Picks for week 17, based on the week 16 rankings.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken
from yahoo.com,
and are for comparison purposes only.
| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
| St. Louis Rams @ Atlanta Falcons | Falcons ρ=1.4364 | Falcons δ=21.28 | Falcons -14½ |
| Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Steelers ρ=1.3118 | Steelers δ=12.14 | Steelers -10½ |
| Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens | Ravens ρ=1.2817 | Ravens δ=10.98 | Ravens -12½ |
| Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers | Packers ρ=1.2448 | Packers δ=16.92 | Packers -9½ |
| Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers | Chargers ρ=1.1490 | Chargers δ=7.93 | Chargers -8½ |
| Oakland Raiders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Buccaneers ρ=1.1401 | Buccaneers δ=12.45 | Buccaneers -13 |
| New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills | Patriots ρ=1.1399 | Patriots δ=6.24 | Patriots -6½ |
| Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals | Bengals ρ=1.0810 | Bengals δ=0.71 | Bengals -3 |
| New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings | Giants ρ=1.0718 | Giants δ=4.49 | Vikings -6½ |
| Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts | Titans ρ=1.0597 | Titans δ=5.83 | Titans -3 |
| Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints | Panthers ρ=1.0488 | Panthers δ=1.53 | Panthers -3 |
| Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles | Eagles ρ=1.0383 | Eagles δ=3.39 | Eagles -1½ |
| Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals | Cardinals ρ=1.0309 | Cardinals δ=4.71 | Cardinals -6 |
| Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets | Dolphins ρ=1.0233 | Jets δ=1.88 | Jets -2½ |
| Washington Redskins @ San Francisco 49ers | Redskins ρ=1.0170 | Redskins δ=4.35 | 49ers -3 |
| Chicago Bears @ Houston Texans | Bears ρ=1.0135 | Bears δ=4.14 | Texans -3 |
Comments:
Disagreements for Giants @ Vikings, Dolphins @ Jets, Redskins @ 49ers, and Bears @ Texans.
APR and SRS do not take into account that some teams have clinched their post-season seeding, and probably won't be playing all-out this week. Titans @ Colts, in particular, is likely to be a battle of the backups after the first or second series for both teams.
And the Vikings are only favored to win because the Giants have nothing to play for this week. On the other hand, the Vikings will have trouble beating even the Giants' backups if they lose 4 fumbles again.
Surely the Packers can beat the Lions at Lambeau field. Right? Right?
The Texans have run hot and cold this season (beating the Titans, then losing to the Raiders), but they are 5-2 at home this season. Of course, the Bears aren't really the type of team to lay down, even if they are likely to be eliminated from the playoffs.
Amazingly, Mike Singletary has a chance to go 5-4 as head coach this season. If the 49ers have enough sense to sign him on long-term, the Cardinals should have a solid challenger for the NFC West next year.
