Wednesday, December 31, 2008

NFL Wildcard Week Picks and FWDP

2008 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Picks for the Wildcard games

Based on the week 17 rankings. Line values are taken from yahoo.com, and are for comparison purposes only.

GameAPRSRSLine
Atlanta Falcons @
Arizona Cardinals
Falcons
ρ=1.1365
Falcons
δ=5.62
Falcons
-2
Baltimore Ravens @
Miami Dolphins
Ravens
ρ=1.1255
Ravens
δ=10.14
Ravens
-3
Indianapolis Colts @
San Diego Chargers
Colts
ρ=1.0521
Colts
δ=1.35
Colts
-1
Philadelphia Eagles @
Minnesota Vikings
Eagles
ρ=1.0228
Eagles
δ=3.87
Eagles
-3
Bye: Titans, Steelers, Giants, Panthers

Comments:

  • Unanimous picks for the road teams.

  • In fact, APR ranks every road team (Ravens=1, Colts=3, Eagles=7 Falcons=9) above every home team (Chargers=10, Vikings=11, Dolphins=12, Cardinals=20).

  • Isn't it a little surprising that the Falcons are only getting 2 points on the Cardinals? The Cardinals only have one loss by less than 7...

  • One moderately bright spot for the Cardinals: they were 2-2 at home against teams with winning records this season, including beating the playoff-bound Dolphins.

Final Week Division Power

Read this for a description of FWDP.

DivisionFWDPPlayoff Teams
AFC South1.3473 Titans, Colts
NFC East1.3442 Giants, Eagles
NFC South1.3437 Panthers, Falcons
AFC North1.3335 Steelers, Ravens
AFC East1.3013 Dolphins
NFC North1.2325 Vikings
AFC West1.2163 Chargers
NFC West1.1622 Cardinals

Comments:

  • I haven't done any analysis of how FWDP corresponds to playoff results in non-Super Bowl playoff games.

  • The top 4 divisions are all very close. Unless one of the teams from the lower-ranked divisions manages to get to the Super Bowl, this could easily be another year the Super Bowl winner doesn't have the strongest FWDP.

  • The NFC South was the top division (and the AFC South third) until week 17. That end-of-season losing streak by the Buccaneers really hurt that division.

  • The four home teams represent the four weakest divisions.

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

NFL Wrapup: APR vs ESPN

2008 Navigation Links

Starting with week 4, I included a contrast of APR's power rankings with ESPN's weekly power rankings. This is the final installment of the series for the 2008 season, along with a summary of the teams that appeared on these lists.

Teams that ESPN likes more than APR, week 17:

As with last week, no major disagreements. The Broncos (+5) and Cardinals (+7) are the only team with a differential beyond +4.

Teams that APR likes more than ESPN, week 17:

Similarly on this side. The Ravens (-5), Saints (-6) and Packers (-7) are the only teams with a differential beyond -4.

It should also be noted that ESPN is not exactly going out on a limb this week. The Chargers (8-8) and 49ers (7-9) are the only teams ranked above teams with better records.

Teams that ESPN liked more than APR, regular season

There is a definite "halo" effect where in subjective power rankings, teams that did very well the previous season get a healthy "benefit of the doubt" allowance in spite of weak on-the-field performance. It's probably no coincidence all three of these teams were in the playoffs following the 2007 season.

Patriots (6 weeks)
The Patriots had a very odd trajectory with APR. After their week 6 loss to the Chargers, APR dropped them from #12 all the way to #24. The Patriots then stayed in the bottom half of the rankings until their week 12 win over the Dolphins, but regressed on losing to the Steelers.

APR was 12-3 picking games the Patriots played, missing only the two games against the Dolphins and the week 7 game against the Broncos.

Redskins (5 weeks)
APR was very quick to drop the Redskins after their week 9 loss to the Steelers. ESPN took a long time to notice they weren't playing very strong football—ESPN didn't drop the Redskins below #13 until their week 13 loss to the Giants.

Giants (4 weeks)
The Giants struggled early on, needing overtime to beat the Bengals, and then losing to the Browns 3 weeks later. APR kept them out of the top rankings until week 8, after they beat the Steelers.

Also-rans
Bills, Broncos, Cardinals, Dolphins, Steelers (2 weeks), Colts, Jaguars (1 week).

Teams that APR liked more than ESPN, regular season

There is also an "inverse-halo" effect, for teams that are coming off a very bad season.

Ravens (6 weeks)
APR has had the Ravens in the top 5 since week 9. ESPN would probably rank them higher if they weren't playing in the shadow of the Steelers.

Dolphins (4 weeks)
APR may have sometimes overrated the Dolphins (they were as high as #3 in week 5), but ESPN never placed them higher than #23 until week 9, in spite of other teams much more worthy of those bottom 10 spots.

Bears (4 weeks)
The Bears actually looked very good early on. They beat the Colts, Eagles, and Vikings, and played close to the Panthers and Falcons (all playoff teams). APR had them as high as #3 after their week 7 win over the Vikings. But then they had a 1-3 stretch starting in week 11 which cost them a spot in the playoffs as well as a spot in APR's top 10.

Also-rans
Eagles, Packers, Vikings (3 weeks), Browns, Chargers, Jets, Saints (1 week).

Monday, December 29, 2008

NFL Week 17 Power Rankings

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)Baltimore
Ravens
11-51.5144
(LW × 1.003)
won by 20
vs Jaguars
2 (↑1)Pittsburgh
Steelers
12-41.4858
(LW × 1.000)
won by 31
vs Browns
3 (↑4)Indianapolis
Colts
12-41.4638
(LW × 1.041)
won by 23
vs Titans
4 (-)New York
Giants
12-41.4544
(LW × 0.988)
lost by 1
at Vikings
5 (↓3)Tennessee
Titans
13-31.4403
(LW × 0.967)
lost by 23
at Colts
6 (↑2)New England
Patriots
11-51.4192
(LW × 1.026)
won by 13
at Bills
7 (↑2)Philadelphia
Eagles
9-6-11.4137
(LW × 1.024)
won by 38
vs Cowboys
8 (↓2)Carolina
Panthers
12-41.4123
(LW × 0.996)
won by 2
at Saints
9 (↓4)Atlanta
Falcons
11-51.3947
(LW × 0.965)
won by 4
vs Rams
10 (-)San Diego
Chargers
8-81.3914
(LW × 1.010)
won by 31
vs Broncos
11 (-)Minnesota
Vikings
10-61.3823
(LW × 1.007)
won by 1
vs Giants
12 (↑4)Miami
Dolphins
11-51.3456
(LW × 1.034)
won by 7
at Jets
13 (↓1)New Orleans
Saints
8-81.3167
(LW × 0.974)
lost by 2
vs Panthers
14 (↑3)Houston
Texans
8-81.3135
(LW × 1.022)
won by 7
vs Bears
15 (↓2)Dallas
Cowboys
9-71.2883
(LW × 0.969)
lost by 38
at Eagles
16 (↓1)Chicago
Bears
9-71.2741
(LW × 0.978)
lost by 7
at Texans
17 (↑2)Green Bay
Packers
6-101.2528
(LW × 0.986)
won by 10
vs Lions
18 (↓4)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
9-71.2510
(LW × 0.951)
lost by 7
vs Raiders
19 (↓1)New York
Jets
9-71.2431
(LW × 0.977)
lost by 7
vs Dolphins
20 (↑4)Arizona
Cardinals
9-71.2272
(LW × 1.025)
won by 13
vs Seahawks
21 (↑1)San Francisco
49ers
7-91.2225
(LW × 1.014)
won by 3
vs Redskins
22 (↓2)Washington
Redskins
8-81.2204
(LW × 0.995)
lost by 3
at 49ers
23 (↑5)Oakland
Raiders
5-111.2103
(LW × 1.049)
won by 7
at Buccaneers
24 (↑1)Cincinnati
Bengals
4-11-11.2053
(LW × 1.010)
won by 10
vs Chiefs
25 (↓4)Buffalo
Bills
7-91.1971
(LW × 0.987)
lost by 13
vs Patriots
26 (-)Jacksonville
Jaguars
5-111.1718
(LW × 0.995)
lost by 20
at Ravens
27 (↓4)Denver
Broncos
8-81.1701
(LW × 0.976)
lost by 31
at Chargers
28 (↓1)Seattle
Seahawks
4-121.1513
(LW × 0.991)
lost by 13
at Cardinals
29 (-)Cleveland
Browns
4-121.1283
(LW × 0.996)
lost by 31
at Steelers
30 (-)Kansas City
Chiefs
2-141.0935
(LW × 0.991)
lost by 10
at Bengals
31 (↑1)St. Louis
Rams
2-141.0480
(LW × 1.042)
lost by 4
at Falcons
32 (↓1)Detroit
Lions
0-161.0210
(LW × 1.000)
lost by 10
at Packers

Comments:

  • Patriots are the highest-ranked team out of the playoffs.

  • Cardinals are the lowest-ranked team in the playoffs, and the only playoff team not to finish in the top 12.

  • Thanks to the Broncos finishing 8-8, the Cardinals finish as the lowest-ranked team with a winning record.

  • The Giants are the only NFC team returning to the playoffs.

  • AFC finishes with 6 teams in the top 10, 7 in the bottom 10. The Jets, Texans, and Dolphins are the only teams not in one of those two groups.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:
Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

I'll put the week 17 results in a separate season-recap post.

Historically Bad Team Wrapup

Two new teams in the bottom 20:

RankTeamNet PtsNet Pts/Game
#72008 Detroit Lions -249-15.56
#182008 St. Louis Rams-233-14.56

The next 2008 teams are the Cincinnati Bengals (#70) and the Kansas City Chiefs (#92).

Stay Tuned!

FSPI will continue through the playoffs, and I also have some season recap articles to post.

Sunday, December 28, 2008

NFL Week 17 Pick Results

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line picks counted correct when the favored team wins; they do not have to beat the spread to count as a win.

Pick results for week 17.

Unanimous picks (10-2)

Correctly picked:

Lions @ Packers
Browns @ Steelers
Panthers @ Saints
Chiefs @ Bengals
Patriots @ Bills
Rams @ Falcons
Jaguars @ Ravens
Cowboys @ Eagles
Seahawks @ Cardinals
Broncos @ Chargers

Not so much:

Titans @ Colts
Both teams mostly played their backups.

Raiders @ Buccaneers
First 14 games: Buccaneers have only one game where they give up more than 24 points. Last two games, they give up 41 and 31. Was the Monte Kiffin situation that much of a distraction?

Split Picks (APR 1-3) (SRS 0-4) (Line 3-1)

Giants (APR, SRS) @ Vikings (Line)
The Giants played their backups for the second half. Even so, the Vikings needed a last-second 50-yard field goal to win the game. It doesn't bode well for the Vikings chances in the playoffs.

Dolphins (APR) @ Jets (SRS, Line)
Favre throws 3 interceptions including a pick 6.

Redskins (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)
For the first time in a long while, Mike Singletary could make the 49ers a team worth watching.

Bears (APR, SRS) @ Texans (Line)
The Bears defense gives up 31 points. That's not good when the Bears offense has only made it to 31 points twice this season.

Standings:

This weekOverall%
APR:11-5159-80-166.5%
SRS:10-6150-89-162.7%
Line:13-3160-78-267.1%
Unanimous:10-2124-49-171.6%

New power rankings, and next weeks picks to come.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

NFL Week 17 Picks

2008 Navigation Links

Picks for week 17, based on the week 16 rankings.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com, and are for comparison purposes only.

GameAPRSRSLine
St. Louis Rams @
Atlanta Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.4364
Falcons
δ=21.28
Falcons
-14½
Cleveland Browns @
Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.3118
Steelers
δ=12.14
Steelers
-10½
Jacksonville Jaguars @
Baltimore Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.2817
Ravens
δ=10.98
Ravens
-12½
Detroit Lions @
Green Bay Packers
Packers
ρ=1.2448
Packers
δ=16.92
Packers
-9½
Denver Broncos @
San Diego Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.1490
Chargers
δ=7.93
Chargers
-8½
Oakland Raiders @
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.1401
Buccaneers
δ=12.45
Buccaneers
-13
New England Patriots @
Buffalo Bills
Patriots
ρ=1.1399
Patriots
δ=6.24
Patriots
-6½
Kansas City Chiefs @
Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.0810
Bengals
δ=0.71
Bengals
-3
New York Giants @
Minnesota Vikings
Giants
ρ=1.0718
Giants
δ=4.49
Vikings
-6½
Tennessee Titans @
Indianapolis Colts
Titans
ρ=1.0597
Titans
δ=5.83
Titans
-3
Carolina Panthers @
New Orleans Saints
Panthers
ρ=1.0488
Panthers
δ=1.53
Panthers
-3
Dallas Cowboys @
Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.0383
Eagles
δ=3.39
Eagles
-1½
Seattle Seahawks @
Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=1.0309
Cardinals
δ=4.71
Cardinals
-6
Miami Dolphins @
New York Jets
Dolphins
ρ=1.0233
Jets
δ=1.88
Jets
-2½
Washington Redskins @
San Francisco 49ers
Redskins
ρ=1.0170
Redskins
δ=4.35
49ers
-3
Chicago Bears @
Houston Texans
Bears
ρ=1.0135
Bears
δ=4.14
Texans
-3

Comments:

  • Disagreements for Giants @ Vikings, Dolphins @ Jets, Redskins @ 49ers, and Bears @ Texans.

  • APR and SRS do not take into account that some teams have clinched their post-season seeding, and probably won't be playing all-out this week. Titans @ Colts, in particular, is likely to be a battle of the backups after the first or second series for both teams.

  • And the Vikings are only favored to win because the Giants have nothing to play for this week. On the other hand, the Vikings will have trouble beating even the Giants' backups if they lose 4 fumbles again.

  • Surely the Packers can beat the Lions at Lambeau field. Right? Right?

  • The Texans have run hot and cold this season (beating the Titans, then losing to the Raiders), but they are 5-2 at home this season. Of course, the Bears aren't really the type of team to lay down, even if they are likely to be eliminated from the playoffs.

  • Amazingly, Mike Singletary has a chance to go 5-4 as head coach this season. If the 49ers have enough sense to sign him on long-term, the Cardinals should have a solid challenger for the NFC West next year.

NFL Week 16 Power Rankings

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (↑1)Baltimore
Ravens
10-51.5099
(LW × 1.024)
won by 9
at Cowboys
2 (↑2)Tennessee
Titans
13-21.4898
(LW × 1.023)
won by 17
vs Steelers
3 (↓2)Pittsburgh
Steelers
11-41.4864
(LW × 0.983)
lost by 17
at Titans
4 (↓1)New York
Giants
12-31.4719
(LW × 1.002)
won by 6
vs Panthers
5 (↑3)Atlanta
Falcons
10-51.4454
(LW × 1.034)
won by 7
at Vikings
6 (-)Carolina
Panthers
11-41.4173
(LW × 0.991)
lost by 6
at Giants
7 (↑2)Indianapolis
Colts
11-41.4058
(LW × 1.011)
won by 7
at Jaguars
8 (↑6)New England
Patriots
10-51.3826
(LW × 1.045)
won by 40
vs Cardinals
9 (↓2)Philadelphia
Eagles
8-6-11.3809
(LW × 0.969)
lost by 7
at Redskins
10 (↑7)San Diego
Chargers
7-81.3777
(LW × 1.075)
won by 17
at Buccaneers
11 (↓6)Minnesota
Vikings
9-61.3732
(LW × 0.953)
lost by 7
vs Falcons
12 (↑1)New Orleans
Saints
8-71.3514
(LW × 1.017)
won by 35
at Lions
13 (↓2)Dallas
Cowboys
9-61.3299
(LW × 0.983)
lost by 9
vs Ravens
14 (↓4)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
9-61.3154
(LW × 0.956)
lost by 17
vs Chargers
15 (-)Chicago
Bears
9-61.3023
(LW × 0.992)
won by 3
vs Packers
16 (↑3)Miami
Dolphins
10-51.3019
(LW × 1.040)
won by 7
at Chiefs
17 (↓5)Houston
Texans
7-81.2850
(LW × 0.963)
lost by 11
at Raiders
18 (-)New York
Jets
9-61.2722
(LW × 0.995)
lost by 10
at Seahawks
19 (↓3)Green Bay
Packers
5-101.2711
(LW × 0.986)
lost by 3
at Bears
20 (↑5)Washington
Redskins
8-71.2265
(LW × 1.048)
won by 7
vs Eagles
21 (↑5)Buffalo
Bills
7-81.2130
(LW × 1.055)
won by 7
at Broncos
22 (↑1)San Francisco
49ers
6-91.2059
(LW × 1.007)
won by 1
at Rams
23 (↓3)Denver
Broncos
8-71.1990
(LW × 0.976)
lost by 7
vs Bills
24 (↓3)Arizona
Cardinals
8-71.1977
(LW × 0.981)
lost by 40
at Patriots
25 (↑2)Cincinnati
Bengals
3-11-11.1933
(LW × 1.049)
won by 14
at Browns
26 (↓4)Jacksonville
Jaguars
5-101.1780
(LW × 0.973)
lost by 7
vs Colts
27 (↑1)Seattle
Seahawks
4-111.1618
(LW × 1.051)
won by 10
vs Jets
28 (↑2)Oakland
Raiders
4-111.1537
(LW × 1.065)
won by 11
vs Texans
29 (↓5)Cleveland
Browns
4-111.1330
(LW × 0.962)
lost by 14
vs Bengals
30 (↓1)Kansas City
Chiefs
2-131.1038
(LW × 1.009)
lost by 7
vs Dolphins
31 (-)Detroit
Lions
0-151.0211
(LW × 0.968)
lost by 35
vs Saints
32 (-)St. Louis
Rams
2-131.0062
(LW × 1.015)
lost by 1
vs 49ers

Comments:

  • The Ravens get their chance at the #1 spot. And they still haven't clinched a playoff spot going into week 17!

  • The Giants move up a little, but not enough to stay ahead of the Titans on their much more impressive win.

  • APR has ranked the Chargers ahead of the Broncos nearly every week. And now the division comes down to the final game of the season. The Chargers have another chance to make up for their week 2 failures. If they can't get it done now, they don't have anyone to blame but themselves.

  • Now the 49ers are the only NFC West team outside the bottom 10. It really doesn't look good for the Cardinals getting to the Divsional round of the playoffs.

  • The Lions have overtaken the Rams for most net points allowed. The Lions would need to lose to the Packers by 89 points to tie the '76 Buccaneers for worst average, though.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Nothing really egregious this week. Dolphins (+7) are the closest to my usual +8 cut-off.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

And again, no major disagreements. Eagles (-6) and Chargers (-6) have the only differential beyond -5.

Monday, December 22, 2008

NFL Week 16 Pick Results

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line picks counted correct when the favored team wins; they do not have to beat the spread to count as a win.

Pick results for week 16.

Unanimous picks (6-6)

Correctly picked:

Colts @ Jaguars
Saints @ Lions
49ers @ Rams
Dolphins @ Chiefs
Cardinals @ Patriots
Panthers @ Giants

Not so much:

Chargers @ Buccaneers
The Buccaneers were in this one through 3 quarters, but gave up 3 touchdowns in the 4th, including a pick-6.

Bengals @ Browns
The Browns turned it over 4 times. Even the Bengals can get a win if you give them 4 extra chances at the ball.

Jets @ Seahawks
The Jets didn't look anything like a playoff team. After their opening drive, they only had one longer than 32 yards.

Texans @ Raiders
It would be easier to make the case that the Texans are under-rated if they didn't do this.

Eagles @ Redskins
The Eagles' offense goes back into hibernation. Only 2 drives more than 17 yards. One ended in a field goal, one ended just shy of a game-tying touchdown.

Falcons @ Vikings
The Vikings turn out to be overated at the #5 spot. Seven fumbles; four lost. The only surprise here is that the Falcons let them back into the game as much as they did.

Split Picks (APR 2-2) (SRS 3-1) (Line 1-3)

Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)
Have the Ravens have been playing a little under the radar this year? All their losses been to high-ranked teams, and only 2 by more than 4 points. Not bad for a rookie QB and a 1st year head coach.

Bills (SRS) @ Broncos (APR, Line)
Steelers (APR, Line) @ Titans (SRS)
SRS makes up some ground! SRS is also 5-0 so far on Bowl picks...

Packers (SRS) @ Bears (APR, Line)
Packers have had a 4th-quarter lead in 6 of their 10 losses, and were tied in two others. Somebody on this team needs to figure out how to seal the deal.

Standings:

This weekOverall
APR:8-8148-75-1
SRS:9-7140-83-1
Line:7-9147-75-2
Unanimous:6-6114-47-1

New power rankings, and next weeks picks to come.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

NFL Week 16 Picks

2008 Navigation Links

Picks for week 16, based on the week 15 rankings.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com, and are for comparison purposes only.

Picks for week 16.

GameAPRSRSLine
New Orleans Saints @
Detroit Lions
Saints
ρ=1.2598
Saints
δ=14.79
Saints
-6½
Houston Texans @
Oakland Raiders
Texans
ρ=1.2320
Texans
δ=10.90
Texans
-7
Philadelphia Eagles @
Washington Redskins
Eagles
ρ=1.2182
Eagles
δ=9.26
Eagles
-5
San Francisco 49ers @
St. Louis Rams
49ers
ρ=1.2074
49ers
δ=11.53
49ers
-5
New York Jets @
Seattle Seahawks
Jets
ρ=1.1570
Jets
δ=9.48
Jets
-5
Indianapolis Colts @
Jacksonville Jaguars
Colts
ρ=1.1482
Colts
δ=6.42
Colts
-6
Miami Dolphins @
Kansas City Chiefs
Dolphins
ρ=1.1441
Dolphins
δ=7.53
Dolphins
-4
Baltimore Ravens @
Dallas Cowboys
Ravens
ρ=1.0897
Ravens
δ=5.96
Cowboys
-4½
Arizona Cardinals @
New England Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.0833
Patriots
δ=0.36
Patriots
-8
San Diego Chargers @
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.0736
Buccaneers
δ=3.41
Buccaneers
-3
Buffalo Bills @
Denver Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.0688
Bills
δ=0.68
Broncos
-7
Pittsburgh Steelers @
Tennessee Titans
Steelers
ρ=1.0388
Titans
δ=0.67
Steelers
-1
Cincinnati Bengals @
Cleveland Browns
Browns
ρ=1.0355
Browns
δ=6.16
Browns
-3
Atlanta Falcons @
Minnesota Vikings
Vikings
ρ=1.0302
Vikings
δ=0.46
Vikings
-3
Carolina Panthers @
New York Giants
Giants
ρ=1.0276
Giants
δ=2.16
Giants
-3
Green Bay Packers @
Chicago Bears
Bears
ρ=1.0183
Packers
δ=1.27
Bears
-4

Comments:

  • Disagreements for Ravens @ Cowboys, Bills @ Broncos, Steelers @ Titans, and Packers @ Bears. SRS is feeling its oats this week.

  • The Jets are 0-3 on the west coast this year, including games at the 49ers and Raiders.

  • The Cardinals losses this year have either been by 8 points or less (Redskins, Panthers, Giants) or 21 points or more (Jets, Eagles, Vikings).

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (↑3)Pittsburgh
Steelers
11-31.5122
(LW × 1.028)
won by 4
at Ravens
2 (-)Baltimore
Ravens
9-51.4739
(LW × 0.977)
lost by 4
vs Steelers
3 (↓2)New York
Giants
11-31.4690
(LW × 0.961)
lost by 12
at Cowboys
4 (↓1)Tennessee
Titans
12-21.4557
(LW × 0.989)
lost by 1
at Texans
5 (↑4)Minnesota
Vikings
9-51.4405
(LW × 1.047)
won by 21
at Cardinals
6 (-)Carolina
Panthers
11-31.4296
(LW × 1.013)
won by 20
vs Broncos
7 (↓2)Philadelphia
Eagles
8-5-11.4253
(LW × 0.998)
won by 20
vs Browns
8 (↓1)Atlanta
Falcons
9-51.3982
(LW × 0.999)
won by 3
vs Buccaneers
9 (↓1)Indianapolis
Colts
10-41.3902
(LW × 0.995)
won by 10
vs Lions
10 (-)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
9-51.3762
(LW × 1.004)
lost by 3
at Falcons
11 (↑1)Dallas
Cowboys
9-51.3526
(LW × 1.037)
won by 12
vs Giants
12 (↑1)Houston
Texans
7-71.3342
(LW × 1.029)
won by 1
vs Titans
13 (↓2)New Orleans
Saints
7-71.3292
(LW × 0.986)
lost by 3
at Bears
14 (↑1)New England
Patriots
9-51.3225
(LW × 1.022)
won by 23
at Raiders
15 (↑3)Chicago
Bears
8-61.3129
(LW × 1.024)
won by 3
vs Saints
16 (↑1)Green Bay
Packers
5-91.2894
(LW × 0.997)
lost by 4
at Jaguars
17 (↓1)San Diego
Chargers
6-81.2818
(LW × 0.991)
won by 1
at Chiefs
18 (↓4)New York
Jets
9-51.2788
(LW × 0.987)
won by 4
vs Bills
19 (↑2)Miami
Dolphins
9-51.2519
(LW × 0.997)
won by 5
vs 49ers
20 (-)Denver
Broncos
8-61.2287
(LW × 0.970)
lost by 20
at Panthers
21 (↓2)Arizona
Cardinals
8-61.2209
(LW × 0.963)
lost by 21
vs Vikings
22 (↑3)Jacksonville
Jaguars
5-91.2107
(LW × 1.032)
won by 4
vs Packers
23 (-)San Francisco
49ers
5-91.1974
(LW × 0.996)
lost by 5
at Dolphins
24 (-)Cleveland
Browns
4-101.1775
(LW × 0.981)
lost by 20
at Eagles
25 (↓3)Washington
Redskins
7-71.1700
(LW × 0.972)
lost by 7
at Bengals
26 (-)Buffalo
Bills
6-81.1496
(LW × 1.002)
lost by 4
at Jets
27 (↑2)Cincinnati
Bengals
2-11-11.1372
(LW × 1.033)
won by 7
vs Redskins
28 (↑2)Seattle
Seahawks
3-111.1053
(LW × 1.004)
won by 3
at Rams
29 (↓1)Kansas City
Chiefs
2-121.0943
(LW × 0.984)
lost by 1
vs Chargers
30 (↓3)Oakland
Raiders
3-111.0829
(LW × 0.960)
lost by 23
vs Patriots
31 (-)Detroit
Lions
0-141.0551
(LW × 1.032)
lost by 10
at Colts
32 (-)St. Louis
Rams
2-120.9917
(LW × 0.988)
lost by 3
vs Seahawks

Comments:

  • Playoff standings detailed here.

  • The Steelers get their turn at the top spot. The Ravens stay at #2, thanks to losses by the Giants and Titans.

  • The Vikings are a top 5 team. This week, anyway. They've won 4 in a row, but with the Falcons and Giants to close out the season, it will be tough to extend that to 6.

  • The Colts have now won 7 in a row. They clinch a wildcard spot with one more win.

  • The Saints are the only NFC South team out of the top 10.

  • The Cardinals are the only NFC West team out of the bottom 10.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Dolphins (+8)
The Dolphins have put together a string of close wins against some of the leagues weaker teams. 2 points over the Seahawks, 2 points over the Raiders, 13 points over the Bills, and now 5 points over the 49ers. I'm sure the Dolphins are more than happy with these wins, but they don't bode well for the Dolphins if they make it to the playoffs.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Packers (-9)
I have no good explanation why APR has the Packers at #16. There's no way they've been playing like a middle-of-the-pack team. No way they should be above the Jets, Dolphins, or even the Broncos. I suspect APR needs to discount early-season games more than it currently does, especially when it gets to the final stretch.

Update: DVOA has the Packers ranked #11.

Monday, December 15, 2008

NFL Week 15 Pick Results

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line picks counted correct when the favored team wins; they do not have to beat the spread to count as a win.

Pick results for week 14.

Unanimous picks (8-4)

Correctly picked:

Lions @ Colts
Chargers @ Chiefs
Patriots @ Raiders
Bills @ Jets
Broncos @ Panthers
Seahawks @ Rams
49ers @ Dolphins
Browns @ Eagles

Not so much:

Titans @ Texans
Are the Texans better than their 7-7 record? Four of their losses are by 7 points or less, including an overtime loss to the Jaguars, and that week 3 break-down where they fumbled away a big lead against the Colts.

Packers @ Jaguars
The Packers offense takes their turn as scapegoat. Five second-half drives, only one went for more than 32 yards. Ryan Grant's lack of production was a big issue. He finished with just 56 yards on 21 carries. Yeah, he's got 1,000 yards for the season, but he's well off last years' 5.1 ypc average.

Redskins @ Bengals
The Bengals seem to do oddly well against the NFC East this year: OT vs the Giants, close to the Cowboys until late, tied the Eagles, and now they beat the Redskins.

Steelers @ Ravens
Just like their first meeting, the Ravens had their chances to win this. The Ravens defense held the Steelers to just 3 points until the 4th quarter. But like the Cowboys, the Ravens found out that the Steelers can score late.

Split Picks (APR 2-2) (SRS 1-3) (Line 3-1)

Giants (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)
A lot of the air seems to gone out of the Giants once they clinched the NFC East. And they still need one more win (or a Vikings loss) to clinch a bye...

Vikings (APR, SRS) @ Cardinals (Line)
The Cardinals are now 3-6 against non-division opponents. They really can't seem to get a win, even against a middle-of-the-pack team.

Saints (APR, SRS) @ Bears (Line)
The Saints struggled on offense all night long. Drew Brees was under a 50% completion rate for most of the game. The Saints offense only had 2 drives go longer than 45 yards (one of which ended in an interception). On the other side, the Bears got a couple big kick returns (including an early punt return for a touchdown), and a couple of big pass interference calls (Devin Hester had more yards on DPI calls than he did receiving). The Bears had their own problems (including just 55 yards rushing), but were able to pull out the win.

Buccaneers (SRS) @ Falcons (APR, Line)
No NFC South team has won a divisional game on the road.

Standings:

This weekOverall
APR:10-6140-67-1
SRS: 9-7131-76-1
Line:11-5140-66-2
Unanimous: 8-4108-41-1

New power rankings, and next weeks picks to come.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

NCAA: APR Picks the Bowl Games!

2008 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to NCAA.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com, and are for comparison purposes only.

Picks for the Bowl Games.

GameAPRSRSLine
Memphis (92) @
South-Florida (48)
South-Florida
ρ=1.1574
South-Florida
δ=9.64
South-Florida
-12½
Boston-Coll (23) @
Vanderbilt (64)
Boston-Coll
ρ=1.1555
Boston-Coll
δ=4.91
Boston-Coll
-4
LSU (59) @
Georgia-Tech (26)
Georgia-Tech
ρ=1.1295
Georgia-Tech
δ=3.82
Georgia-Tech
-4
Kentucky (81) @
East-Carolina (45)
East-Carolina
ρ=1.1290
Kentucky
δ=0.66
East-Carolina
-2
Tulsa (55) @
Ball-St (19)
Ball-St
ρ=1.1240
Ball-St
δ=0.59
Ball-St
-3
Wisconsin (42) @
Florida-St (17)
Florida-St
ρ=1.0999
Florida-St
δ=5.93
Florida-St
-5
South-Carolina (41) @
Iowa (16)
Iowa
ρ=1.0953
Iowa
δ=10.32
Iowa
-3½
Oregon-St (34) @
Pittsburgh (12)
Pittsburgh
ρ=1.0946
Oregon-St
δ=4.19
Oregon-St
-3
NC-State (33) @
Rutgers (13)
Rutgers
ρ=1.0758
Rutgers
δ=6.86
NC-State
-7
Florida-Atlantic (82) @
Cent-Michigan (61)
Cent-Michigan
ρ=1.0753
Cent-Michigan
δ=6.87
Cent-Michigan
-7
Mississippi (15) @
Texas-Tech (8)
Texas-Tech
ρ=1.0687
Texas-Tech
δ=7.65
Texas-Tech
-5½
Kansas (49) @
Minnesota (68)
Kansas
ρ=1.0679
Kansas
δ=10.81
Kansas
-10
Ohio-St (7) @
Texas (3)
Texas
ρ=1.0610
Texas
δ=13.10
Texas
-9½
BYU (30) @
Arizona (46)
BYU
ρ=1.0601
Arizona
δ=5.04
Arizona
-3
Boise-St (6) @
TCU (11)
Boise-St
ρ=1.0397
TCU
δ=3.69
TCU
-2½
Oklahoma-St (28) @
Oregon (18)
Oregon
ρ=1.0374
Oklahoma-St
δ=1.80
Oklahoma-St
-4
Rice (38) @
W-Michigan (52)
Rice
ρ=1.0349
Rice
δ=2.24
Rice
-3
Penn-St (4) @
USC (5)
Penn-St
ρ=1.0336
USC
δ=3.50
USC
-10
Buffalo (36) @
Connecticut (44)
Buffalo
ρ=1.0280
Connecticut
δ=2.88
Connecticut
-4½
Clemson (25) @
Nebraska (31)
Clemson
ρ=1.0273
Nebraska
δ=2.27
Clemson
-2½
Missouri (29) @
Northwestern (35)
Missouri
ρ=1.0259
Missouri
δ=17.21
Missouri
-13
Houston (57) @
Air-Force (54)
Air-Force
ρ=1.0255
Air-Force
δ=0.14
Houston
-3
Wake-Forest (37) @
Navy (32)
Navy
ρ=1.0234
Wake-Forest
δ=2.39
Wake-Forest
-3
Virginia-Tech (22) @
Cincinnati (14)
Cincinnati
ρ=1.0225
Virginia-Tech
δ=2.06
Cincinnati
-1½
Hawaii (65) @
Notre-Dame (58)
Notre-Dame
ρ=1.0219
Notre-Dame
δ=9.28
Hawaii
-1½
Southern-Miss (43) @
Troy (53)
Southern-Miss
ρ=1.0200
Southern-Miss
δ=0.11
Troy
-4½
Georgia (27) @
Michigan-St (24)
Michigan-St
ρ=1.0188
Georgia
δ=3.53
Georgia
-7½
Colorado-St (69) @
Fresno-St (63)
Fresno-St
ρ=1.0175
Colorado-St
δ=2.42
Fresno-St
-3
Utah (9) @
Alabama (10)
Utah
ρ=1.0115
Alabama
δ=1.81
Alabama
-10½
Miami-FL (40) @
California (39)
California
ρ=1.0061
California
δ=9.67
California
-7
Florida (2) @
Oklahoma (1)
Oklahoma
ρ=1.0051
Oklahoma
δ=0.47
Florida
-3
Maryland (51) @
Nevada (50)
Nevada
ρ=1.0048
Maryland
δ=0.80
Nevada
-1½
Northern-Illinois (70) @
Louisiana-Tech (72)
Northern-Illinois
ρ=1.0045
Northern-Illinois
δ=7.34
Northern-Illinois
-1½
West-Virginia (21) @
North-Carolina (20)
North-Carolina
ρ=1.0016
North-Carolina
δ=4.84
West Virginia
-1½

Comments:

  • APR and SRS have another assumption not detailed in the disclaimer above: they assume that games are played without a significant game from one to the next. In the case of Penn State, it will be nearly 6 weeks since their regular season closer before they play the Rose Bowl.

  • The number in parentheses after the team names represents APR's end-of-season ranking.

  • Highest-ranked team not invited to a bowl: #47 Bowling Green.

  • Lowest-ranked team invited to a bowl: #92 Memphis.

  • Unlike ARP, SRS does not truncate win margins, which appears to give it an advantage picking NCAA games, where wide-margin wins are much more common than in the NFL.

Friday, December 12, 2008

Division Power and Super Bowl Winners

Division Power and FWDP

APR already gives a way to compute a power index for individual teams. Division power can be computed by averaging teams power index on a per-division basis.

Just as team power indexes can be computed for each week of the regular season, division power indexes can be computed for each week as well. For the purposes of analyzing the division power of Super Bowl winners, I will use the division powers from the final week of the regular season.

For the purpose of future discussion, I will abbreviate Final Week Division Power as FWDP.

Super Bowl Contestants by Division Power

The the list of the strongest divisions by FWDP since 1960 has the divisions of lot of Championship and Super Bowl winning teams on it. Which naturally suggests there might be a correlation between strong FWDP and winning the Super Bowl.

Looking at the seasons from 1990 to 2007, there appears to be a very strong correlation between strong FWDP and winning the Super Bowl:

YearHigh
FWDP
Result Low
FWDP
1990 New York
Giants
beat Buffalo
Bills
1991 Washington
Redskins
beat Buffalo
Bills
1992 Dallas
Cowboys
beat Buffalo
Bills
1993 Dallas
Cowboys
beat Buffalo
Bills
1994 San Francisco
49ers
beat San Diego
Chargers
1995 Dallas
Cowboys
beat Pittsburgh
Steelers
1996 Green Bay
Packers
beat New England
Patriots
1997 Green Bay
Packers
lost to Denver
Broncos
1998 Atlanta
Falcons
lost to Denver
Broncos
1999 Tennessee
Titans
lost to St. Louis
Rams
2000 Baltimore
Ravens
beat New York
Giants
2001 New England
Patriots
beat St. Louis
Rams
2002 Oakland
Raiders
lost to Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
2003 New England
Patriots
beat Carolina
Panthers
2004 New England
Patriots
beat Philadelphia
Eagles
2005 Pittsburgh
Steelers
beat Seattle
Seahawks
2006 Indianapolis
Colts
beat Chicago
Bears
2007 New York
Giants
beat New England
Patriots

That's a 14-4 record (77.7%) for that span of games, which suggests that FWDP is a strong indicator of which team wins the Super Bowl.

Something Happened in 1990

I chose the cut-off year of 1990 advisedly. The results from 1970 to 1989 are quite different:

YearHigh
FWDP
Result Low
FWDP
1970 Dallas
Cowboys
lost to Baltimore
Colts
1971 Dallas
Cowboys
beat Miami
Dolphins
1972 Washington
Redskins
lost to Miami
Dolphins
1973 Miami
Dolphins
beat Minnestoa
Vikings
1974 Pittsburgh
Steelers
beat Minnesota
Vikings
1975 Pittsburgh
Steelers
beat Dallas
Cowboys
1976 Minnesota
Vikings
lost to Oakland
Raiders
1977 Denver
Broncos
lost to Dallas
Cowboys
1978 Pittsburgh
Steelers
beat Dallas
Cowboys
1979 Pittsburgh
Steelers
beat Los Angeles
Rams
1980 Oakland
Raiders
beat Philadelphia
Eagles
1981 Cincinnati
Bengals
lost to San Francisco
49ers
1982 Washington
Redskins
beat Miami
Dolphins
1983 Washington
Redskins
lost to Los Angeles
Raiders
1984 San Francisco
49ers
beat Miami
Dolphins
1985 New England
Patriots
lost to Chicago
Bears
1986 Denver
Broncos
lost to New York
Giants
1987 Washington
Redskins
beat Denver
Broncos
1988 Cincinnati
Bengals
lost to San Francisco
49ers
1989 San Fracisco
49ers
beat Denver
Broncos

That's a 11-9 record (55.0%) for that span of games, which suggests that there is little or no correlation between FWDP and which teams won the Super Bowl during that era.

What Happened in 1990?

If you've followed the NFL for any length of time, you know that they are constantly changing the rules. Often to protect the safety of the players, or to make the game more exciting.

A number of significant changes were made during this era. Free agency and the salary cap were introduced. The post-season was expanded from 5 playoff teams per conference to 6.

I would like to have a definitive answer to put here. However, given the small sample space, the number of rule changes, and the fact that there's no way to "replay" old seasons with different rules, it's probably impossible to say what caused the change.

I would also like to be able to make some claim that the 1990-2007 correlation will continue in the future. But with no specific cause to point to, there's no way to make the case that some subsequent change won't undo (or hasn't already undone) the effect.

The Future

Following the final week of the 2008 season (and for each future season I keep FSPI going), I will post the FWDP for all 8 divisions. In the pick result post following the Super Bowl, I will link back to the FWDP post, note whether or not the team with the better FWDP index won, and update the 1990-present tally.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

NFL Week 15 Picks

2008 Navigation Links

Picks for week 15, based on the week 14 rankings.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com (except Seahawks @ Rams and Vikings @ Cardinals, taken from footballocks.com), and are for comparison purposes only.

Picks for week 15.

GameAPRSRSLine
Detroit Lions @
Indianapolis Colts
Colts
ρ=1.3677
Colts
δ=17.43
Colts
-17
Cleveland Browns @
Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.1906
Eagles
δ=8.00
Eagles
-14
New York Giants @
Dallas Cowboys
Giants
ρ=1.1724
Giants
δ=8.15
Cowboys
-3
San Diego Chargers @
Kansas City Chiefs
Chargers
ρ=1.1627
Chargers
δ=12.46
Chargers
-5
New England Patriots @
Oakland Raiders
Patriots
ρ=1.1475
Patriots
δ=8.99
Patriots
-7
Tennessee Titans @
Houston Texans
Titans
ρ=1.1356
Titans
δ=11.04
Titans
-3
Buffalo Bills @
New York Jets
Jets
ρ=1.1294
Jets
δ=4.88
Jets
-7
Denver Broncos @
Carolina Panthers
Panthers
ρ=1.1148
Panthers
δ=9.36
Panthers
-7½
Green Bay Packers @
Jacksonville Jaguars
Packers
ρ=1.1022
Packers
δ=7.26
Packers
-1½
Seattle Seahawks @
St. Louis Rams
Seahawks
ρ=1.0964
Seahawks
δ=9.07
Seahawks
-3
Washington Redskins @
Cincinnati Bengals
Redskins
ρ=1.0935
Redskins
δ=8.61
Redskins
-7
Minnesota Vikings @
Arizona Cardinals
Vikings
ρ=1.0857
Vikings
δ=2.17
Cardinals
-3
New Orleans Saints @
Chicago Bears
Saints
ρ=1.0516
Saints
δ=1.31
Bears
-3
San Francisco 49ers @
Miami Dolphins
Dolphins
ρ=1.0441
Dolphins
δ=3.15
Dolphins
-6½
Pittsburgh Steelers @
Baltimore Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.0263
Ravens
δ=0.44
Ravens
-2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @
Atlanta Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.0211
Buccaneers
δ=0.78
Falcons
-3

Comments:

  • Disagreements for Giants @ Cowboys, Vikings @ Cardinals, Saints @ Bears, and Buccaneers @ Falcons.

  • The Line likes the Cowboys over the Giants? Did the Giants lose somebody since the whole Plaxico deal? Update: yes. Brandon Jacobs is out.

  • Once again, APR, SRS, and the Line all pick the Packers to win. I wish I had more confidence they were right this time.

  • Another SRS vs APR and Line pick. SRS is now 2-8 in such picks this season, with both correct picks coming early.

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

NFL Week 14 Power Rankings

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)New York
Giants
11-21.5288
(LW × 0.971)
lost by 6
vs Eagles
2 (-)Baltimore
Ravens
9-41.5093
(LW × 1.004)
won by 14
vs Redskins
3 (↑1)Tennessee
Titans
12-11.4722
(LW × 1.005)
won by 19
vs Browns
4 (↓1)Pittsburgh
Steelers
10-31.4707
(LW × 1.002)
won by 7
vs Cowboys
5 (↑4)Philadelphia
Eagles
7-5-11.4284
(LW × 1.038)
won by 6
at Giants
6 (↑4)Carolina
Panthers
10-31.4117
(LW × 1.032)
won by 15
vs Buccaneers
7 (↓1)Atlanta
Falcons
8-51.3995
(LW × 0.993)
lost by 4
at Saints
8 (-)Indianapolis
Colts
9-41.3977
(LW × 1.005)
won by 32
vs Bengals
9 (↓2)Minnesota
Vikings
8-51.3763
(LW × 0.979)
won by 4
at Lions
10 (↓5)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
9-41.3706
(LW × 0.965)
lost by 15
at Panthers
11 (↑1)New Orleans
Saints
7-61.3483
(LW × 1.004)
won by 4
vs Falcons
12 (↑2)Dallas
Cowboys
8-51.3040
(LW × 0.988)
lost by 7
at Steelers
13 (↑6)Houston
Texans
6-71.2964
(LW × 1.021)
won by 3
at Packers
14 (↓3)New York
Jets
8-51.2953
(LW × 0.963)
lost by 10
at 49ers
15 (-)New England
Patriots
8-51.2938
(LW × 0.997)
won by 3
at Seahawks
16 (↑1)San Diego
Chargers
5-81.2930
(LW × 1.016)
won by 27
vs Raiders
17 (↓4)Green Bay
Packers
5-81.2928
(LW × 0.978)
lost by 3
vs Texans
18 (-)Chicago
Bears
7-61.2821
(LW × 1.010)
won by 13
vs Jaguars
19 (↑1)Arizona
Cardinals
8-51.2677
(LW × 1.008)
won by 24
vs Rams
20 (↓4)Denver
Broncos
8-51.2663
(LW × 0.989)
won by 7
vs Chiefs
21 (-)Miami
Dolphins
8-51.2552
(LW × 1.022)
won by 13
at Bills
22 (↑1)Washington
Redskins
7-61.2040
(LW × 0.987)
lost by 14
at Ravens
23 (↑3)San Francisco
49ers
5-81.2022
(LW × 1.036)
won by 10
vs Jets
24 (↓2)Cleveland
Browns
4-91.1998
(LW × 0.978)
lost by 19
at Titans
25 (↓1)Jacksonville
Jaguars
4-91.1729
(LW × 0.989)
lost by 13
at Bears
26 (↓1)Buffalo
Bills
6-71.1469
(LW × 0.971)
lost by 13
vs Dolphins
27 (-)Oakland
Raiders
3-101.1275
(LW × 0.974)
lost by 27
at Chargers
28 (-)Kansas City
Chiefs
2-111.1121
(LW × 0.983)
lost by 7
at Broncos
29 (-)Cincinnati
Bengals
1-11-11.1010
(LW × 0.989)
lost by 32
at Colts
30 (-)Seattle
Seahawks
2-111.1008
(LW × 1.001)
lost by 3
vs Patriots
31 (↑1)Detroit
Lions
0-131.0219
(LW × 1.022)
lost by 4
vs Vikings
32 (↓1)St. Louis
Rams
2-111.0040
(LW × 0.991)
lost by 24
at Cardinals

Comments:

  • Playoff standings detailed here.

  • The Giants lose nearly 3% of their power on the loss to the Eagles, but they were so far ahead of the Ravens, it doesn't cost them the top spot.

  • The Titans and Steelers swap positions, but they are still so close as to be virtually tied.

  • It was just two weeks ago the Eagles were left for dead after being crushed by the Ravens. They're still on the outside looking in for the playoffs, but they could have a chance if they win out.

  • The Cowboys move down in power, but move up in the rankings because the Jets and Packers suffered bigger losses, and no one else was there to take their place.

  • It was just 3 weeks ago the Packers were #5 in the power rankings. They really have been bad since then.

  • The Lions get a (possibly temporary) reprieve from the bottom spot. Maybe the best hope the Lions have for finding a win is that the Rams have won two, in spite of being awful. On the other hand, the Lions don't have Mark Bulger or Steve Jackson.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Cardinals (+10)
ESPN hasn't seemed to notice that Cardinals have been taking advantage of a very soft schedule. With the Vikings and Patriots left on their schedule, they might only win one more game in the regular season.

Dolphins (+9)
APR may be under-rating the Dolphins, but how does ESPN move them up 4 spots on beating the slumping Bills?

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Eagles (-9)
...While ESPN only gives the Eagles a 4-spot bump for beating the first-place Giants? If the Eagles continue to get production from their running game, they're going to keep winning.

Historically Bad Teams Watch

I have to admit that I've lost interest in this since it's become clear that (barring an epic late-season collapse) the Rams are not going to overtake the '76 Buccaneers.

I'm going to put this back on hiatus, with a final recap on the Week 17 power rankings.

NFL Week 14 Pick Results

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line picks counted correct when the favored team wins; they do not have to beat the spread to count as a win.

Pick results for week 14.

Unanimous picks (10-3)

Correctly picked:

Raiders @ Chargers
Vikings @ Lions
Bengals @ Colts
Browns @ Titans
Jaguars @ Bears
Rams @ Cardinals
Patriots @ Seahawks
Cowboys @ Steelers
Chiefs @ Broncos
Redskins @ Ravens

Not so much:

Eagles @ Giants
It was the Giants that were supposed to play solid defense, and the Eagles that struggle on offense, right? Somebody forgot to tell the Eagles.

Texans @ Packers
For the second game in a row, the Packers lose a game they could've won with one more defensive stop. The Packers ability to play defense has fallen off a cliff since they played the Bears. In their first 10 games, Packers' opponents averaged 20.9 points per game. In their last 3 games, they are averaging 36.7.

Jets @ 49ers
Looks like its not just the west coast teams that have trouble when they travel east. The Jets lost at the Chargers, at the Raiders, and now at the 49ers. Keep an eye on week 17: Jets at Seahawks.

Split Picks (APR 1-2) (SRS 1-2) (Line 2-1)

Falcons (APR, SRS) @ Saints (Line)
The Saints seem to be putting on a late season surge. Last week, they came within 3 points of beating the (then) division-leading Buccaneers, and this week they beat the Falcons.

Dolphins (APR, SRS) @ Bills (Line)
The Bills problems just aren't going away. It's not necessarily a bad thing when your quarterback is also your leading rusher, but it is when he gets 53 yards.

Buccaneers (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)
Nothing like a monster running game to cover up passing problems, including a 90 yard touchdown drive that was all on the ground.

Standings:

This weekOverall
APR:11-5130-61-1
SRS:11-5122-69-1
Line:12-4129-61-2
Unanimous:10-3100-37

New power rankings, and next weeks picks to come.

Sunday, December 7, 2008

NCAA: APR's top 30+, Week 15

2008 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to NCAA.

BCS Standings will be added sometime Sunday afternoon. Update: done.


RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)Oklahoma
BCS=1
12-11.7428
(LW × 1.005)
won by 41
vs Missouri
2 (-)Florida
BCS=2
12-11.7340
(LW × 1.002)
won by 11
vs Alabama
3 (-)Texas
BCS=3
11-11.6577
(LW × 0.996)
Bye
4 (-)Penn-St
BCS=8
11-11.6502
(LW × 1.000)
Bye
5 (-)USC
BCS=5
11-11.5965
(LW × 0.992)
won by 21
at UCLA
6 (-)Boise-St
BCS=9
12-01.5744
(LW × 0.998)
Bye
7 (↑1)Ohio-St
BCS=10
10-21.5623
(LW × 1.003)
Bye
8 (↓1)Texas-Tech
BCS=7
11-11.5572
(LW × 0.997)
Bye
9 (↑1)Utah
BCS=6
12-01.5463
(LW × 0.998)
Bye
10 (↓1)Alabama
BCS=4
12-11.5287
(LW × 0.984)
lost by 11
at Florida
11 (↑1)TCU
BCS=11
10-21.5142
(LW × 0.999)
Bye
12 (↑12)Pittsburgh
BCS=20
9-31.4889
(LW × 1.047)
won by 24
at Connecticut
13 (↑2)Rutgers7-51.4706
(LW × 1.003)
won by 49
vs Louisville
14 (-)Cincinnati
BCS=12
11-21.4654
(LW × 0.998)
won by 5
at Hawaii
15 (↑1)Mississippi
BCS=25
8-41.4570
(LW × 0.996)
Bye
16 (↑4)Iowa8-41.4550
(LW × 1.003)
Bye
17 (↑2)Florida-St8-41.4488
(LW × 0.999)
Bye
18 (↓1)Oregon
BCS=17
9-31.4485
(LW × 0.996)
Bye
19 (↓8)Ball-St
BCS=22
12-11.4476
(LW × 0.954)
lost by 18
at Buffalo
20 (↑1)North-Carolina8-41.4395
(LW × 0.994)
Bye
21 (↓3)West-Virginia8-41.4372
(LW × 0.990)
won by 6
vs South-Florida
22 (↑9)Virginia-Tech
BCS=19
9-41.4331
(LW × 1.043)
won by 18
vs Boston-Coll
23 (↓10)Boston-Coll
BCS=24
9-41.4326
(LW × 0.961)
lost by 18
at Virginia-Tech
24 (↓2)Michigan-St
BCS=18
9-31.4309
(LW × 1.000)
Bye
25 (↓2)Clemson7-51.4206
(LW × 0.995)
Bye
26 (↓1)Georgia-Tech
BCS=14
9-31.4176
(LW × 0.998)
Bye
27 (-)Georgia
BCS=15
9-31.4045
(LW × 0.993)
Bye
28 (-)Oklahoma-St
BCS=13
9-31.3962
(LW × 0.999)
Bye
29 (↓3)Missouri
BCS=21
9-41.3949
(LW × 0.986)
lost by 41
at Oklahoma
30 (↓1)BYU
BCS=16
10-21.3884
(LW × 0.998)
Bye
31 (↓1)Nebraska8-41.3828
(LW × 0.999)
Bye
32 (↑7)Navy8-41.3784
(LW × 1.027)
won by 34
at Army
33 (-)NC-State6-61.3669
(LW × 0.998)
Bye
34 (-)Oregon-St8-41.3602
(LW × 0.997)
Bye
35 (↑1)Northwestern
BCS=23
9-31.3597
(LW × 1.001)
Bye
36 (↑19)Buffalo8-51.3501
(LW × 1.068)
won by 18
vs Ball-St

Comments:

  • APR doesn't have a way to deal with games played on a neutral field (mostly because in the NFL it's not a big deal). In such games, "Home" teams should get at least a little more power, and "away" teams a little less.

  • Oklahoma stays #1. If Florida had kicked that final field goal to make it a 14-point margin, they would have moved up to #1.

  • Either way, assuming the Championship Game is Sooners and Gators, APR makes it very close. Hopefully a good game.

  • It's ridiculous that the ACC held its championship game in Tampa, Florida. That's 1,347 (driving) miles from Boston and 750 miles from Blacksburg. No wonder there wasn't anyone in the stadium to watch.

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

NFL Week 14 Picks

2008 Navigation Links

Picks for week 14, based on the week 13 rankings.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com (except Vikings @ Lions, taken from footballocks.com), and are for comparison purposes only.

Picks for week 14.

GameAPRSRSLine
Minnesota Vikings @
Detroit Lions
Vikings
ρ=1.4054
Vikings
δ=17.79
Vikings
-8
Cincinnati Bengals @
Indianapolis Colts
Colts
ρ=1.2497
Colts
δ=11.34
Colts
-13½
St. Louis Rams @
Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=1.2409
Cardinals
δ=17.15
Cardinals
-13½
Washington Redskins @
Baltimore Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.2319
Ravens
δ=9.93
Ravens
-5
Cleveland Browns @
Tennessee Titans
Titans
ρ=1.1951
Titans
δ=10.49
Titans
-13½
New England Patriots @
Seattle Seahawks
Patriots
ρ=1.1804
Patriots
δ=8.13
Patriots
-5
New York Jets @
San Francisco 49ers
Jets
ρ=1.1600
Jets
δ=9.17
Jets
-4
Philadelphia Eagles @
New York Giants
Giants
ρ=1.1445
Giants
δ=5.30
Giants
-8
Kansas City Chiefs @
Denver Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.1317
Broncos
δ=6.16
Broncos
-9
Dallas Cowboys @
Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.1117
Steelers
δ=6.84
Steelers
-3
Oakland Raiders @
San Diego Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.0993
Chargers
δ=9.60
Chargers
-10
Jacksonville Jaguars @
Chicago Bears
Bears
ρ=1.0704
Bears
δ=3.38
Bears
-6½
Atlanta Falcons @
New Orleans Saints
Falcons
ρ=1.0496
Falcons
δ=1.12
Saints
-3
Houston Texans @
Green Bay Packers
Packers
ρ=1.0414
Packers
δ=6.53
Packers
-6
Miami Dolphins @
Buffalo Bills
Dolphins
ρ=1.0396
Dolphins
δ=0.14
Bills
-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @
Carolina Panthers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.0385
Buccaneers
δ=1.65
Panthers
-3

Comments:

  • Disagreements for Falcons @ Saints, Dolphins @ Bills, and Bucs @ Panthers.

  • In case you've been living under a rock, the availability of certain key Vikings players is presently in flux, so the line value for that game should be taken with even more caution than usual. Still, it's hard to imagine the Vikings not being favored in that game by something.

  • I think APR and SRS are right on the Bucs @ Panthers game. The Packers made a lot of mistakes against the Panthers, and still nearly won. The Panthers' passing game has major issues—134 of Delhomme's 177 passing yards came on just three plays.

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

NFL Weeek 13 Power Rankings

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)New York
Giants
11-11.5751
(LW × 1.025)
won by 16
at Redskins
2 (↑1)Baltimore
Ravens
8-41.5034
(LW × 1.018)
won by 31
at Bengals
3 (↑2)Pittsburgh
Steelers
9-31.4675
(LW × 1.045)
won by 23
at Patriots
4 (↓2)Tennessee
Titans
11-11.4656
(LW × 0.992)
won by 37
at Lions
5 (↑1)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
9-31.4205
(LW × 1.011)
won by 3
vs Saints
6 (↑2)Atlanta
Falcons
8-41.4093
(LW × 1.020)
won by 6
at Chargers
7 (↑3)Minnesota
Vikings
7-51.4051
(LW × 1.025)
won by 20
vs Bears
8 (↓1)Indianapolis
Colts
8-41.3911
(LW × 1.006)
won by 4
at Browns
9 (↑5)Philadelphia
Eagles
6-5-11.3762
(LW × 1.041)
won by 28
vs Cardinals
10 (↑2)Carolina
Panthers
9-31.3678
(LW × 1.020)
won by 4
at Packers
11 (↓7)New York
Jets
8-41.3454
(LW × 0.922)
lost by 17
vs Broncos
12 (↑1)New Orleans
Saints
6-61.3427
(LW × 1.011)
lost by 3
at Buccaneers
13 (↓2)Green Bay
Packers
5-71.3218
(LW × 0.980)
lost by 4
vs Panthers
14 (↑3)Dallas
Cowboys
8-41.3200
(LW × 1.018)
won by 25
vs Seahawks
15 (↓6)New England
Patriots
7-51.2980
(LW × 0.946)
lost by 23
vs Steelers
16 (↑10)Denver
Broncos
7-51.2798
(LW × 1.080)
won by 17
at Jets
17 (↑1)San Diego
Chargers
4-81.2732
(LW × 0.985)
lost by 6
vs Falcons
18 (↓3)Chicago
Bears
6-61.2700
(LW × 0.974)
lost by 20
at Vikings
19 (↑2)Houston
Texans
5-71.2692
(LW × 1.018)
won by 13
vs Jaguars
20 (↓4)Arizona
Cardinals
7-51.2575
(LW × 0.968)
lost by 28
at Eagles
21 (↓2)Miami
Dolphins
7-51.2280
(LW × 0.978)
won by 4
at Rams
22 (↑1)Cleveland
Browns
4-81.2264
(LW × 1.001)
lost by 4
vs Colts
23 (↓1)Washington
Redskins
7-51.2205
(LW × 0.983)
lost by 16
vs Giants
24 (-)Jacksonville
Jaguars
4-81.1864
(LW × 0.994)
lost by 13
at Texans
25 (↓5)Buffalo
Bills
6-61.1812
(LW × 0.946)
lost by 7
vs 49ers
26 (↑3)San Francisco
49ers
4-81.1599
(LW × 1.046)
won by 7
at Bills
27 (↓2)Oakland
Raiders
3-91.1582
(LW × 0.971)
lost by 7
vs Chiefs
28 (↑2)Kansas City
Chiefs
2-101.1308
(LW × 1.044)
won by 7
at Raiders
29 (↓2)Cincinnati
Bengals
1-10-11.1132
(LW × 0.993)
lost by 31
vs Ravens
30 (↓2)Seattle
Seahawks
2-101.0997
(LW × 0.983)
lost by 25
at Cowboys
31 (-)St. Louis
Rams
2-101.0134
(LW × 0.988)
lost by 4
vs Dolphins
32 (-)Detroit
Lions
0-120.9998
(LW × 0.995)
lost by 37
vs Titans

Comments:

  • The Titans pay the price for playing the very weak Lions, and the Ravens and Steelers are there to take advantage. The Titans don't face another strong team until weeks 16 and 17, so they could have a tough time moving back up.

  • The NFC has 7 teams in the top 10. The AFC has 7 team in the bottom 10.

  • 10 teams are at or above 8 wins. 10 teams are at or above 8 losses.

  • APR finally ranks the Broncos above the Chargers.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Redskins (+10)
APR and ESPN both drop the Redskins 1 spot on their loss to the Giants. Their widest margin of victory was 8 points (over the Lions in week 8).

Cardinals (+8)
The Cardinals have tanked against good teams this year, and taken advantage of a soft schedule. Dallas is the only team they've beat that's ranked higher than #21 this week.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Ravens (-8)
ESPN moves the Ravens up 3 spots on their win over the Bengals. Except for losses to the Colts and Giants, the Ravens have looked very solid this year, especially considering they have a rookie QB.

Vikings (-8)
The Vikings have gone 4-1 in their last 5. They still have to play the Cardinals, Falcons, and Giants, so they'll have a chance to prove if they belong in the top 10.

Eagles (-8)
The Eagles get another convincing win, and APR moves them back into the top 10. But the Eagles are 0-3 in divisional games, which is a huge issue when there are only two wildcard spots available.

Historically Bad Teams Watch

The Rams move away from the #1 spot, but now they have new company in the top 10.

RankTeamNet Pts/GameW-LNext Week
1 1976 Buccaneers-20.500-14n/a
2 1972 Patriots-18.143-11n/a
3 1973 Oilers-17.711-13n/a
4 1967 Falcons-17.641-12n/a
5 2008 Rams-16.752-10@ Cardinals
6 1990 Patriots-16.561-15n/a
7 2000 Browns-16.123-13n/a
8 2008 Lions-15.830-12vs Vikings
...............
262008 Bengals-13.251-10-1vs Redskins

The Chiefs win moves them out to spot #66.

Monday, December 1, 2008

NFL Week 13 Pick Results

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line picks counted correct when the favored team wins; they do not have to beat the spread to count as a win.

Pick results for week 13.

Unanimous picks (8-4)

Correctly picked:

Titans @ Lions
Seahawks @ Cowboys
Cardinals @ Eagles
Ravens @ Bengals
Giants @ Redskins
Dolphins @ Rams
Colts @ Browns
Saints @ Buccaneers

Not so much:

49ers @ Bills
Did the Bills leave all their offense in Kansas City? Somehow they couldn't score 11 points on the 49ers.

Panthers @ Packers
A lot of things went wrong for the Packers. Special teams gave them short fields: the Panthers had 12 drives; only 3 started inside their 30 yard line. The defense gave up some big plays: 98 of Delhomme's 177 passing yards came on 2 plays. The offense was not without guilt either: an early bad snap let to a Panthers' touchdown, and a late interception ended the Packers' final come-back threat.

Chiefs @ Raiders
The Cheifs are bad. The Raiders are bad. The Chiefs were (momentarily) less bad on Sunday.

Broncos @ Jets
The Broncos are back to "come-back" mode, at least this week. They played good offense, and didn't give away too much on defense. The Broncos are now 4-0 when they hold their opponents under 24 points.

Split Picks (APR 4-0) (SRS 2-2) (Line 2-2)

Steelers (APR, SRS) @ Patriots (Line)
The Patriots are getting Lines on last years reputaton. The fact is, they're still good enough to beat the lower-tier teams, and they've been taking advantage. But they are 2-3 against teams in the top half of the power rankings (including the split with the Jets, and the win over the Broncos, who are just this week at #16).

Falcons (APR, SRS) @ Chargers (Line)
The Chargers are another team getting lines on last year's reputation. This could've been much worse—all the Chargers' scores came off of turnovers, and their longest scoring drive was just 35 yards.

Bears (SRS) @ Vikings (APR, Line)
Jaguars (SRS) @ Texans (APR, Line)
SRS needs to discount early-season success, especially when it's not matched with late season success.

Standings:

This weekOverall
APR:12-4119-56-1
SRS:10-6111-64-1
Line:10-6117-57-2
Unanimous: 8-4 90-34

New power rankings, and next weeks picks to come.

Sunday, November 30, 2008

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, week 14

2008 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to NCAA.

BCS Standings will be added sometime Sunday afternoon. Update: done.


RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (↑2)Oklahoma
BCS=2
11-11.7337
(LW × 1.020)
won by 20
at Oklahoma-St
2 (↓1)Florida
BCS=4
11-11.7304
(LW × 1.012)
won by 30
at Florida-St
3 (↓1)Texas
BCS=3
11-11.6638
(LW × 0.976)
won by 40
vs Texas-A&M
4 (-)Penn-St
BCS=8
11-11.6499
(LW × 0.998)
Bye
5 (-)USC
BCS=5
10-11.6096
(LW × 1.009)
won by 35
vs Notre-Dame
6 (↑3)Boise-St
BCS=9
12-01.5772
(LW × 1.015)
won by 51
vs Fresno-St
7 (↓1)Texas-Tech
BCS=7
11-11.5613
(LW × 0.979)
won by 7
vs Baylor
8 (-)Ohio-St
BCS=10
10-21.5578
(LW × 1.000)
Bye
9 (↓2)Alabama
BCS=1
12-01.5533
(LW × 0.991)
won by 36
vs Auburn
10 (-)Utah
BCS=6
12-01.5491
(LW × 1.000)
Bye
11 (↑1)Ball-St
BCS=12
12-01.5172
(LW × 1.009)
won by 23
vs W-Michigan
12 (↓1)TCU
BCS=11
10-21.5160
(LW × 1.002)
Bye
13 (↑2)Boston-Coll
BCS=17
9-31.4913
(LW × 1.007)
won by 7
vs Maryland
14 (↑2)Cincinnati
BCS=13
10-21.4685
(LW × 0.996)
won by 20
vs Syracuse
15 (↑5)Rutgers6-51.4665
(LW × 1.002)
Bye
16 (↑3)Mississippi8-41.4629
(LW × 0.995)
won by 45
vs Mississippi-St
17 (↑17)Oregon
BCS=19
9-31.4538
(LW × 1.066)
won by 27
at Oregon-St
18 (-)West-Virginia7-41.4523
(LW × 0.986)
lost by 4
at Pittsburgh
19 (↓6)Florida-St
BCS=24
8-41.4506
(LW × 0.969)
lost by 30
vs Florida
20 (↑2)Iowa8-41.4504
(LW × 0.998)
Bye
21 (↑3)North-Carolina8-41.4481
(LW × 1.011)
won by 8
at Duke
22 (↑3)Michigan-St
BCS=21
9-31.4311
(LW × 1.002)
Bye
23 (↑9)Clemson7-51.4281
(LW × 1.039)
won by 17
vs South-Carolina
24 (↑3)Pittsburgh
BCS=23
8-31.4223
(LW × 1.018)
won by 4
vs West-Virginia
25 (↑3)Georgia-Tech
BCS=15
9-31.4207
(LW × 1.023)
won by 3
at Georgia
26 (↓12)Missouri
BCS=20
9-31.4151
(LW × 0.952)
lost by 3
vs Kansas
27 (↓10)Georgia
BCS=16
9-31.4138
(LW × 0.959)
lost by 3
vs Georgia-Tech
28 (↓7)Oklahoma-St
BCS=14
9-31.3977
(LW × 0.956)
lost by 20
vs Oklahoma
29 (-)BYU
BCS=18
10-21.3908
(LW × 1.003)
Bye
30 (↓4)Nebraska8-41.3844
(LW × 0.988)
won by 9
vs Colorado
31 (↓1)Virginia-Tech
BCS=25
8-41.3742
(LW × 0.992)
won by 3
vs Virginia
32 (↑1)Connecticut7-41.3739
(LW × 1.001)
Bye
33 (↑5)NC-State6-61.3695
(LW × 1.027)
won by 10
vs Miami-FL
34 (↓11)Oregon-St8-41.3649
(LW × 0.952)
lost by 27
vs Oregon
35 (↑1)California7-41.3631
(LW × 1.003)
Bye
36 (↓1)Northwestern
BCS=22
9-31.3580
(LW × 0.999)
Bye

Comments:

  • Oklahoma moves up to the #1 spot, but their power index is close enough to Florida's to be virtually tied.

    Florida will have a chance to retake the #1 spot when they play Alabama next week.

  • As I expected, Texas' power index takes a big hit in spite of a 40-point win over now 4-8 Texas A&M. They're now a significant way below #1 Oklahoma.

  • How can the Big 12 South leave their division winner (even at the 5th tie-breaker level) up to the BCS? Might as well just make it a coin-toss.

  • Mississippi has had an amazing season. They were 3-4 at one point before finishing on a 5-game winning streak. None of their losses have been by more than 7 points. Whoever gets them in a bowl game could be in for a very tough game.

  • As predicted (or at least, suggested was possible), LSU finishes the regular season 7-5.