Monday, January 6, 2014

NFL Wildcard Round Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Chiefs (SRS) @ Colts (APR, Line)
This was a pretty ugly game for both teams. But especially so for the Chiefs, who got to 11 wins and a playoff berth largely on the strength of their defense. They had a 28 point lead early in the 3rd quarter, and then... just fell apart. Their offense mostly didn't sustain drives, their defense couldn't get off the field, and the Colts managed to chip away at that lead until it was gone.
Saints (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)
The Eagles were 1-3 in the regular season when they allowed 26 or more points, so a lot of this has to go on their defense. But their (sometimes, anyway) high-powered offense never got going, either. Nick Foles only passed for 195 yards, and LeSean McCoy was held to just 77 yards rushing.
There were coaching issues, too. When the Saints got down inside the 20 with less than 2 minutes left, the Eagles really should have let the Saints score. Yeah, they would have been down 5 or 7 (depending on whether the Saints made the 2 point conversion), but at least they would've had a chance to respond. Instead, the Saints got another first down, drained away the rest of the clock, and kicked the winning field goal as time expired.
Chargers @ Bengals (APR, SRS, Line)
I mentioned in the game picks that the Chargers would need 4 turnovers to have a chance (and then dismissed it, since the Chargers hardly ever got turnovers in the regular season). But the Bengals were more obliging, giving up a couple fumbles, and Dalton throwing a couple interceptions. Mix in an offense that couldn't much maintain drives even when they didn't end in turnovers, and the Bengals' playoff victory drought will continue for another year.
49ers (APR, SRS, Line) @ Packers
Well, the Packers didn't need to score 40 to win this, but they did need more than 20. There's some blame that can be placed on the defense, especially on that last drive, but honestly, holding the 49ers to 23 points is pretty good work for that bunch.
The real probelm for me was the offense, which punted 5 times, and settled for a game tying field goal after having goal to goal on their last drive. This is a team that scored 28 or more points 8 times in the regular season, including the season opener against these same 49ers. The Packers just need more from their offense to win this game.


APR 3-1 3-175%
SRS 2-2 2-250%
Line 2-2 2-250%