Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to
NCAA.
Line values are taken
from yahoo.com,
and are for comparison purposes only.
Picks for the Bowl Games.
| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
| Memphis (92) @ South-Florida (48) | South-Florida ρ=1.1574 | South-Florida δ=9.64 | South-Florida -12½ |
| Boston-Coll (23) @ Vanderbilt (64) | Boston-Coll ρ=1.1555 | Boston-Coll δ=4.91 | Boston-Coll -4 |
| LSU (59) @ Georgia-Tech (26) | Georgia-Tech ρ=1.1295 | Georgia-Tech δ=3.82 | Georgia-Tech -4 |
| Kentucky (81) @ East-Carolina (45) | East-Carolina ρ=1.1290 | Kentucky δ=0.66 | East-Carolina -2 |
| Tulsa (55) @ Ball-St (19) | Ball-St ρ=1.1240 | Ball-St δ=0.59 | Ball-St -3 |
| Wisconsin (42) @ Florida-St (17) | Florida-St ρ=1.0999 | Florida-St δ=5.93 | Florida-St -5 |
| South-Carolina (41) @ Iowa (16) | Iowa ρ=1.0953 | Iowa δ=10.32 | Iowa -3½ |
| Oregon-St (34) @ Pittsburgh (12) | Pittsburgh ρ=1.0946 | Oregon-St δ=4.19 | Oregon-St -3 |
| NC-State (33) @ Rutgers (13) | Rutgers ρ=1.0758 | Rutgers δ=6.86 | NC-State -7 |
| Florida-Atlantic (82) @ Cent-Michigan (61) | Cent-Michigan ρ=1.0753 | Cent-Michigan δ=6.87 | Cent-Michigan -7 |
| Mississippi (15) @ Texas-Tech (8) | Texas-Tech ρ=1.0687 | Texas-Tech δ=7.65 | Texas-Tech -5½ |
| Kansas (49) @ Minnesota (68) | Kansas ρ=1.0679 | Kansas δ=10.81 | Kansas -10 |
| Ohio-St (7) @ Texas (3) | Texas ρ=1.0610 | Texas δ=13.10 | Texas -9½ |
| BYU (30) @ Arizona (46) | BYU ρ=1.0601 | Arizona δ=5.04 | Arizona -3 |
| Boise-St (6) @ TCU (11) | Boise-St ρ=1.0397 | TCU δ=3.69 | TCU -2½ |
| Oklahoma-St (28) @ Oregon (18) | Oregon ρ=1.0374 | Oklahoma-St δ=1.80 | Oklahoma-St -4 |
| Rice (38) @ W-Michigan (52) | Rice ρ=1.0349 | Rice δ=2.24 | Rice -3 |
| Penn-St (4) @ USC (5) | Penn-St ρ=1.0336 | USC δ=3.50 | USC -10 |
| Buffalo (36) @ Connecticut (44) | Buffalo ρ=1.0280 | Connecticut δ=2.88 | Connecticut -4½ |
| Clemson (25) @ Nebraska (31) | Clemson ρ=1.0273 | Nebraska δ=2.27 | Clemson -2½ |
| Missouri (29) @ Northwestern (35) | Missouri ρ=1.0259 | Missouri δ=17.21 | Missouri -13 |
| Houston (57) @ Air-Force (54) | Air-Force ρ=1.0255 | Air-Force δ=0.14 | Houston -3 |
| Wake-Forest (37) @ Navy (32) | Navy ρ=1.0234 | Wake-Forest δ=2.39 | Wake-Forest -3 |
| Virginia-Tech (22) @ Cincinnati (14) | Cincinnati ρ=1.0225 | Virginia-Tech δ=2.06 | Cincinnati -1½ |
| Hawaii (65) @ Notre-Dame (58) | Notre-Dame ρ=1.0219 | Notre-Dame δ=9.28 | Hawaii -1½ |
| Southern-Miss (43) @ Troy (53) | Southern-Miss ρ=1.0200 | Southern-Miss δ=0.11 | Troy -4½ |
| Georgia (27) @ Michigan-St (24) | Michigan-St ρ=1.0188 | Georgia δ=3.53 | Georgia -7½ |
| Colorado-St (69) @ Fresno-St (63) | Fresno-St ρ=1.0175 | Colorado-St δ=2.42 | Fresno-St -3 |
| Utah (9) @ Alabama (10) | Utah ρ=1.0115 | Alabama δ=1.81 | Alabama -10½ |
| Miami-FL (40) @ California (39) | California ρ=1.0061 | California δ=9.67 | California -7 |
| Florida (2) @ Oklahoma (1) | Oklahoma ρ=1.0051 | Oklahoma δ=0.47 | Florida -3 |
| Maryland (51) @ Nevada (50) | Nevada ρ=1.0048 | Maryland δ=0.80 | Nevada -1½ |
| Northern-Illinois (70) @ Louisiana-Tech (72) | Northern-Illinois ρ=1.0045 | Northern-Illinois δ=7.34 | Northern-Illinois -1½ |
| West-Virginia (21) @ North-Carolina (20) | North-Carolina ρ=1.0016 | North-Carolina δ=4.84 | West Virginia -1½ |
Comments:
APR and SRS have another assumption not detailed in the disclaimer above: they assume that games are played without a significant game from one to the next. In the case of Penn State, it will be nearly 6 weeks since their regular season closer before they play the Rose Bowl.
The number in parentheses after the team names represents APR's end-of-season ranking.
Highest-ranked team not invited to a bowl: #47 Bowling Green.
Lowest-ranked team invited to a bowl: #92 Memphis.
Unlike ARP, SRS does not truncate win margins, which appears to give it an advantage picking NCAA games, where wide-margin wins are much more common than in the NFL.
