Thursday, May 29, 2008

AFL Week 14: Game Picks

For what it's worth. Unanimous picks this week.

PEBCAK alert: somehow, I managed to post the picks for week 11. :-/

I guess one good thing about blogging about a league nobody cares about is that when I make a major goof, nobody notices. Anyway, old picks are deleted, replaced with actual, week 14 picks.

GameAPRSRSITP
Columbus Destroyers @
New Orleans VooDoo
VooDoo
ρ=1.1753
VooDoo
δ= 9.8
VooDoo
Dallas Desperados @
Cleveland Gladiators
Desperados
ρ=1.0885
Desperados
δ= 6.6
Desperados
Tampa Bay Storm @
Georgia Force
Force
ρ=1.0835
Force
δ= 3.8
Force
Arizona Rattlers @
Orlando Predators
Predators
ρ=1.0859
Predators
δ= 8.3
Predators
Kansas City Brigade @
Chicago Rush
Rush
ρ=1.2002
Rush
δ=19.9
Rush
San Jose SaberCats @
Los Angeles Avengers
SaberCats
ρ=1.2131
SaberCats
δ=12.7
SaberCats
Utah Blaze @
Grand Rapids Rampage
Blaze
ρ=1.0354
Rampage
δ= 0.1
Rampage
New York Dragons @
Colorado Crush
Dragons
ρ=1.1485
Dragons
δ= 6.0
Dragons
Bye: Philadelphia Soul

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

AFL Week 13: Pick Standings and Power Rankings

Pick Standings

Once again, a bunch of big upsets, and the home teams are 5-3. The once-mighty Philadelphia Soul are now 1-3 in their last four. Kansas City, Columbus, and Utah all get their third win against what looked like formiddable odds (and KC is one of the three road teams to win this week).

APRSRSITPHome
Week 2(701)(521)(530)(530)
Week 3(530)(530)(620)(620)
Week 4(530)(530)(530)(440)
Week 5(710)(800)(710)(350)
Week 6(440)(350)(440)(800)
Week 7(530)(530)(620)(350)
Week 8(620)(530)(710)(260)
Week 9(620)(620)(620)(620)
Week 10(260)(350)(440)(620)
Week 11(350)(350)(350)(620)
Week 12(620)(710)(620)(350)
Week 13(350)(260)(350)(530)
Totals:(59361)(57381)(62340)(57390)
62.0% 59.9% 64.6% 59.4%

Power Rankings

Philly's losses finally cost them the top spot, thanks in part to big wins by Georgia and Dallas (Dallas' devastating loss to Arizona last week costs them the top spot).

On the other end, Los Angeles' power index goes up a bit on their Bye week, but with big wins by KC and Columbus, it's not enough to keep them out of the bottom spot.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (LW-2)Georgia
Force
7-5-01.4515
(LW * 1.0364)
beat VooDoo by 11
2 (LW-5)Dallas
Desperados
10-2-01.4443
(LW * 1.0570)
beat Predators by 26
3 (LW+2)Philadelphia
Soul
10-3-01.4348
(LW * 0.9616)
lost to Brigade by 7
4 (LW+2)Chicago
Rush
9-3-01.4194
(LW * 0.9813)
lost to Blaze by 3
5 (LW-3)San Jose
SaberCats
8-5-01.4031
(LW * 1.0291)
beat Crush by 17
6 (LW+2)New Orleans
VooDoo
7-5-01.3688
(LW * 0.9837)
lost to Force by 11
7 (LW-3)Tampa Bay
Storm
6-6-01.3396
(LW * 1.0263)
beat Gladiators by 10
8 (LW+2)Orlando
Predators
8-5-01.3392
(LW * 0.9798)
lost to Desperados by 26
9 (LW)New York
Dragons
6-6-01.3344
(LW * 0.9849)
lost to Destroyers by 2
10 (LW+5)Cleveland
Gladiators
7-5-01.3269
(LW * 0.9684)
lost to Storm by 10
11 (LW)Arizona
Rattlers
6-6-01.2333
(LW * 1.0164)
beat Rampage by 4
12 (LW-2)Utah
Blaze
3-10-01.2032
(LW * 1.0519)
beat Rush by 3
13 (LW-4)Kansas City
Brigade
3-9-01.1827
(LW * 1.1111)
beat Soul by 7
14 (LW-2)Columbus
Destroyers
3-9-01.1647
(LW * 1.0432)
beat Dragons by 2
15 (LW)Grand Rapids
Rampage
3-9-01.1621
(LW * 1.0268)
lost to Rattlers by 4
16 (LW+4)Colorado
Crush
4-8-01.1618
(LW * 0.9897)
lost to SaberCats by 17
17 (LW+4)Los Angeles
Avengers
4-8-01.1566
(LW * 1.0011)
Bye

Sunday, May 25, 2008

One more rule

  • Never get involved in a land war in Asia
  • Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line
And... Never take advice on the QB position from someone in Chicago.

Thursday, May 22, 2008

AFL Week 13: Game Picks

Only four of the eight games are unanimous picks this week.

GameAPRSRSITP
Kansas City Brigade @
Philadelphia Soul
Soul
ρ=1.4018
Soul
δ=23.3
Soul
Dallas Desperados @
Orlando Predators
Predators
ρ=1.0002
Predators
δ= 0.2
Desperados
Cleveland Gladiators @
Tampa Bay Storm
Gladiators
ρ=1.0497
Storm
δ= 0.7
Gladiators
New York Dragons @
Columbus Destroyers
Dragons
ρ=1.2135
Dragons
δ= 6.2
Dragons
Chicago Rush @
Utah Blaze
Rush
ρ=1.2647
Rush
δ=18.5
Rush
Grand Rapids Rampage @
Arizona Rattlers
Rattlers
ρ=1.0722
Rampage
δ= 4.5
Rattlers
Colorado Crush @
San Jose SaberCats
SaberCats
ρ=1.1615
SaberCats
δ= 8.1
SaberCats
Georgia Force @
New Orleans VooDoo
Force
ρ=1.0066
VooDoo
δ= 1.9
VooDoo
Bye: Los Angeles Avengers

AFL Week 12: Pick Standings and Power Rankings

Pick Standings

The only upset this week was Arizona beating Dallas (on the road!). SRS gets credit for picking the Georgia @ NY game. ITP still has a 3-game lead over 2nd-best APR.

APRSRSITPHome
Week 2(701)(521)(530)(530)
Week 3(530)(530)(620)(620)
Week 4(530)(530)(530)(440)
Week 5(710)(800)(710)(350)
Week 6(440)(350)(440)(800)
Week 7(530)(530)(620)(350)
Week 8(620)(530)(710)(260)
Week 9(620)(620)(620)(620)
Week 10(260)(350)(440)(620)
Week 11(350)(350)(350)(620)
Week 12(620)(710)(620)(350)
Totals:(56311)(55321)(59290)(52360)
64.2% 63.1% 67.0% 59.1%

Power Rankings

Georgia leaps up 4 spots on beating the formerly 4th-place New York Dragons. Before this week, it was looking like Dallas had a chance to move ahead of Philly into first place, but a bad loss to Arizona costs them big time. Arizona moves up 3 spots, but they're still in the bottom half of the rankings.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (LW)Philadelphia
Soul
10-2-01.4921
(LW * 0.9762)
beat Destroyers by 8
2 (LW)Chicago
Rush
9-2-01.4465
(LW * 1.0064)
beat Avengers by 44
3 (LW-4)Georgia
Force
6-5-01.4006
(LW * 1.0222)
beat Dragons by 5
4 (LW-2)New Orleans
VooDoo
7-4-01.3914
(LW * 1.0092)
Bye
5 (LW)Cleveland
Gladiators
7-4-01.3701
(LW * 0.9862)
beat Crush by 4
6 (LW-2)Orlando
Predators
8-4-01.3668
(LW * 1.0029)
beat Brigade by 7
7 (LW+4)Dallas
Desperados
9-2-01.3665
(LW * 0.9519)
lost to Rattlers by 1
8 (LW-1)San Jose
SaberCats
7-5-01.3634
(LW * 1.0034)
beat Blaze by 10
9 (LW+5)New York
Dragons
6-5-01.3548
(LW * 0.9731)
lost to Force by 5
10 (LW)Tampa Bay
Storm
5-6-01.3052
(LW * 1.0268)
beat Rampage by 8
11 (LW-3)Arizona
Rattlers
5-6-01.2134
(LW * 1.0596)
beat Desperados by 1
12 (LW+1)Colorado
Crush
4-7-01.1739
(LW * 0.9872)
lost to Gladiators by 4
13 (LW)Los Angeles
Avengers
4-8-01.1553
(LW * 0.9905)
lost to Rush by 44
14 (LW-1)Utah
Blaze
2-10-01.1438
(LW * 0.9991)
lost to SaberCats by 10
15 (LW+3)Grand Rapids
Rampage
3-8-01.1317
(LW * 0.9659)
lost to Storm by 8
16 (LW)Columbus
Destroyers
2-9-01.1164
(LW * 1.0069)
lost to Soul by 8
17 (LW)Kansas City
Brigade
2-9-01.0644
(LW * 0.9922)
lost to Predators by 7

Thursday, May 15, 2008

AFL Week 12: Game Picks

Georgia @ New York is the only game the algorithms aren't unanimous on.

GameAPRSRSITP
Tampa Bay Storm @
Grand Rapids Rampage
Storm
ρ=1.0849
Storm
δ= 2.3
Storm
Columbus Destroyers @
Philadelphia Soul
Soul
ρ=1.3786
Soul
δ=20.4
Soul
Arizona Rattlers @
Dallas Desperados
Desperados
ρ=1.2536
Desperados
δ=13.0
Desperados
Cleveland Gladiators @
Colorado Crush
Gladiators
ρ=1.1684
Gladiators
δ= 5.7
Gladiators
Utah Blaze @
San Jose SaberCats
SaberCats
ρ=1.1870
SaberCats
δ= 7.6
SaberCats
Orlando Predators @
Kansas City Brigade
Predators
ρ=1.2703
Predators
δ=15.6
Predators
Georgia Force @
New York Dragons
Dragons
ρ=1.0161
Force
δ= 2.8
Dragons
Los Angeles Avengers @
Chicago Rush
Rush
ρ=1.2322
Rush
δ=17.9
Rush
Bye: New Orleans VooDoo

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

AFL Pick Results and Week 11 Power Rankings

Pick Results

What is the deal with the AFL? Philadelphia takes their second loss, Utah and Kansas City both get their second wins... and for the third week in a row, only two home teams lost. Too much partying on the road?

APRSRSITPHome
Week 2(701)(521)(530)(530)
Week 3(530)(530)(620)(620)
Week 4(530)(530)(530)(440)
Week 5(710)(800)(710)(350)
Week 6(440)(350)(440)(800)
Week 7(530)(530)(620)(350)
Week 8(620)(530)(710)(260)
Week 9(620)(620)(620)(620)
Week 10(260)(350)(440)(620)
Week 11(350)(350)(350)(620)
Totals:(50291)(48311)(53270)(49310)
63.1% 60.6% 66.2% 61.3%

Power Rankings

Thanks to a still-considerable lead, Philadelphia maintains the top spot in spite of losing to the 5-5 Georgia force. Dallas actually loses ground, because of a relatively (to APR, anyway) unimpressive win over the very weak Los Angeles Avengers. Kansas City stays in last place in spite of a 16-point win, partly because the formerly 16th-place Utah Blaze moved up even more on their win.

Every team now has at least two wins. Dallas is the only team that doesn't have at least 2 losses. In their division, Arizona is only a half-game ahead of 3rd-place Los Angeles.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (LW)Philadelphia
Soul
9-2-01.5286
(LW * 0.9824)
lost to Force by 1
2 (LW-1)Chicago
Rush
8-2-01.4373
(LW * 1.0013)
Bye
3 (LW+1)Dallas
Desperados
9-1-01.4355
(LW * 0.9878)
beat Rampage by 11
4 (LW-2)New York
Dragons
6-4-01.3923
(LW * 1.0045)
beat Avengers by 4
5 (LW-2)Cleveland
Gladiators
6-4-01.3893
(LW * 1.0425)
beat Predators by 19
6 (LW+1)New Orleans
VooDoo
7-4-01.3787
(LW * 0.9940)
lost to Storm by 4
7 (LW-1)Georgia
Force
5-5-01.3702
(LW * 1.0414)
beat Soul by 1
8 (LW+4)Orlando
Predators
7-4-01.3629
(LW * 0.9788)
lost to Gladiators by 19
9 (LW)San Jose
SaberCats
6-5-01.3588
(LW * 1.0471)
beat Rattlers by 21
10 (LW)Tampa Bay
Storm
4-6-01.2712
(LW * 1.0207)
beat VooDoo by 4
11 (LW)Colorado
Crush
4-6-01.1891
(LW * 0.9603)
lost to Blaze by 35
12 (LW-3)Grand Rapids
Rampage
3-7-01.1717
(LW * 1.0224)
lost to Desperados by 11
13 (LW-1)Los Angeles
Avengers
4-7-01.1665
(LW * 1.0108)
lost to Dragons by 4
14 (LW+2)Arizona
Rattlers
4-6-01.1451
(LW * 0.9799)
lost to SaberCats by 21
15 (LW-1)Utah
Blaze
2-9-01.1448
(LW * 1.0794)
beat Crush by 35
16 (LW+3)Columbus
Destroyers
2-8-01.1088
(LW * 0.9543)
lost to Brigade by 16
17 (LW)Kansas City
Brigade
2-8-01.0728
(LW * 1.0790)
beat Destroyers by 16

Thursday, May 8, 2008

AFL Week 11: Game Picks

Here's the game picks for week 11. All algorithms picked the same way!

GameAPRSRSITP
Orlando Predators @
Cleveland Gladiators
Predators
ρ=1.0448
Predators
δ= 7.9
Predators
New Orleans VooDoo @
Tampa Bay Storm
VooDoo
ρ=1.1137
VooDoo
δ= 7.4
VooDoo
San Jose SaberCats @
Arizona Rattlers
SaberCats
ρ=1.1105
SaberCats
δ= 9.7
SaberCats
Columbus Destroyers @
Kansas City Brigade
Destroyers
ρ=1.1685
Destroyers
δ= 9.9
Destroyers
Grand Rapids Rampage @
Dallas Desperados
Desperados
ρ=1.2680
Desperados
δ= 6.9
Desperados
Colorado Crush @
Utah Blaze
Crush
ρ=1.1675
Crush
δ= 6.7
Crush
New York Dragons @
Los Angeles Avengers
Dragons
ρ=1.2011
Dragons
δ= 8.3
Dragons
Philadelphia Soul @
Georgia Force
Soul
ρ=1.1826
Soul
δ=12.6
Soul
Bye: Chicago Rush

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

AFL Week 10: Pick standings, Power Rankings

Philly takes their first loss. Thanks to a big power index lead (and Dallas' anemic showing over the very week Columbus Destroyers), Philly keep their first-place spot.

Utah gets their first win, and their first posting out of the 17th slot since week 7.

Power Rankings:

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (LW)Philadelphia
Soul
9-1-01.5559
(LW * 0.9616)
lost to Gladiators by 12
2 (LW)Dallas
Desperados
8-1-01.4532
(LW * 0.9996)
beat Destroyers by 3
3 (LW-1)Chicago
Rush
8-2-01.4354
(LW * 0.9997)
beat Storm by 5
4 (LW-3)Orlando
Predators
7-3-01.3923
(LW * 1.0590)
beat SaberCats by 26
5 (LW+2)New Orleans
VooDoo
7-3-01.3870
(LW * 0.9652)
lost to Force by 27
6 (LW+1)New York
Dragons
5-4-01.3861
(LW * 1.0164)
Bye
7 (LW-2)Cleveland
Gladiators
5-4-01.3326
(LW * 1.0979)
beat Soul by 12
8 (LW-2)Georgia
Force
4-5-01.3157
(LW * 1.0949)
beat VooDoo by 27
9 (LW+3)San Jose
SaberCats
5-5-01.2977
(LW * 0.9586)
lost to Predators by 26
10 (LW+2)Tampa Bay
Storm
3-6-01.2454
(LW * 1.0102)
lost to Rush by 5
11 (LW-2)Colorado
Crush
4-5-01.2382
(LW * 1.0553)
beat Rampage by 25
12 (LW)Arizona
Rattlers
4-5-01.1686
(LW * 0.9879)
lost to Avengers by 7
13 (LW-1)Columbus
Destroyers
2-7-01.1619
(LW * 1.0315)
lost to Desperados by 3
14 (LW-1)Los Angeles
Avengers
4-6-01.1540
(LW * 1.0455)
beat Rattlers by 7
15 (LW+4)Grand Rapids
Rampage
3-6-01.1461
(LW * 0.9589)
lost to Crush by 25
16 (LW-1)Utah
Blaze
1-9-01.0606
(LW * 1.0491)
beat Brigade by 17
17 (LW+1)Kansas City
Brigade
1-8-00.9943
(LW * 0.9717)
lost to Blaze by 17

Pick Standings:

APRSRSITPHome
Week 2(701)(521)(530)(530)
Week 3(530)(530)(620)(620)
Week 4(530)(530)(530)(440)
Week 5(710)(800)(710)(350)
Week 6(440)(350)(440)(800)
Week 7(530)(530)(620)(350)
Week 8(620)(530)(710)(260)
Week 9(620)(620)(620)(620)
Week 10(260)(350)(440)(620)
Totals:(47241)(45261)(50220)(43290)
66.0% 63.2% 69.4% 59.7%

Saturday, May 3, 2008

Half way

The Super Bowl was 3 months ago today. Three months from today is August 3. That's when the first preseason game is scheduled to be played.

And four months until the start of the regular season.