Tuesday, February 5, 2013

NFL: Super Bowl Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Ravens @ 49ers (APR, SRS, Line)
Joe Flacco had a hot-and-cold regular season. In the 9 games he had a passer rating of 83 or better, the Ravens were 8-1. The problem was he had 7 games with a passer rating of 76.5 or worse, and the Ravens were 2-5 in those games (the two wins coming against the Chiefs and the Leftwich-lead Steelers).
In the playoffs, Flacco got on an amazing hot streak, passing for 1140 yards, 11 touchdowns, and a 117.1 passer rating. There defense wasn't really that amazing (including a couple games they gave up 31 or more points), but with Flacco playing lights out, they just needed to be "OK", and they were.
For the 49ers, defense has been an issue for a while now. In their first 13 games, the allowed an average of 14.2 points per game. Since then (and including the playoffs), they've allowed an average of 29.7 points per game—more than double the earlier average.
Colin Kaepernick I think did OK, including taking a team that was down by 3 scores in the 3rd quarter and getting them back into the game. There were some points in the game (including that interception and the 49ers final possession) where his inexperience showed. But this was a known factor going into the playoffs. I think if the 49ers defense had played as well as they had for their first 13 games, the Super Bowl never would've come down to one last drive to get a go-ahead touchdown.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 0-1 6-554.5%
SRS 0-1 7-463.6%
Line 0-1 8-372.7%

Epilogue

That's it for the 2012 season. I'm kind of burned out on blogging about football right now, so I think I'm going to take a pass on the rest of the season wrap-up posts, and let fspi go dark for the off season.

I may do some off-season stuff in a few months if my interest rebounds, but if not, I'll be back in July with the Pythagorean Projection post for the upcoming season. Until then, thanks for reading, and I'll see you next fall.

Sunday, February 3, 2013

NFL: Super Bowl Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Broncos1.0815
(LW × 1.0138)
13-4Bye
2 (↑2)Ravens1.0686
(LW × 1.0367)
14-6Won by 3
@ 49ers
3 (↓1)Seahawks1.0557
(LW × 0.9960)
12-6Bye
4 (↓1)49ers1.0348
(LW × 0.9830)
13-5-1Lost by 3
vs Ravens
5 (↑1)Bengals0.9884
(LW × 1.0109)
10-7Bye
6 (↓1)Redskins0.9869
(LW × 1.0083)
10-7Bye
7 (-)Patriots0.9728
(LW × 1.0017)
13-5Bye
8 (-)Packers0.9626
(LW × 0.9961)
12-6Bye
9 (-)Falcons0.9574
(LW × 0.9989)
14-4Bye
10 (-)Giants0.9458
(LW × 1.0073)
9-7Bye
11 (-)Panthers0.9399
(LW × 1.0050)
7-9Bye
12 (-)Vikings0.9253
(LW × 0.9968)
10-7Bye
13 (↑1)Steelers0.9235
(LW × 1.0143)
8-8Bye
14 (↓1)Saints0.9175
(LW × 1.0019)
7-9Bye
15 (↑1)Cowboys0.9006
(LW × 1.0070)
8-8Bye
16 (↓1)Bears0.8993
(LW × 0.9959)
10-6Bye
17 (-)Rams0.8698
(LW × 0.9947)
7-8-1Bye
18 (↑1)Colts0.8686
(LW × 1.0048)
11-6Bye
19 (↓1)Texans0.8680
(LW × 1.0019)
13-5Bye
20 (↑1)Chargers0.8627
(LW × 1.0104)
7-9Bye
21 (↓1)Buccaneers0.8564
(LW × 1.0029)
7-9Bye
22 (↑1)Browns0.8405
(LW × 1.0121)
5-11Bye
23 (↓1)Dolphins0.8289
(LW × 0.9976)
7-9Bye
24 (-)Bills0.7900
(LW × 0.9984)
6-10Bye
25 (↑2)Raiders0.7783
(LW × 1.0098)
4-12Bye
26 (↓1)Lions0.7740
(LW × 0.9977)
4-12Bye
27 (↓1)Titans0.7708
(LW × 0.9998)
6-10Bye
28 (-)Jets0.7663
(LW × 0.9992)
6-10Bye
29 (-)Cardinals0.7518
(LW × 0.9941)
5-11Bye
30 (-)Eagles0.7474
(LW × 1.0054)
4-12Bye
31 (-)Chiefs0.7256
(LW × 1.0097)
2-14Bye
32 (-)Jaguars0.6623
(LW × 0.9998)
2-14Bye

Comments:

  • The Ravens continue the recent theme that it doesn't matter if you have a bad regular season, if you can get hot in the playoffs.

  • Hard to argue against Joe Flacco as MVP, especially if you consider the Ravens' playoff run as a whole. The Ravens scored at least 24 points in every one of their playoff games. And won, in spite of giving up 35 to the Broncos, and 31 to the 49ers.

  • Thanks to the 49ers' 17-point 3rd quarter, the streak of Super Bowls within 1 score in the 4th quarter continues. (Bucs/Raiders was the last Super Bowl that was not.)