Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Picks for the Wildcard games
Based on the week 17 rankings. Line values are taken from yahoo.com, and are for comparison purposes only.
| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
| Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals | Falcons ρ=1.1365 | Falcons δ=5.62 | Falcons -2 |
| Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins | Ravens ρ=1.1255 | Ravens δ=10.14 | Ravens -3 |
| Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers | Colts ρ=1.0521 | Colts δ=1.35 | Colts -1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings | Eagles ρ=1.0228 | Eagles δ=3.87 | Eagles -3 |
Comments:
Unanimous picks for the road teams.
In fact, APR ranks every road team (Ravens=1, Colts=3, Eagles=7 Falcons=9) above every home team (Chargers=10, Vikings=11, Dolphins=12, Cardinals=20).
Isn't it a little surprising that the Falcons are only getting 2 points on the Cardinals? The Cardinals only have one loss by less than 7...
One moderately bright spot for the Cardinals: they were 2-2 at home against teams with winning records this season, including beating the playoff-bound Dolphins.
Final Week Division Power
Read this for a description of FWDP.
| Division | FWDP | Playoff Teams |
| AFC South | 1.3473 | Titans, Colts |
| NFC East | 1.3442 | Giants, Eagles |
| NFC South | 1.3437 | Panthers, Falcons |
| AFC North | 1.3335 | Steelers, Ravens |
| AFC East | 1.3013 | Dolphins |
| NFC North | 1.2325 | Vikings |
| AFC West | 1.2163 | Chargers |
| NFC West | 1.1622 | Cardinals |
Comments:
I haven't done any analysis of how FWDP corresponds to playoff results in non-Super Bowl playoff games.
The top 4 divisions are all very close. Unless one of the teams from the lower-ranked divisions manages to get to the Super Bowl, this could easily be another year the Super Bowl winner doesn't have the strongest FWDP.
The NFC South was the top division (and the AFC South third) until week 17. That end-of-season losing streak by the Buccaneers really hurt that division.
The four home teams represent the four weakest divisions.
