Tuesday, November 18, 2008

NFL Week 11 Power Rankings

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)Tennessee
Titans
10-01.5737
(LW × 0.998)
won by 10
at Jaguars
2 (↑1)New York
Giants
9-11.5231
(LW × 1.043)
won by 20
vs Ravens
3 (↓1)Baltimore
Ravens
6-41.4298
(LW × 0.969)
lost by 20
at Giants
4 (-)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
7-31.4031
(LW × 0.996)
won by 6
vs Vikings
5 (↑5)Green Bay
Packers
5-51.4022
(LW × 1.033)
won by 34
vs Bears
6 (↓1)Pittsburgh
Steelers
7-31.4004
(LW × 0.997)
won by 1
vs Chargers
7 (↓1)Philadelphia
Eagles
5-4-11.3623
(LW × 0.973)
tied
at Bengals
8 (↓1)Carolina
Panthers
8-21.3613
(LW × 0.973)
won by 9
vs Lions
9 (↓1)Indianapolis
Colts
6-41.3433
(LW × 0.982)
won by 6
vs Texans
10 (↑2)Arizona
Cardinals
7-31.3261
(LW × 0.998)
won by 6
at Seahawks
11 (↑2)New York
Jets
7-31.3242
(LW × 1.011)
won by 3
at Patriots
12 (↑2)Minnesota
Vikings
5-51.3172
(LW × 1.007)
lost by 6
at Buccaneers
13 (↑4)Dallas
Cowboys
6-41.3139
(LW × 1.027)
won by 4
at Redskins
14 (↓5)Atlanta
Falcons
6-41.3116
(LW × 0.963)
lost by 4
vs Broncos
15 (↓4)Chicago
Bears
5-51.2820
(LW × 0.957)
lost by 34
at Packers
16 (-)Miami
Dolphins
6-41.2814
(LW × 0.985)
won by 2
vs Raiders
17 (↑4)Cleveland
Browns
4-61.2757
(LW × 1.028)
won by 2
at Bills
18 (↓3)New England
Patriots
6-41.2749
(LW × 0.975)
lost by 3
vs Jets
19 (↓1)San Diego
Chargers
4-61.2745
(LW × 1.003)
lost by 1
at Steelers
20 (↓1)Jacksonville
Jaguars
4-61.2624
(LW × 1.002)
lost by 10
vs Titans
21 (↑2)New Orleans
Saints
5-51.2460
(LW × 1.029)
won by 10
at Chiefs
22 (↓2)Washington
Redskins
6-41.2431
(LW × 0.987)
lost by 4
vs Cowboys
23 (↑1)Denver
Broncos
6-41.2363
(LW × 1.045)
won by 4
at Falcons
24 (↑1)Houston
Texans
3-71.1879
(LW × 1.015)
lost by 6
at Colts
25 (↓3)Buffalo
Bills
5-51.1878
(LW × 0.977)
lost by 2
vs Browns
26 (-)Seattle
Seahawks
2-81.1459
(LW × 1.000)
lost by 6
vs Cardinals
27 (↑1)Cincinnati
Bengals
1-8-11.1395
(LW × 1.048)
tied
vs Eagles
28 (↑3)San Francisco
49ers
3-71.1143
(LW × 1.046)
won by 19
vs Rams
29 (↓2)Kansas City
Chiefs
1-91.1044
(LW × 0.974)
lost by 10
vs Saints
30 (↓1)Oakland
Raiders
2-81.0889
(LW × 1.011)
lost by 2
at Dolphins
31 (↓1)St. Louis
Rams
2-81.0396
(LW × 0.967)
lost by 19
at 49ers
32 (-)Detroit
Lions
0-101.0150
(LW × 1.017)
lost by 9
at Panthers

Comments:

  • The Giants get a big win over the Ravens, and finally get to the #2 spot. If you look at the power index values, it's the Titans, Giants, and everyone else.

  • The Packers are now ranked above all their remaining opponents. If APR is right, they should come close to a 6-0 finish, and a lot of momentum going into the playoffs.

  • What's going on with the Panthers? For the second week in a row, they squeaked out a win over a very weak opponent. They've got a very tough schedule left to play, with games against the Packers and Bucs. The Buccaneers' schedule looks easier; they could easily take the lead in the division by the end of the season.

  • The Eagles seem to have an uncanny ability to hit APR's sweet spot, in spite of an unremarkable record. Last year, they finished as the highest ranked team not in the playoffs. The way things are going, they could take that again.

  • The NFC North is the only division without a team with a winning record. Three divisions (AFC East, NFC East, and the NFC South) have all teams at or above 0.500.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Redskins (+13)
Washington is (2-3) in their last 5 games. ESPN, it's time to drop them out of your top 10.

Patriots (+8)
ESPN and APR both drop the Patriots 3 spots this week. Other than their week 2 victory over the Jets, the Patriots don't have much in the way of solid wins.

Broncos (+8)
The Broncos seem to be the anti-Eagles of the APR system: they never seem to rise very far, in spite of (for the most part) maintaining a winning record. They had an impressive road win against the Falcons, so maybe things have turned around for them.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Packers (-11)
Can a 5-5 team be #5 in the power rankings? They are 4-1 3-2 in their last 5, and haven't lost a game by more than 3 points since week 4. If they can solve their run defense issues, they should be able to keep a spot in the top 10 right through the playoffs.

Ravens (-10)
The Ravens fall quite a way on their loss to the Giants, but the #4 Buccaneers are so far back, it wasn't enough to cost them more than one spot.

Eagles (-10)
On the tie, APR only drops the Eagles by 1, while ESPN drops them 4.

Vikings (-9)
The Vikings are 3-2 in their last 5, including a critical divisional win over the Packers. They haven't lost by more than 7 since week 4.

Historically Bad Teams Watch

The Rams' 19-point loss now puts them at -17.30 net points per game for the season, which puts them at #4 since 1970. But with only 6 games left, their remaining losses would have to be by more than 25 points (on average) to overtake the '76 Buccaneers.

The Lions 9-point loss moves them further away from the brink to -13.50 (#24), and the Bengals' tie puts them at -11.10 (#43).

3 comments:

  1. Actually, the Packers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dave, very interesting as always.

    I find it fascinating that both your site and Football Outsiders are suffering what is known as the "Eagles Problem." The symptoms are that the team on the field is nowhere near as good as the team's scientific analysis!

    ReplyDelete