All line values are from yahoo.com, except Chiefs @ Rams, Packers @ Patriots, and Bears @ Vikings, which are from footballlocks.com.
| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons @ Seahawks | Falcons ρ=1.3431 | Falcons* δ=15.0 | Falcons -7 |
| Broncos @ Raiders | Raiders ρ=1.1765 | Raiders δ=8.4 | Raiders -6½ |
| Browns @ Bengals | Browns ρ=1.1738 | Browns* δ=3.7 | Bengals -1½ |
| Bears @ Vikings | Bears ρ=1.1105 | Bears* δ=3.4 | Bears -2½ |
| 49ers @ Chargers | Chargers ρ=1.1067 | Chargers δ=11.8 | Chargers -9 |
| Packers @ Patriots | Patriots ρ=1.0969 | Patriots δ=3.5 | Patriots -11 |
| Jets @ Steelers | Steelers ρ=1.0862 | Steelers δ=4.4 | Steelers -6½ |
| Redskins @ Cowboys | Cowboys* ρ=1.0783 | Cowboys δ=2.4 | Cowboys -6 |
| Lions @ Buccaneers | Buccaneers ρ=1.0745 | Lions* δ=3.6 | Buccaneers -6 |
| Bills @ Dolphins | Dolphins* ρ=1.0620 | Dolphins δ=5.2 | Dolphins -5½ |
| Saints @ Ravens | Ravens ρ=1.0518 | Ravens δ=2.8 | Ravens -1½ |
| Jaguars @ Colts | Jaguars ρ=1.0348 | Colts δ=5.1 | Colts -5 |
| Chiefs @ Rams | Chiefs* ρ=1.0346 | Chiefs* δ=5.0 | Rams -1½ |
| Eagles @ Giants | Eagles ρ=1.0152 | Eagles* δ=1.3 | Giants -2½ |
| Cardinals @ Panthers | Cardinals ρ=1.0126 | Cardinals* δ=2.8 | Panthers -2½ |
| Texans @ Titans | Texans ρ=1.0085 | Titans δ=3.8 | Titans -1½ |
Comments:
The Packers, Vikings, and Chiefs quarterback situations are all affecting the lines of their respective games. I think Chiefs @ Rams is the only one that might swing to the other team, though (unless Tom Brady gets swept out into the ocean or something).
I'm guessing Bengals -1½ is bookie speak for "we have no idea what's going to happen here, so we'll go (marginally) with the home team". (Also Saints @ Ravens and Chiefs @ Rams.)
The Dolphins have a chance to get their second home win of the season this week. But after losing at home two weeks ago to the Browns, it's not what you'd call a sure thing.
How awful are the Cardinals, that the Line doesn't even think they can beat the Panthers on the road? Of course, given that their choices for starting quarterback are Derek Anderson, John Skelton, or some guy who couldn't win a starting job in the UFL, I'm not sure how I would make a case that they're wrong.
