| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts @ Patriots | Patriots ρ=1.0827 | Patriots δ=1.3 | Patriots -7½ |
| Saints @ Seahawks | Seahawks ρ=1.0788 | Seahawks δ=4.6 | Seahawks -7½ |
| 49ers @ Panthers | 49ers ρ=1.0360 | 49ers* δ=0.6 | 49ers -1 |
| Chargers @ Broncos | Broncos* ρ=1.0333 | Broncos δ=7.8 | Broncos -10 |
Comments:
I haven't been real impressed with the Patriots this season, but I don't think the Colts are gonna be the ones to knock them out of the playoffs. When the Patriots have lost this season, it's mostly been because their offense has struggled with their opponents' defense.
The Colts (as evidenced last Saturday) have an unremarkable defense at best, and I don't think they have enough to slow down the Patriots. And unlike the Chiefs, Bill Belechick and Tom Brady know how to hang on to a 4 touchdown lead.
The Saints played the Seahawks in Seattle week 13, and got clobbered. Since then, the Seahawks have lost twice, including once to the Cardinals in Seattle, so the Saints have at least some idea of what it takes to win. But I just don't feel like the Saints' defense is as good as the Cardinals or 49ers, so unless the Seahawks just come out really flat, this game should go the Seahawks way again.
I think on paper, the Panthers are a better team than the 49ers. Especially playing at home, this is a game the Panthers should win. That said, I think there's a couple factors working in the 49ers favor.
First of all, this is another case of a quarterback and head coach (Kaepernick and Harbaugh) with playoff experience versus a pair (Newton and Rivera) with none. I think this is a less extreme case than the Saints-Eagles matchup last week, but it is there.
Second, and probably more important, I wonder how ready the Panthers are to play in the high-pressure, high attention environment of the playoffs. The Panthers' last loss came week 14 in a Sunday night prime time matchup at the Saints. If they come out as flat as they were in that game, the 49ers will clobber them.
Of course, the Chargers got a big-time upset over the Broncos in Denver week 15. And Peyton Manning is notorious for one-and-done playoff appearances. That said, unless the Broncos turn the ball over like the Bengals did, I think this is where the clock chime midnight on the Chargers Cinderella season.
