From 2002-2009, a total of 12 × 8 = 96 teams have made the playoffs. Here's how playoff appearances break down according to the number of wins after Week 11:
| # of Wins | # of Teams | # in Playoffs | % in Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2 | 21 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 3 | 34 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 4 | 44 | 2 | 4.5% |
| 5 | 39 | 14 | 35.9% |
| 6 | 43 | 24 | 55.8% |
| 7 | 36 | 28 | 77.8% |
| 8 | 13 | 13 | 100.0% |
| 9 | 10 | 10 | 100.0% |
| 10 | 5 | 5 | 100.0% |
The two 4-6 teams that made the playoffs were the 2008 Chargers and 2009 Jets.
It's interesting that there seems to be a pretty well-defined "make the playoffs" cut-off in the 5-7 win range. If your team is below 5-5 (and not in a very weak division) this is not good news.
It's also interesting to look at how the number of week 11 wins corrolate to winning in the playoffs. For this table, only playoff teams are considered:
| # of Wins | # of teams in playoffs | # that won in playoffs | % that won in playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4, 5 | 16 | 11 | 68.8% |
| 6 | 24 | 9 | 37.5% |
| 7 | 28 | 14 | 50.0% |
| 8 | 13 | 8 | 61.5% |
| 9 | 10 | 7 | 70.0% |
| 10 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
Notice the sweet spot at 4 and 5 wins. I think that makes sense: in order for a 4-6 or 5-5 team to make it to the playoffs, it usually has to get on a hot streak, which translates over into the playoffs.
Perhaps the first table can explain the "sour spot" at 6 and 7 wins. Most 6- and 7-win teams end up making the playoffs, so it seems reasonable that this is where most "accidental" playoff teams are to be found—teams that stumble into the playoffs, and are thus more likely to be bounced out.
Given the lower standings this year, 2010 should see this skew at least a little lower,
