Wednesday, October 8, 2014

NFL Week 6 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Chargers @
Raiders
Chargers
ρ=1.6551
Chargers*
δ=29.6
Chargers
-7
Broncos @
Jets
Broncos
ρ=1.6176
Broncos*
δ=26.1
Broncos
-9
Washington @
Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=1.3628
Cardinals
δ=14.2
Cardinals
-3½
Ravens @
Buccaneers
Ravens
ρ=1.2974
Ravens*
δ=25.2
Ravens
-3
49ers @
Rams
49ers
ρ=1.2412
49ers*
δ=19.2
49ers
-3
Jaguars @
Titans
Titans*
ρ=1.1881
Titans
δ=10.9
Titans
-6
Lions @
Vikings
Lions
ρ=1.1801
Lions*
δ=13.5
Lions
-2½
Cowboys @
Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.1609
Seahawks
δ=13.7
Seahawks
-8½
Panthers @
Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.1595
Bengals
δ=11.4
Bengals
-7
Packers @
Dolphins
Packers
ρ=1.1447
Packers*
δ=6.4
Packers
-3
Patriots @
Bills
Bills
ρ=1.0917
Bills
δ=4.4
Patriots
-3
Colts @
Texans
Colts
ρ=1.0700
Colts*
δ=7.4
Colts
-2½
Bears @
Falcons
Bears
ρ=1.0539
Bears*
δ=0.2
Falcons
-3
Giants @
Eagles
Giants
ρ=1.0205
Giants*
δ=6.2
Eagles
-2½
Steelers @
Browns
Browns*
ρ=1.0131
Browns
δ=2.6
Browns
-1

Bye: Chiefs, Saints

Comments:

  • Remember when the Cardinals had a decent starting quarterback and a solid backup? Yeah, good times. Now Carson Palmer is dealing with nerve issues in his arm, and Drew Stanton is recovering from a concussion. Which means the Cards might be starting 4th round rookie Logan Thomas, with some guy off the street (Dennis Dixon, maybe) backing him up.

  • Patriots @ Bills is a rare case of APR and SRS taking the home time and the Line taking the road team. I don't buy that one dominating win means it's gonna be all rainbows and unicorns for the Pats now, but the Bills (now featuring Kyle Orton) have been so bad for so long, I'm not sure they're the ones to give the Pats their third loss.

  • I might start to think Tony Romo has solved his interception throwing problems if he can get past the Seahawks defense without getting picked on some ill-adviced pass. But right now my gut tells me the Cowboys aren't as good as their 4-1 record, and they're gonna get clobbered Sunday.

  • The Browns are unanimously picked to beat the Steelers! A sign of the fact that the Browns do look better than they have in a long time, but also a sign that the Steelers look perhaps even worse than last season's 8-8 squad.

  • After a bumbling 0-2 start, the Giants have rattled off a trio of convincing wins (albeit against some lesser opponents). This week starts a very tough stretch for the Giants, where they'll face the Eagles, Cowboys, Colts, Seahawks, and 49ers. The Giants are going to have to play some solid football for this not to derail their playoff chances.

  • Bears @ Falcons is an interesting matchup. Both have been foundering, both have at least the potential to do better. The winner will be at 3-3 and have a chance to climb back into the playoff race, while the loser will be at 2-4, and already at the brink of elimination.