Tuesday, February 5, 2013

NFL: Super Bowl Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Ravens @ 49ers (APR, SRS, Line)
Joe Flacco had a hot-and-cold regular season. In the 9 games he had a passer rating of 83 or better, the Ravens were 8-1. The problem was he had 7 games with a passer rating of 76.5 or worse, and the Ravens were 2-5 in those games (the two wins coming against the Chiefs and the Leftwich-lead Steelers).
In the playoffs, Flacco got on an amazing hot streak, passing for 1140 yards, 11 touchdowns, and a 117.1 passer rating. There defense wasn't really that amazing (including a couple games they gave up 31 or more points), but with Flacco playing lights out, they just needed to be "OK", and they were.
For the 49ers, defense has been an issue for a while now. In their first 13 games, the allowed an average of 14.2 points per game. Since then (and including the playoffs), they've allowed an average of 29.7 points per game—more than double the earlier average.
Colin Kaepernick I think did OK, including taking a team that was down by 3 scores in the 3rd quarter and getting them back into the game. There were some points in the game (including that interception and the 49ers final possession) where his inexperience showed. But this was a known factor going into the playoffs. I think if the 49ers defense had played as well as they had for their first 13 games, the Super Bowl never would've come down to one last drive to get a go-ahead touchdown.


APR 0-1 6-554.5%
SRS 0-1 7-463.6%
Line 0-1 8-372.7%


That's it for the 2012 season. I'm kind of burned out on blogging about football right now, so I think I'm going to take a pass on the rest of the season wrap-up posts, and let fspi go dark for the off season.

I may do some off-season stuff in a few months if my interest rebounds, but if not, I'll be back in July with the Pythagorean Projection post for the upcoming season. Until then, thanks for reading, and I'll see you next fall.