This is the time of the year where, among other things, people try to make predictions about what teams are going to the Super Bowl next February. Something that occurred to me recently is reversing this question: can we say anything about what teams aren't going to the Super Bowl, based, say, on their win-loss records from last year?
Based on that, I put together the following table of Super Bowl winners, along with their record from the season before, and what (if anything) they did in the postseason. Here's the result:
SB | Winner | W-L-T prev Year | prev year | Result prev Year |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Packers | 10-3-1 | 1965 | won NFL CG |
2 | Packers | 12-2 | 1966 | won NFL CG, SB |
3 | Jets | 8-5-1 | 1967 | out of playoffs |
4 | Cheifs | 12-2 | 1968 | lost to Raiders in DV |
5 | Colts | 8-5-1 | 1969 | out of playoffs |
6 | Cowboys | 10-4 | 1970 | lost to Colts in SB |
7 | Dolphins | 10-3-1 | 1971 | lost to Cowboys in SB |
8 | Dolphins | 14-0 | 1972 | won SB |
9 | Steelers | 10-4 | 1973 | lost to Raiders in DV |
10 | Steelers | 10-3-1 | 1974 | won SB |
11 | Raiders | 11-3 | 1975 | lost to Steelers in CG |
12 | Cowboys | 11-3 | 1976 | lost to Rams in DV |
13 | Steelers | 9-5 | 1977 | lost to Broncos in DV |
14 | Steelers | 14-2 | 1978 | won SB |
15 | Raiders | 9-7 | 1979 | out of playoffs |
16 | 49ers | 6-10 | 1980 | out of playoffs |
17 | Redskins | 8-8 | 1981 | out of playoffs |
18 | Raiders | 8-1 | 1982 | lost to Jets in DV |
19 | 49ers | 10-6 | 1983 | lost to Redskins in CG |
20 | Bears | 10-6 | 1984 | lost to 49ers in CG |
21 | Giants | 10-6 | 1985 | lost to Bears in DV |
22 | Redskins | 12-4 | 1986 | lost to Giants in CG |
23 | 49ers | 13-2 | 1987 | lost to Vikings in DV |
24 | 49ers | 10-6 | 1988 | won SB |
25 | Giants | 12-4 | 1989 | lost to Rams in DV |
26 | Redskins | 10-6 | 1990 | lost to 49ers in DV |
27 | Cowboys | 11-5 | 1991 | lost to Lions in DV |
28 | Cowboys | 13-3 | 1992 | won SB |
29 | 49ers | 10-6 | 1993 | lost to Cowboys in CG |
30 | Cowboys | 12-4 | 1994 | lost to 49ers in CG |
31 | Packers | 11-5 | 1995 | lost to Cowboys in DV |
32 | Broncos | 13-3 | 1996 | lost to Jags in DV |
33 | Broncos | 12-4 | 1997 | won SB |
34 | Rams | 4-12 | 1998 | out of playoffs |
35 | Ravens | 8-8 | 1999 | out of playoffs |
36 | Patriots | 5-11 | 2000 | out of playoffs |
37 | Buccaneers | 9-7 | 2001 | lost to Eagles in WC |
38 | Patriots | 9-7 | 2002 | out of playoffs |
39 | Patriots | 14-2 | 2003 | Won SB |
40 | Steelers | 15-1 | 2004 | lost to Pats in CG |
41 | Colts | 14-2 | 2005 | lost to Steelers in DV |
42 | Giants | 8-8 | 2006 | lost to Eagles in WC |
43 | Steelers | 10-6 | 2007 | lost to Jags in WC |
44 | Saints | 8-8 | 2008 | out of playoffs |
45 | Packers | 11-5 | 2009 | lost to Cards in WC |
46 | Giants | 10-6 | 2010 | out of playoffs |
47 | Ravens | 12-4 | 2011 | lost to Pats in CG |
A number of things are worth observing from this table:
Even in the old, 14-game season days, it was pretty common for a Super Bowl winner to have had double-digit wins the previous year.
With three exceptions, nobody has gone from a losing season to winning the Super Bowl the following year.
- Besides a losing record, those three exceptions have another
point of correlation:
- 1981 was the first year Joe Montana started full-time for the 49ers
- In 1999, Kurt Warner took over as quarterback after Trent Green tore his ACL in a preseason game..
- In 2001, Drew Bledsoe was injured in week 2, making way for Tom Brady to take over that starting job.
So, if your team had double-digit losses last year, don't look for them to be hoisting the Lombardi trophy next February (unless you've got a Montana/Warner/Brady type guy waiting in the wings).
On the other hand, there's a handful of 7- and 8-loss teams there, so coming off a near-500 season isn't a total deal-breaker.
Also note that while many of Super Bowl winners made it at least to the divisional round the previous season, it's not also a deal-breaker to be coming off a season out of the playoffs.
In fact, if you look at the last 14 winners (going back to the Rams in Super Bowl 34), only 4 teams made it to the divisional round the previous season.
I'm not really sure what, if anything, that streak means. But if it's going to continue next February, your candidate group is: Steelers, Giants, Cowboys (at least 8 wins but out of the playoffs), and Bengals, Colts, Vikings, Redskins (lost in the Wildcard round).
I would say, of that group, the Giants, the Redskins (as long as RG3 stays healthy) and maybe the Steelers (if Roethlisberger and Polamalu can stay healthy) have the best chance to win out.
But, if you look at the teams that made it to the Divisional Round last year (Patriots, Broncos, Texans, Ravens, Falcons, 49ers, Packers, Seahawks), there's some pretty stiff competition. If I was going to pick this season's Super Bowl winner, I'd be hard pressed to go outside that group.