Picks for week 14, based on the week 13 rankings.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken
from yahoo.com (except
Vikings @ Lions, taken
from footballocks.com),
and are for comparison purposes only.
Picks for week 14.
| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
| Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions | Vikings ρ=1.4054 | Vikings δ=17.79 | Vikings -8 |
| Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts | Colts ρ=1.2497 | Colts δ=11.34 | Colts -13½ |
| St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals | Cardinals ρ=1.2409 | Cardinals δ=17.15 | Cardinals -13½ |
| Washington Redskins @ Baltimore Ravens | Ravens ρ=1.2319 | Ravens δ=9.93 | Ravens -5 |
| Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans | Titans ρ=1.1951 | Titans δ=10.49 | Titans -13½ |
| New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks | Patriots ρ=1.1804 | Patriots δ=8.13 | Patriots -5 |
| New York Jets @ San Francisco 49ers | Jets ρ=1.1600 | Jets δ=9.17 | Jets -4 |
| Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants | Giants ρ=1.1445 | Giants δ=5.30 | Giants -8 |
| Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos | Broncos ρ=1.1317 | Broncos δ=6.16 | Broncos -9 |
| Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Steelers ρ=1.1117 | Steelers δ=6.84 | Steelers -3 |
| Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers | Chargers ρ=1.0993 | Chargers δ=9.60 | Chargers -10 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears | Bears ρ=1.0704 | Bears δ=3.38 | Bears -6½ |
| Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints | Falcons ρ=1.0496 | Falcons δ=1.12 | Saints -3 |
| Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers | Packers ρ=1.0414 | Packers δ=6.53 | Packers -6 |
| Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills | Dolphins ρ=1.0396 | Dolphins δ=0.14 | Bills -1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers | Buccaneers ρ=1.0385 | Buccaneers δ=1.65 | Panthers -3 |
Comments:
Disagreements for Falcons @ Saints, Dolphins @ Bills, and Bucs @ Panthers.
In case you've been living under a rock, the availability of certain key Vikings players is presently in flux, so the line value for that game should be taken with even more caution than usual. Still, it's hard to imagine the Vikings not being favored in that game by something.
I think APR and SRS are right on the Bucs @ Panthers game. The Packers made a lot of mistakes against the Panthers, and still nearly won. The Panthers' passing game has major issues—134 of Delhomme's 177 passing yards came on just three plays.
