Wednesday, October 12, 2011

NFL Week 6 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Rams @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.7818
Packers
δ=27.9
Packers
-15½
Colts @
Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.3997
Bengals
δ=17.9
Bengals
-7
Browns @
Raiders
Raiders
ρ=1.3599
Raiders
δ=15.4
Raiders
-7
Bills @
Giants
Bills
ρ=1.3542
Bills*
δ=16.2
Giants
-3
Dolphins @
Jets
Jets
ρ=1.2477
Jets
δ=12.1
Jets
-7
Saints @
Buccaneers
Saints
ρ=1.2432
Saints*
δ=16.3
Saints
-4
Cowboys @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.1552
Patriots
δ=6.2
Patriots
-7
Jaguars @
Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.1450
Steelers
δ=10.5
Steelers
-13
Eagles @
Redskins
Redskins
ρ=1.1193
Redskins
δ=1.4
Eagles
-1
Vikings @
Bears
Bears
ρ=1.0727
Bears
δ=4.7
Bears
-2½
Texans @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.0711
Ravens
δ=8.3
Ravens
-8
49ers @
Lions
Lions
ρ=1.0660
49ers*
δ=0.8
Lions
-4
Panthers @
Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.0038
Panthers*
δ=4.0
Falcons
-3½

Bye: Cardinals, Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers, Seahawks, Titans

Comments:

  • Once again, the Bills are underdogs to a team that's looked really bad so far. I'm going with APR on this one. The Giants are in trouble, even if they are playing at home.

  • And the Eagles are somehow favored on the road over the Redskins? The Redskins haven't exactly been beating the class of the NFL, but they have been winning, which is more than can be said of the Eagles.

  • At 2-3, the Bears and Falcons are both on the brink of a lost season. A win this week means a 3-3 record, and a chance to claw back into contention. A loss means 2-4, and a long way back (especially for the Bears, who are already 3 games behind the Packers and Lions).

  • Who would've guessed that 49ers @ Lions would be one of the best matchups this week? One of these teams should come out of this game with a quality win, and a boost to their confidence for the stretch run to the playoffs.