Tuesday, January 21, 2014

NFL Championship Week Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Patriots @ Broncos (APR, SRS, Line)
The Patriots seemed to have a lot of plays available to them on offense (that overthrown pass to Edelman being the best example), but they couldn't take advantage, at least not as much as they needed to. I wonder how much that's Brady not being on the same page with his receivers, and how much it's Brady getting old.
The Broncos defense seemed like they gave up a lot of plays, but with the way their offense was scoring points (they scored every time they had the ball, except for their first and last drives), the Broncos' defense really didn't need to get a lot of stops, and they got as many as they needed.
49ers @ Seahawks (APR, SRS, Line)
The good news for the 49ers is, they played their best game in Seattle of the Wilson/Kaepernick era, including establishing an early 10 point lead. But they were only able to add one more touchdown to that total, and meanwhile the Seahawks kept chipping away at their lead, and finally managed to pull ahead in the 4th quarter.
I wonder how much of this is Colin Kaepernick having trouble playing in high pressure situations. After their final touchdown, the 49ers offense produced a punt, a lost fumble, and two interceptions. That last interception seemed to me to be particularly bad. If Kaepernick had just thrown the ball away, the 49ers still would've had 2nd and 10 at the 18, with 0:22 left, and probably 3 more chances at a go ahead touchdown. Instead, he threw at probably the Seahawks' best DB, with disastrous results, and the game was over.


APR 2-0 9-190%
SRS 2-0 8-280%
Line 2-0 8-280%