Wednesday, October 1, 2014

NFL Week 5 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Jets @
Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.6116
Chargers
δ=20.3
Chargers
-6
Bengals @
Patriots
Bengals
ρ=1.5358
Bengals*
δ=29.1
Bengals
-1½
Seahawks @
Washington
Seahawks
ρ=1.3897
Seahawks*
δ=20.5
Seahawks
-7½
Rams @
Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.3251
Eagles
δ=15.8
Eagles
-7
Steelers @
Jaguars
Steelers
ρ=1.2399
Steelers*
δ=18.9
Steelers
-7
Vikings @
Packers
Packers*
ρ=1.1527
Packers
δ=4.1
Packers
-9
Buccaneers @
Saints
Saints
ρ=1.1343
Saints
δ=13.9
Saints
-10
Cardinals @
Broncos
Cardinals
ρ=1.1165
Cardinals*
δ=3.6
Broncos
-7
Falcons @
Giants
Giants
ρ=1.1158
Giants
δ=1.9
Giants
-4
Chiefs @
49ers
49ers*
ρ=1.0876
Chiefs
δ=1.1
49ers
-6½
Ravens @
Colts
Ravens
ρ=1.0783
Ravens*
δ=7.7
Colts
-3½
Bears @
Panthers
Bears
ρ=1.0570
Bears*
δ=3.2
Panthers
-2½
Texans @
Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.0503
Cowboys
δ=2.1
Cowboys
-4
Browns @
Titans
Browns
ρ=1.0323
Browns*
δ=6.8
Titans
-1½
Bills @
Lions
Lions
ρ=1.0026
Lions
δ=1.7
Lions
-7

Bye: Dolphins, Raiders

Comments:

  • 9 points seems like a lot for the Packers to cover, especially after their defense failed to force a single punt last Sunday, and the Vikings scored 41 points on the Falcons. Teddy Bridgewater and rookie RB Jerick McKinnon (135 yards last Sunday) are both questionable at this writing, so it could depend on how healthy the Vikings are at gametime.

  • The Patriots haven't been home underdogs very many times in the Tom Brady era. (But they haven't lost by 27 points many times either.) If the Pats lose this game... well, it's still early, and I don't want to underestimate Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but it sure won't be a good sign of happy times next January.

  • Cardinals @ Broncos is maybe the most interesting game this week. It's a chance for one of the best defenses to go up against one of the best offenses. The winner will have a legitimate spot at the top of the power rankings, and the loser (especially if it's the Broncos) will have some questions that need to be answered.

  • Everybody likes the Cowboys this week, but I feel like Tony Romo is a good pass rush away from another disastrous game. If JJ Watt and the Texans' defense can bring the heat, this is a very winnable game for them.

  • The 49ers sure didn't look good Sunday, and almost certainly would've lost if the Eagles had more than one sustained drive, or been able to punch it in when they had first and goal at the 6.

    If the Chiefs defense can have another game like they did Monday night, they could easily give the 49ers their third loss of the season.

  • Since their week 1 win over the Chiefs the Titans have looked horrible, turning over the ball on offense, and unable to buy a stop on defense. Meanwhile, the Browns have looked like they are at least better than last year, with all three of their games so far coming right down to the end. Whether the Titans field an injured Jake Locker or an ineffective Charlie Whitehurst, this is a game the Browns can win, and should if they really have improved over last year.