Wednesday, December 8, 2010

NFL: Week 14 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Falcons @
Panthers
Falcons
ρ=1.4266
Falcons*
δ=19.5
Falcons
-7½
Bengals @
Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.2858
Steelers
δ=12.1
Steelers
-10
Packers @
Lions
Packers
ρ=1.2300
Packers*
δ=10.4
Packers
-7
Ravens @
Texans
Ravens
ρ=1.1709
Ravens*
δ=6.7
Ravens
-3
Eagles @
Cowboys
Eagles
ρ=1.1309
Eagles*
δ=8.0
Eagles
-3½
Rams @
Saints
Saints
ρ=1.1164
Saints
δ=7.1
Saints
-9½
Broncos @
Cardinals
Broncos
ρ=1.1123
Broncos*
δ=7.1
Broncos
-3
Patriots @
Bears
Patriots
ρ=1.1085
Patriots*
δ=7.5
Patriots
-3
Browns @
Bills
Browns
ρ=1.1076
Browns*
δ=4.7
Bills
-1
Giants @
Vikings
Giants
ρ=1.0953
Giants*
δ=4.1
Giants
-1½
Dolphins @
Jets
Jets*
ρ=1.0786
Jets
δ=3.6
Jets
-5½
Buccaneers @
Redskins
Buccaneers
ρ=1.0609
Buccaneers*
δ=0.6
Buccaneers
-2
Seahawks @
49ers
49ers
ρ=1.0572
49ers
δ=1.1
49ers
-4½
Raiders @
Jaguars
Jaguars*
ρ=1.0403
Raiders*
δ=2.3
Jaguars
-5
Colts @
Titans
Colts
ρ=1.0297
Titans
δ=0.1
Colts
-3
Chiefs @
Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.0144
Chargers
δ=2.8
Chargers
-7

Comments:

  • More agreement this week, only 3 split picks.

  • Looks like 6th-round rookie John Skelton will be starting for the Cardinals this week (backed up by FA acquisition and erstwhile UFL backup Richard Bartel). So it looks like Eric Studesville will have an excellent chance to continue this season's trend of interim coaches winning out of the gate.

  • Packers -7 seems like a lot of points to cover. Yeah, the Lions are 2-10, but they've only lost by more than 4 at home once this year. (The Packers have won by at least 7 points in their last 4 visits to Detroit, though...)

  • Can the Dolphins extend their road record to 6-1? On the one hand, they won't have WR Brian Hartline (out with finger surgery). On the other hand, when the Dolphins have won, it's been mostly running the ball anyway.

  • Browns @ Bills matches up two teams that have lost a lot of close games. Last year, Derek Anderson and the Browns managed to win this matchup in spite of only completing 2 passes for 17 yards. It probably won't be that awful this year. (Why the Cardinals thought Anderson was a worthwhile FA aquisition is far beyond my capacity.)