Wednesday, December 1, 2010

NFL: Week 13 Game Picks

All Line values are from yahoo.com, except Jaguars @ Titans, which is from footballlocks.com.

GameAPRSRSLine
49ers @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.2113
Packers
δ=17.5
Packers
-10
Saints @
Bengals
Saints
ρ=1.1641
Saints*
δ=5.3
Saints
-7
Rams @
Cardinals
Rams
ρ=1.1607
Rams*
δ=7.7
Rams
-3
Broncos @
Chiefs
Chiefs
ρ=1.1490
Chiefs
δ=8.2
Chiefs
-9
Bears @
Lions
Bears
ρ=1.1469
Bears*
δ=3.6
Bears
-3
Texans @
Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.1421
Eagles
δ=6.7
Eagles
-8½
Raiders @
Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.1342
Chargers
δ=7.6
Chargers
-13
Falcons @
Buccaneers
Falcons
ρ=1.1324
Falcons*
δ=9.5
Falcons
-3
Cowboys @
Colts
Colts*
ρ=1.1069
Colts
δ=6.1
Colts
-5½
Redskins @
Giants
Giants*
ρ=1.0769
Giants
δ=4.2
Giants
-7
Panthers @
Seahawks
Seahawks*
ρ=1.0631
Seahawks
δ=4.0
Seahawks
-6
Jets @
Patriots
Patriots*
ρ=1.0382
Patriots
δ=0.4
Patriots
-3½
Steelers @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.0379
Steelers*
δ=2.2
Ravens
-3
Jaguars @
Titans
Titans*
ρ=1.0285
Titans
δ=8.1
Titans
-2
Browns @
Dolphins
Dolphins*
ρ=1.0077
Dolphins
δ=1.4
Dolphins
-4½
Bills @
Vikings
Bills
ρ=1.0030
Vikings
δ=0.1
Vikings
-6½

Comments:

  • No word as I write this if Kerry Collins will be able to start Sunday for the Titans. I guess footballlocks thinks he will, as that's pretty much the only chance they have to get a win.

  • Lots of agreement again this week—only two split picks.

  • The Packers haven't lost to the 49ers in the regular season since 1990. Troy Smith will have to do a very good job at quarterback for that streak to end this year.

  • The Seahawks and Rams both have a good chance to win this week. After Sunday there should be at least one team in the NFC West that doesn't have a losing record.

  • APR and SRS both have Bills @ Vikings a very close game. The Vikings have been beating bad teams that can't get out of their own way. Getting a win in the Metrodome can be a tall order, but if the Bills are really improving, they'll have a chance.