All Line values are from yahoo.com, except for Giants @ Packers, which is from footballlocks.com.
Game | APR | SRS | Line |
---|---|---|---|
Panthers @ Steelers | Steelers ρ=1.4076 | Steelers δ=21.6 | Steelers -14½ |
Cowboys @ Cardinals | Cowboys ρ=1.3263 | Cowboys* δ=10.6 | Cowboys -7 |
Vikings @ Eagles | Eagles ρ=1.2679 | Eagles δ=9.0 | Eagles -14 |
Patriots @ Bills | Patriots ρ=1.2448 | Patriots* δ=16.0 | Patriots -8 |
Seahawks @ Buccaneers | Buccaneers ρ=1.2053 | Buccaneers δ=6.3 | Buccaneers -6 |
Chargers @ Bengals | Chargers ρ=1.1982 | Chargers* δ=10.5 | Chargers -7½ |
Texans @ Broncos | Texans ρ=1.1742 | Texans* δ=8.4 | Texans -2½ |
Redskins @ Jaguars | Jaguars ρ=1.1322 | Jaguars δ=1.6 | Jaguars -7 |
Ravens @ Browns | Ravens ρ=1.1172 | Ravens* δ=6.2 | Ravens -3½ |
Saints @ Falcons | Falcons ρ=1.0610 | Falcons δ=3.6 | Falcons -2½ |
Colts @ Raiders | Colts ρ=1.0556 | Colts* δ=3.9 | Colts -3 |
Giants @ Packers | Packers* ρ=1.0449 | Packers δ=4.9 | Packers -3 |
Lions @ Dolphins | Dolphins* ρ=1.0352 | Dolphins δ=0.4 | Dolphins -3½ |
49ers @ Rams | 49ers ρ=1.0346 | Rams δ=0.4 | Rams -2 |
Jets @ Bears | Bears* ρ=1.0248 | Jets* δ=1.2 | Bears -1 |
Titans @ Chiefs | Titans* ρ=1.0014 | Titans* δ=3.7 | Chiefs -5 |
Comments:
Only one of yahoo's sports books has a line on the Vikings @ Eagles game. I assume because of the Vikings QB situation.
3 of the 4 prime-time games this week are the biggest mismatches of the week according to APR.
Giants @ Packers is essentially a playoff game for the Packers—they need to win out to clinch a wildcard spot.
The Colts are in a similar position—they have the tie-breaker against the Jaguars right now, but even one loss will likely give the AFC South to the Jaguars.
Every team in the NFL, except for the Dolphins, has at least two home wins. Every team with at least 7 wins has at least 4 home wins, except the Dolphins and Buccaneers.
Somehow, the Dolphins are favored to beat the resurgent Lions anyway. The Lions are better than their record, and they couldn't have asked for a better set-up to extend their winning streak to 3 games.