| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals @ Raiders | Cardinals ρ=1.4615 | Cardinals* δ=15.7 | Cardinals -3½ |
| Seahawks @ Rams | Seahawks ρ=1.3561 | Seahawks* δ=22.2 | Seahawks -6½ |
| Falcons @ Ravens | Ravens ρ=1.3243 | Ravens δ=14.5 | Ravens -7 |
| Browns @ Jaguars | Browns ρ=1.3114 | Browns* δ=15.5 | Browns -5½ |
| Jets @ Patriots | Patriots ρ=1.2892 | Patriots δ=11.1 | Patriots -10 |
| Vikings @ Bills | Bills ρ=1.1993 | Bills δ=10.9 | Bills -4 |
| Saints @ Lions | Lions ρ=1.1728 | Lions δ=11.3 | Lions -2½ |
| 49ers @ Broncos | Broncos ρ=1.1619 | Broncos δ=9.2 | Broncos -6½ |
| Giants @ Cowboys | Cowboys ρ=1.1497 | Cowboys δ=4.4 | Cowboys -5½ |
| Texans @ Steelers | Texans ρ=1.0960 | Texans* δ=10.9 | Steelers -3½ |
| Panthers @ Packers | Packers ρ=1.0767 | Packers δ=9.8 | Packers -7 |
| Dolphins @ Bears | Bears* ρ=1.0629 | Dolphins* δ=2.4 | Bears -3½ |
| Chiefs @ Chargers | Chargers* ρ=1.0608 | Chargers δ=3.0 | Chargers -4 |
| Bengals @ Colts | Colts ρ=1.0525 | Colts δ=7.0 | Colts -3 |
| Titans @ Washington | Titans ρ=1.0154 | Washington δ=2.7 | Washington -4½ |
Bye: Buccaneers, Eagles
Comments:
Peyton Manning is only 2 touchdowns away from tying Brett Favre's carrer total (and league record) of 508. Manning has passed for at least 2 touchdowns every game this year, including against the Seahawks.
The 49ers haven't been giving up many passing touchdowns, but they really haven't faced a lot of big passing threats either. It seems like a lock Manning will at least tie the record Sunday night
I feel like the Steelers are a bad pick for the Line this week. The Steelers have been deeply unimpressive so far this season, giving the Buccaneers their first (and so far only) win of the season, and struggling to beat the now 0-6 Jaguars.
The Texans haven't looked like world-beaters either, but at least they've been competitive against some tougher teams. I think APR and SRS are right here.
Everybody likes the Colts to win at home this week. But their offense has one of the highest turnover totals in the league so far this season. If the Bengals can get some turnovers, they'll have a chance to jump start their season with an upset win this week.
The Lions' defense has looked a lot better this season than it has in a long time. But with Drew Brees and the Saints coming to town, they'll be facing one of their toughest tests of the season, especially if Calvin Johnson has to sit out again.
The Packers are favored to win again against what feels like an under-rated opponent. Cam Newton had a field day running against the Bengals last week, and he might have another one against the Packers.
