.2984
(LW × 0.813)
lost by 7
vs Dolphins
20 (↓7)Atlanta
Falcons
5-53.2878
(LW × 0.862)
lost by 3
at Giants
21 (↓2)Green Bay
Packers
6-43.2074
(LW × 0.990)
won by 6
vs 49ers
22 (↑5)Kansas City
Chiefs
3-72.6311
(LW × 1.350)
won by 3
vs Steelers
23 (↓2)San Francisco
49ers
4-62.5553
(LW × 0.852)
lost by 6
at Packers
24 (↓2)Buffalo
Bills
3-72.5225
(LW × 0.880)
lost by 3
at Jaguars
25 (↑5)Oakland
Raiders
3-72.3702
(LW × 1.454)
won by 3
vs Bengals
26 (-)Washington
Redskins
3-72.2323
(LW × 0.977)
lost by 1
at Cowboys
27 (↓2)Seattle
Seahawks
3-72.1615
(LW × 0.885)
lost by 26
at Vikings
28 (↓4)Chicago
Bears
4-62.1553
(LW × 0.876)
lost by 4
vs Eagles
29 (↓1)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
1-91.8537
(LW × 0.976)
lost by 31
vs Saints
30 (↓1)St. Louis
Rams
1-91.6413
(LW × 0.953)
lost by 8
vs Cardinals
31 (-)Cleveland
Browns
1-91.2548
(LW × 0.837)
lost by 1
at Lions
32 (-)Detroit
Lions
2-81.2402
(LW × 1.004)
won by 1
vs Browns

Comments

  • APR would've moved the Colts into first place this week if they had won my 6 or more points. Of their 10 wins, 6 have come by 4 points or less.

  • The Titans are knocking on the door of the top 10. With their seeming return to last year's dominating form, it's hard to disagree.

  • The Broncos should probably be ranked a lot lower as long as Kyle Orton is hurt. But APR doesn't take into account injuries, and that 6-0 start is still on the books.

  • The Jets and Jaguars move up the list in spite of losing power, thanks to big drops by the Panthers and Falcons.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Packers (+9)
How do you figure the Packers? In the first half, they absolutely dominated the 49ers. In the second half, they were outscored 21-7. Losing Al Harris and Aaron Kampman was part of that, but it doesn't explain the lack of offensive production.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Titans (-8)
Yeah, they started a very miserable 0-6, but that's starting to seem like a long time ago. With Vince Young playing as well as he ever has, and a rejuvinated defense, they are playing back at a very high level.

Texans (-8)
The Texans are a frustratingly inconsistent team. They're now 2-4 in games decided by 7 points or less, including the last two losses. If they're going to get to the playoffs, they need to consistently win the close games.

Monday, November 23, 2009

NFL Week 11 Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for week 11.

Unanimous picks (9-3)

Correctly picked:

Saints @ Buccaneers
Cardinals @ Rams
Redskins @ Cowboys
Seahawks @ Vikings
Colts @ Ravens
Eagles @ Bears
Jets @ Patriots
Bills @ Jaguars
49ers @ Packers

Not so much:

Bengals @ Raiders
No doubt you've seen the kick return fumble that set up the Raiders to kick the winning field goal. But the Bengals have other problems. Their defense let the Raiders drive 80 yards for the tying score on the previous drive. And their offense couldn't score more than 17 points on a Raider defense that has been giving up on average 25 points a game.

Steelers @ Chiefs
The Steelers are another team with multiple problems. They gave up another kick-return touchdown in this game. They couldn't score on two possesions after the Chiefs made the tying score. But probably worst of all, they couldn't stop the Chiefs from driving 91 yards down the field to make the tying score. The Steelers just aren't the same team when Troy Polamalu isn't on the field.

Titans @ Texans
Vince Young is certainly doing his part for the Titans: 116 yards passing on 22 attempts, and 73 yards rushing. But somehow the defense has been rejuvinated, too. In the first 6 games, they gave up at least 31 points in all but two games. Since then, they've given 17 or less in all but one game. Teams that still need to play the Titans should forget about that 0-6 start—they're playing a lot more like last year's 13-3 squad right now.

Split Picks (APR 0-4, SRS 1-3, Line 3-1)

Dolphins (SRS) @ Panthers (APR, Line)
Jake Delhomme's numbers through 3 quarters were awful: 9/20 for 93 yards and an interception. He had something of a turn-around in the 4th quarter, putting up 134 yards and a touchdown. But while the offense was finally putting up some points, the defense had a 4th quarter melt-down, giving up a crucial 3rd-and-12 conversion, followed by a Ricky Williams 46-yard touchdown run. At that point in the game, that proved to be enough to put the game out of reach.

Falcons (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)
The Falcons continue to be the Poster Team for splitting the power index into 'home' and 'away' versions, at least for picking games. They are 5-0 at home, 1-5 on the road.

Browns (APR, SRS) @ Lions (Line)
Who can blow a first quarter 24-3 lead? Who can get called for defensive pass interference on a Hail Mary? Who can score 37 points and still lose? Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2009 Cleveland Browns!

Chargers (Line) @ Broncos (APR, SRS)
The Broncos haven't been the same since the bye, struggling on offense and defense. And now with Kyle Orton hurt, and Chris Simms flaming out, they're in free-fall.

Standings:

This Week Overall%
APR   9-791-5363.2%
SRS  10-690-5462.5%
Line  12-496-4866.7%
Unanimous  9-371-2772.4%

New power rankings, and Week 12 picks to come.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 12

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Official rankings will be added after they are published. Sorry about this being later than usual. Long day on Saturday, and didn't realize it until I was watching football Sunday afternoon.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)Texas
BCS=3
11-07.9155
(LW × 0.942)
won by 31
vs Kansas
2 (-)Alabama
BCS=2
11-06.7540
(LW × 0.934)
won by 45
vs Chattanooga
3 (-)Florida
BCS=1
11-06.0935
(LW × 0.913)
won by 59
vs Florida-Intl
4 (↑11)Texas-Tech7-46.0472
(LW × 1.220)
won by 28
vs Oklahoma
5 (↓1)TCU
BCS=4
11-06.0340
(LW × 0.961)
won by 35
at Wyoming
6 (↑5)Arkansas7-45.5379
(LW × 1.063)
won by 21
vs Mississippi-St
7 (↓2)Georgia-Tech
BCS=7
10-15.5148
(LW × 0.968)
Bye
8 (↑4)Mississippi
BCS=25
8-35.3376
(LW × 1.038)
won by 12
vs LSU
9 (↓1)Virginia-Tech
BCS=14
8-35.3294
(LW × 0.965)
won by 28
vs NC-State
10 (↓1)Ohio-St
BCS=10
10-25.3251
(LW × 0.985)
won by 11
at Michigan
11 (↑11)Penn-St
BCS=13
10-25.3121
(LW × 1.192)
won by 28
at Michigan-St
12 (↑4)Cincinnati
BCS=5
10-05.2547
(LW × 1.071)
Bye
13 (↓6)Oklahoma-St
BCS=12
9-25.1853
(LW × 0.929)
won by 3
vs Colorado
14 (↓4)Oregon
BCS=8
9-25.1674
(LW × 0.975)
won by 3
at Arizona
15 (↓9)Oklahoma6-55.0122
(LW × 0.884)
lost by 28
at Texas-Tech
16 (↑3)Pittsburgh
BCS=9
9-15.0019
(LW × 1.083)
Bye
17 (↓3)Nebraska8-34.8202
(LW × 0.969)
won by 14
vs Kansas-St
18 (↓1)Clemson
BCS=18
8-34.7416
(LW × 0.967)
won by 13
vs Virginia
19 (↓1)Boise-St
BCS=6
11-04.6154
(LW × 0.975)
won by 31
at Utah-St
20 (↑6)North-Carolina
BCS=24
8-34.5742
(LW × 1.092)
won by 18
at Boston-Coll
21 (↑6)Texas-A&M6-54.5092
(LW × 1.109)
won by 35
vs Baylor
22 (↓1)Miami-FL
BCS=17
8-34.4411
(LW × 0.986)
won by 18
vs Duke
23 (↓10)Stanford7-44.3758
(LW × 0.875)
lost by 6
vs California
24 (↓1)Iowa
BCS=11
10-24.3662
(LW × 1.005)
won by 12
vs Minnesota
25 (↓5)Oregon-St
BCS=16
8-34.2496
(LW × 0.932)
won by 32
at Washington-St
26 (↓1)Missouri7-44.1928
(LW × 0.996)
won by 10
vs Iowa-St
27 (↑8)West-Virginia7-24.0430
(LW × 1.106)
Bye
28 (-)Auburn7-44.0153
(LW × 1.003)
Bye
29 (↓5)LSU
BCS=15
8-33.7721
(LW × 0.896)
lost by 12
at Mississippi
30 (↑2)USC
BCS=20
7-33.7267
(LW × 0.973)
Bye

Other notable teams:
33 (↑1)Houston
BCS=23
9-23.5918
(LW × 0.965)
won by 41
vs Memphis
34 (↑8)California
BCS=22
8-33.5778
(LW × 1.104)
won by 6
at Stanford
37 (↑6)BYU
BCS=19
9-23.4904
(LW × 1.080)
won by 17
vs Air-Force
43 (↑2)Utah
BCS=21
9-23.2201
(LW × 1.024)
won by 31
vs San-Diego-St

Comments:

  • Florida drops a little more than Alabama, it's still (hypothetically) a pretty close match-up.

  • Arizona had a tough loss to Oregon at home. They were up by 10 points in the 4th quarter, but the defense was gassed, and couldn't stop Oregon forcing overtime, and couldn't hold Oregon in overtime.

  • Texas Tech somehow claws their way into the top 5. But that 22-point loss to Texas A&M (APR #21) is something of a head-scratcher.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

NFL Week 11 Picks

Update: just noticed I didn't have a line for Falcons @ Giants. Added from yahoo.com

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com, except for Chargers @ Broncos, which is taken from footballlocks.com.

Picks for week 11.

GameAPRSRSLine
New Orleans Saints @
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Saints
ρ=3.1916
Saints
δ=22.29
Saints
-11
Cincinnati Bengals @
Oakland Raiders
Bengals
ρ=3.1420
Bengals
δ=22.12
Bengals
-9½
Arizona Cardinals @
St. Louis Rams
Cardinals
ρ=2.7235
Cardinals
δ=21.26
Cardinals
-9
Pittsburgh Steelers @
Kansas City Chiefs
Steelers
ρ=2.3672
Steelers
δ=15.29
Steelers
-10
Washington Redskins @
Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.9354
Cowboys
δ=12.83
Cowboys
-11
Seattle Seahawks @
Minnesota Vikings
Vikings
ρ=1.7295
Vikings
δ=7.80
Vikings
-11
Indianapolis Colts @
Baltimore Ravens
Colts
ρ=1.5454
Colts
δ=3.97
Colts
-1
Philadelphia Eagles @
Chicago Bears
Eagles
ρ=1.4851
Eagles
δ=5.66
Eagles
-3
New York Jets @
New England Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.3763
Patriots
δ=8.76
Patriots
-10½
Miami Dolphins @
Carolina Panthers
Panthers
ρ=1.3428
Dolphins
δ=6.16
Panthers
-3
Atlanta Falcons @
New York Giants
Falcons
ρ=1.3307
Falcons
δ=3.60
Giants
-6½
Cleveland Browns @
Detroit Lions
Browns
ρ=1.2130
Browns
δ=0.03
Lions
-4
Buffalo Bills @
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars
ρ=1.2053
Jaguars
δ=1.15
Jaguars
-8½
Tennessee Titans @
Houston Texans
Texans
ρ=1.1848
Texans
δ=7.93
Texans
-4½
San Francisco 49ers @
Green Bay Packers
Packers
ρ=1.0801
Packers
δ=1.57
Packers
-6½
San Diego Chargers @
Denver Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.0793
Broncos
δ=0.27
Chargers
-3

Comments:

  • Dolphins @ Panthers is the Thursday night game.

  • The Yahoo line listing presents lines from several different booking services. Normally, they agree on what team is favored, though not always by the precise value. This week, there are 3 lines with Colts - 1, and one with Ravens - 1. In this case, majority rules, so Colts - 1 is listed above.

  • The Packers have beat the 49ers 12 times in a row in the regular season, dating back to 1995. They're probably going to need a better game from Aaron Rodgers and the offense to keep that streak alive. Of course, the 49ers are probably going to need to score more than 10 points to end that streak.

  • The Falcons are still looking for their second road win, and the Giants are looking to end their 4-game losing streak.

  • The Browns will have a lot tougher time with the Lions if Josh Cribbs can't play.

NFL Week 10 Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For Week 10

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)New Orleans
Saints
9-06.0620
(LW × 0.871)
won by 5
at Rams
2 (-)Indianapolis
Colts
9-05.8842
(LW × 1.087)
won by 1
vs Patriots
3 (↑4)Cincinnati
Bengals
7-25.1214
(LW × 1.146)
won by 6
at Steelers
4 (↓1)New England
Patriots
6-34.8934
(LW × 0.948)
lost by 1
at Colts
5 (↑1)Arizona
Cardinals
6-34.6892
(LW × 1.037)
won by 11
vs Seahawks
6 (↓2)Pittsburgh
Steelers
6-34.6152
(LW × 0.899)
lost by 6
vs Bengals
7 (↑2)Houston
Texans
5-44.5222
(LW × 1.037)
Bye
8 (↓3)Dallas
Cowboys
6-34.4243
(LW × 0.923)
lost by 10
at Packers
9 (↑4)Minnesota
Vikings
8-14.2247
(LW × 1.116)
won by 17
vs Lions
10 (↑5)Carolina
Panthers
4-54.0559
(LW × 1.176)
won by 9
vs Falcons
11 (↓3)Denver
Broncos
6-33.8809
(LW × 0.875)
lost by 10
at Redskins
12 (↑6)Tennessee
Titans
3-63.8167
(LW × 1.253)
won by 24
vs Bills
13 (↓2)Atlanta
Falcons
5-43.8133
(LW × 0.970)
lost by 9
at Panthers
14 (↓2)Baltimore
Ravens
5-43.8076
(LW × 0.995)
won by 16
at Browns
15 (↓1)Philadelphia
Eagles
5-43.6538
(LW × 1.033)
lost by 8
at Chargers
16 (↑3)San Diego
Chargers
6-33.5957
(LW × 1.189)
won by 8
vs Eagles
17 (↓7)New York
Jets
4-53.5554
(LW × 0.892)
lost by 2
vs Jaguars
18 (↑2)Jacksonville
Jaguars
5-43.4562
(LW × 1.239)
won by 2
at Jets
19 (↑6)Green Bay
Packers
5-43.2391
(LW × 1.452)
won by 10
vs Cowboys
20 (↓4)Miami
Dolphins
4-53.0205
(LW × 0.884)
won by 2
vs Buccaneers
21 (-)San Francisco
49ers
4-52.9988
(LW × 1.085)
won by 4
vs Bears
22 (↓5)Buffalo
Bills
3-62.8675
(LW × 0.920)
lost by 24
at Titans
23 (↓1)New York
Giants
5-42.8657
(LW × 1.080)
Bye
24 (↓1)Chicago
Bears
4-52.4603
(LW × 0.944)
lost by 4
at 49ers
25 (↓1)Seattle
Seahawks
3-62.4427
(LW × 1.069)
lost by 11
at Cardinals
26 (↑4)Washington
Redskins
3-62.2860
(LW × 1.765)
won by 10
vs Broncos
27 (↑2)Kansas City
Chiefs
2-71.9497
(LW × 1.387)
won by 6
at Raiders
28 (-)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
1-81.8994
(LW × 1.199)
lost by 2
at Dolphins
29 (↑2)St. Louis
Rams
1-81.7218
(LW × 1.385)
lost by 5
vs Saints
30 (↓4)Oakland
Raiders
2-71.6300
(LW × 0.954)
lost by 6
vs Chiefs
31 (↓4)Cleveland
Browns
1-81.4985
(LW × 0.927)
lost by 16
vs Ravens
32 (-)Detroit
Lions
1-81.2354
(LW × 1.145)
lost by 17
at Vikings

Comments

  • The Saints only beat the lowley Rams by 5, and lose a big chunk of their power index as a result. Because they play another weak team (Tampa Bay) next week, the Colts could very easily take over the #1 spot with a win over the Ravens.

  • The Panthers and Titans are enjoying high rankings in spite of their losing records in part because APR gives less weight to older games.

  • The same process gives more weight to the Giants' 0-4 run, making them the lowest ranked team with a winning record. The good news for the Giants is they have the Falcons at home followed by the reeling Broncos.

  • Somehow the Jaguars have clawed their way to a winning record! They could even make it to 8 or 9 wins this season—they are presently ranked above 4 of their remaining opponents (Dolphins, 49ers, Bills, and Browns).

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Chargers (+8)
The Chargers' biggest problem (for APR ranking, anyway) is that they play in the same division as the Chiefs and Raiders. They managed to sweep the Raiders, but only by a combined margin of 12 points. And I'm not sure how much credit they deserve for beating the fading Giants and incosistent Eagles.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Panthers (-10)
The Panthers are looking a lot better lately, with their 13-point win over the Cardinals as centerpiece. They could actually climb to 7-5 before reaching a brutal 4-game stretch to end the season.

Titans (-10)
It's hard to know what to make of the Titans—they certainly struggled mightily in their first 6 games, capped by a 0-59 disaster at the hands of the Patriots. If they can beat the Texans next week, it will be harder to dismiss their winning streak as a fluke.

Monday, November 16, 2009

NFL Week 10 Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for week 10.

Unanimous picks (6-4)

Correctly picked:

Saints @ Rams
Lions @ Vikings
Ravens @ Browns
Buccaneers @ Dolphins
Seahawks @ Cardinals
Bears @ 49ers

Not so much:

Broncos @ Redskins
As suspected, Chris Simms is not a good quarterback. But the Broncos were just barely beating the Redskins with Kyle Orton. I'm not sure why, but the Broncos just haven't been the same team since their bye week.

Cowboys @ Packers
This was the Packers' defense playing lights-out, setting up the offense with a 1st-and-goal for their second touchdown, and turning away the Cowboys on their last chance to answer. This was easily the Packers' most impressive defensive stand since last year's week 11 game against the Bears. If the Packers (and particularly the defense) can maintain that level of play, they should have a real chance at one of the wildcard spots in the playoffs.

Jaguars @ Jets
As observed before, to beat the Jaguars, you really have to stop Maurice Jones-Drew. And on the Jets side, Sanchez, with 2 interceptions, continues to look more like a good-but-rookie quarterback.

Falcons @ Panthers
The Falcons are now just 1-4 on the road this season, while Jake Delhomme has now gone 3 games without throwing an interception. At 4-5, the Panthers might be thinking about the playoffs now, but with games left against the Patriots, Vikings, and Saints, it's going to be tough for them to get past 8 wins.

Split Picks (APR 1-4, SRS 2-3, Line 3-2)

Chiefs (SRS) @ Raiders (APR, Line)
The Chiefs have now won 7 times in a row at Oakland. And the 2008 Lions want an asterisk next to their 0-16 record noting they never got to play the Chiefs or Raiders.

Eagles (APR, SRS) @ Chargers (Line)
What happened to the Eagles' defense? They haven't given up more than 20 points since their week 2 loss to the Saints.

Bengals (SRS) @ Steelers (APR, Line)
Does any team have a goal-line defense playing at a higher level than the Bengals right now? The Steelers had 4 drives into the red zone, and came away with field goals all 4 times. The Bengals have held their opponent to 14 or fewer points 5 times this season.

Patriots (SRS) @ Colts (APR, Line)
With the Colts down 17 points in the 4th quarter, I thought they were done. But then the Colts offense came alive (or the Patriots defense fell apart), and the Colts outscored the Patriots 21-3 In the final 14:18 of the game. Belichick is already being questioned for that late 4th-and-2 call. But after watching the Colts twice drive 79 yards in relatively short order, he had to seriously consider whether converting the 1st down as his only real chance of winning the game.

Bills (APR, SRS) @ Titans (Line)
Clearly something has lit a spark for the Titans, and they have now gone 3-0 with Vince Young as starting quarterback. But with the Texans, Cardinals, and Colts coming up, it will be very tough for them to win the next three.

Standings:

This Week Overall%
APR  7-882-4664.1%
SRS  8-780-4862.5%
Line  9-684-4465.6%
Unanimous 6-462-2472.1%

New power rankings, and Week 11 picks to come.

Sunday, November 15, 2009

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 11

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Official rankings will be added after they are published.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)Texas
BCS=3
10-08.4091
(LW × 1.057)
won by 33
at Baylor
2 (↑1)Alabama
BCS=2
10-07.2006
(LW × 1.105)
won by 28
at Mississippi-St
3 (↓1)Florida
BCS=1
10-06.6688
(LW × 0.965)
won by 10
at South-Carolina
4 (-)TCU
BCS=4
10-06.2829
(LW × 1.073)
won by 27
vs Utah
5 (↑6)Oklahoma6-45.7179
(LW × 1.139)
won by 55
vs Texas-A&M
6 (↑3)Georgia-Tech
BCS=7
10-15.6265
(LW × 1.043)
won by 39
at Duke
7 (↑3)Oklahoma-St
BCS=12
8-25.5837
(LW × 1.092)
won by 7
vs Texas-Tech
8 (↓3)Ohio-St
BCS=10
9-25.4061
(LW × 0.946)
won by 3
vs Iowa
9 (↓2)Virginia-Tech
BCS=15
7-35.3114
(LW × 0.972)
won by 27
at Maryland
10 (↓2)Oregon
BCS=11
8-25.3028
(LW × 0.971)
won by 23
vs Arizona-St
11 (↑6)Arkansas6-45.2037
(LW × 1.105)
won by 36
vs Troy
12 (↑19)Mississippi7-35.1313
(LW × 1.319)
won by 25
vs Tennessee
13 (↑14)Stanford
BCS=17
7-35.0016
(LW × 1.241)
won by 34
at USC
14 (↑8)Nebraska7-34.9776
(LW × 1.096)
won by 14
at Kansas
15 (↓9)Texas-Tech6-44.9617
(LW × 0.888)
lost by 7
at Oklahoma-St
16 (↓4)Clemson
BCS=23
7-34.8839
(LW × 1.003)
won by 20
at NC-State
17 (↓4)Cincinnati
BCS=5
10-04.8759
(LW × 1.007)
won by 3
vs West-Virginia
18 (↑1)Boise-St
BCS=6
10-04.7745
(LW × 1.028)
won by 38
vs Idaho
19 (↑1)Pittsburgh
BCS=9
9-14.6064
(LW × 0.998)
won by 5
vs Notre-Dame
20 (↑8)Oregon-St
BCS=19
7-34.5583
(LW × 1.133)
won by 27
vs Washington
21 (↓6)Miami-FL
BCS=20
7-34.4603
(LW × 0.938)
lost by 9
at North-Carolina
22 (↓8)Penn-St
BCS=14
9-24.4551
(LW × 0.930)
won by 11
vs Indiana
23 (↓5)Iowa
BCS=13
9-24.3466
(LW × 0.924)
lost by 3
at Ohio-St
24 (↑16)Missouri6-44.2133
(LW × 1.287)
won by 26
at Kansas-St
25 (↓4)LSU
BCS=8
8-24.2085
(LW × 0.926)
won by 8
vs Louisiana-Tech
26 (↓10)Texas-A&M5-54.0718
(LW × 0.864)
lost by 55
at Oklahoma
27 (↑7)North-Carolina7-34.0401
(LW × 1.068)
won by 9
vs Miami-FL
28 (↓2)Auburn7-43.9847
(LW × 0.980)
lost by 7
at Georgia
29 (↑13)Nevada7-33.9264
(LW × 1.243)
won by 38
vs Fresno-St
30 (↓5)Tennessee5-53.8780
(LW × 0.941)
lost by 25
at Mississippi

Other notable teams:
31 (↓2)Wisconsin
BCS=16
8-23.8590
(LW × 0.977)
won by 21
vs Michigan
32 (↓9)USC
BCS=18
7-33.8291
(LW × 0.894)
lost by 34
vs Stanford
33 (↓3)Arizona6-33.7607
(LW × 0.963)
lost by 8
at California
34 (↓10)Houston
BCS=24
8-23.7580
(LW × 0.903)
lost by 5
at UCF
42 (↓6)BYU
BCS=22
8-23.2405
(LW × 0.950)
won by 5
at New-Mexico
43 (↑9)California
BCS=25
7-33.2379
(LW × 1.086)
won by 8
vs Arizona
45 (↓4)Utah
BCS=21
8-23.1467
(LW × 0.983)
lost by 27
at TCU

Comments:

  • This ranking doesn't include the East Carolina (#67) @ Tulsa (#80) scheduled for Sunday night.

  • Will the BCS ever drop Florida out of #1 if they remain unbeaten? They sure don't seem as dominant as they were last year.

  • USC actually drops out of APR's top 30. They just got smoked by Stanford, and can't be all that sure at this point they can beat Arizona to close out their schedule.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

NFL Week 10 Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com.

Picks for week 10.

GameAPRSRSLine
New Orleans Saints @
St. Louis Rams
Saints
ρ=5.5937
Saints
δ=38.29
Saints
-14
Detroit Lions @
Minnesota Vikings
Vikings
ρ=3.5096
Vikings
δ=18.66
Vikings
-16½
Denver Broncos @
Washington Redskins
Broncos
ρ=3.4228
Broncos
δ=16.38
Broncos
-4
Baltimore Ravens @
Cleveland Browns
Ravens
ρ=2.3677
Ravens
δ=21.99
Ravens
-11
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @
Miami Dolphins
Dolphins
ρ=2.1582
Dolphins
δ=17.51
Dolphins
-10
Dallas Cowboys @
Green Bay Packers
Cowboys
ρ=2.1481
Cowboys
δ=7.39
Cowboys
-3
Seattle Seahawks @
Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=1.9792
Cardinals
δ=6.93
Cardinals
-8½
Jacksonville Jaguars @
New York Jets
Jets
ρ=1.4287
Jets
δ=17.94
Jets
-6½
Kansas City Chiefs @
Oakland Raiders
Raiders
ρ=1.2147
Chiefs
δ=2.35
Raiders
-2
Philadelphia Eagles @
San Diego Chargers
Eagles
ρ=1.1696
Eagles
δ=3.18
Chargers
-2½
Cincinnati Bengals @
Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.1493
Bengals
δ=2.78
Steelers
-7
Atlanta Falcons @
Carolina Panthers
Falcons
ρ=1.1401
Falcons
δ=12.03
Falcons
-1½
Chicago Bears @
San Francisco 49ers
49ers
ρ=1.0604
49ers
δ=1.72
49ers
-3
New England Patriots @
Indianapolis Colts
Colts
ρ=1.0488
Patriots
δ=5.75
Colts
-3
Buffalo Bills @
Tennessee Titans
Bills
ρ=1.0238
Bills
δ=5.68
Titans
-6½
Bye: Houston Texans, New York Giants

Comments:

  • Thursday night games begin this week with Bears @ 49ers. Be sure to get your picks in!

  • If the Falcons beat the Panthers this week, it will be just the second road win for them this season.

  • I wish I had grounds to argue picking against the Packers. But the only surprise is that the Cowboys are just a 3-point favorite.

  • I think the line is giving the Chargers too much credit for their last-second win over the fading Giants. Unless the Eagles' offense goes back into hibernation, they should win easily.

  • The Titans' power index has more than doubled in the last two weeks. If they really have turned things around, they should have a real chance to beat the Bills.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

NFL Week 9 Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For Week 9

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)New Orleans
Saints
8-06.9561
(LW × 0.948)
won by 10
vs Panthers
2 (-)Indianapolis
Colts
8-05.4116
(LW × 1.047)
won by 3
vs Texans
3 (↑1)New England
Patriots
6-25.1596
(LW × 1.076)
won by 10
vs Dolphins
4 (↑8)Pittsburgh
Steelers
6-25.1344
(LW × 1.306)
won by 18
at Broncos
5 (-)Dallas
Cowboys
6-24.7920
(LW × 1.025)
won by 4
at Eagles
6 (↑5)Arizona
Cardinals
5-34.5218
(LW × 1.110)
won by 20
at Bears
7 (↑3)Cincinnati
Bengals
6-24.4674
(LW × 1.069)
won by 10
vs Ravens
8 (↓5)Denver
Broncos
6-24.4331
(LW × 0.900)
lost by 18
vs Steelers
9 (↓2)Houston
Texans
5-44.3595
(LW × 0.991)
lost by 3
at Colts
10 (↑3)New York
Jets
4-43.9842
(LW × 1.033)
Bye
11 (↓3)Atlanta
Falcons
5-33.9313
(LW × 0.919)
won by 14
vs Redskins
12 (↓6)Baltimore
Ravens
4-43.8260
(LW × 0.852)
lost by 10
at Bengals
13 (↓4)Minnesota
Vikings
7-13.7870
(LW × 0.902)
Bye
14 (↑1)Philadelphia
Eagles
5-33.5376
(LW × 1.017)
lost by 4
vs Cowboys
15 (↑1)Carolina
Panthers
3-53.4483
(LW × 1.091)
lost by 10
at Saints
16 (↓2)Miami
Dolphins
3-53.4186
(LW × 0.945)
lost by 10
at Patriots
17 (↑2)Buffalo
Bills
3-53.1183
(LW × 1.078)
Bye
18 (↑6)Tennessee
Titans
2-63.0458
(LW × 1.236)
won by 7
at 49ers
19 (↓1)San Diego
Chargers
5-33.0246
(LW × 1.028)
won by 1
at Giants
20 (↑1)Jacksonville
Jaguars
4-42.7886
(LW × 1.011)
won by 3
vs Chiefs
21 (↓4)San Francisco
49ers
3-52.7645
(LW × 0.902)
lost by 7
vs Titans
22 (↑1)New York
Giants
5-42.6538
(LW × 1.002)
lost by 1
vs Chargers
23 (↓3)Chicago
Bears
4-42.6070
(LW × 0.942)
lost by 20
vs Cardinals
24 (↑1)Seattle
Seahawks
3-52.2846
(LW × 1.027)
won by 12
vs Lions
25 (↓3)Green Bay
Packers
4-42.2309
(LW × 0.837)
lost by 10
at Buccaneers
26 (-)Oakland
Raiders
2-61.7079
(LW × 1.003)
Bye
27 (-)Cleveland
Browns
1-71.6160
(LW × 1.016)
Bye
28 (↑4)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
1-71.5840
(LW × 1.530)
won by 10
vs Packers
29 (↓1)Kansas City
Chiefs
1-71.4060
(LW × 1.060)
lost by 3
at Jaguars
30 (-)Washington
Redskins
2-61.2952
(LW × 1.086)
lost by 14
at Falcons
31 (↓2)St. Louis
Rams
1-71.2436
(LW × 0.964)
Bye
32 (↓1)Detroit
Lions
1-71.0790
(LW × 0.950)
lost by 12
at Seahawks

Comments

  • The Saints are way above even the #2 Colts. For what it's worth, this is similar to how the Patriots' power ranking went in 2007 when they went 16-0 in the regular season. The Patriots also had an easy schedule that year, too.

  • Thanks to a 5-0 win streak, capped with an impressive road win over the Broncos, the Steelers are ranked above #11 for the first time this year.

  • The Cardinals bounce back to #6. Other than the Vikings in week 13, they have a pretty soft schedule; 6 more wins is not out of reach for them.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Vikings (+10)
With the 49ers and Packers fading down the stretch, the roster of teams that the Vikings have beat is starting to look a little thin.

Packers (+9)
I didn't see the Packers as a #12 team last week, and after an inexcusable loss to the formerly 0-7 Buccaneers, I don't really see them at #16, either.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Jets (-8)
With wins over the Patriots, Texans, and newly-resurgant Titans, the Jets do have some interesting wins to their credit. The bad news is, the Jets have a lot of tough opponents left to play, and the defense really needs to step up if they're going to have a chance to win.

Monday, November 9, 2009

NFL Week 9 Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for week 9.

Unanimous picks (5-3)

Correctly picked:

Redskins @ Falcons
Panthers @ Saints
Lions @ Seahawks
Dolphins @ Patriots
Texans @ Colts

Not so much:

Packers @ Buccaneers
A terrible day for the o-line. Rodgers threw two back-breaker interceptions. A disaster on special teams. A mediocre day for the defense. Just an ugly, ugly game, and an embarrassing loss for a team that looked almost assured of a playoff berth just two weeks ago.

Ravens @ Bengals
Apparently the Ravens defense was asleep for the Bengals' first three drives. They drove 73, 80, and 75 yards, scoring all 17 points. That might not have been a deal-breaker, except the Ravens' offense only had one drive go further than 35 yards.

Titans @ 49ers
Those 3 interceptions should be jogging some memories in San Fransisco as to why Alex Smith was originally benched in the first place. And for a game that was close well into the fourth quarter, how does Frank Gore only have 15 carries? As for the Titans—somehow Vince Young had 172 yards on just 12 completions, and Chris Johnson had 135 yards on 25 carries. Where was that team the first 6 games?

Split Picks (APR 4-1, SRS 3-2, Line 2-3)

Chiefs (SRS) @ Jaguars (APR, Line)
SRS probably liked the Chiefs since they don't have as many big-time losses as the Jaguars. But the Jaguars have a running game, and combined for 153 yards on the ground, while the Chiefs managed only 60 yards. Still, this was another game where the Chiefs were at least competitive to the end.

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Bears (Line)
The Bears' defense just couldn't get a stop. The Cardinals scored four touchdowns and a couple field goals their first 6 drives. The Bears managed to make it interesting in the 4th quarter, but Kurt Warner came back in for a fifth touchdown to seal the win.

Chargers (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)
Near the end of the game, the Giants were up by 3, and had 1st and goal at the Chargers' 4 yard line. In a situation where a touchdown likely would've sealed the win, the Giants offense couldn't get it done, and they settled for a field goal and a 6-point lead. On the ensuing drive, when the Giants defense desperately needed a stop, the Chargers never face a 3rd down play.

Cowboys (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)
The Eagles played reasonably well. They did have some calls go against them, but it mostly seemed to me that the Cowboys just played a better game.

Steelers (Line) @ Broncos (APR, SRS)
The Steelers are noticeably better when Troy Palomalu takes the field. And until these last two games, the Broncos haven't really faced the NFL's most dominant defenses.

Standings:

This Week Overall%
APR  9-475-3866.4%
SRS  8-572-4163.7%
Line  7-675-3866.4%
Unanimous 5-356-2073.7%

New power rankings, and Week 10 picks to come.

Sunday, November 8, 2009

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 10

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Official rankings will be added after they are published.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)Texas
BCS=3
9-07.9381
(LW × 0.974)
won by 32
vs UCF
2 (-)Florida
BCS=1
9-06.9071
(LW × 0.893)
won by 24
vs Vanderbilt
3 (-)Alabama
BCS=2
9-06.5171
(LW × 0.967)
won by 9
vs LSU
4 (↑1)TCU
BCS=4
9-05.8434
(LW × 1.021)
won by 43
at San-Diego-St
5 (↑10)Ohio-St
BCS=11
8-25.7131
(LW × 1.208)
won by 17
at Penn-St
6 (-)Texas-Tech6-35.5817
(LW × 0.977)
Bye
7 (↓3)Oregon
BCS=13
7-25.4728
(LW × 0.832)
lost by 9
at Stanford
8 (↑2)Virginia-Tech
BCS=21
6-35.4657
(LW × 1.023)
won by 13
at East-Carolina
9 (↓2)Georgia-Tech
BCS=7
9-15.3924
(LW × 0.947)
won by 3
vs Wake-Forest
10 (↑10)Oklahoma-St
BCS=19
7-25.1009
(LW × 1.143)
won by 26
at Iowa-St
11 (↓3)Oklahoma5-45.0168
(LW × 0.912)
lost by 7
at Nebraska
12 (↑11)Clemson6-34.8678
(LW × 1.124)
won by 16
vs Florida-St
13 (↑1)Cincinnati
BCS=5
9-04.8454
(LW × 0.985)
won by 2
vs Connecticut
14 (↓1)Penn-St
BCS=18
8-24.7899
(LW × 0.961)
lost by 17
vs Ohio-St
15 (↑10)Miami-FL
BCS=14
7-24.7516
(LW × 1.120)
won by 35
vs Virginia
16 (↓4)Arkansas5-44.7078
(LW × 0.927)
won by 17
vs South-Carolina
17 (↓6)Texas-A&M5-44.7042
(LW × 0.881)
lost by 1
at Colorado
18 (↓9)Iowa
BCS=10
9-14.7017
(LW × 0.862)
lost by 7
vs Northwestern
19 (↓2)Boise-St
BCS=6
9-04.6724
(LW × 1.023)
won by 10
at Louisiana-Tech
20 (↓2)Pittsburgh
BCS=12
8-14.6166
(LW × 1.016)
won by 27
vs Syracuse
21 (↓5)LSU
BCS=8
7-24.5407
(LW × 0.968)
lost by 9
at Alabama
22 (↑6)Nebraska6-34.5304
(LW × 1.141)
won by 7
vs Oklahoma
23 (↓4)USC
BCS=9
7-24.2943
(LW × 0.951)
won by 5
at Arizona-St
24 (-)Houston
BCS=15
8-14.1572
(LW × 0.974)
won by 1
at Tulsa
25 (↓3)Tennessee5-44.1195
(LW × 0.943)
won by 28
vs Memphis
26 (↓5)Auburn7-34.0647
(LW × 0.922)
won by 32
vs Furman
27 (↑12)Stanford6-34.0476
(LW × 1.179)
won by 9
vs Oregon
28 (↑5)Oregon-St
BCS=23
6-34.0306
(LW × 1.155)
won by 17
at California
29 (-)Wisconsin
BCS=20
7-23.9499
(LW × 1.002)
won by 3
at Indiana
30 (-)Arizona
BCS=17
6-23.9091
(LW × 0.993)
won by 41
vs Washington-St

Other Notable Teams:
32 (-)West-Virginia
BCS=25
7-13.8190
(LW × 0.982)
won by 8
vs Louisville
38 (↑9)BYU
BCS=22
7-23.3989
(LW × 1.110)
won by 52
at Wyoming
41 (-)Utah
BCS=16
8-13.2069
(LW × 0.954)
won by 31
vs New-Mexico
50 (↓1)South-Florida
BCS=24
5-23.0157
(LW × 0.994)
Bye

Comments:

  • This ranking doesn't include the Nevada @ San Jose St. game, scheduled for Sunday night. But since both teams are down in the weeds, it shouldn't be a big deal.

  • A lot of upsets this week, though I can't say I'm exactly surprised Iowa or Cal lost.

  • USC's offense struggled mightily against ASU's defense. Their scoring consisted of a pick-6 and one (1) 75-yard touchdown play. The only other time they were even in field-goal range was off another interception (the FG attempt fell short). If they don't get better offensive production, USC will be in real danger of more losses this season.

Thursday, November 5, 2009

NFL Week 9 Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Picks for week 9.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com.

GameAPRSRSLine
Washington Redskins @
Atlanta Falcons
Falcons
ρ=3.5852
Falcons
δ=21.65
Falcons
-10
Green Bay Packers @
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Packers
ρ=2.5736
Packers
δ=18.58
Packers
-10
Carolina Panthers @
New Orleans Saints
Saints
ρ=2.3224
Saints
δ=25.66
Saints
-13½
Kansas City Chiefs @
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars
ρ=2.0797
Chiefs
δ=0.48
Jaguars
-6½
Detroit Lions @
Seattle Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.9587
Seahawks
δ=9.83
Seahawks
-10
Arizona Cardinals @
Chicago Bears
Cardinals
ρ=1.4709
Cardinals
δ=0.39
Bears
-3
Dallas Cowboys @
Philadelphia Eagles
Cowboys
ρ=1.3448
Cowboys
δ=1.78
Eagles
-3
Miami Dolphins @
New England Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.3252
Patriots
δ=7.93
Patriots
-10½
Pittsburgh Steelers @
Denver Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.2530
Broncos
δ=6.27
Steelers
-3
Tennessee Titans @
San Francisco 49ers
49ers
ρ=1.2439
49ers
δ=13.46
49ers
-4
Houston Texans @
Indianapolis Colts
Colts
ρ=1.1751
Colts
δ=8.97
Colts
-9
San Diego Chargers @
New York Giants
Chargers
ρ=1.1109
Chargers
δ=1.52
Giants
-4½
Baltimore Ravens @
Cincinnati Bengals
Ravens
ρ=1.0739
Ravens
δ=4.03
Ravens
-3
Bye: Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Minnesota Vikings, New York Jets, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams

Comments:

  • Yeah, that's how bad the Lions have been that they're not even favored to beat the Seahawks. Though it sounds like Calvin Johnson might be back, and he makes it a lot easier for Matt Stafford to find an open receiver.

  • Can the Cardinals get back to their old run-stopping ways? The Bears' 26th-ranked rushing offense should show whether the Cardinals have been exposed, or just had a (very) bad game.

  • So, will that be Cowboys @ lost-to-Raiders, barely-beat-Redskins Eagles, or will it be Cowboys @ blew-out-Giants Eagles? Knowing would make picking that game so much easier.

  • The Steelers are doing a lot better now that they've got Troy Polamalu back. But the Steelers got a nasty surprise the last time they played a prime-time game in Denver.

  • It seems like an odd thing to say about a 5-3 team, but this really is a must-win game for the Giants. As I mentioned previously, it doesn't get easier for them any time soon.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

NFL Strength Of Remaining Schedule, Q2

2009 Navigation Links

Strength of remaining Schedule, Q1 (which tells how this was computed)

As usual, higher index values represent better teams, so a higher value here means a more difficult schedule.

RankTeamW-LStrength of
Schedule
1Carolina Panthers3-44.3456
2Tampa Bay Buccaneers0-74.3061
3New England Patriots5-24.0906
4Washington Redskins2-54.0740
5Indianapolis Colts7-03.8874
6St. Louis Rams1-73.8011
7New York Giants5-33.6067
8New York Jets4-43.5338
9Buffalo Bills3-53.5337
10Philadelphia Eagles5-23.4641
11Houston Texans5-33.4365
12Jacksonville Jaguars3-43.4132
13Miami Dolphins3-43.3594
14Kansas City Chiefs1-63.3173
15Tennessee Titans1-63.2975
16Oakland Raiders2-63.2894
17Detroit Lions1-63.2508
18Pittsburgh Steelers5-23.2210
19Chicago Bears4-33.1773
20Green Bay Packers4-33.0444
21Baltimore Ravens4-33.0086
22Atlanta Falcons4-32.9599
23Dallas Cowboys5-22.9598
24San Diego Chargers4-32.9429
25Minnesota Vikings7-12.8700
26Cleveland Browns1-72.8087
27Cincinnati Bengals5-22.7977
28New Orleans Saints7-02.7356
29Seattle Seahawks2-52.7032
30Denver Broncos6-12.6358
31San Francisco 49ers3-42.5396
32Arizona Cardinals4-32.3448

Comments:

  • It's not to early to talk about a first-round bye for the Saints: Football Outsiders' playoff odds give a combined probability of 88.5% the Saints will have the #1 or #2 seed. (Note these numbers are updated weekly, so if you look after Sunday, you will certainly see different results.)

  • Football Outsiders' has the Colts as heavy favorites for a first-round bye as well. But they still have to play the Patriots, Ravens, Broncos, as well as the upstart Texans.

  • Not that long ago the Giants were in control of their division. Now, after an 0-3 stretch, with a very tough schedule left to play, it could be very tough for them. Football Outsiders gives them a 41.4% chance to make the playoffs; I think that might be overly generous.

  • The Browns are giving the Raiders a run for their money as the most disfunctional NFL franchise. Even with one of the easiest remaining schedules, I wonder if they can win another game. And speaking of the Browns and Raiders, the "Avert Your Eyes Bowl" takes place week 16 in Cleveland.

  • The Cardinals and 49ers both have a very easy remaining schedule. The battle for the NFC West could come down to their week 14 matchup.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

NFL Week 8 Power Rankings

Updated: Scroll down for APR vs. ESPN

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For Week 7

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)New Orleans
Saints
7-07.3385
(LW × 1.151)
won by 8
vs Falcons
2 (-)Indianapolis
Colts
7-05.1705
(LW × 1.000)
won by 4
vs 49ers
3 (-)Denver
Broncos
6-14.9271
(LW × 0.973)
lost by 23
at Ravens
4 (↑2)New England
Patriots
5-24.7948
(LW × 1.276)
Bye
5 (↑2)Dallas
Cowboys
5-24.6755
(LW × 1.272)
won by 21
vs Seahawks
6 (↑14)Baltimore
Ravens
4-34.4893
(LW × 1.794)
won by 23
vs Broncos
7 (↑3)Houston
Texans
5-34.4001
(LW × 1.274)
won by 21
at Bills
8 (↓3)Atlanta
Falcons
4-34.2771
(LW × 1.130)
lost by 8
at Saints
9 (↑3)Minnesota
Vikings
7-14.2006
(LW × 1.313)
won by 12
at Packers
10 (↓2)Cincinnati
Bengals
5-24.1805
(LW × 1.138)
Bye
11 (↓7)Arizona
Cardinals
4-34.0727
(LW × 0.876)
lost by 13
vs Panthers
12 (↓1)Pittsburgh
Steelers
5-23.9322
(LW × 1.154)
Bye
13 (↓4)New York
Jets
4-43.8580
(LW × 1.094)
lost by 5
vs Dolphins
14 (-)Miami
Dolphins
3-43.6181
(LW × 1.227)
won by 5
at Jets
15 (↑8)Philadelphia
Eagles
5-23.4768
(LW × 1.794)
won by 23
vs Giants
16 (↑11)Carolina
Panthers
3-43.1599
(LW × 2.727)
won by 13
at Cardinals
17 (↓4)San Francisco
49ers
3-43.0663
(LW × 1.028)
lost by 4
at Colts
18 (↑1)San Diego
Chargers
4-32.9436
(LW × 1.164)
won by 8
vs Raiders
19 (↑3)Buffalo
Bills
3-52.8927
(LW × 1.250)
lost by 21
vs Texans
20 (↓2)Chicago
Bears
4-32.7689
(LW × 1.095)
won by 24
vs Browns
21 (↓4)Jacksonville
Jaguars
3-42.7594
(LW × 1.061)
lost by 17
at Titans
22 (↓7)Green Bay
Packers
4-32.6640
(LW × 0.940)
lost by 12
vs Vikings
23 (↓7)New York
Giants
5-32.6497
(LW × 1.004)
lost by 23
at Eagles
24 (↑2)Tennessee
Titans
1-62.4652
(LW × 1.782)
won by 17
vs Jaguars
25 (↓4)Seattle
Seahawks
2-52.2241
(LW × 0.957)
lost by 21
at Cowboys
26 (↓1)Oakland
Raiders
2-61.7024
(LW × 1.201)
lost by 8
at Chargers
27 (↓3)Cleveland
Browns
1-71.5912
(LW × 1.039)
lost by 24
at Bears
28 (↑1)Kansas City
Chiefs
1-61.3268
(LW × 1.275)
Bye
29 (↑1)St. Louis
Rams
1-71.2895
(LW × 1.270)
won by 7
at Lions
30 (↑1)Washington
Redskins
2-51.1930
(LW × 1.416)
Bye
31 (↓3)Detroit
Lions
1-61.1355
(LW × 0.989)
lost by 7
vs Rams
32 (-)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
0-71.0351
(LW × 1.402)
Bye

Comments

  • The Broncos lose by 23 points, but don't fall much because a) it's on the road, and b) every team they beat increased in power this week (with the Patriots and Cowboys up big).

  • Compare to the Giants, who actually increased (a very little bit) on their 23 point loss. But the benefit from increases by the Cowboys (and others) offsets the loss.

  • The behavior of this new margin function seems kind of weird. Are the Texans really a top-10 team? Hard to make the case that they're better than the Vikings, or Bengals, or Steelers.

  • With the Titans and Rams winning this week, the Buccaneers are the only 0-fer team left. The lowest ranked teams left on their schedule are the Panthers (#16), Packers (#22) and Seahawks (#25).

  • On the other side, the Saints and Colts are the only remaining undefeated teams. The Colts have one of the hardest remaining schedules, and the Saints one of the easiest. (More on this later in the week).

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Packers (+10)
The Packers are my team, and I wish I could agree with ESPN and rank them #12. But their wins have come against the Rams, Lions, and Browns, with their week 1 win against the Bears the closest they have to a quality win. Hopefully they'll do better against some teams a little softer than the Vikings, but until then, it's hard to rank them much higher than the #22 that APR gives them.

Giants (+8)
The Giants manage to look worse and worse every week. ESPN doesn't have the Giants in their top 10 anymore, but now APR has them in the bottom 10. And with the Chargers, Falcons, Broncos, and Cowboys coming up, the Giants season could be over already.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Texans (-7)
After a tough start, the Texans have racked up a solid string of wins, and are now at 5-3. They've also got a real shot at their first-ever winning season. I'm not sure that's worth a top-10 ranking, though.

Panthers (-7)
One of the oddities of the new margin system is that one good win can really move a team up a long ways, as evidenced by the Panthers' 11-spot jump this week. If they can sustain that same level in the running game they showed against the Cardinals, it'll be worth it.

Monday, November 2, 2009

NFL Week 8 Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for week 8.

Unanimous picks (6-3)

Correctly picked:

Raiders @ Chargers
49ers @ Colts
Falcons @ Saints
Browns @ Bears
Seahawks @ Cowboys
Texans @ Bills

Not so much:

Panthers @ Cardinals
The Cardinals struggle when their defense struggles. And somehow, the Panthers figured out how to get 270 yards rushing on the Cardinals (formerly #1) rushing defense. Jake Delhomme had an underwhelming game (7/14 for 90yds and a TD), but with that kind of a rushing game, he didn't need to do any better.

Dolphins @ Jets
If the Jets' special teams could cover kickoffs... if they could've held Ted Ginn to just one runback for a touchdown, they probably win the game.

Rams @ Lions
The Rams do have (at least) one bright spot: Stephen Jackson is a very good running back. And at least once or twice a season, that's all it takes for the Rams to get a win.

Split Picks (APR 1-3, SRS 0-4, Line 3-1)

Jaguars (APR, SRS) @ Titans (Line)
The Titans seem to have remembered how they used to win games: play strong defense, run the ball, and mostly rely on the quarterback to not screw things up.

Broncos (APR, SRS) @ Ravens (Line)
The Ranvens remembered how they used to win games with defense, too. If they can keep up that level of play, they'll be right back in the playoff chase.

Giants (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)
When the Eagles' offense is on, they can play with any team in the League. The only question is how to figure out when that's going to happen. As for the Giants, how bad is Manning's foot injury? His completion rates in the last three games are all below 50%, which will make it hard to win agaisnt anybody.

Vikings (APR) @ Packers (SRS, Line)
This just in: Favre can still play at a high level. Add him to Adrian Peterson, and the Vikings defense, and you have a dominating team. The Packers have a lot of good players, and managed to make a game of it after falling behind 24-3, didn't have enough to pull out a win.

Standings:

This Week Overall%
APR 7-666-3466.0%
SRS 6-764-3664.0%
Line 9-468-3268.0%
Unanimous6-351-1775.0%

New power rankings, and Week 9 picks to come.