[I've had this sitting on my hard drive since just after the draft. Time to set it free]
Introduction
So the draft is over. Did your team do well? Is there even a way to tell? I decided to use pro-football-reference.com's draft history data to take a look at how draft picks have done.
What is a bust?
This is a tricky question, especially given the limited information in PFR's draft tables. Ultimately, I settled on anyone who did not last at least to the following year in the NFL (using the 'To' column in the various draft listings).
This does have a couple issues:
False positives: some guys, particularly in the more recent seasons, might still be productive. Also, there are some players still active (e.g. Drew Stanton, Brian Brohm, and Patrick Lee) that PFR has listed as done.
False negatives: particularly for first and second round guys, two years in the NFL doesn't mean much. Even Ryan Leaf (one of the most spectacular busts of recent memory) clears this hurdle.
I considered using the "Career Average Value" (the 'CarAV' column in the draft listings), but that had some issues of its own. One big problem is every Kicker and Punter drafted has a zero (or blank) CarAV value. It also doesn't give any value to backups (is Jim Sorgi really a bust?)
Anyway, as we'll see below, the at-least-two-years criteria does yield some useful information.
By round:
Round | Busts | Picks | % |
1 | 3 | 285 | 1.1% |
2 | 14 | 286 | 4.9% |
3 | 28 | 305 | 9.2% |
4 | 53 | 327 | 16.2% |
5 | 92 | 319 | 28.8% |
6 | 118 | 349 | 33.8% |
7 | 173 | 424 | 40.8% |
About what you'd expect; if a player doesn't get drafted in the first few rounds, there's usually a good reason.. Although some notable players have been drafted late: Tom Brady, Adalius Thomas, Marc Bulger, Mark Tauscher, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh were all drafted in the 6th and 7th rounds.
By position:
Position | Busts | Picks | % |
P | 1 | 19 | 5.3% |
DB | 38 | 439 | 8.7% |
LB | 27 | 287 | 9.4% |
DT | 19 | 181 | 10.5% |
RB | 23 | 173 | 13.3% |
TE | 18 | 134 | 13.4% |
DE | 28 | 204 | 13.7% |
G | 22 | 129 | 17.1% |
K | 4 | 22 | 18.2% |
WR | 56 | 300 | 18.7% |
T | 43 | 189 | 22.8% |
QB | 28 | 119 | 23.5% |
C | 16 | 61 | 26.2% |
Note that with the exception of Defensive End, all the offensive positions have a higher bust-rate than defensive positions. It's said that quarterbacks get too much of the blame when things go wrong, but it looks like the rest of the offensive squad bears that stigma too.
Note that PFR categorizes cornerbacks and safties as "DB" (defensive back).
By team:
Another disclaimer: teams are judged by who they drafted, not who they got to play for them. That means, for example, Eli Manning counts as a successful pick for the San Diego Chargers, even though he never played a down for them.
Team | Busts | Picks | % |
Dallas Cowboys | 8 | 68 | 11.8% |
New York Giants | 8 | 65 | 12.3% |
Tennessee Titans | 11 | 85 | 12.9% |
Buffalo Bills | 10 | 76 | 13.2% |
Carolina Panthers | 10 | 73 | 13.7% |
Arizona Cardinals | 9 | 65 | 13.8% |
New York Jets | 10 | 64 | 15.6% |
Oakland Raiders | 12 | 70 | 17.1% |
Indianapolis Colts | 13 | 74 | 17.6% |
Baltimore Ravens | 14 | 75 | 18.7% |
Chicago Bears | 16 | 78 | 20.5% |
Cleveland Browns | 15 | 72 | 20.8% |
Kansas City Chiefs | 15 | 72 | 20.8% |
Seattle Seahawks | 16 | 77 | 20.8% |
Minnesota Vikings | 14 | 67 | 20.9% |
San Fransisco 49ers | 17 | 81 | 21.0% |
Miami Dolphins | 14 | 65 | 21.5% |
Detroit Lions | 15 | 68 | 22.1% |
San Diego Chargers | 15 | 69 | 21.7% |
St. Louis Rams | 18 | 79 | 22.8% |
Denver Broncos | 16 | 70 | 22.9% |
Philadelphia Eagles | 17 | 74 | 23.0% |
Houston Texans | 14 | 58 | 24.1% |
New Orleans Saints | 16 | 66 | 24.2% |
Green Bay Packers | 20 | 82 | 24.4% |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 17 | 69 | 24.6% |
Atlanta Falcons | 18 | 73 | 24.7% |
New England Patriots | 19 | 77 | 24.7% |
Cincinnati Bengals | 18 | 72 | 25.0% |
Washington Redskins | 16 | 57 | 28.1% |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 24 | 79 | 30.4% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 26 | 75 | 34.7% |
The immediate obvious conclusion is that bad drafts (at least, under this measure) are not necessarily a deal breaker—some of the most successful franchises of the last decade (Eagles, Steelers, and Patriots) are on the high end of this list, while the Bills (who haven't done anything since they had Doug Flutie) have one of the lowest draft-bust rate in the league.
On the other hand, it can't be helping the Buccaneers to have one of every three draft picks washed out after just a year...