Tuesday, November 17, 2009

NFL Week 11 Picks

Update: just noticed I didn't have a line for Falcons @ Giants. Added from yahoo.com

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com, except for Chargers @ Broncos, which is taken from footballlocks.com.

Picks for week 11.

GameAPRSRSLine
New Orleans Saints @
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Saints
ρ=3.1916
Saints
δ=22.29
Saints
-11
Cincinnati Bengals @
Oakland Raiders
Bengals
ρ=3.1420
Bengals
δ=22.12
Bengals
-9½
Arizona Cardinals @
St. Louis Rams
Cardinals
ρ=2.7235
Cardinals
δ=21.26
Cardinals
-9
Pittsburgh Steelers @
Kansas City Chiefs
Steelers
ρ=2.3672
Steelers
δ=15.29
Steelers
-10
Washington Redskins @
Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.9354
Cowboys
δ=12.83
Cowboys
-11
Seattle Seahawks @
Minnesota Vikings
Vikings
ρ=1.7295
Vikings
δ=7.80
Vikings
-11
Indianapolis Colts @
Baltimore Ravens
Colts
ρ=1.5454
Colts
δ=3.97
Colts
-1
Philadelphia Eagles @
Chicago Bears
Eagles
ρ=1.4851
Eagles
δ=5.66
Eagles
-3
New York Jets @
New England Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.3763
Patriots
δ=8.76
Patriots
-10½
Miami Dolphins @
Carolina Panthers
Panthers
ρ=1.3428
Dolphins
δ=6.16
Panthers
-3
Atlanta Falcons @
New York Giants
Falcons
ρ=1.3307
Falcons
δ=3.60
Giants
-6½
Cleveland Browns @
Detroit Lions
Browns
ρ=1.2130
Browns
δ=0.03
Lions
-4
Buffalo Bills @
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars
ρ=1.2053
Jaguars
δ=1.15
Jaguars
-8½
Tennessee Titans @
Houston Texans
Texans
ρ=1.1848
Texans
δ=7.93
Texans
-4½
San Francisco 49ers @
Green Bay Packers
Packers
ρ=1.0801
Packers
δ=1.57
Packers
-6½
San Diego Chargers @
Denver Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.0793
Broncos
δ=0.27
Chargers
-3

Comments:

  • Dolphins @ Panthers is the Thursday night game.

  • The Yahoo line listing presents lines from several different booking services. Normally, they agree on what team is favored, though not always by the precise value. This week, there are 3 lines with Colts - 1, and one with Ravens - 1. In this case, majority rules, so Colts - 1 is listed above.

  • The Packers have beat the 49ers 12 times in a row in the regular season, dating back to 1995. They're probably going to need a better game from Aaron Rodgers and the offense to keep that streak alive. Of course, the 49ers are probably going to need to score more than 10 points to end that streak.

  • The Falcons are still looking for their second road win, and the Giants are looking to end their 4-game losing streak.

  • The Browns will have a lot tougher time with the Lions if Josh Cribbs can't play.