NFL: Super Bowl Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Ravens @ 49ers (APR, SRS, Line)

Joe Flacco had a hot-and-cold regular season. In the 9 games he had a passer rating of 83 or better, the Ravens were 8-1. The problem was he had 7 games with a passer rating of 76.5 or worse, and the Ravens were 2-5 in those games (the two wins coming against the Chiefs and the Leftwich-lead Steelers).

In the playoffs, Flacco got on an amazing hot streak, passing for 1140 yards, 11 touchdowns, and a 117.1 passer rating. There defense wasn't really that amazing (including a couple games they gave up 31 or more points), but with Flacco playing lights out, they just needed to be "OK", and they were.

For the 49ers, defense has been an issue for a while now. In their first 13 games, the allowed an average of 14.2 points per game. Since then (and including the playoffs), they've allowed an average of 29.7 points per game—more than double the earlier average.

Colin Kaepernick I think did OK, including taking a team that was down by 3 scores in the 3rd quarter and getting them back into the game. There were some points in the game (including that interception and the 49ers final possession) where his inexperience showed. But this was a known factor going into the playoffs. I think if the 49ers defense had played as well as they had for their first 13 games, the Super Bowl never would've come down to one last drive to get a go-ahead touchdown.

Totals

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	0	-	1			6	-	5		54.5%
SRS	0	-	1			7	-	4		63.6%
Line	0	-	1			8	-	3		72.7%

Epilogue

That's it for the 2012 season. I'm kind of burned out on blogging about football right now, so I think I'm going to take a pass on the rest of the season wrap-up posts, and let fspi go dark for the off season.

I may do some off-season stuff in a few months if my interest rebounds, but if not, I'll be back in July with the Pythagorean Projection post for the upcoming season. Until then, thanks for reading, and I'll see you next fall.

NFL: Super Bowl Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Broncos	1.0815 (LW × 1.0138)	13-4	Bye
2 (↑2)	Ravens	1.0686 (LW × 1.0367)	14-6	Won by 3 @ 49ers
3 (↓1)	Seahawks	1.0557 (LW × 0.9960)	12-6	Bye
4 (↓1)	49ers	1.0348 (LW × 0.9830)	13-5-1	Lost by 3 vs Ravens
5 (↑1)	Bengals	0.9884 (LW × 1.0109)	10-7	Bye
6 (↓1)	Redskins	0.9869 (LW × 1.0083)	10-7	Bye
7 (-)	Patriots	0.9728 (LW × 1.0017)	13-5	Bye
8 (-)	Packers	0.9626 (LW × 0.9961)	12-6	Bye
9 (-)	Falcons	0.9574 (LW × 0.9989)	14-4	Bye
10 (-)	Giants	0.9458 (LW × 1.0073)	9-7	Bye
11 (-)	Panthers	0.9399 (LW × 1.0050)	7-9	Bye
12 (-)	Vikings	0.9253 (LW × 0.9968)	10-7	Bye
13 (↑1)	Steelers	0.9235 (LW × 1.0143)	8-8	Bye
14 (↓1)	Saints	0.9175 (LW × 1.0019)	7-9	Bye
15 (↑1)	Cowboys	0.9006 (LW × 1.0070)	8-8	Bye
16 (↓1)	Bears	0.8993 (LW × 0.9959)	10-6	Bye
17 (-)	Rams	0.8698 (LW × 0.9947)	7-8-1	Bye
18 (↑1)	Colts	0.8686 (LW × 1.0048)	11-6	Bye
19 (↓1)	Texans	0.8680 (LW × 1.0019)	13-5	Bye
20 (↑1)	Chargers	0.8627 (LW × 1.0104)	7-9	Bye
21 (↓1)	Buccaneers	0.8564 (LW × 1.0029)	7-9	Bye
22 (↑1)	Browns	0.8405 (LW × 1.0121)	5-11	Bye
23 (↓1)	Dolphins	0.8289 (LW × 0.9976)	7-9	Bye
24 (-)	Bills	0.7900 (LW × 0.9984)	6-10	Bye
25 (↑2)	Raiders	0.7783 (LW × 1.0098)	4-12	Bye
26 (↓1)	Lions	0.7740 (LW × 0.9977)	4-12	Bye
27 (↓1)	Titans	0.7708 (LW × 0.9998)	6-10	Bye
28 (-)	Jets	0.7663 (LW × 0.9992)	6-10	Bye
29 (-)	Cardinals	0.7518 (LW × 0.9941)	5-11	Bye
30 (-)	Eagles	0.7474 (LW × 1.0054)	4-12	Bye
31 (-)	Chiefs	0.7256 (LW × 1.0097)	2-14	Bye
32 (-)	Jaguars	0.6623 (LW × 0.9998)	2-14	Bye

Comments:

• The Ravens continue the recent theme that it doesn't matter if you have a bad regular season, if you can get hot in the playoffs.

• Hard to argue against Joe Flacco as MVP, especially if you consider the Ravens' playoff run as a whole. The Ravens scored at least 24 points in every one of their playoff games. And won, in spite of giving up 35 to the Broncos, and 31 to the 49ers.

• Thanks to the 49ers' 17-point 3rd quarter, the streak of Super Bowls within 1 score in the 4th quarter continues. (Bucs/Raiders was the last Super Bowl that was not.)

NFL: Super Bowl Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Ravens @ 49ers	49ers* ρ=1.0212	49ers δ=5.4	49ers -3½

Comments:

• The 49ers are the only team that has been to multiple Super Bowls and never lost. Of course, their last Super Bowl appearance was 18 years ago.

• The 49ers and Ravens played last year, in the Thanksgiving late game. Alex Smith was sacked 9 times, and the 49ers had 97 penalty yards.

• Everybody likes the 49ers. But the Ravens seem to be on a similar trajectory to last years Giants: they both had a pretty unremarkable regular season, squeaked into the playoffs, and then got on a hot streak.

• And with a couple impressive road victories in the playoffs, the Ravens seem to have shaken whatever problems they had last year playing away from home.

• The 49ers, on the other hand, haven't looked all that impressive away from Candlestick Park. 3 of their 4 losses have been on the road, including ugly breakdowns in Seattle and Minnesota.

• Meanwhile, Joe Flacco has been playing his best football of the season, including throwing 8 touchdowns and no interceptions for a 115 passer rating. The 49ers easily have the toughest defense the Ravens have faced in the playoffs,

• Given how the Ravens played in the regular season, it seems like an odd thing to say, but if the 49ers are to win the Super Bowl, they are going to have to do something the Colts, Broncos, and Patriots could not—slow down Joe Flacco, Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce.

NFL: A Brief History of the Playoffs by Team

Updated through Super Bowl XLVI

Team	Last In	Last Win	Last in SB	Last SB Win
Bills	1999	1995	1993
Browns	2002	1994
Raiders	2002	2002	2002	1983
Rams	2004	2004	2001	1999
Buccaneers	2007	2002	2002	2002
Jaguars	2007	2007
Dolphins	2008	2000	1984	1973
Titans	2008	2003	1999
Panthers	2008	2005	2003
Chargers	2009	2008	1994
Cowboys	2009	2009	1995	1995
Cardinals	2009	2009	2008
Chiefs	2010	1994	1969	1969
Eagles	2010	2008	2004
Jets	2010	2010	1968	1968
Bears	2010	2010	2006	1985
Lions	2011	1991
Steelers	2011	2010	2010	2008
Saints	2011	2011	2009	2009
Giants	2011	2011	2011	2011
Bengals	2012	1990	1988
Redskins	2012	2005	1991	1991
Vikings	2012	2009	1976
Colts	2012	2009	2009	2006
Broncos	2012	2011	1998	1998
Texans	2012	2012
Falcons	2012	2012	1998
Seahawks	2012	2012	2005
Packers	2012	2012	2010	2010
Patriots	2012	2012	2011	2004
49ers	2012	2012	2012	1994
Ravens	2012	2012	2012	2012

Comments:

• The years specified are for the season. In most cases, the corresponding game took place in the following calendar year.

• The last time the Chiefs won a playoff game, Joe Montana was their starting quarterback.

• The last time the Browns won a playoff game, Bill Bellichick was their head coach. They beat the Patriots.

• Since winning Super Bowl XXVI, the Redskins have won 3 playoff games.

• Since winning Super Bowl XXX, the Cowboys have won 2 playoff games.

• Since winning Super Bowl XXXVII, the Buccaneers have gone 0-2 in the playoffs. Since losing Super Bowl XXXVII, the Raiders have not had a winning season, and only made it to 8 wins twice.

• The Broncos have won two playoff games since John Elway retired. The Dolphins have won one playoff game since Dan Marino retired. The Bills have not won any playoff games since Jim Kelly retired.

NFL: Quarterbacks who run

So I'm still obsessing a bit over the way the Packers' D got smoked by Colin Kaepernick in the playoffs. And also motivated by the talk that the run-option offense is going to be the "next big thing" in the NFL. The run-option may be a new wrinkle, but quarterbacks who can run the ball have been around for a long time. Here is a list of quarterbacks who have at least 10 games with 40 or more rushing yards:

Player	From	To	40-yard games	Teams
Jeff Hostetler	1985	1997	10	Giants, Raiders, Redskins
Jeff Blake	1992	2005	10	Jets, Bengals, Saints, Ravens, Cardinals, Eagles, Bears
Tim Tebow	2010	2012	10	Broncos, Jets
Robert Griffin III	2012	2012	10	Redskins
Doug Flutie	1986	2005	11	Bears, Patriots, Bills, Chargers
Rich Gannon	1987	2004	11	Vikings, Redskins, Chiefs, Raiders
Steve Grogan	1975	1990	12	Patriots
Jim Zorn	1976	1987	12	Seahawks, Packers, Buccaneers
Roger Staubach	1969	1979	13	Cowboys
Terry Bradshaw	1970	1983	13	Steelers
Jim Harbaugh	1987	2000	14	Bears, Colts, Ravens, Chargers
David Garrard	2002	2010	14	Jaguars
Vince Young	2006	2011	14	Titans, Eagles
John Elway	1983	1998	17	Broncos
Mark Brunell	1994	2011	18	Packers, Jaguars, Redskins, Saints, Jets
Cam Newton	2011	2012	18	Panthers
Jeff Garcia	1999	2011	19	49ers, Browns, Lions, Eagles, Buccaneers, Texans
Greg Landry	1968	1984	24	Lions, Colts, Bears
Fran Tarkenton	1961	1978	25	Vikings, Giants
Donovan McNabb	1999	2011	26	Eagles, Redskins, Vikings
Kordell Stewart	1995	2005	27	Steelers, Bears, Ravens
Bobby Douglass	1969	1978	28	Bears, Chargers, Saints, Packers
Daunte Culpepper	1999	2009	28	Vikings, Dolphins, Raiders, Lions
Steve McNair	1995	2007	33	Oilers, Titans, Ravens
Steve Young	1985	1999	48	Buccaneers, 49ers
Randall Cunningham	1985	2001	58	Eagles, Vikings, Cowboys, Ravens
Michael Vick	2001	2012	60	Falcons, Eagles

Comments

• These counts include regular season and playoff games.

• Yeah, that's the same Jim Zorn that was head coach of the Redskins 2008-2009. And the same Jim Harbaugh who is head coach of the 49ers.

• TIL the Falcons had a DB named Cam Newton 2005-2006.

• In spite of his reputation for running, Aaron Rodgers only has 6 40+ yard rushing games.

• One of the biggest problems with having a quarterback who is also a threat to run is injuries. Just to my own personal knowledge, Steve Young, McNabb, Culpepper, McNair, Vick, and of course RG3 have all suffered significant injuries while running the ball.

• Although Cam Newton, with a full slate of starts in his first two seasons, seems to have bucked that trend, at least for now.

NFL: Championship Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

49ers (APR, SRS, Line) @ Falcons

The good news for the Falcons is the 49ers didn't make this an early run-away. The bad news is, no matter how good you are at game-winning drives, sooner or later letting a lead slip away, and needing a score to retake the lead is going to turn out poorly.

The Falcons seemed to make a habit this season of scoring a lot in the first half, and then coasting in the second. This isn't a problem when your opponent is the Eagles or Chargers, but when it's the 49ers, and your halftime lead is just 10 points, that's asking for trouble.

Ravens @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)

The Patrtiots looked really flat in this game. They had one of their lowest-scoring first halves of the season, and their lowest scoring game overall. They had 4 trips into the red zone, with just one touchdown as a result.

It seems to me a big part of the Patriots' problem in this game was coaching. At the end of the first half, if they had used their time out earlier, they would've had one, and maybe two chances at a touchdown. Instead, they let the clock wind down and were forced to take a field goal on second down.

The Patriots also didn't seem to adopt to the windy conditions. In spite of the fact that they did better running the ball than the Ravens (3.9 ypc vs. 3.7), the Patriots passed the ball 54 times (25 of which were incomplete, including 2 interceptions).

Totals

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	1	-	1			6	-	4		60%
SRS	1	-	1			7	-	3		70%
Line	1	-	1			8	-	2		80%

NFL: Championship Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑2)	Broncos	1.0668 (LW × 1.0199)	13-4	Bye
2 (↓1)	Seahawks	1.0600 (LW × 0.9924)	12-6	Bye
3 (↓1)	49ers	1.0527 (LW × 0.9967)	13-4-1	Won by 4 @ Falcons
4 (↑1)	Ravens	1.0308 (LW × 1.0560)	13-6	Won by 15 @ Patriots
5 (↑2)	Redskins	0.9787 (LW × 1.0131)	10-7	Bye
6 (↑2)	Bengals	0.9778 (LW × 1.0141)	10-7	Bye
7 (↓3)	Patriots	0.9711 (LW × 0.9425)	13-5	Lost by 15 vs Ravens
8 (↓2)	Packers	0.9663 (LW × 0.9941)	12-6	Bye
9 (-)	Falcons	0.9585 (LW × 0.9983)	14-4	Lost by 4 vs 49ers
10 (↑2)	Giants	0.9390 (LW × 1.0123)	9-7	Bye
11 (-)	Panthers	0.9351 (LW × 1.0078)	7-9	Bye
12 (↓2)	Vikings	0.9282 (LW × 0.9928)	10-7	Bye
13 (-)	Saints	0.9158 (LW × 1.0058)	7-9	Bye
14 (↑1)	Steelers	0.9105 (LW × 1.0210)	8-8	Bye
15 (↓1)	Bears	0.9031 (LW × 0.9930)	10-6	Bye
16 (-)	Cowboys	0.8943 (LW × 1.0112)	8-8	Bye
17 (-)	Rams	0.8745 (LW × 0.9891)	7-8-1	Bye
18 (-)	Texans	0.8663 (LW × 0.9837)	13-5	Bye
19 (-)	Colts	0.8644 (LW × 0.9928)	11-6	Bye
20 (-)	Buccaneers	0.8539 (LW × 1.0045)	7-9	Bye
21 (↑1)	Chargers	0.8538 (LW × 1.0138)	7-9	Bye
22 (↓1)	Dolphins	0.8309 (LW × 0.9783)	7-9	Bye
23 (-)	Browns	0.8304 (LW × 1.0173)	5-11	Bye
24 (-)	Bills	0.7913 (LW × 0.9822)	6-10	Bye
25 (-)	Lions	0.7758 (LW × 0.9925)	4-12	Bye
26 (-)	Titans	0.7710 (LW × 0.9878)	6-10	Bye
27 (↑2)	Raiders	0.7707 (LW × 1.0140)	4-12	Bye
28 (↓1)	Jets	0.7669 (LW × 0.9833)	6-10	Bye
29 (↓1)	Cardinals	0.7563 (LW × 0.9923)	5-11	Bye
30 (-)	Eagles	0.7434 (LW × 1.0088)	4-12	Bye
31 (-)	Chiefs	0.7186 (LW × 1.0125)	2-14	Bye
32 (-)	Jaguars	0.6624 (LW × 0.9825)	2-14	Bye

Comments:

• The Broncos reclaim the lead, thanks to the indirect power of having recently played the Ravens. Note the Bengals and Giants also both move up 2 spots.

• This is the first time since the 1997 season that both home teams lost in the Championship round.

• This is the third season in a row a 4th-seeded or lower team has advanced to the Super Bowl.

• The 49ers win makes them 2-5 in their last 7 Conference Championships. Overall, this is just the 2nd time they've won on the road.

• Both losing teams had a lead at halftime, and both were shut out in the second half.

• So, Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh? Yeah, we're going to hear a lot about that in the next two weeks.