Wednesday, December 22, 2010

NFL: Week 16 Game Picks

All Line values are from yahoo.com, except for Giants @ Packers, which is from footballlocks.com.

GameAPRSRSLine
Panthers @
Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.4076
Steelers
δ=21.6
Steelers
-14½
Cowboys @
Cardinals
Cowboys
ρ=1.3263
Cowboys*
δ=10.6
Cowboys
-7
Vikings @
Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.2679
Eagles
δ=9.0
Eagles
-14
Patriots @
Bills
Patriots
ρ=1.2448
Patriots*
δ=16.0
Patriots
-8
Seahawks @
Buccaneers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.2053
Buccaneers
δ=6.3
Buccaneers
-6
Chargers @
Bengals
Chargers
ρ=1.1982
Chargers*
δ=10.5
Chargers
-7½
Texans @
Broncos
Texans
ρ=1.1742
Texans*
δ=8.4
Texans
-2½
Redskins @
Jaguars
Jaguars
ρ=1.1322
Jaguars
δ=1.6
Jaguars
-7
Ravens @
Browns
Ravens
ρ=1.1172
Ravens*
δ=6.2
Ravens
-3½
Saints @
Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.0610
Falcons
δ=3.6
Falcons
-2½
Colts @
Raiders
Colts
ρ=1.0556
Colts*
δ=3.9
Colts
-3
Giants @
Packers
Packers*
ρ=1.0449
Packers
δ=4.9
Packers
-3
Lions @
Dolphins
Dolphins*
ρ=1.0352
Dolphins
δ=0.4
Dolphins
-3½
49ers @
Rams
49ers
ρ=1.0346
Rams
δ=0.4
Rams
-2
Jets @
Bears
Bears*
ρ=1.0248
Jets*
δ=1.2
Bears
-1
Titans @
Chiefs
Titans*
ρ=1.0014
Titans*
δ=3.7
Chiefs
-5

Comments:

  • Only one of yahoo's sports books has a line on the Vikings @ Eagles game. I assume because of the Vikings QB situation.

  • 3 of the 4 prime-time games this week are the biggest mismatches of the week according to APR.

  • Giants @ Packers is essentially a playoff game for the Packers—they need to win out to clinch a wildcard spot.

  • The Colts are in a similar position—they have the tie-breaker against the Jaguars right now, but even one loss will likely give the AFC South to the Jaguars.

  • Every team in the NFL, except for the Dolphins, has at least two home wins. Every team with at least 7 wins has at least 4 home wins, except the Dolphins and Buccaneers.

  • Somehow, the Dolphins are favored to beat the resurgent Lions anyway. The Lions are better than their record, and they couldn't have asked for a better set-up to extend their winning streak to 3 games.