Tuesday, October 7, 2014

NFL Week 5 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-2)


Steelers @ Jaguars
Seahawks @ Washington
Vikings @ Packers
Rams @ Eagles
Buccaneers @ Saints
Jets @ Chargers
Falcons @ Giants
Texans @ Cowboys


Bills @ Lions
The Lions' (now ex-) field goal kicker missed three long field goals in this game, which does not make you popular in a game lost by 3 points. But the Lions' offense has to bear some blame too. They only had three drives longer than 31 yards, and never went for it on 4th down, in spite of knowing their kicker is struggling.
Bengals @ Patriots
What struck me in watching this game is how bad the Bengals' defense was. They rarely got any pressure on Brady, they missed tackles, they were out of position. They made it look very easy for the Patriots to drive for scores, which they did repeatedly.
I mentioned in the game picks it's not a good idea to underestimate Belichick and Brady, and this is why. Even now, they are capable of rising up and obliterating their opponent.

Split Picks: (APR 2-3, SRS 1-4, Line 4-1)

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Broncos (Line)
The Cardinals didn't look ready for this game on either side of the ball. The offense punted an astonishing 11 times, and the defense gave up big play after big play. Maybe the most surprising thing about this game is that it was close through three quarters.
Chiefs (SRS) @ 49ers (APR, Line)
On the one hand, the Chiefs' defense didn't have a great day, allowing the 49ers 6 drives of 43 yards or longer, all ending with a score. On the other hand, only one of those was a touchdown, so the Chiefs didn't need an offensive explosion to win the game. But they only managed 3 scoring drives, and their final three drives were all 19 yards or shorter.
Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Colts (Line)
Looking at the boxscore for this game, it was an ugly one for both teams. The Ravens had 3 turnovers, the Colts had 4. Both quarterbacks averaged under 7 yards a pass attempt. The Ravens gave up 4 sacks, the Colts gave up 83 penalty yards. Both teams had a long drive end without a score. In the end, the Colts were able to do a little more with their opportunities than the Ravens did with theirs.
Bears (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)
Browns (APR, SRS) @ Titans (Line)
This is why you don't take your foot off the gas, even when you're up 28-3 over the Browns in your own stadium. The Browns just kept chipping away at that lead, and the Titans just kept not extending it. Part of this was the Titans having to play Charlie Whitehurst, who just wasn't able to respond once the game started to get close again, and part was the fact that the Titans didn't go to a run-heavy offense when they had a chance to run out the clock.


Best week so far, thanks to a solid round of unanimous picks.

APR 10- 4 35-2360.3%
SRS 9- 5 32-2655.2%
Line 11- 3 37-2163.8%