As usual, the "Projected Wins" value is used as a baseline, so a positive difference means the team exceeded their projected win value, a negative difference means they fell short.
Teams are sorted by the magnitude (absolute value) of the difference; teams that came close to their projected wins are near the top, teams farthest away from their projection are at the bottom.This is a follow-up to a post from last summer. See this post for background details.
|Cardinals||11||9.5||1.5||Carson Palmer was actually having a pretty good season before he got hurt.|
|Bills||9||6.7||2.3||Defense much better|
|Lions||11||8.5||2.5||Defense much better|
|Steelers||11||8.2||2.8||Le'Veon Bell? The Steelers definitely had a rollercoaster season...|
|Ravens||10||7.1||2.9||Flacco playing better|
|Saints||7||10.8||-3.8||Drew Brees did not have a good year, weak defense didn't help.|
|Cowboys||12||8.2||3.8||Defense better, running game|
|Panthers||7||11.6||-4.1||Defense struggled, offense wasn't able to take up the slack.|
|Packers||12||7.8||4.2||Rodgers plays whole season|
|Texans||9||4.2||4.8||Last year's team was probably not as bad as their record.|
|Titans||2||7.5||-5.5||Injuries. Also Ken Whisenhunt's resume as a HC is mostly pretty ugly when he doesn't have Kurt Warner as his starting QB.|
Four teams over the 4.0 threshold, but unlike last year, none over 5.5. Which gives a final scoring of 18 reasonably close, 10 moderately close, 4 wrong, and 0 "yikes".
Remember last year when I speculated that the Titans and Jets might have a chance to contend for a playoff spot? Yeah, leave us never speak of that again.
On a related note, it's been since 94-95 that the Lions have had back-to-back winning seasons, so it's probably advisable to hold off declaring the Lions have turned the corner. If they can come out and contend again in 2015, it'll be a solid sign that 2014 wasn't another fluke season for them like 2011 (and the first half of 2007).
The Texans rebounded pretty nicely from their 2-14 season, especially considering they started three different guys at quarterback. But I think they're gonna have to find a solid quarterback before they're gonna do much better than 9 wins.
The Saints have another tough season, but this time they can't blame it on the absence of Sean Payton. Maybe most surprising was 5 home losses for a team that had mostly done very well in the Superdome for many years.