Tuesday, November 17, 2009

NFL Week 10 Power Rankings

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Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For Week 10

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)New Orleans
Saints
9-06.0620
(LW × 0.871)
won by 5
at Rams
2 (-)Indianapolis
Colts
9-05.8842
(LW × 1.087)
won by 1
vs Patriots
3 (↑4)Cincinnati
Bengals
7-25.1214
(LW × 1.146)
won by 6
at Steelers
4 (↓1)New England
Patriots
6-34.8934
(LW × 0.948)
lost by 1
at Colts
5 (↑1)Arizona
Cardinals
6-34.6892
(LW × 1.037)
won by 11
vs Seahawks
6 (↓2)Pittsburgh
Steelers
6-34.6152
(LW × 0.899)
lost by 6
vs Bengals
7 (↑2)Houston
Texans
5-44.5222
(LW × 1.037)
Bye
8 (↓3)Dallas
Cowboys
6-34.4243
(LW × 0.923)
lost by 10
at Packers
9 (↑4)Minnesota
Vikings
8-14.2247
(LW × 1.116)
won by 17
vs Lions
10 (↑5)Carolina
Panthers
4-54.0559
(LW × 1.176)
won by 9
vs Falcons
11 (↓3)Denver
Broncos
6-33.8809
(LW × 0.875)
lost by 10
at Redskins
12 (↑6)Tennessee
Titans
3-63.8167
(LW × 1.253)
won by 24
vs Bills
13 (↓2)Atlanta
Falcons
5-43.8133
(LW × 0.970)
lost by 9
at Panthers
14 (↓2)Baltimore
Ravens
5-43.8076
(LW × 0.995)
won by 16
at Browns
15 (↓1)Philadelphia
Eagles
5-43.6538
(LW × 1.033)
lost by 8
at Chargers
16 (↑3)San Diego
Chargers
6-33.5957
(LW × 1.189)
won by 8
vs Eagles
17 (↓7)New York
Jets
4-53.5554
(LW × 0.892)
lost by 2
vs Jaguars
18 (↑2)Jacksonville
Jaguars
5-43.4562
(LW × 1.239)
won by 2
at Jets
19 (↑6)Green Bay
Packers
5-43.2391
(LW × 1.452)
won by 10
vs Cowboys
20 (↓4)Miami
Dolphins
4-53.0205
(LW × 0.884)
won by 2
vs Buccaneers
21 (-)San Francisco
49ers
4-52.9988
(LW × 1.085)
won by 4
vs Bears
22 (↓5)Buffalo
Bills
3-62.8675
(LW × 0.920)
lost by 24
at Titans
23 (↓1)New York
Giants
5-42.8657
(LW × 1.080)
Bye
24 (↓1)Chicago
Bears
4-52.4603
(LW × 0.944)
lost by 4
at 49ers
25 (↓1)Seattle
Seahawks
3-62.4427
(LW × 1.069)
lost by 11
at Cardinals
26 (↑4)Washington
Redskins
3-62.2860
(LW × 1.765)
won by 10
vs Broncos
27 (↑2)Kansas City
Chiefs
2-71.9497
(LW × 1.387)
won by 6
at Raiders
28 (-)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
1-81.8994
(LW × 1.199)
lost by 2
at Dolphins
29 (↑2)St. Louis
Rams
1-81.7218
(LW × 1.385)
lost by 5
vs Saints
30 (↓4)Oakland
Raiders
2-71.6300
(LW × 0.954)
lost by 6
vs Chiefs
31 (↓4)Cleveland
Browns
1-81.4985
(LW × 0.927)
lost by 16
vs Ravens
32 (-)Detroit
Lions
1-81.2354
(LW × 1.145)
lost by 17
at Vikings

Comments

  • The Saints only beat the lowley Rams by 5, and lose a big chunk of their power index as a result. Because they play another weak team (Tampa Bay) next week, the Colts could very easily take over the #1 spot with a win over the Ravens.

  • The Panthers and Titans are enjoying high rankings in spite of their losing records in part because APR gives less weight to older games.

  • The same process gives more weight to the Giants' 0-4 run, making them the lowest ranked team with a winning record. The good news for the Giants is they have the Falcons at home followed by the reeling Broncos.

  • Somehow the Jaguars have clawed their way to a winning record! They could even make it to 8 or 9 wins this season—they are presently ranked above 4 of their remaining opponents (Dolphins, 49ers, Bills, and Browns).

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Chargers (+8)
The Chargers' biggest problem (for APR ranking, anyway) is that they play in the same division as the Chiefs and Raiders. They managed to sweep the Raiders, but only by a combined margin of 12 points. And I'm not sure how much credit they deserve for beating the fading Giants and incosistent Eagles.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Panthers (-10)
The Panthers are looking a lot better lately, with their 13-point win over the Cardinals as centerpiece. They could actually climb to 7-5 before reaching a brutal 4-game stretch to end the season.

Titans (-10)
It's hard to know what to make of the Titans—they certainly struggled mightily in their first 6 games, capped by a 0-59 disaster at the hands of the Patriots. If they can beat the Texans next week, it will be harder to dismiss their winning streak as a fluke.