Read
this for a description of APR.
Read this
for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com, except for Steelers @ Ravens and Cardinals @ Titans, which are taken from footballlocks.com.
Picks for week 12.
| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
| Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals | Bengals ρ=3.3301 | Bengals δ=18.35 | Bengals -14 |
| Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions | Packers ρ=2.5861 | Packers δ=15.64 | Packers -10 |
| Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings | Vikings ρ=1.9599 | Vikings δ=9.78 | Vikings -10½ |
| Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers | Chargers ρ=1.8679 | Chargers δ=13.27 | Chargers -13½ |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons | Falcons ρ=1.7737 | Falcons δ=14.83 | Falcons -11½ |
| Oakland Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys | Cowboys ρ=1.6980 | Cowboys δ=15.18 | Cowboys -13½ |
| Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles | Eagles ρ=1.6684 | Eagles δ=11.09 | Eagles -9 |
| Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans | Colts ρ=1.4399 | Colts δ=9.86 | Colts -3½ |
| Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills | Dolphins ρ=1.3565 | Dolphins δ=10.91 | Dolphins -3 |
| Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams | Seahawks ρ=1.3169 | Seahawks δ=10.42 | Seahawks -3 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers | Jaguars ρ=1.3132 | 49ers δ=6.16 | 49ers -3 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens | Steelers ρ=1.1383 | Ravens δ=5.05 | Ravesn -2½ |
| Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans | Cardinals ρ=1.1266 | Cardinals δ=8.10 | Titans -2½ |
| New York Giants @ Denver Broncos | Broncos ρ=1.1160 | Giants δ=3.18 | Giants -6½ |
| New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints | Saints ρ=1.0994 | Patriots δ=0.25 | Saints -3 |
| Carolina Panthers @ New York Jets | Jets ρ=1.0298 | Jets δ=7.57 | Jets -3 |
Comments:
The Packers are favored to win on Thursday. But playing at the Lions on Thanksgiving is a notoriously hard win, and the Packers must play the rest of the season without Al Harris and Aaron Kampman. It doesn't look to be as easy as the Packers 26-0 win over the Lions in week 6.
The Cowboys have barely scored 7 points in each of their last two games. They're going to need better production out of their offense to make the playoffs, starting with the vising Raiders on Thursday afternoon.
The final Thursday game, Giants @ Broncos, features two teams both in desperate need of a win to stay in the playoff hunt. The Broncos choices for quarterback are an injured Kyle Orton, an ineffective Chris Simms, or an inexperienced rookie Tom Brandstater. About the only thing the Broncos can count on is the thinness of that mile-high air slowing down the Giants.
The Jaguars have made it to 6-4, but they've been picking off a lot of weak teams (including the Rams, Chiefs, Jets, and Bills) If the 49ers's 6th-ranked run defense can stop Maurice Jones-Drew, they should have a good chance at beating the Jaguars on Sunday.
