Wednesday, December 10, 2008

NFL Week 15 Picks

2008 Navigation Links

Picks for week 15, based on the week 14 rankings.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com (except Seahawks @ Rams and Vikings @ Cardinals, taken from footballocks.com), and are for comparison purposes only.

Picks for week 15.

GameAPRSRSLine
Detroit Lions @
Indianapolis Colts
Colts
ρ=1.3677
Colts
δ=17.43
Colts
-17
Cleveland Browns @
Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.1906
Eagles
δ=8.00
Eagles
-14
New York Giants @
Dallas Cowboys
Giants
ρ=1.1724
Giants
δ=8.15
Cowboys
-3
San Diego Chargers @
Kansas City Chiefs
Chargers
ρ=1.1627
Chargers
δ=12.46
Chargers
-5
New England Patriots @
Oakland Raiders
Patriots
ρ=1.1475
Patriots
δ=8.99
Patriots
-7
Tennessee Titans @
Houston Texans
Titans
ρ=1.1356
Titans
δ=11.04
Titans
-3
Buffalo Bills @
New York Jets
Jets
ρ=1.1294
Jets
δ=4.88
Jets
-7
Denver Broncos @
Carolina Panthers
Panthers
ρ=1.1148
Panthers
δ=9.36
Panthers
-7½
Green Bay Packers @
Jacksonville Jaguars
Packers
ρ=1.1022
Packers
δ=7.26
Packers
-1½
Seattle Seahawks @
St. Louis Rams
Seahawks
ρ=1.0964
Seahawks
δ=9.07
Seahawks
-3
Washington Redskins @
Cincinnati Bengals
Redskins
ρ=1.0935
Redskins
δ=8.61
Redskins
-7
Minnesota Vikings @
Arizona Cardinals
Vikings
ρ=1.0857
Vikings
δ=2.17
Cardinals
-3
New Orleans Saints @
Chicago Bears
Saints
ρ=1.0516
Saints
δ=1.31
Bears
-3
San Francisco 49ers @
Miami Dolphins
Dolphins
ρ=1.0441
Dolphins
δ=3.15
Dolphins
-6½
Pittsburgh Steelers @
Baltimore Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.0263
Ravens
δ=0.44
Ravens
-2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @
Atlanta Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.0211
Buccaneers
δ=0.78
Falcons
-3

Comments:

  • Disagreements for Giants @ Cowboys, Vikings @ Cardinals, Saints @ Bears, and Buccaneers @ Falcons.

  • The Line likes the Cowboys over the Giants? Did the Giants lose somebody since the whole Plaxico deal? Update: yes. Brandon Jacobs is out.

  • Once again, APR, SRS, and the Line all pick the Packers to win. I wish I had more confidence they were right this time.

  • Another SRS vs APR and Line pick. SRS is now 2-8 in such picks this season, with both correct picks coming early.