Wednesday, November 11, 2009

NFL Week 10 Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com.

Picks for week 10.

GameAPRSRSLine
New Orleans Saints @
St. Louis Rams
Saints
ρ=5.5937
Saints
δ=38.29
Saints
-14
Detroit Lions @
Minnesota Vikings
Vikings
ρ=3.5096
Vikings
δ=18.66
Vikings
-16½
Denver Broncos @
Washington Redskins
Broncos
ρ=3.4228
Broncos
δ=16.38
Broncos
-4
Baltimore Ravens @
Cleveland Browns
Ravens
ρ=2.3677
Ravens
δ=21.99
Ravens
-11
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @
Miami Dolphins
Dolphins
ρ=2.1582
Dolphins
δ=17.51
Dolphins
-10
Dallas Cowboys @
Green Bay Packers
Cowboys
ρ=2.1481
Cowboys
δ=7.39
Cowboys
-3
Seattle Seahawks @
Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=1.9792
Cardinals
δ=6.93
Cardinals
-8½
Jacksonville Jaguars @
New York Jets
Jets
ρ=1.4287
Jets
δ=17.94
Jets
-6½
Kansas City Chiefs @
Oakland Raiders
Raiders
ρ=1.2147
Chiefs
δ=2.35
Raiders
-2
Philadelphia Eagles @
San Diego Chargers
Eagles
ρ=1.1696
Eagles
δ=3.18
Chargers
-2½
Cincinnati Bengals @
Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.1493
Bengals
δ=2.78
Steelers
-7
Atlanta Falcons @
Carolina Panthers
Falcons
ρ=1.1401
Falcons
δ=12.03
Falcons
-1½
Chicago Bears @
San Francisco 49ers
49ers
ρ=1.0604
49ers
δ=1.72
49ers
-3
New England Patriots @
Indianapolis Colts
Colts
ρ=1.0488
Patriots
δ=5.75
Colts
-3
Buffalo Bills @
Tennessee Titans
Bills
ρ=1.0238
Bills
δ=5.68
Titans
-6½
Bye: Houston Texans, New York Giants

Comments:

  • Thursday night games begin this week with Bears @ 49ers. Be sure to get your picks in!

  • If the Falcons beat the Panthers this week, it will be just the second road win for them this season.

  • I wish I had grounds to argue picking against the Packers. But the only surprise is that the Cowboys are just a 3-point favorite.

  • I think the line is giving the Chargers too much credit for their last-second win over the fading Giants. Unless the Eagles' offense goes back into hibernation, they should win easily.

  • The Titans' power index has more than doubled in the last two weeks. If they really have turned things around, they should have a real chance to beat the Bills.