Wednesday, December 17, 2008

NFL Week 16 Picks

2008 Navigation Links

Picks for week 16, based on the week 15 rankings.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com, and are for comparison purposes only.

Picks for week 16.

GameAPRSRSLine
New Orleans Saints @
Detroit Lions
Saints
ρ=1.2598
Saints
δ=14.79
Saints
-6½
Houston Texans @
Oakland Raiders
Texans
ρ=1.2320
Texans
δ=10.90
Texans
-7
Philadelphia Eagles @
Washington Redskins
Eagles
ρ=1.2182
Eagles
δ=9.26
Eagles
-5
San Francisco 49ers @
St. Louis Rams
49ers
ρ=1.2074
49ers
δ=11.53
49ers
-5
New York Jets @
Seattle Seahawks
Jets
ρ=1.1570
Jets
δ=9.48
Jets
-5
Indianapolis Colts @
Jacksonville Jaguars
Colts
ρ=1.1482
Colts
δ=6.42
Colts
-6
Miami Dolphins @
Kansas City Chiefs
Dolphins
ρ=1.1441
Dolphins
δ=7.53
Dolphins
-4
Baltimore Ravens @
Dallas Cowboys
Ravens
ρ=1.0897
Ravens
δ=5.96
Cowboys
-4½
Arizona Cardinals @
New England Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.0833
Patriots
δ=0.36
Patriots
-8
San Diego Chargers @
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.0736
Buccaneers
δ=3.41
Buccaneers
-3
Buffalo Bills @
Denver Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.0688
Bills
δ=0.68
Broncos
-7
Pittsburgh Steelers @
Tennessee Titans
Steelers
ρ=1.0388
Titans
δ=0.67
Steelers
-1
Cincinnati Bengals @
Cleveland Browns
Browns
ρ=1.0355
Browns
δ=6.16
Browns
-3
Atlanta Falcons @
Minnesota Vikings
Vikings
ρ=1.0302
Vikings
δ=0.46
Vikings
-3
Carolina Panthers @
New York Giants
Giants
ρ=1.0276
Giants
δ=2.16
Giants
-3
Green Bay Packers @
Chicago Bears
Bears
ρ=1.0183
Packers
δ=1.27
Bears
-4

Comments:

  • Disagreements for Ravens @ Cowboys, Bills @ Broncos, Steelers @ Titans, and Packers @ Bears. SRS is feeling its oats this week.

  • The Jets are 0-3 on the west coast this year, including games at the 49ers and Raiders.

  • The Cardinals losses this year have either been by 8 points or less (Redskins, Panthers, Giants) or 21 points or more (Jets, Eagles, Vikings).