Tuesday, November 3, 2009

NFL Week 8 Power Rankings

Updated: Scroll down for APR vs. ESPN

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For Week 7

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)New Orleans
Saints
7-07.3385
(LW × 1.151)
won by 8
vs Falcons
2 (-)Indianapolis
Colts
7-05.1705
(LW × 1.000)
won by 4
vs 49ers
3 (-)Denver
Broncos
6-14.9271
(LW × 0.973)
lost by 23
at Ravens
4 (↑2)New England
Patriots
5-24.7948
(LW × 1.276)
Bye
5 (↑2)Dallas
Cowboys
5-24.6755
(LW × 1.272)
won by 21
vs Seahawks
6 (↑14)Baltimore
Ravens
4-34.4893
(LW × 1.794)
won by 23
vs Broncos
7 (↑3)Houston
Texans
5-34.4001
(LW × 1.274)
won by 21
at Bills
8 (↓3)Atlanta
Falcons
4-34.2771
(LW × 1.130)
lost by 8
at Saints
9 (↑3)Minnesota
Vikings
7-14.2006
(LW × 1.313)
won by 12
at Packers
10 (↓2)Cincinnati
Bengals
5-24.1805
(LW × 1.138)
Bye
11 (↓7)Arizona
Cardinals
4-34.0727
(LW × 0.876)
lost by 13
vs Panthers
12 (↓1)Pittsburgh
Steelers
5-23.9322
(LW × 1.154)
Bye
13 (↓4)New York
Jets
4-43.8580
(LW × 1.094)
lost by 5
vs Dolphins
14 (-)Miami
Dolphins
3-43.6181
(LW × 1.227)
won by 5
at Jets
15 (↑8)Philadelphia
Eagles
5-23.4768
(LW × 1.794)
won by 23
vs Giants
16 (↑11)Carolina
Panthers
3-43.1599
(LW × 2.727)
won by 13
at Cardinals
17 (↓4)San Francisco
49ers
3-43.0663
(LW × 1.028)
lost by 4
at Colts
18 (↑1)San Diego
Chargers
4-32.9436
(LW × 1.164)
won by 8
vs Raiders
19 (↑3)Buffalo
Bills
3-52.8927
(LW × 1.250)
lost by 21
vs Texans
20 (↓2)Chicago
Bears
4-32.7689
(LW × 1.095)
won by 24
vs Browns
21 (↓4)Jacksonville
Jaguars
3-42.7594
(LW × 1.061)
lost by 17
at Titans
22 (↓7)Green Bay
Packers
4-32.6640
(LW × 0.940)
lost by 12
vs Vikings
23 (↓7)New York
Giants
5-32.6497
(LW × 1.004)
lost by 23
at Eagles
24 (↑2)Tennessee
Titans
1-62.4652
(LW × 1.782)
won by 17
vs Jaguars
25 (↓4)Seattle
Seahawks
2-52.2241
(LW × 0.957)
lost by 21
at Cowboys
26 (↓1)Oakland
Raiders
2-61.7024
(LW × 1.201)
lost by 8
at Chargers
27 (↓3)Cleveland
Browns
1-71.5912
(LW × 1.039)
lost by 24
at Bears
28 (↑1)Kansas City
Chiefs
1-61.3268
(LW × 1.275)
Bye
29 (↑1)St. Louis
Rams
1-71.2895
(LW × 1.270)
won by 7
at Lions
30 (↑1)Washington
Redskins
2-51.1930
(LW × 1.416)
Bye
31 (↓3)Detroit
Lions
1-61.1355
(LW × 0.989)
lost by 7
vs Rams
32 (-)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
0-71.0351
(LW × 1.402)
Bye

Comments

  • The Broncos lose by 23 points, but don't fall much because a) it's on the road, and b) every team they beat increased in power this week (with the Patriots and Cowboys up big).

  • Compare to the Giants, who actually increased (a very little bit) on their 23 point loss. But the benefit from increases by the Cowboys (and others) offsets the loss.

  • The behavior of this new margin function seems kind of weird. Are the Texans really a top-10 team? Hard to make the case that they're better than the Vikings, or Bengals, or Steelers.

  • With the Titans and Rams winning this week, the Buccaneers are the only 0-fer team left. The lowest ranked teams left on their schedule are the Panthers (#16), Packers (#22) and Seahawks (#25).

  • On the other side, the Saints and Colts are the only remaining undefeated teams. The Colts have one of the hardest remaining schedules, and the Saints one of the easiest. (More on this later in the week).

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Packers (+10)
The Packers are my team, and I wish I could agree with ESPN and rank them #12. But their wins have come against the Rams, Lions, and Browns, with their week 1 win against the Bears the closest they have to a quality win. Hopefully they'll do better against some teams a little softer than the Vikings, but until then, it's hard to rank them much higher than the #22 that APR gives them.

Giants (+8)
The Giants manage to look worse and worse every week. ESPN doesn't have the Giants in their top 10 anymore, but now APR has them in the bottom 10. And with the Chargers, Falcons, Broncos, and Cowboys coming up, the Giants season could be over already.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Texans (-7)
After a tough start, the Texans have racked up a solid string of wins, and are now at 5-3. They've also got a real shot at their first-ever winning season. I'm not sure that's worth a top-10 ranking, though.

Panthers (-7)
One of the oddities of the new margin system is that one good win can really move a team up a long ways, as evidenced by the Panthers' 11-spot jump this week. If they can sustain that same level in the running game they showed against the Cardinals, it'll be worth it.