Friday, November 19, 2010

NFL: Week 10 Strength of Schedule

Update: Thanks to the magic of JavaScript, the 'SOS Played' and 'SOS Unplayed' columns are now sortable if you are JavaScript-enabled. Just click on the link at the top of the column to sort (or reverse sort, if already sorted) on that column.

RankTeamSOS
unplayed
RankSOS
played
1Bears0.9596290.8557
2Texans0.9543160.9017
3Bengals0.937160.9236
4Bills0.933730.9438
5Panthers0.9276220.8821
6Patriots0.926590.9168
7Colts0.9214240.8735
8Dolphins0.919720.9459
9Packers0.9195180.8946
10Giants0.9122280.8632
11Vikings0.9093110.9131
12Jaguars0.9093190.8931
13Lions0.9092100.9156
14Cowboys0.9088140.9063
15Raiders0.9084260.8641
16Buccaneers0.9005300.8505
17Jets0.8996120.9101
18Redskins0.891380.9174
19Saints0.8885310.8456
20Titans0.8879170.9014
21Steelers0.882340.9321
22Eagles0.8759130.9097
23Chargers0.8757210.8834
24Chiefs0.8722250.8731
25Broncos0.869850.9248
26Browns0.869410.9481
27Rams0.8687320.8395
28Seahawks0.8619270.8633
29Ravens0.861370.9201
3049ers0.8599230.8773
31Falcons0.8344150.9029
32Cardinals0.8285200.8851

Comments:

  • I've been meaning to get to this since week 4. I finally made some time to get it done.

  • This was computed using the week 10 power rankings. The "played" SOS figure is the combination of the power for all opposing teams in games played through week 10; the "to play" is the combination of all opponents to be played. Division opponents are included twice when they appear twice.

  • If you hover over each team name, you should see (as tooltip text) the ratio of unplayed over played strength of schedule, as well as the ranking of that ratio from 1 (highest) to 32 (lowest). A high ratio means the upcoming games will be much harder; a low ratio means upcoming games should be easier.

  • Biggest swings from easiest played to hardest to play: 1) Bears, 2) Buccaneers, 3) Texans, 4) Giants, 5) Colts.

  • Biggest swings from hardest to easiest: 32) Browns, 31) Falcons, 30) Ravens, 29) Cardinals, 28) Broncos.

  • Based on this, it looks like the Falcons and Eagles have the inside track on the top two seeds in the NFC (although the Packers do have the head-to-head tie breaker over the Eagles, if it comes down to that).

  • And for the top AFC seeds, it looks like the Ravens and... who? Titans? Chiefs?! Jets? Too soon to say, I think.