Tuesday, September 23, 2014

NFL Week 3 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-5)


Cowboys @ Rams
Ravens @ Browns
Colts @ Jaguars
Buccaneers @ Falcons
Titans @ Bengals
Raiders @ Patriots
Broncos @ Seahawks
Packers @ Lions


Chiefs @ Dolphins
As I expected, the Chiefs are not as bad as their (formerly) 0-2 record indicated, and Ryan Tannehill just isn't enough of a passing threat to drive the Dolphins' offense by himself. Oddly, Lamar Miller (the Dolphins' RB) rushed for 108 yards on 15 carries. Since the game was close going into the 4th quarter, I really have to wonder why the Dolphins didn't call more running plays, giving they were averaging 7 yards a carry.
Chargers @ Bills
Could the Chargers actually be good? I kind of dismissed their win over the Seahawks last week as a fluke (in spite of the fact that they really played well on both sides of the ball). And in this game, the Chargers' defense really ruled the day, forcing 5 punts, two turnovers on downs, and a safety. Holding Buffalo to just 10 points made it easy for their offense to score enough points to carry the day.
Steelers @ Panthers
Last year I wondered if the Panthers were ready to play in a high pressure, high attention environment. The answer in the playoffs was "no", and the answer Sunday night seemed to be "still no". After their opening drive, their offense didn't do anything with Cam Newton, and somehow Derek Anderson actually looked like the better quarterback in this game.
Texans @ Giants
Well, it turns out the Giants can still be a dangerous team. Eli Manning threw for 234 yards and a couple touchdowns, while Rashad Jennings rushed for 176 yards and a TD. Meanwhile, Ryan Fitzpatrick threw 3 interceptions, and the Texans are beginning to understand why he's not the starter for the Bengals, Bills, or Titans.
49ers @ Cardinals
The Cardinals' defense did a good job holding the 49ers to just 14 points. But a big part of this actually has to go to the Cardinals' kicking and punting units. The 49ers only started one drive beyond their own 20 yard line (and punting on that one drive) Which meant that they mostly had at least 80 yards to go to the goal line. And when they did get into field goal range late, the attempt was blocked (again, credit special teams).
The Cardinals had three drives on relatively short fields, and converted them into 10 points, which was the difference in the game.

Split Picks: (APR 2-1, SRS 1-2, Line 2-1)

Bears (APR, SRS) @ Jets (Line)
The Jets really had a chance to win this game. But a critical pick 6 early, and a 1 for 6 conversion rate in the end zone doomed the Jets' hopes for victory.
Vikings (SRS) @ Saints (APR, Line)
No prizes for picking the Saints to beat the Adrian Peterson-less Vikings in their home stadium. It was surprising that this was a one score game until the 4th quarter. Maybe the Saints were just playing down to their competition, but this might be a bad sign for a team that has traditionally dominated in their home stadium.
Washington (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)
I'm not sure what to say about a game that featured a total of 71 points scored, and was decided by a margin of 3 points. Except perhaps that if Washington's defense had been even a little better, they could've won this game.
It's also worth noting the Eagles have given up more points than all but 4 other teams in the league (Jaguars, Bucaneers, Dolphins, and Packers). Relying on a high scoring offense to carry you may work okay in the regular season, but you've really got to be able to play defense when it comes playoff time.


Not the most amazing week ever, but solidly better than last week, anyway.

APR 10- 6 18-1456.3%
SRS 9- 7 16-1650.0%
Line 10-6 19-1359.4%