Monday, July 21, 2014

Pythagorean projection 2013->2014

Well, the Hall of Fame preseason game is now less than two weeks away, so I suppose it's time to get the new season going on fspi. Here we go!

As usual, this isn't a prediction of how many games teams are gonna win. It's more an indication of what they might be expected to do, and to create some commentary fodder for the teams that miss the mark.

TeamProjected WinsNote
Jaguars 3.1 New QB
Texans 4.2 New HC, QB
Redskins 4.8 New HC
Raiders 4.9 New QB
Buccaneers 5.3 New HC
Jets 5.4
Browns 5.5 New HC, QB
Giants 5.6
Falcons 5.9
Vikings 6.1 New HC, QB
Bills 6.7
Ravens 7.1
Bears 7.3
Dolphins 7.5 New OC
Titans 7.5 New HC
Rams 7.6 New DC
Packers 7.8
Cowboys 8.2
Steelers 8.2
Lions 8.5 New HC
Chargers 9.2
Eagles 9.4
Colts 9.4
Cardinals 9.5
Patriots 10.5
Saints 10.8
Chiefs 11.1
Bengals 11.1
49ers 11.5
Panthers 11.6
Broncos 11.7
Seahawks 12.8


  • If you've been following fspi for very long, you'll know it's been a while since the last time a defending Super Bowl champion won a playoff game the following year. The Seahawks seem like they could be in good shape to end that streak.

  • I kinda feel like the Panthers played a little over their heads in 2013, and maybe could be looking at a fall back this year. They'll certainly need more from their offense to be a threat in the playoffs.

  • I also wonder if the Chiefs can maintain their winning pace. They're not gonna be flying under anybody's radar this year, and as long as Peyton Manning stays healthy, they're gonna have a hard time winning their division.

  • The Cardinals are another team that could have trouble matching last season's success, especially without Daryl Washington. Carson Palmer needs to have a better season than he had last year.

  • The Lions have a new head coach, and the Vikings have a new head coach and quarterback. Unless the Bears can get a major turn around on their defense (and assuming Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy), it's tempting to pencil in the Packers as the NFC North champs for 2014.

  • Certainly, if Rodgers stays healthy, the Packers should easily surpass 7.8 wins.